Excellent Post Bullseye. Plenty to read. As I decipher the additions to the team, the only factor that keeps coming to mind is how well/soon will the team solidify w/respect to playing together. The D is coming together a little slower than I'd like plus the injuries have taken effect as well...
Time Will Tell...
NH3...
Quote:The Jags will actually show improvement if they can just cut down on all those senseless drops I see from the WRs almost every game.
Come on guys, concentrate and help your young QB out, the ball isn't going to be thrown perfect all the time.
Agreed... :thumbsup:
NH3...
I would be shocked by 4 wins. We won 4 with Gabbert and Henne. We won 3 with rookie Blake.
To win 3 or 4 again shows that Bradley can't coach. I think this team has talent and if Gus can't get us 6-8 wins, something is wrong. Especially since we are in probably the worst division in football.
Quote:I would be shocked by 4 wins. We won 4 with Gabbert and Henne. We won 3 with rookie Blake.
To win 3 or 4 again shows that Bradley can't coach. I think this team has talent and if Gus can't get us 6-8 wins, something is wrong. Especially since we are in probably the worst division in football.
The Texans and Colts aren't bad. The Colts are super-bowl contenders and the Texans are a QB away from being in that discussion. The Titans are the weakest, but they might be on the rise if Mariota works out.
Quote:The Texans and Colts aren't bad. The Colts are super-bowl contenders and the Texans are a QB away from being in that discussion. The Titans are the weakest, but they might be on the rise if Mariota works out.
Texans are average. Titans are a bottom 3 team. Colts are indeed SB contenders but top to bottom, who is worst than the AFC South? Maybe NFC South? But overall I think they are better. They've certainly been better the past 5 years or so.
Quote:The Texans and Colts aren't bad. The Colts are super-bowl contenders and the Texans are a QB away from being in that discussion. The Titans are the weakest, but they might be on the rise if Mariota works out.
LOL. If you say so.
Quote:LOL. If you say so.
How is this funny? I don't understand why you're so confused about the NFL. You think Henne and Joeckel are good, and now you think the Colts and Texans are bad. Something is terribly wrong here.
Quote:Texans are average. Titans are a bottom 3 team. Colts are indeed SB contenders but top to bottom, who is worst than the AFC South? Maybe NFC South? But overall I think they are better. They've certainly been better the past 5 years or so.
The NFC South is the worst, yes. The Texans went 9-7 without a QB, so that in itself shows the talent that they have. Imagine if Henne had to lead our team... That's basically what the Texans had to deal with. The Titans are just getting started with their re-build. The AFC South is labeled one of the weakest because of the Jags and Titans.
Quote:
3. Special teams must improve. A while back, there was a discussion on this board regarding how special teams lost us 2-3 games at least last year. Obviously this is unacceptable. This preseason, we didn't see the special teams disasters we saw last regular season. But it wasn't flawless, either. Reportedly, there were at least three different times the team lined up with ten on the field. That can lead to disastrous results. We also have a new kicker.
5. Just some plain old good luck.
Your thoughts?
As always, a well thought-out thread, Bullseye and you'v hit the...err...bullseye. I think it is reasonable to expect the special teams play to improve greatly. The 10 men on the field stuff was in the first preseason game and won't happen again, given that the roles are now cemented. A deeper team (which the Jags certainly are) is a team which has better special team players. Last year, we really lacked depth...and it showed on special teams,especially on the offensive line...which caused the (two?) blocked kicks. This year, the OL is deep. The new kicker may be somewhat more erratic than Scobee (not a certainty) but I've noticed that his kicks go up very quickly. Some of Scobee's long kicks kind of started low...easier to block.
Of course the depth comment is predicated on staying more-or-less healthy, which is why I left your final comment...a little luck would contribute to the healthy part. Add a couple of good bounces of the ball? Could be a fun season.
Jim
Finish 5-11 but show enough progress to keep bradley and staff for another year.
Quote:The NFC South is the worst, yes. The Texans went 9-7 without a QB, so that in itself shows the talent that they have. Imagine if Henne had to lead our team... That's basically what the Texans had to deal with. The Titans are just getting started with their re-build. The AFC South is labeled one of the weakest because of the Jags and Titans.
The texans got to 9 wins because they got to play against the Jaguars and titans for four of those wins. As was said earlier, the colts are getting an easy run to the playoffs thanks to the dreadfulness of the division overall. It's time to put away Bradley's bib and diaper and for him to show he's a big boy that actually belongs, not some friendly guy cashing a big check and accomplishing nothing.
Quote:The Jags had better see it in the win column. The team won three games last year and four the season before that. If it can't improve in the win column it's time for Khan to jettison Bradley and Caldwell, because losing 12 or 13 games isn't something that should be expected of any team for three straight seasons under a regime.
The floor on the season just for Bradley to keep his job should be seven wins. Even if the team faces tons of injuries to key positions if he's looking at another top 3 draft pick he needs to be canned. At some point the excuses have to stop and a great coach needs to be sought.
If the Jaguars win five or less games again I can totally see Khan parting ways with Gus, but he needs to hang onto Caldwell regardless. The talent upgrade on paper is abundantly obvious, and that's what he brings to the table. If they ultimately fail to perform well enough, that's on Gus.
Quote:The texans got to 9 wins because they got to play against the Jaguars and titans for four of those wins. As was said earlier, the colts are getting an easy run to the playoffs thanks to the dreadfulness of the division overall. It's time to put away Bradley's bib and diaper and for him to show he's a big boy that actually belongs, not some friendly guy cashing a big check and accomplishing nothing.
Those easy four wins helped the Texans reach 9-7 after going 5-11 the previous year. That's a four win difference marking the biggest difference from '13 to '14 in the league. A handful of teams improved by 3 wins. With that in mind it's unrealistic to expect any team to improve their record by more than three to four wins. If you look at last years 3-13 record and improve it by 3 to 4 wins, that puts them at 6-10 or 7-9. This is realistic for a team having made drastic improvement in one offseason, and is really as much as any of us should expect. When you take a hard look at the schedule, even reaching this mark look tough. When you then consider that the Jaguars have not topped five wins for several years, you begin to realize that a 6-10 record really would mean the Jaguars have done everything they can to win this year. Anything more than 6-10 would amount to icing on the cake. If Gus reaches 6 wins, he's staying put. I cringe when I see suggestions on this board that he better go 8-8 or better. Looking at the schedule and at league history, that's just not realistic especially when your #3 overall pick is on IR for the season.
Quote:Many of us share the same concerns about this looking like a better team, but being unsure if it will translate into improved wins and losses.
Throughout the offseason and preseason, many posters have suggested that 6-10 is the minimum acceptable floor of wins this team can have and still maintain the current coaching.
So the question is, assuming everything stated in the OP is true, what would it take for this team to reach that 6 win floor? What has to happen in order for this team to actually manifest progress in your eyes?
To me:
1. Bortles' progress must be legitimate and continuous. What we have seen this preseason has been impressive to most of us. But he impressed us last year too. He looks like he has a better grasp of offense and defenses. He seems to be making confident decisions, and not just winging it impressively. That must continue in the regular season.
2. This team must stay healthy. It's been hit with some injuries to key personnel, but none seem particularly devastating or long term, aside from Fowler. That has to hold up.
3. Special teams must improve. A while back, there was a discussion on this board regarding how special teams lost us 2-3 games at least last year. Obviously this is unacceptable. This preseason, we didn't see the special teams disasters we saw last regular season. But it wasn't flawless, either. Reportedly, there were at least three different times the team lined up with ten on the field. That can lead to disastrous results. We also have a new kicker.
4. The team must mature. There is a large young nucleus on this team. These guys-Bortles, AR15, Lee, Hurns, Joeckel, Cyp, T. Smith, C. Smith, Colvin, et al are likely going to develop and improve from year one to year two or from 2 to 3. These guys must continue to learn how to be professionals. They must learn how to eat, train, prepare for game day, and adjust. With more experienced guys on the roster like Thomas and Wiz, they can better learn how to do this.
5. Just some plain old good luck.
Your thoughts?
Good point. Point four may be the most critical of all. We have a lot of young key players coming into their own, and they simply have to be on the top of their game. This is going to require maturity, although we're seeing plenty
of signs that they are.
Quote:Amen on both but IMO as you pointed out the team has improved through FA and Draft this year but it probably won't translate to a significant increase in wins. However, with each game the team will improve and after the bye week the arrow pointing up should be significantly evident in the play on the field. 8-8 is probably best we can count on unless O side of ball really is able to move against real NFL talent week after week. not just in parts of games. We are going to find out pretty early but I expect us to lose more thn a few early games then the wins will start. Go Jags.
I've taken my fair share of slack for suggesting an 0-4 start is very realistic and for following that up by saying I'd be ecstatic to see them simply reach 1-3 out of the gate. I know that's hard for some to hear, but the Panthers, Dolphins, Patriots and Colts are four darn good teams. I'm taking a hard core bashing in an NFL group for suggesting the Jaguars will win a low scoring game week one, but I feel doing so is essential as weeks 2, 3 and 4 are scaring the begeezers out of me. That said, going up against these playoff contenders early should make the Jaguars a battle-hardened team early on, and I'm really liking their chances the rest of the way to ink six wins over their last twelve games. With that in mind, I'm praying they find a way to shock the world with a big win over someone they have no expectations of beating which in turn leads to my official prediction of 8-8 (1-3 start + 6 expected wins + 1 unexpected win). I know I just said 8-8 is practically unrealistic, but that's the kind of faith I have in this team. Next year they just might be good enough to contend for a Playoff spot.
This is the prove it year, we either have success or it's time to make changes AGAIN.
Quote:I would be shocked by 4 wins. We won 4 with Gabbert and Henne. We won 3 with rookie Blake.
To win 3 or 4 again shows that Bradley can't coach. I think this team has talent and if Gus can't get us 6-8 wins, something is wrong. Especially since we are in probably the worst division in football.
Agreed, and not only that but we're also facing the easiest NFC division with the NFC South. A four to five win season would simply reek of "same ol', same ol'," and I just can't see this fan base standing for that.
Quote:The Texans and Colts aren't bad. The Colts are super-bowl contenders and the Texans are a QB away from being in that discussion. The Titans are the weakest, but they might be on the rise if Mariota works out.
I know many of us have downgraded the Texans having realized they lost their workhorse Arian Foster, but I just read he's been healing up and may be ready for action as early as week three. He could even beat Julius Thomas, Sen'Derrick Marks and Branch to the field.
Quote:If the Jaguars win five or less games again I can totally see Khan parting ways with Gus, but he needs to hang onto Caldwell regardless. The talent upgrade on paper is abundantly obvious, and that's what he brings to the table. If they ultimately fail to perform well enough, that's on Gus.
The talent upgrades on paper look good, and Gus appears to have been the weakest link so far, but really if Caldwell were doing such a great job it's likely that the team would be competitive almost regardless of how impotent Gus is as a head coach. Plus there's the little matter of Gus being Caldwell's guy. If Gus is the problem then Caldwell probably should have realized it by now and probably replaced him in the off season instead of letting him head into a third season without Caldwell's full faith. That's the main problem, when Khan has his meeting with Gus and Dave after the season and asks why the team still can't compete with average teams and Dave says "Gus is the problem," then Khan's next question will be "Why did it take you three seasons of consistent losing to realize this?" If Caldwell can't be trusted to recognize a quality coach then who is going to be hiring the coach? Khan? If Khan is hiring the coach without Dave then it could be the case that he simply has to get rid of Dave, too, in spite of how hopeful we might all be about the players hes taken so far.
Quote:Those easy four wins helped the Texans reach 9-7 after going 5-11 the previous year. That's a four win difference marking the biggest difference from '13 to '14 in the league. A handful of teams improved by 3 wins. With that in mind it's unrealistic to expect any team to improve their record by more than three to four wins. If you look at last years 3-13 record and improve it by 3 to 4 wins, that puts them at 6-10 or 7-9. This is realistic for a team having made drastic improvement in one offseason, and is really as much as any of us should expect. When you take a hard look at the schedule, even reaching this mark look tough. When you then consider that the Jaguars have not topped five wins for several years, you begin to realize that a 6-10 record really would mean the Jaguars have done everything they can to win this year. Anything more than 6-10 would amount to icing on the cake. If Gus reaches 6 wins, he's staying put. I cringe when I see suggestions on this board that he better go 8-8 or better. Looking at the schedule and at league history, that's just not realistic especially when your #3 overall pick is on IR for the season.
In 2013 the texans had a QB implosion and went 2-14, not 5-11, they were a wildcard playoff level team before that and a slightly better than average team after that, but they're definitely not among the top teams. They feasted on the Jaguars and titans for the last five years. The texans are a middle tier team at best, and if they played in a division like the AFC north they'd probably be a consistent four or five win team instead of being competitive for a wildcard spot.