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The Case for Going QB Early (Long)

#1

It’s not a stretch to suggest the prevailing paradigm amongst Jaguars fans and possibly the Jaguars’ brass is to go with Minshew as the starting QB and use at least substantial portions of our plentiful draft capital in putting blockers and weapons around him to maximize the chances of him succeeding.  I readily concede this is not an unreasonable approach to next month’s draft, one I have explored if not outright advocated at various points throughout the offseason.  As unfortunate the circumstances surrounding his insertion into the lineup were, his play exceeded all reasonable expectations for a rookie 6th round passer and the performance of many veterans, and even that of first overall pick Kyler Murray.  In a rare case of unity in this franchise, the front office, coaches and fans all seem to love him.  We owe it to him and everyone above to ensure if ;ast year’s performance were not an aberration and to see just how far he can go with an improved supporting cast.  Employing this strategy, we see what we have in Minshew.  If he succeeds, the position is finally fixed.  If he fails, we can use our draft capital next year to go after Trevor Lawrence, one of the best QB prospects to come along in years.  But I would be remiss if I did not express countervailing considerations.  I submit that certainties of the past, realities of the present, and uncertainties of the future should force this front office to strongly consider taking a signal caller in the first round this year.
 
History suggests we should not put all of our eggs in the Minshew basket just yet.  There were at least three times in team history where we put all of the team’s hopes on a young QB, eschewed the position subsequent to that, and bypassed possible Hall of fame caliber talent at the position to our detriment.  In 2003 the team drafted Byron Leftwich.  Subsequent drafts saw us do what NFL teams traditionally doo when they get a signal caller-draft weapons around him in the effort to maximize his chances to succeed.  These efforts resulted in bypass signal callers like Ben Roethlisberger in 2004 and Aaron Rodgers in 2005, The effect was exacerbated when the players drafted to bolster the weapons around him failed with the busts of Reggie Williams and matt Jones.  This pattern was repeated in Blaine Gabbert in 2011, drafting Justin Blackmon in 2012, and bypassing Russell Wilson  that same year.  The third gut punch to Jaguars nation happened when the team drafted Blake Bortles in 2014.  Even though the front office was a little more successful in putting weapons around him with the additions o Marquise Lee, Allen Robinson, Allen Hurns, the decision to add RB Leonard Fournette at the top of the 2017 draft led to the team bypassing QBs Patrick Mahomes and DeShaun Watson.  The end result of those premature QB decisions resulted in watching teams like Pittsburgh, Green Bay and Kansas City ascend to win four Super Bowls and reach numerous playoffs subce 2003, while the Jaguars have not reached any Super Bowls in our history, and have only been to the playoffs three (3) times since 2000.  If there is a potential franchise QB available, we should not pass him up even if we like Minshew.
 
Currently reality also suggests we should take a QB high this year.  The overall consensus is that four (4) QBs will be drafted in the first round this year.  Joe Burrow is a virtual lock to go to Cincinnati with the first pick, while most projuect Alabama’s Tua Tagoavila and Oregon’s Justin Herbert to be top ten picks, while Untah State’s Jordan Love has been projected to go as high as 9 but mostly through the mid to late first round.  None of us have any clue as to how the Jaguars’ board is set up or will be set up by draft day, but at this point, it is not a total stretch to state the BPA on the Jaguars board may well be a QB at 9 or 20.  With Tua’s injury history, it wouldn’t be a total shock to see risk averse teams above us to pass on him.  Similarly, I know many of people who are less than enthused about Herbert, and skeptical regarding Jordan Love, which isn’t too different from 2017, when people didn’t like Mahomes and Watson.  The fact is, if Marino can fall to around 27th overall , Brady can fall to 199th overall, Rodgers could sall to approximately 24th pverall, Russell Wilson could fall to the 3rd round, and Brady to 199th overall, these guys could fall to us.  If the team has them ranked accordingly, they should not hesitate to pull the trigger on picking them.  Furthermore, we have a need at the position.  Aside Minshew, the only QB we have is Joshua Dobbs, obtained via trade from Pittsburgh after Foles was hurt.  While Dobbs is scary smart, he isn’t likely the answer to the backup QB position, much less the hall of fame long term signal caller this team needs.  Pittsburgh traded him away AFTER they lost Big Ben for the year.  It’s not as if they were loaded at the position behind Big Ben.  Neither of the current Steelers backups are very good, but were desired over Dobbs.  Finally competition at the position will make the position stronger.  A common complaint uttered during Leftwich’s tenure is that he never had to compete for the QB position.  Taking a QB high and making him and Minshew compete for playing time would let everyone on the team-including the QBs-know no position is safe, and that everyone has to perform.  That will optimize performance.  Furthermore, taking a QB early now does not necessarily defeat the idea of taking a QB high next year.  If we were to draft a QB this year and we hit on him as a franchise QB, we’d have his services one year early.  If we missed on him, we still have time to rebound.

Finally, I believe the uncertainty surrounding the future makes deferring on QB until next year a most risky proposition on any number of levels.  During normal circumstances, it’s risky because you wouldn’t know where in the draft order you would finish.  You wouldn’t know what kind of year the guy you are targeting now would have…whether his performance drops or he sustains a serious injury or develops any off field baggage.  But with the added uncertainty of the coronavirus factoring in, waiting until 2021 ccould make such a deferral a more dubious strategy.  How will the draft order be determined if the season is canceled?  Would they simply repeat this year’s draft order?  Would you be willing to expend the draft capital on players with one less season’s worth of tape and development?  Would they somehow create an order based on the average number of wins over the last 2-3 seasons?  How would the Jaguars fare in such a process?  A shortened season doesn’t add much to the certainty.  While a more jaundiced fan may think the Campbell, Bouye and Foles trades may have been calculated to reduce the win total short term over the course of a 17 game season, a shortened season –say 9 games-might not be enough  to achieve that result.  One upset win could knock this team out of range of Lawrence ore even Fields.  Alternatively, a shortened season may result in a tie where we miss out on the top pick like we did in 2013.  If it’s true the consensus of Lawrence being the best QB prospect in some time, the team with the top pick may be even less inclined than Cincinnati to trade that pick away.  That cost to acquire that pick, if it is even possible to acquire-would be more expensive for us next year than it may be to get a QB this year.  At least if we were to even trade up to get a QB this year, we’ve got two years of extra picks to use to get the QB.  Next year, we will have already spent the extra draft capital this year without having any extra picks in 2022 as an additional cushion.  Assume, arguendo, the league simply decided to keep the same draft order and Cincy remains at the top since no games have been played.   If they remained happy with Burrow and were willing to part with the top overall pick, suppose their price for moving up was 4 #1 overall picks.  Were you able to pay off that price in two years, functionally it become less expensive than it would to pay that same price over three  or four.  Think of it as spending your last $10 on something as opposed to buying the same item with your last $30.  The same item becomes more expensive because it takes a higher percentage of c your capital to acquire it.  Or perhaps more accurately, financing a loan over a shorter period of time

One more thing.  For years, my argument against following up the Leftwich pick with a pick of Roethlisberger was that NFL teams simply didn’t do things like that.  Given the uniqueness of the QB position, the need to put people around him, how expensive top ten picks were in terms of contracts, teams didn’t draft back to back first round picks on QB.  Until Arizona followed up the Josh Rosen pick with Kyler Murray last year, there had only been two teams since 1980 to spend back to back first round picks on QBs”  The 1982-83 Baltimore Colts, who spent a 1 on Art Schlichter in 1982, to spending the #1 overall the following year on John Elway.  The 1989 Cowboys spent the #1 overall pick on Troy Aikman, and thanks to the subsequent Supplemental draft later that same year, they spent a first round pick (which wound up being the #1 overall I 1990) on Steve Walsh.  There would be several differences between those situations and the Jaguars.  First, taking a QB in the first round this year would not be the same as taking back to back first round QBs.  Though Minshew played well as a rookie, he was taken in the 6th round.  Secondly, even in an extreme example of taking a first round QB this year and then taking Lawrence next year, the rookie wage scale preempts the salary cap crippling contracts that #1 overall picks used to command.  From a financial standpoint, having Minshew.  Herbert/Lawrence on the roster competing for the job becomes a far more palatable proposition now than it did then.  As evidenced from the Gabbert and Foles trades, Caldwell (assuming he is still here in 2021) has proven adept at getting trade value for QBs the team no longer wants.  But if that scenario seems farfetched, I submit it would be more desirable for this team to have that kind of surplus at QB as opposed to the opposite possibility-namely that Minshew is not the answer, but the team does not draft his replacement this year, and in 2021 the team is not in position or able to get into position to draft his replacement.

To a large degree, it is fortunate that Minshew  played well enough to cause the FO to place faith in him.  Sadly the Jaguars have missed so many times at the QB position these consideration are even an issue.  But we’ve prematurely put our eggs in a QB’s basket before and paid a heavy price. We should not possibly abandon the draft board simply  for the sake of bolstering Minshew.  Instead of adopting the policy , and for myriad reasons, there’s no guarantee the future makes it possible for us to take Lawrence next year.  Instead of lving by the axiom of “Good things come to those who wair.” Perhaps we should adopt a “There’s no time like the present” approach to QB.
 

Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!





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Messages In This Thread
The Case for Going QB Early (Long) - by Bullseye - 03-23-2020, 04:02 PM
RE: The Case for Going QB Early (Long) - by PF* - 03-23-2020, 04:19 PM
RE: The Case for Going QB Early (Long) - by PF* - 03-23-2020, 04:32 PM
RE: The Case for Going QB Early (Long) - by PS9 - 03-23-2020, 09:07 PM
RE: The Case for Going QB Early (Long) - by Upper - 03-23-2020, 05:37 PM
RE: The Case for Going QB Early (Long) - by PF* - 03-23-2020, 06:25 PM
RE: The Case for Going QB Early (Long) - by Upper - 03-23-2020, 06:17 PM
RE: The Case for Going QB Early (Long) - by Upper - 03-23-2020, 07:03 PM
RE: The Case for Going QB Early (Long) - by PS9 - 03-24-2020, 07:18 AM
RE: The Case for Going QB Early (Long) - by Mikey - 03-24-2020, 10:10 AM
RE: The Case for Going QB Early (Long) - by Kane - 03-25-2020, 10:07 AM
RE: The Case for Going QB Early (Long) - by Mikey - 03-26-2020, 08:37 AM
RE: The Case for Going QB Early (Long) - by Kane - 03-26-2020, 10:13 AM
RE: The Case for Going QB Early (Long) - by Upper - 03-26-2020, 10:09 AM



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