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It seems that right now he is polling high enough to take all, or at least the majority of Utah's delegates tomorrow.

 

If polling is correct, Cruz can actually win enough votes to take all of the state's delegates and put a serious dent in Trump's chances.

 

Add in the fact that Mitt Romney has been calling for people to back Cruz in the state.  Even though Romney doesn't outright endorse Trump, he does have a lot of influence in the state.  Also, the state's republican leadership is backing Cruz including the Governor.

 

A few interesting quotes from the article.

Quote: 

The Y2 Analytics survey shows Cruz with 53 percent support among likely Republican caucus-goes and if that matches Tuesday's caucus vote, he'd win all of the state's 40 GOP delegates.

 

Coming in second is Ohio Gov. John Kasich with 29 percent, while Trump, the national front-runner, was a distant third at 11 percent.

 
This is the first poll released in the state in over a month, and the only one since the field narrowed to just three candidates.
 
It showed that Cruz performed even better among "very likely" caucus attendees, coming in at 57 percent.
 
 

Scott Riding with Y2 Analytics said it appears that a bulk of Florida Sen. Marco Rubio's supporters went to Cruz after he dropped out earlier this week.
 

<p class="" style="color:rgb(0,0,0);font-family:Arial, 'HelveticaNeue-Light', 'Helvetica Neue Light', 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, 'Lucida Grande', sans-serif;">The poll found that 81 percent of respondents said the Republican Party had gotten off on the wrong track and 64 percent said Trump would make the party weaker if he became the nominee.

<p class="" style="color:rgb(0,0,0);font-family:Arial, 'HelveticaNeue-Light', 'Helvetica Neue Light', 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, 'Lucida Grande', sans-serif;">Only 29 percent of the respondents promised to vote for Trump in a general election, while 25 percent said they would write in another candidate, 15 percent said they'd vote for a third-party candidate and 7 percent said they'd back the Democrat.


 

 

I can see this being the beginning of a trend.

Utah isn't exactly a good gauge for the rest of the country.

Quote:Utah isn't exactly a good gauge for the rest of the country.

 

However, look at the math.

 

Delegates needed to win nomination - 1237

Delegates available - 946

 

Delegates for Trump - 680

Delegates for Cruz - 424

 

Delegates needed by Trump - 557

Delegates needed by Cruz - 813

 

If Cruz manages to win all of Utah's 40 delegates, that not only leaves the pool of available delegates much lower at 906, but it would also reduce his number of delegates needed to win to 773.  That closes the gap between him and Trump almost ensuring either a contested convention or the slight possibility of a Cruz win outright.

 

I can certainly see the remaining states trending this way.

I don't see Cruz winning anything in the Northeast, but go ahead and hope for that

Quote:I can certainly see the remaining states trending this way.

I think the point here is that an overtly religious state voting for a candidate with overtly religious political positions may not be indicative of the voting preferences elsewhere. 

Quote:I don't see Cruz winning anything in the Northeast, but go ahead and hope for that

 

The thing is, he doesn't have to win.  He just needs to take delegates whether it's him or Kasich.  Him winning enough delegates to get the nomination is by far a long shot, but the most likely certainty is there will be no candidate going into the convention with enough delegates to win.

 

Quote:I think the point here is that an overtly religious state voting for a candidate with overtly religious political positions may not be indicative of the voting preferences elsewhere. 

 

I don't think that it has to do with religion as much as you look at it.  I think that it's more of the actual republican party waking up and voting against Donald Trump.

 

As I've stated before and will say it again, even though he is in the lead, he doesn't have the majority of his party behind him.  Now that the field is narrowed down, the real support (or lack thereof) is coming out.

 

Where is the support from people that were behind other candidates?  Where do people that supported Marco Rubio, Carly Fiorina, Jeb Bush, Ben Carson, etc. put their support now?  It's looking like it's most certainly not Trump.  Utah is a traditionally red state, and it is not because of religion.

 

What will be interesting to see is how Arizona votes tomorrow.

Trump is ahead in az. Youre right, getting over 50 in utah would be huge for him.


1.) 1 state doesnt necessarily mean a trend.


2.) trump is in the lead in az and is still leading throughout the ne corridor.


3.) if the delegates already apportioned had been weighted with the same percentage of winner take all states as there are in those remaining trump would have already been called as the noninee.


4.) california is still out there with 172 winner take all and thats trending towards the donald.


5.) before rubio dropped out donnie was flirting with the high high 40s nationally.


6.) and most importantly ted cruz is still mathematically alive to a.) hit 1237 or b.) finish with the most delegates c.) end in a virtual tie with trump. At such time that becomes impossible for cruz to finish within a hundred or so delegates of trump i dont think he would continue his campaign just so mitt romney and the gang can shove in jeb/kasich/ryan.

Mormons voting for a liar. That is kind of ironic.

Quote: 

I don't think that it has to do with religion as much as you look at it.  I think that it's more of the actual republican party waking up and voting against Donald Trump.

 

 



 

Bro, I know you (and the Republican Establishment, frankly) would love for this to be the turning point for Ted Cruz's campaign. However, in the world of reality, it will not. Everyone expects Utah to go to Ted Cruz, much like the rest of the highly evangelical mid-west states such as Wyoming and Idaho did.

 

Even with Trump losing Utah, he is still nearly guaranteed to earn his delegate count. If he does come up short by, lets say even 100 delegates, I can guarantee you that they will not deny Trump the nomination. The risk of destroying the party won't be worth it, even for the crazy establishment.

 

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/....html?_r=0

 


<p class="">"Donald J. Trump’s series of victories on Tuesday extended his delegate lead and forced Senator Marco Rubio of Florida out of the presidential race. Mr. Trump’s path to winning enough delegates to secure the Republican nomination is not assured, but he is in a strong position.

<p class=""> 


Here are some ways the Republican nominating contest could unfold. Try adjusting the sliders to see how the outcomes change. Each line in the chart represents one possible outcome.

 



 

After Tuesday’s contests, no other candidate retains a real chance of capturing the delegates required to win the nomination outright. Mr. Rubio dropped out, Gov. John Kasich of Ohio is too far behind, and Senator Ted Cruz of Texas would need to win the vast majority of the remaining delegates — a near impossibility."

Quote:Mormons voting for a liar. That is kind of ironic.

 

They have no choice.

Quote:Mormons voting for a liar. That is kind of ironic.

Trump isn't a liar?

 

Quote:Trump isn't a liar?

Trump tells the truth even when it isn't good for his campaign. Cruz is a flat out liar. I mean just look at the guy. He LOOKS like a liar.


What exactly has Trump lied about?

I'm not sure either would be trustworthy to be honest. What a dreadful set of options. Cruz, trump or Clinton? Terrible

Quote:It seems that right now he is polling high enough to take all, or at least the majority of Utah's delegates tomorrow.

 

If polling is correct, Cruz can actually win enough votes to take all of the state's delegates and put a serious dent in Trump's chances.

 

Add in the fact that Mitt Romney has been calling for people to back Cruz in the state.  Even though Romney doesn't outright endorse Trump, he does have a lot of influence in the state.  Also, the state's republican leadership is backing Cruz including the Governor.

 

A few interesting quotes from the article.

 

I can see this being the beginning of a trend.

 

Marco Rubio has family there, combined with Mitt Romney's Mormon endorsement & Rubio's of Cruz that is why he's doing so well there in the polls.

 

It wont matter if Cruz does win Utah, Trump will win the entire east coast (except Maine) combined with California he has enough delegates to win.

Quote:Trump tells the truth even when it isn't good for his campaign. Cruz is a flat out liar. I mean just look at the guy. He LOOKS like a liar.


What exactly has Trump lied about?

<a class="bbc_url" href='http://www.politifact.com/personalities/donald-trump/statements/?page=1'>http://www.politifact.com/personalities/donald-trump/statements/?page=1</a>


Just a start. I didn't go through the whole 8 pages of fractured fairy tales but he has a well documented history of being full of [BLEEP].

Which politician has ever told the truth always? 


I think Donald Trumps unscripted 'from the heart' speeches are refreshing and aid in his support, but I dont think many would say that he's a 100% honest.

Quote:Which politician has ever told the truth always?


I think Donald Trumps unscripted 'from the heart' speeches are refreshing and aid in his support, but I dont think many would say that he's a 100% honest.

I would say he is worse than his competition because he just doubles down on the lie. His competition just gives half [BLEEP] apologies knowing they were caught up in a lie. Both approaches are garbage but committing to the lie helps no one.

Quote:Trump tells the truth even when it isn't good for his campaign. Cruz is a flat out liar. I mean just look at the guy. He LOOKS like a liar.


What exactly has Trump lied about?

 

He also looks like he has a weird dungeon where he does strange things

Quote:He also looks like he has a weird dungeon where he does strange things

 

At least we know it is the greatest dungeon the world has ever seen.

Quote:At least we know it is the greatest dungeon the world has ever seen.

 

if by greatest you mean creepiest

 

dude's a creep. only creeps vote for this creep.