Given the Jaguars lack of success, it comes as no surprise that a majority of Jaguars fans wanted the team to clean house, including Dave Caldwell. Most of his detractors point to the overall record and the number of first round misses as the reasoning for wanting him out. While I am among those few who do NOT want him out, I readily concede he is not without his flaws. He committed two of the cardinal sins of a GM-missing on his head coach and missing on his highly drafted QB. I would also add in the inability to acquire a stud OL and the inability to retain key players as legitimate criticisms. Some have lamented his reluctance/refusal to trade down as a reason to bash him. That said, I do believe he has his merits. Contrary to popular belief, he has not been completely dependent upon highly drafted players to build the team. He has proven over time he can find contributors in the mid to late draft with Yannick Ngakoue, Linder and Telvin Smith as examples. However, one critical aspect of his stewardship has escaped scrutiny-or at least discussion- on the boards: his second round strategy.
As I have mentioned above, Caldwell has not traded back in the draft to accumulate picks very often. In fact, I can only recall him trading away our seventh round pick last year in exchange for Seattle's 6th round pick this year as an example of Caldwell trading down in a draft. But Caldwell has not traded up in the first round to go after a player he has targeted. He has let the draft fall to him and it has worked for him at the top of recent drafts. In 2016, he sat at 5 and wound up with Jalen Ramsey. Last year, he stood pat at 7 and inexplicably wound up with Josh Allen. However, history has demonstrated considerably less reticence in trading up in the second round.
In 2014, he traded up into the bottom of the 2nd round to acquire WR Allen Robinson. 2016 saw Caldwell trade up in the second round to draft LB Myles Jack. The very next year, Caldwell again traded up in the second round in an attempt to solidify LT with Cam Robinson. Finally last year, the Jaguars traded up again in the second round to draft RT Jawaan Taylor. A look back on the board shows the trades and subsequent players drafted were overwhelmingly applauded by those on the board. I can scarcely recall anyone panning the picks at the time. The most I can recall was last year's drafting of Taylor, most of which focused on him not being worth a top ten pick in the first round. I recall one poster who wanted Ford from Oklahoma (who was also acquired via a trade up, IIRC. But nobody really panned the trades up in the second round, though historically, this board has been averse to trading up as a general proposition.
However, the resulting players drafted with the improved draft position has yielded mixed results. Acquiring Allen Robinson gave the Jaguars their first 1000 yard WR since Jimmy Smith some ten years earlier. But the team could not convince him to stay after 2017, and he left for Chicago as a free agent. The Myles Jack pick was lauded by the board, and Baltimore was slated to draft him had the Jaguars not traded up above them. He has stayed healthy, added a healthy amount of athleticism to the LB corps, and the team felt good enough about him to grant him a second contract. However, he got little playing time in 2016, played at SAM in 2017 (which typically reduced his playing time), inherited the Mike position upon Poz's retirement, and has been less than consistent since moving there. Cam Robinson started at LT his rookie year and instantly provided improvement to the position being part of a line that allowed the fewest sacks on any Jaguars OL over a single season. Yet people point out he was one of the lowest rated LTs in that year, and his level of play subsequent to that has decreased, to the point where many fans would be happy with the Jaguars drafting his replacement at 9 this year. Finally, Jawaan Taylor showed promise to some last year, but to me he struggled mightily.
This leads me to wonder about the soundness and efficacy of the strategy of trading up in the second round. On the one hand, I like the Jaguars being aggressive in acquiring talent, especially to players who fall into the second round. The prospect of getting a bargain with a first round grade in the second round is certainly appealing. Trading up in the second round as opposed to the first is a way of mitigating the cost associated with such a move. However, with the players acquired not having the desired impact, it's natureal to have second thoughts. Coupled with Caldwell's proven ability to find contributors in later rounds, there is also an argument that the potential contribution of players found in later round picks that were traded away to move up in the second actually does not mitigate the cost of moving up, but actually inflates the cost beyond the point of prudence.
So what do you guys think? Given the circumstances involved, is trading up in the second a sound strategy or not? Is it a matter of a sound strategy botched by the poor execution of drafting the "wrong" players? Does the fact a second round pick, statistically speaking, has a low percentage of becoming a quality starter in any way influence your position? Looking back to those trades, given the needs of the team and the players selected, would you do them again and pick the same players, do it again abd pick different players? If so, who would you have picked instead and why? Or would you not trade up at all, risk missing out on what you may consider to be a second round bargain, and keep the later mid round pick? If this is your choice, if you are among those who do not trust Caldwell to properly evaluate talent, why would keeping the pick have been more beneficial the team? than trading up? Is there a player in this draft for whom you would be willing to trade up to draft if he somehow fell to the second round (realistically)?
Worst to 1st. Curse Reversed!
