Jacksonville Jaguars Fan Forums

There are a lot of conclusions we can draw about this graph, but I don't think any of them are comforting...

Where did you get that? (I know better than to ask for a link)

What I use as well as all of Wall Street is published by the St. Louis Fed and conducted by The University of Michigan. The parameters and process are well documented. Here is a link to it. Basically it shows a huge drop when Biden was elected and bottomed out at 60 just before the election. Then after is has begun to rise, currently at or around 70. It was bouncing between 90-100 during the Trump term. So, what is your point?

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UMCSENT/

(11-23-2024, 02:42 PM)Jag149 Wrote: [ -> ]Where did you get that?  (I know better than to ask for a link)

What I use as well as all of Wall Street is published by the St. Louis Fed and conducted by The University of Michigan. The parameters and process are well documented.  Here is a link to it.  Basically it shows a huge drop when Biden was elected and bottomed out at 60 just before the election. Then after is has begun to rise, currently at or around 70.  It was bouncing between 90-100 during the Trump term. So, what is your point?

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UMCSENT/

Your link doesn't break down by party affiliation.

Here's two links for you that tell some of the info, I'm sure if you dig you'll find the rest.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/poll-republic...28651.html

https://www.axios.com/2024/11/13/consume...rat-switch

(11-23-2024, 02:52 PM)mikesez Wrote: [ -> ]

(11-23-2024, 02:42 PM)Jag149 Wrote: [ -> ]Where did you get that?  (I know better than to ask for a link)

What I use as well as all of Wall Street is published by the St. Louis Fed and conducted by The University of Michigan. The parameters and process are well documented.  Here is a link to it.  Basically it shows a huge drop when Biden was elected and bottomed out at 60 just before the election. Then after is has begun to rise, currently at or around 70.  It was bouncing between 90-100 during the Trump term. So, what is your point?

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UMCSENT/

Your link doesn't break down by party affiliation.

Here's two links for you that tell some of the info, I'm sure if you dig you'll find the rest.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/poll-republic...28651.html

https://www.axios.com/2024/11/13/consume...t-republic

an-democrat-switch

Thanks for the link. I prefer thinking of the population in terms of just people. I understand you may not.  I also, try to use more politically neutral polls when available.. Nice info, but I wouldn't die on this hill or try to draw too many conclusions. After all unless you are working a campaign strategy AND have verified their process I do not see the use. 

NOTE: This is a political left leaning one. Fairly accurate but then so was the Iowa lady.  I do read Politico articles (their partner) but others as well.

Excerpt. 
These media sources have a slight to moderate liberal bias.  They often publish factual information that utilizes loaded words (wording that attempts to influence an audience by appeals to emotion or stereotypes) to favor liberal causes.  These sources are generally trustworthy for information but may require further investigation.

https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/morning-consult/

(11-23-2024, 03:41 PM)Jag149 Wrote: [ -> ]

(11-23-2024, 02:52 PM)mikesez Wrote: [ -> ]Your link doesn't break down by party affiliation.

Here's two links for you that tell some of the info, I'm sure if you dig you'll find the rest.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/poll-republic...28651.html

https://www.axios.com/2024/11/13/consume...t-republic

an-democrat-switch

Thanks for the link. I prefer thinking of the population in terms of just people. I understand you may not.  I also, try to use more politically neutral polls when available.. Nice info, but I wouldn't die on this hill or try to draw too many conclusions. After all unless you are working a campaign strategy AND have verified their process I do not see the use. 

NOTE: This is a political left leaning one. Fairly accurate but then so was the Iowa lady.  I do read Politico articles (their partner) but others as well.

Excerpt. 
These media sources have a slight to moderate liberal bias.  They often publish factual information that utilizes loaded words (wording that attempts to influence an audience by appeals to emotion or stereotypes) to favor liberal causes.  These sources are generally trustworthy for information but may require further investigation.

https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/morning-consult/

I didn't seek this info.  It popped up in another thread I was reading.

Biden ran on, in part, "Trump messed up the economy".  His voters had below average consumer sentiment the whole time Trump was in office.  Not just with Covid. When Biden won, the sentiment of his voters went up, slowly, while the sentiment of Republican voters crashed suddenly.

Now the reverse is playing out, but both changes are sudden.

Is this real? Do some people suddenly change their reported party affiliation after their party loses?  They just want to affiliate with the winner?

That seems unlikely, but at least such people seem likely to be loyal and happy.  

Or do people change their feelings about the economy based on an election outcome? That seems more likely.  And isn't that sad? It would indicate, that no matter what Biden did, Republicans would continue to say, "the Biden economy sucks." And now, no matter what Trump says, Democrats (at least the ones who want to win Democrat primaries) will say "the Trump economy sucks".

(11-23-2024, 04:06 PM)mikesez Wrote: [ -> ]

(11-23-2024, 03:41 PM)Jag149 Wrote: [ -> ]Thanks for the link. I prefer thinking of the population in terms of just people. I understand you may not.  I also, try to use more politically neutral polls when available.. Nice info, but I wouldn't die on this hill or try to draw too many conclusions. After all unless you are working a campaign strategy AND have verified their process I do not see the use. 

NOTE: This is a political left leaning one. Fairly accurate but then so was the Iowa lady.  I do read Politico articles (their partner) but others as well.

Excerpt. 
These media sources have a slight to moderate liberal bias.  They often publish factual information that utilizes loaded words (wording that attempts to influence an audience by appeals to emotion or stereotypes) to favor liberal causes.  These sources are generally trustworthy for information but may require further investigation.

https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/morning-consult/

I didn't seek this info.  It popped up in another thread I was reading.

Biden ran on, in part, "Trump messed up the economy".  His voters had below average consumer sentiment the whole time Trump was in office.  Not just with Covid. When Biden won, the sentiment of his voters went up, slowly, while the sentiment of Republican voters crashed suddenly.

Now the reverse is playing out, but both changes are sudden.

Is this real? Do some people suddenly change their reported party affiliation after their party loses?  They just want to affiliate with the winner?

That seems unlikely, but at least such people seem likely to be loyal and happy.  

Or do people change their feelings about the economy based on an election outcome? That seems more likely.  And isn't that sad? It would indicate, that no matter what Biden did, Republicans would continue to say, "the Biden economy sucks." And now, no matter what Trump says, Democrats (at least the ones who want to win Democrat primaries) will say "the Trump economy sucks".

I can't see that being likely, people view the economy based on their lives. There is no proof of it. This is much ado about nothing. You do however have the right to be sad if you want.

I'll bet that mikesez likes ven diagrams... just like his hero.

(11-23-2024, 04:15 PM)Jag149 Wrote: [ -> ]

(11-23-2024, 04:06 PM)mikesez Wrote: [ -> ]I didn't seek this info.  It popped up in another thread I was reading.

Biden ran on, in part, "Trump messed up the economy".  His voters had below average consumer sentiment the whole time Trump was in office.  Not just with Covid. When Biden won, the sentiment of his voters went up, slowly, while the sentiment of Republican voters crashed suddenly.

Now the reverse is playing out, but both changes are sudden.

Is this real? Do some people suddenly change their reported party affiliation after their party loses?  They just want to affiliate with the winner?

That seems unlikely, but at least such people seem likely to be loyal and happy.  

Or do people change their feelings about the economy based on an election outcome? That seems more likely.  And isn't that sad? It would indicate, that no matter what Biden did, Republicans would continue to say, "the Biden economy sucks." And now, no matter what Trump says, Democrats (at least the ones who want to win Democrat primaries) will say "the Trump economy sucks".

I can't see that being likely, people view the economy based on their lives. There is no proof of it. This is much ado about nothing. You do however have the right to be sad if you want.

So how do you explain the data?

(11-23-2024, 04:25 PM)mikesez Wrote: [ -> ]

(11-23-2024, 04:15 PM)Jag149 Wrote: [ -> ]I can't see that being likely, people view the economy based on their lives. There is no proof of it. This is much ado about nothing. You do however have the right to be sad if you want.

So how do you explain the data?

LOL. you want me to explain your data? You do realize my data is from the Federal Reserve right?

excerpt
 “Congress decided that it made sense to have monetary policy set by an independent institution that was not under direct political control.”
https://harvardpolitics.com/the-politics...l-reserve/

The bottom line is the consumer sentiment bounced between 95%-100% under Trump. Fell once Biden was elected bottoming out around 60%. Now after the election it is beginning to rise and is at 70%. Your "chart" is from an unofficial report by a liberal media company after the election. ... have a nice day ...

(11-23-2024, 04:44 PM)Jag149 Wrote: [ -> ]

(11-23-2024, 04:25 PM)mikesez Wrote: [ -> ]So how do you explain the data?

LOL. you want me to explain your data? You do realize my data is from the Federal Reserve right?

excerpt
 “Congress decided that it made sense to have monetary policy set by an independent institution that was not under direct political control.”
https://harvardpolitics.com/the-politics...l-reserve/

The bottom line is the consumer sentiment bounced between 95%-100% under Trump. Fell once Biden was elected bottoming out around 60%. Now after the election it is beginning to rise and is at 70%. Your "chart" is from an unofficial report by a liberal media company after the election. ... have a nice day ...

Jesus.. Dude's not having a good day at all lolol

(11-23-2024, 04:44 PM)Jag149 Wrote: [ -> ]

(11-23-2024, 04:25 PM)mikesez Wrote: [ -> ]So how do you explain the data?

LOL. you want me to explain your data? You do realize my data is from the Federal Reserve right?

excerpt
 “Congress decided that it made sense to have monetary policy set by an independent institution that was not under direct political control.”
https://harvardpolitics.com/the-politics...l-reserve/

The bottom line is the consumer sentiment bounced between 95%-100% under Trump. Fell once Biden was elected bottoming out around 60%. Now after the election it is beginning to rise and is at 70%. Your "chart" is from an unofficial report by a liberal media company after the election. ... have a nice day ...

The data from the St Louis Fed is roughly the two lines in the image I linked, added together.
I'm not asking you to explain the data you linked to.
I'm asking you to explain the data I started the thread with.

(11-23-2024, 04:59 PM)mikesez Wrote: [ -> ]

(11-23-2024, 04:44 PM)Jag149 Wrote: [ -> ]LOL. you want me to explain your data? You do realize my data is from the Federal Reserve right?

excerpt
 “Congress decided that it made sense to have monetary policy set by an independent institution that was not under direct political control.”
https://harvardpolitics.com/the-politics...l-reserve/

The bottom line is the consumer sentiment bounced between 95%-100% under Trump. Fell once Biden was elected bottoming out around 60%. Now after the election it is beginning to rise and is at 70%. Your "chart" is from an unofficial report by a liberal media company after the election. ... have a nice day ...

The data from the St Louis Fed is roughly the two lines in the image I linked, added together.
I'm not asking you to explain the data you linked to.
I'm asking you to explain the data I started the thread with.

Explain your own data.  If there was an accurate way to separate by political affiliation or it actually meant something they would have done it. Once again much ado about nothing. Maybe try a different approach?

(11-23-2024, 05:04 PM)Jag149 Wrote: [ -> ]

(11-23-2024, 04:59 PM)mikesez Wrote: [ -> ]The data from the St Louis Fed is roughly the two lines in the image I linked, added together.
I'm not asking you to explain the data you linked to.
I'm asking you to explain the data I started the thread with.

Explain your own data.  If there was an accurate way to separate by political affiliation or it actually meant something they would have done it. Once again much ado about nothing. Maybe try a different approach?

I did.  You said my explanation was unlikely.
Remember?

So, to quote myself,

Do some people suddenly change their reported party affiliation after their party loses? They just want to affiliate with the winner?

(11-23-2024, 05:30 PM)mikesez Wrote: [ -> ]

(11-23-2024, 05:04 PM)Jag149 Wrote: [ -> ]Explain your own data.  If there was an accurate way to separate by political affiliation or it actually meant something they would have done it. Once again much ado about nothing. Maybe try a different approach?

I did.  You said my explanation was unlikely.
Remember?

So, to quote myself,

Do some people suddenly change their reported party affiliation after their party loses?  They just want to affiliate with the winner?

Yep, unlikely. Glad we could agree. As for the affiliation thing there was no data.  Straws grasping you ....

(11-23-2024, 04:06 PM)mikesez Wrote: [ -> ]

(11-23-2024, 03:41 PM)Jag149 Wrote: [ -> ]Thanks for the link. I prefer thinking of the population in terms of just people. I understand you may not.  I also, try to use more politically neutral polls when available.. Nice info, but I wouldn't die on this hill or try to draw too many conclusions. After all unless you are working a campaign strategy AND have verified their process I do not see the use. 

NOTE: This is a political left leaning one. Fairly accurate but then so was the Iowa lady.  I do read Politico articles (their partner) but others as well.

Excerpt. 
These media sources have a slight to moderate liberal bias.  They often publish factual information that utilizes loaded words (wording that attempts to influence an audience by appeals to emotion or stereotypes) to favor liberal causes.  These sources are generally trustworthy for information but may require further investigation.

https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/morning-consult/

I didn't seek this info.  It popped up in another thread I was reading.

Biden ran on, in part, "Trump messed up the economy".  His voters had below average consumer sentiment the whole time Trump was in office.  Not just with Covid. When Biden won, the sentiment of his voters went up, slowly, while the sentiment of Republican voters crashed suddenly.

Now the reverse is playing out, but both changes are sudden.

Is this real? Do some people suddenly change their reported party affiliation after their party loses?  They just want to affiliate with the winner?

That seems unlikely, but at least such people seem likely to be loyal and happy.  

Or do people change their feelings about the economy based on an election outcome? That seems more likely.  And isn't that sad? It would indicate, that no matter what Biden did, Republicans would continue to say, "the Biden economy sucks." And now, no matter what Trump says, Democrats (at least the ones who want to win Democrat primaries) will say "the Trump economy sucks".

Yes, that, obviously.  The answers to the poll are driven by partisanship.  And the partisan media, feeding the partisanship to their viewers.  

The graph shows that people flip their view of the economy based on whether their party is in power.  I think it shows how easily led people are.  My guess is that now that Trump is in power, the conservative media will say the economy is great, and the liberal media will say the economy is bad.  The partisan media will flip their view of the economy, and their viewers will follow along, like sheep.

(11-24-2024, 08:42 AM)The Real Marty Wrote: [ -> ]

(11-23-2024, 04:06 PM)mikesez Wrote: [ -> ]I didn't seek this info.  It popped up in another thread I was reading.

Biden ran on, in part, "Trump messed up the economy".  His voters had below average consumer sentiment the whole time Trump was in office.  Not just with Covid. When Biden won, the sentiment of his voters went up, slowly, while the sentiment of Republican voters crashed suddenly.

Now the reverse is playing out, but both changes are sudden.

Is this real? Do some people suddenly change their reported party affiliation after their party loses?  They just want to affiliate with the winner?

That seems unlikely, but at least such people seem likely to be loyal and happy.  

Or do people change their feelings about the economy based on an election outcome? That seems more likely.  And isn't that sad? It would indicate, that no matter what Biden did, Republicans would continue to say, "the Biden economy sucks." And now, no matter what Trump says, Democrats (at least the ones who want to win Democrat primaries) will say "the Trump economy sucks".

Yes, that, obviously.  The answers to the poll are driven by partisanship.  And the partisan media, feeding the partisanship to their viewers.  

The graph shows that people flip their view of the economy based on whether their party is in power.  I think it shows how easily led people are.  My guess is that now that Trump is in power, the conservative media will say the economy is great, and the liberal media will say the economy is bad.  The partisan media will flip their view of the economy, and their viewers will follow along, like sheep.

Thanks Marty.  I agree.
It won't be long before posters here start celebrating the Trump economy even though little will change from the Biden economy, at least at first.