Posted this in another thread but I judge a QB on 4 categories
Depending on how many of these things you can do is how good of a QB I consider you
>4300 yards in a season 7 qbs accomplished this
>27 Tds 12 qbs accomplished this
<13 Ints or a 2:1 td:int ratio Of the 12 qbs with 27tds 10 managed < or = to 13
>63% completion Half the starters in the league do this
4 qbs did all of these things last year Brees, Rivers, Brady, Palmer
This gives you 5 categories of QBs
4/4 elite
3/4 above average
2/4 average
1/4 below average
0/4 worst in the league
Does anyone else have ways to consider what tier your QB falls in?
YPA.
I bet Gabbert will dink and dunk all year.
It's all about touchdowns. It's the least deceiving stat. TDs are always hard, even in garbage time.
Quote:YPA.
I bet Gabbert will dink and dunk all year.
ya anything north of 7 ypa
Quote:It's all about touchdowns. It's the least deceiving stat. TDs are always hard, even in garbage time.
Thats true. Tds are more valuable the less interceptions you have. So I think those two go together.
Quote:ya anything north of 7 ypa
Thats true. Tds are more valuable the less interceptions you have. So I think those two go together.
I don't think they are that closely related. For instance: Increasing attempts can possibly increase yards. Decreasing attempts can possibly increase completion percentage. You can possibly have the best YPA and score no points. There is nothing that you can manipulate to statistically increase TDs. A gunslinger isn't a gunslinger because he throws a bunch of interceptions. He's a gunslinger when he can throw a lot of touchdowns. Increasing interceptions does not necessarily increase TDs. You never see a QB who throws 35 TDs but 55 INTs, because TDs don't get much easier by adding attempts. Either you are good at it or you are not.
I believer when you throw TDs, the rest of the stats eventually fall in place.
Quote:I don't think they are that closely related. For instance: Increasing attempts can possibly increase yards. Decreasing attempts can possibly increase completion percentage. You can possibly have the best YPA and score no points. There is nothing that you can manipulate to statistically increase TDs. A gunslinger isn't a gunslinger because he throws a bunch of interceptions. He's a gunslinger when he can throw a lot of touchdowns. Increasing interceptions does not necessarily increase TDs. You never see a QB who throws 35 TDs but 55 INTs, because TDs don't get much easier by adding attempts. Either you are good at it or you are not.
I believer when you throw TDs, the rest of the stats eventually fall in place.
i get what you are saying. I guess why I say they go together is lets do a number system
Say each TD is worth 10 points
if you have a 1:1 TD:INT ration your td is now only worth 5 points
2:1 td is worth 7
3:1 td is worth 8
This is just a blanket example. But yes Tds are hard to get and don't necessarily get easier but if you are throwing a bunch of interceptions to get tds the tds are less valuable
Thats why I think the TD:INT ratio is important
frequent check downs, batted balls, calling timeout after a timeout.
I was never a believer in YPA, probably because I was trying to defend Gabbert. But it is pretty indicative of a good qb.
Quote:i get what you are saying. I guess why I say they go together is lets do a number system
Say each TD is worth 10 points
if you have a 1:1 TD:INT ration your td is now only worth 5 points
2:1 td is worth 7
3:1 td is worth 8
This is just a blanket example. But yes Tds are hard to get and don't necessarily get easier but if you are throwing a bunch of interceptions to get tds the tds are less valuable
Thats why I think the TD:INT ratio is important
People have actually done this research and come up with a formula that looks like it works pretty darn well. It's called ANY/A.
adjusted net yards per passing attempt: (pass yards + 20*(pass TD) - 45*(interceptions thrown) - sack yards)/(passing attempts + sacks)
Quote:People have actually done this research and come up with a formula that looks like it works pretty darn well. It's called ANY/A.
adjusted net yards per passing attempt: (pass yards + 20*(pass TD) - 45*(interceptions thrown) - sack yards)/(passing attempts + sacks)
Can you show the rankings of qbs from last year using this stat?
Quote:Can you show the rankings of qbs from last year using this stat?
<a class="bbc_url" href='http://www.sportingcharts.com/nfl/stats/player-adjusted-net-yards-per-attempt-statistics/2015/'>http://www.sportingcharts.com/nfl/stats/player-adjusted-net-yards-per-attempt-statistics/2015/</a>
Quote:<a class="bbc_url" href='http://www.sportingcharts.com/nfl/stats/player-adjusted-net-yards-per-attempt-statistics/2015/'>http://www.sportingcharts.com/nfl/stats/player-adjusted-net-yards-per-attempt-statistics/2015/</a>
Players in the top 16 who surprised me: cam, cousins, Taylor, cutler, Smith, and McCown.
Players in the bottom 16 who surprised me: Stafford, Ryan, and Rodgers.
Whether they win games or not.
Quote:Players in the top 16 who surprised me: cam, cousins, Taylor, cutler, Smith, and McCown.
Players in the bottom 16 who surprised me: Stafford, Ryan, and Rodgers.
It also ranks Foles ahead of Peyton in 2013 when Peyton threw 5477 yards and 55 tds...
Quote:Players in the top 16 who surprised me: cam, cousins, Taylor, cutler, Smith, and McCown.
Players in the bottom 16 who surprised me: Stafford, Ryan, and Rodgers.
Stafford and Ryan had off-years last season and Rodgers had the injury bug at WR, but yeah a bit surprising.
Quote:People have actually done this research and come up with a formula that looks like it works pretty darn well. It's called ANY/A.
adjusted net yards per passing attempt: (pass yards + 20*(pass TD) - 45*(interceptions thrown) - sack yards)/(passing attempts + sacks)
I don't know if I buy into this, I'd like to create another stat basically saying how much an offense was helped by the running game based off play action success rate and rushing offense rank.
Quote:People have actually done this research and come up with a formula that looks like it works pretty darn well. It's called ANY/A.
adjusted net yards per passing attempt: (pass yards + 20*(pass TD) - 45*(interceptions thrown) - sack yards)/(passing attempts + sacks)
That looks like a made up mess.
Quote:People have actually done this research and come up with a formula that looks like it works pretty darn well. It's called ANY/A.
adjusted net yards per passing attempt: (pass yards + 20*(pass TD) - 45*(interceptions thrown) - sack yards)/(passing attempts + sacks)
It weighs interceptions more than twice as much as TDs. I don't agree.
Quote:That looks like a made up mess.
What about this one?
(pass yards + 20*(pass TD) - 45*(interceptions thrown) - sack yards)/(passing attempts + sacks) * 0 + (pass TD)