04-04-2017, 04:59 PM
Most mocks have the considered top QBs in this draft generally going in the mid 1st round through the early 2nd round (based mostly on ranked value across all positions). These mocks have ignored the supply shortage for the single most impactful position in the NFL.
There were 21 starting QBs in 2016 that were drafted by their team. Of these QBs, 12 were 1st rounders, 3 were taken in the 2nd, 2 in the 3rd, 2 in the 4th, 0 in the 5th, and 1 each in the 6th and 7th. The teams' GMs understand that the highest likelihood or odds of gaining a starting caliber QB is to get one with 1st round talent. The odds of a QB available after the 1st round becoming a successful starting one diminishes substantially. Counting on the following year's expensive and limited free agent QB crop, or an unknown draft position, is an undesirable plan B.
In using CBS Sports's overall and positional rankings, they have 1st round grades on only 3 QBs this year, namely Trubisky (12th prospect overall), Watson (17th overall), and Mahomes (29th). Via Daniel Jeremiah's Top 50 ranking, only Kizer (15th), Trubisky (31st), and Watson (32nd) make his list. Assuming these media and analyst/scout rankings hold some credibility, it appears this draft has only 3-4 1st round QB talents (or "The Higher Probability Supply").
In reviewing teams with med/high to high need for a QB, there seems to be about 9-10 teams. The high ones include Cleveland, Houston, San Francisco, and NYJ. Other ones with med/high need (with a marginal or unproven QB, or with an aging one needing replacement soon) include Arizona, KC, Washington (Cousin tagged 2nd time), Chicago (Glennon 3yr deal structured with 1yr favorable out), LA, and possibly Buffalo. That is a number of QB-needy teams far exceeding the targeted supply noted above.
This year, once again, I would speculate that the 3-4 QBs with 1st round talent will be taken earlier than currently anticipated, and possible trades, as these QB-needy GMs will do what it takes to get a starting caliber QB.
There were 21 starting QBs in 2016 that were drafted by their team. Of these QBs, 12 were 1st rounders, 3 were taken in the 2nd, 2 in the 3rd, 2 in the 4th, 0 in the 5th, and 1 each in the 6th and 7th. The teams' GMs understand that the highest likelihood or odds of gaining a starting caliber QB is to get one with 1st round talent. The odds of a QB available after the 1st round becoming a successful starting one diminishes substantially. Counting on the following year's expensive and limited free agent QB crop, or an unknown draft position, is an undesirable plan B.
In using CBS Sports's overall and positional rankings, they have 1st round grades on only 3 QBs this year, namely Trubisky (12th prospect overall), Watson (17th overall), and Mahomes (29th). Via Daniel Jeremiah's Top 50 ranking, only Kizer (15th), Trubisky (31st), and Watson (32nd) make his list. Assuming these media and analyst/scout rankings hold some credibility, it appears this draft has only 3-4 1st round QB talents (or "The Higher Probability Supply").
In reviewing teams with med/high to high need for a QB, there seems to be about 9-10 teams. The high ones include Cleveland, Houston, San Francisco, and NYJ. Other ones with med/high need (with a marginal or unproven QB, or with an aging one needing replacement soon) include Arizona, KC, Washington (Cousin tagged 2nd time), Chicago (Glennon 3yr deal structured with 1yr favorable out), LA, and possibly Buffalo. That is a number of QB-needy teams far exceeding the targeted supply noted above.
This year, once again, I would speculate that the 3-4 QBs with 1st round talent will be taken earlier than currently anticipated, and possible trades, as these QB-needy GMs will do what it takes to get a starting caliber QB.