Jacksonville Jaguars Fan Forums

Started out at 6 but betting on over pushed it to 6.5

We are doomed. Another 5-11 season.

Quote:Started out at 6 but betting on over pushed it to 6.5

So this means a lot of people have been betting the over correct? 

Is this recent? Post schedule release?

Quote:So this means a lot of people have been betting the over correct? 

Yes, which is to be expected considering how many media figures are picking the Jaguars as their surprise playoff team for this year. I'm honestly surprised the betting started at 6 wins. 

Unfortunately I agree. 

Vegas is pretty dead on.


Look for us to be 6-9 going into the last game of the season

What were the odds last year? I feel like they are pretty legit every year.

Quote:What were the odds last year? I feel like they are pretty legit every year.

<a class="bbc_url" href='http://www.footballlocks.com/nfl_season_win_total_futures_lines.shtml'>http://www.footballlocks.com/nfl_season_win_total_futures_lines.shtml</a>



5.5 last year. Looks like they are playing it safe.

6.5 seems about right. The team should have the talent to easily win more games than that, just like last year's team should have easily won more than 5.5 games, but the Jaguars have come up short of the vegas line several years in a row. Until they're rid of Sprinkles the safer bet looks like the under.

Quote:So this means a lot of people have been betting the over correct? 

Is this recent? Post schedule release?

Yes people betting over more than under so line moves to try to make sure to cover.

Yes line from 4/14 but Vegas and everyone already knew all teams Jags were playing just didn't know actual dates until yesterday. Movement was more about betting trends.

Quote:<a class="bbc_url" href='http://www.footballlocks.com/nfl_season_win_total_futures_lines.shtml'>http://www.footballlocks.com/nfl_season_win_total_futures_lines.shtml</a>



5.5 last year. Looks like they are playing it safe.

 

So after BB5 Jags QB record breaking season, with 2 WRs having over 1000 yds receiving, getting Malik Jackson from the Super Bowl winning Broncos, adding a few more FA during FA period AND firing the DC because the defense under-performed last season, Las Vegas puts the over/under for wins at just one more win then last years over/under?

 

Sounds about right, I mean they were right on with last years line at 5.5.

 

Meyers missed FGs in that clots game really made some bettors happy and left others very disappointed.

Quote:So after BB5 Jags QB record breaking season, with 2 WRs having over 1000 yds receiving, getting Malik Jackson from the Super Bowl winning Broncos, adding a few more FA during FA period AND firing the DC because the defense under-performed last season, Las Vegas puts the over/under for wins at just one more win then last years over/under?

 

Sounds about right, I mean they were right on with last years line at 5.5.

 

Meyers missed FGs in that clots game really made some bettors happy and left others very disappointed.

And then you realized the coaching staff here is still largely unproven as a collective staff. There is no denying Gus has hindered the team in plenty of critical situations(his clock management and some of his challenges are jaw dropping bad), just like we didn't have any talent his 1st 2 seasons here. This is supposed to be the payoff year. I am hoping he proves my perception of him wrong. Go Jags. 

Just remember, the line is not a prediction of how many wins we are going to have.   The line is a prediction of how many wins the bettors think we will have.   They're just trying to split the bets evenly.   We're not a popular team, so we will inevitably be undervalued.  

 

At least, this is what I am telling myself. 

If you take emotion out of it, it's a good line. Nobody would take that bet without doubt crossing their mind. Gus is the key here.

Quote:So after BB5 Jags QB record breaking season, with 2 WRs having over 1000 yds receiving, getting Malik Jackson from the Super Bowl winning Broncos, adding a few more FA during FA period AND firing the DC because the defense under-performed last season, Las Vegas puts the over/under for wins at just one more win then last years over/under?

 

Sounds about right, I mean they were right on with last years line at 5.5.

 

Meyers missed FGs in that clots game really made some bettors happy and left others very disappointed.

 

You know, the line would probably be much higher if the above bolded had resulted in the team actually beating last year's preseason line against a historically easy schedule.

 

The Jaguars need to make big changes, and they've [BLEEP] their progress by doubling down on the same loser for another wasted season.

 

If the Jaguars had lured Harbaugh away from Michigan the line would probably be around 9.5 wins and people would be talking about the team being a chic pick to go to the Superbowl now that they have a real coach. Instead the line is 6.5 wins with a bunch of pro bowl level talent and the talking heads are talking about maybe making the playoffs in one of the NFL's weakest divisions, but not feeling sure about it.

Keep in mind guys, we should have lost the Ravens game if it weren't for a ref error. The line is essentially 2 games more than what we should have won last year.

Quote:Keep in mind guys, we should have lost the Ravens game if it weren't for a ref error. The line is essentially 2 games more than what we should have won last year.

Haha really? What about the Colts game? We missed 2 GW field goals... What about the jets game? If we recovered that fumble with a minute left at the 50 yard like we could have won.. Falcons game? Couldn't complete final drive to win..


So many situations. Anything can happen.

Quote:Keep in mind guys, we should have lost the Ravens game if it weren't for a ref error. The line is essentially 2 games more than what we should have won last year.

Well, we lost the Jets game because of the officials, so it evens out.

Vegas was smart to put it at 6.5 games IMO,, for betting purposes.


If they had set 7.5 or 8 games, people would overwhelmingly bet the under.


If they had set 5.5 or 6 games, people would overwhelmingly bet the over.


I think it's about right for a betting line.

It's about the right line I think.  An even better/riskier bet would be an over/under on the Jaguars being above or below .500 at the end of the season.  As a fan I would take the over on such a bet, but there is no real data to justify it at this time.