Quote:I think back to what Ketchman once said regarding statistics in general; I'm paraphrasing a bit here but it's along the lines of "I've been watching football long enough that I don't need statistics to show me what my eyes are telling me."
If you need some funky number to help you figure out how to watch Bortles second half last week, then you probably aren't watching football correctly.
THIS.
Stats are skewed by EVERYTHING.
A QBs stats are directly linked to the Oline and WR (and RBs and TEs)
If they drop a pass, it reflects negatively on the QB. If they miss a block, the QB is hurried into a poor throw, etc. etc.
High completion % can be had by throwing 30 passes a game under 10 yards.
RBs can only get so many yards on their legs alone, they need a line to block, wide outs to block...
Stats are only part of a tale. And truly a smaller part of REAL football.
Stats are much more important in fantasy football.
Quote:THIS.
Stats are skewed by EVERYTHING.
A QBs stats are directly linked to the Oline and WR (and RBs and TEs)
If they drop a pass, it reflects negatively on the QB. If they miss a block, the QB is hurried into a poor throw, etc. etc.
High completion % can be had by throwing 30 passes a game under 10 yards.
RBs can only get so many yards on their legs alone, they need a line to block, wide outs to block...
Stats are only part of a tale. And truly a smaller part of REAL football.
Stats are much more important in fantasy football.
Yup! A lot of folks like to throw around the line about "football is the ultimate team sport!" but seem to miss the concept that that means that a lot of moving parts go into making even the simplest football play function correctly. And the bulk of most football statistics are tied into the teamwork in an almost inseparable way.
Now, when folks try to isolate out a player and throw a statistic on his performance, think the QBR or a PFF grade, they are missing what I think is really the most important aspect of the play; what was he
supposed to do? Blocking schemes on an NFL level are crazily complicated and often change from play to play. It's not simply "find your man, hit your man" although that is a part of it. The count can change based on a ton of things and that's just the line. Next, how much freedom is a player given
on that specific play? Is he allowed a Run-Pass option? Is he allowed to run? Does he have more than one passing option? Did he overload a blocker to a side and cover a wideout?
These kinds of things are what prompted Jim Mora Jr to tell a group of media personnel that unless you are there every day while the teams plays are developed and the individual gameplan is set up, "you don't know. You don't know and you never will."
While I applaud the effort behind the folks trying to develop the statistic, I sometimes wonder if they aren't simply chasing a dragon that they're never going to catch.
I don't get the reliance on/obsession with PFF, to be honest.
If they don't know what a player is supposed to do on a given play under a particular set of circumstances, how can they give an accurate grade on their performance?
Bortles was responsible for 4 TDs last Sunday, three passing and one rushing.
How in the world the analytics could have him as one of the lowest rated QBs is beyond me.
Football Outsiders show again why I like their stats; they really match up with what I see on the field. They have Bortles as 16th of 32 QBs this week statistically, but 1st of 32 if you just look at the second half.
Exactly as the whole point is to score TDs on offense, Bortles can't have played any better in 2nd half he took us to scoring a TD on every possession. Doesn't really matter what help he had.
They also bumped his score up from yesterday from a -5.4 to -2.9 lol
Do they even football?
That 2nd one is not a near pic, I doubt even ARob catches it, let alone a lumbering LB.
Bahahahahaha...i love this guy.
At the end of the day Bortles has led this team to 11 offensive touchdowns in the past 2 games and settling for just 1 field goal. That is a huge improvement over where we were a few weeks ago. Advanced "statistics" may say that a pass to Hurns "should've" been intercepted but instead was an 80 yard TD pass for instance. I'll take the results over what should have happened any day. All QBs get bounces their way over the course of the season, even the great ones.
Yeah....and I SHOULD'VE been born into a family with more money than sense.
Anyone else read this and hear "Ogre" yelling "Nerds!"
Yea Bortles isnt getting much love after this most recent game. I feel as though all the stat geeks are banding together to defend his abysmally low QBR rating. It's as if this is a personal affront against all advanced football statistics. I still remember the week where Aaron Rodgers completed 50% of his passes and threw for only 70 yards with no TDs in a blowout loss and had a better QBR than Tom Brady who threw for 350+ with a much better comp% and 4 TDs to 0 INTs in a blowout win. I'm a math guy so I'm all for developing statistics to be used for real indepth analysis, but at some point those who keep producing the QBR statistic should realize it has major flaws. And while I like what Pro Football Focus tries to accomplish and a lot of times I think they are "ballpark" correct, even their rankings are somewhat suspect. It shouldnt even be classified as a quantifiable statistic or metric because it's completely subjective. If two people can look at the same play and grade it completely differently, that isn't math. That's like sticking your finger out the window and guessing the temperature. If a second observer can't replicate the metric or the number, it is inherently flawed and subject to personal bias. Heck forget a second observer, the same guy would probably grade the same game differently from one day to the next depending on his mood. But in their defense, football is just a very difficult game to determine a worthwhile metric the way you can in baseball and to some degree basketball.
Quote:... But in their defense, football is just a very difficult game to determine a worthwhile metric the way you can in baseball and to some degree basketball.
And that's why I think they should just stop. The numbers simply don't reflect reality, nor will they ever. You're just not going to be able to nail down a hard and fast value on a subjective statistic, so why bother?
Quote:And that's why I think they should just stop. The numbers simply don't reflect reality, nor will they ever. You're just not going to be able to nail down a hard and fast value on a subjective statistic, so why bother?
Because people eat that stuff up. Aren't there people that pay for PFF?
Quote:Because people eat that stuff up. Aren't there people that pay for PFF?
Don't we pay for that service? I thought I read something where Khan Jr was using PFF analysis as part of his analytical team.
Quote:And that's why I think they should just stop. The numbers simply don't reflect reality, nor will they ever. You're just not going to be able to nail down a hard and fast value on a subjective statistic, so why bother?
Since they don't publish their formula, they likely don't have one. They are probably just Teddy or Johnny Football draftnik wonks trying to disguise their hatred for Blake Bortles.
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