With the Jaguars additions to the secondary, added pressure up front and the promise of an increased role for Myles Jack, it's not unreasonable to anticipate a drop in points per game allowed.
I'm optimistically thinking they improve to under 21 ppg and perhaps just squeak into the top ten in that category.
20.6 is my prediction.
Thoughts?
I say 21.5 because they will be in a division with Luck, Mariota, and Romo.
FYI, 21.5 would be a great improvement and should get them to 10-6 or 9-7.
I'm saying 20. A 5 point bump from last year, less than a TD, more than a fg. Sounds good.
I expect the defense to improve but with Bortles still at QB I'm not sure how much that number comes down. If we get 2nd year Blake, I think 20 is achievable.
20.485
This was not an option on your poll choices.
I would just like to point out, points given up per game is not a defensive statistic. It's a team statistic that includes a lot of points that are scored when the defense is not even on the field.
For example, the Jaguars "points scored against" last year was 25 points per game, but that includes 1 punt return TD, and 3 interception return TDs. It's also skewed by an offense that did not control the ball and so did not keep the opposing offense off the field.
The length of the average drive by our opposition last year was 26.8 yards, which was 5th shortest in the NFL. Total yards given up was top-6. Yards per play was also top-6.
Bottom line, there is no NFL statistic for "points given up by defense." It doesn't exist. The only official stat for "points given up" is points given up by the entire team. I'm just pointing that out because people use points-given-up to criticize our defense, and it's not a valid criticism.
I agree with 20.6. That's a pretty good guess.
Quote:With the Jaguars additions to the secondary, added pressure up front and the promise of an increased role for Myles Jack, it's not unreasonable to anticipate a drop in points per game allowed.
Thoughts?
In addition to the factors you named, I would add, a better running game that controls the ball and keeps the other team off the field.
The pieces on the back end have to gel; communication is key for pass coverage (pre-excusing Jagly). DL incomers, less of an issue; line up, beat your man. I think just over 21 which will be major
Quote:In addition to the factors you named, I would add, a better running game that controls the ball and keeps the other team off the field.
Yes. ^ Absolutely expected to be a contributing factor in my mind as well.
18, jags d, especially the secondary is not terrible no more.
I may be a little bit optimistic, but I chose Blank #2.
All shut outs. 0 points allowed.
20.5 as that would put them right about 10th in the league based off of last year's statistics. Offense shouldn't be as putrid and Bortles won't have a long leash if he doesn't improve from last season. Defense obviously had an influx of talent and I think the scheme will take better advantage of the players strengths.
Quote:With the Jaguars additions to the secondary, added pressure up front and the promise of an increased role for Myles Jack, it's not unreasonable to anticipate a drop in points per game allowed.
I'm optimistically thinking they improve to under 21 ppg and perhaps just squeak into the top ten in that category.
20.6 is my prediction.
Thoughts?
I am thinking we will drop to 19.0 and be top 5.
Quote:I would just like to point out, points given up per game is not a defensive statistic. It's a team statistic that includes a lot of points that are scored when the defense is not even on the field.
For example, the Jaguars "points scored against" last year was 25 points per game, but that includes 1 punt return TD, and 3 interception return TDs. It's also skewed by an offense that did not control the ball and so did not keep the opposing offense off the field.
The length of the average drive by our opposition last year was 26.8 yards, which was 5th shortest in the NFL. Total yards given up was top-6. Yards per play was also top-6.
Bottom line, there is no NFL statistic for "points given up by defense." It doesn't exist. The only official stat for "points given up" is points given up by the entire team. I'm just pointing that out because people use points-given-up to criticize our defense, and it's not a valid criticism.
I agree with 20.6. That's a pretty good guess.
I agree with your point about points scored when the defense is not on the field. Those 4 touchdowns you highlighted resulted in 28 points, or almost 2 points against our 25 point average. However, other teams also had points scored against them while the defense was not on the field, although, admittedly, the Jags probably led the league in that category.
With the new toys, I voted an optimistic 19.5. That is assuming we get anything close to an offense capable of moving the ball on the ground.
I am going with 21.0 PPG because it's a team statistic and I still expect Bonehead Bortles to be Bonehead Bortles at times. Obviously, not as much as his last three years since he's got a lot on the line in 2017. But I think he'll still have an occasional fumble or interception that leads to points here and there throughout the season. I think that's a fair guess.
We allowed 25.0 PPG last year. Bortles and the rest of the offense certainly didn't help this average. Expecting a better running game and more time management on the offense. And with less turnovers hopefully a +4.0 PPG average is the result of that. With that said. Just on paper right now our 2017 schedule does look soft. Cracking 19.5 - 20.0 may not be completely out of the realm of possibilities.
We play the tinhorns twice who have a shaky QB situation. They could honestly be flirting with the basement in the AFC South this season coming up because of this. Unless they land Romo and IF, and that's a huge IF he can stay upright and healthy.
We play the L.A Rams. We do play Rivers. He usually pistol whips us no matter what. We play Wilson with SEA. We have ARZ with an aging Palmer who is just about done. The Jets with their QB situation? The Browns? Enough said. San Francisco? No QB at the moment.
I have to tell you. Other than Big Ben, Luck (to an extent) and Mariota (to an extent) because we split the series with them both last year, along with Wilson and maybe Dalton and Flacco. This looks like a pretty winnable year for our team right now. I don't feel any doom and gloom looking at these games.
If we can't win 7 games this year this team SUCKS. 7 wins is a reasonable expectation. 8 & 8 or even 9 - 7 SHOULD even be a serious option and discussion on the table in 2017 if they cut HALF of Blake's turnovers away and control the clock and tempo on the ground while the defense improves.
When you load up and still expect average as the ceiling. #BecauseJags
Painful