I’ve often thought about this, and I wonder what you all think.

What characteristics do the great QB’s possess in college that, if you were able to predict their success in the NFL, you could use them to find that “ needle in the haystack” ?

I’ve done a lot of work with credit scoring, and in that environment, lenders have statistically selected the characteristics that are predictive in determining whether someone is a good credit risk. Can that science be applied to pro football?

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“ I was a male, trapped in a female body........and then I was born. “

Mental game has to be stronger than your physical tools.

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Theres a couple that stand out to me as being make or break for a QB.   

The first one is mental processing.  How fast can they see something happen and adjust accordingly? When a play breaks down what is the first thing they do? Mental processing is something that can be worked on and can differ depending on how long they've been in one offense or how long they've been in the league but generally QBs with slow processing don't become fast.   

Second one is poise. Alot of QB talk is centered around "the it factor". The unquantifiable aura that a QBs either have or they don't. A good few things go into the it factor but to be the most important part of it is simply poise. Can they keep a clear head , lead a team and remain in the moment even when chaos is all around them? Can they stay consistent all through a game regardless of the outcome? The greats all had near perfect pose. Marino, Brady, Manning, Montana ,Brees. I think it's something that's relatively easy to see but something that's very hard to develop.

The third is arm talent. The combination of arm strength, accuracy ,placement and mechanical efficiency.  Arm talent is often just used as another word for arm strength but really I think it's much more than that. Having a rocket arm with no refinement is useless, having a deadly accurate arm with no zip is useless.  The most basic act of QBing is throwing the ball and the best QBs also have the most "talented arms". They can make throws from tough angles, they can place the ball perfectly for YAC, they can adjust timing based off route and receiver with ease.  

Raw accuracy % or number of deep balls thrown doesn't really show you arm talent. Cam Newton has tons of arm talent but doesn't have a high completion rate. Likewise with Andrew Luck.  


Rarely if ever see a QB with these 3 traits fail.

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Theres a couple that stand out to me as being make or break for a QB.   

The first one is mental processing.  How fast can they see something happen and adjust accordingly? When a play breaks down what is the first thing they do? Mental processing is something that can be worked on and can differ depending on how long they've been in one offense or how long they've been in the league but generally QBs with slow processing don't become fast.   

Second one is poise. Alot of QB talk is centered around "the it factor". The unquantifiable aura that a QBs either have or they don't. A good few things go into the it factor but to be the most important part of it is simply poise. Can they keep a clear head , lead a team and remain in the moment even when chaos is all around them? Can they stay consistent all through a game regardless of the outcome? The greats all had near perfect pose. Marino, Brady, Manning, Montana ,Brees. I think it's something that's relatively easy to see but something that's very hard to develop.

The third is arm talent. The combination of arm strength, accuracy ,placement and mechanical efficiency.  Arm talent is often just used as another word for arm strength but really I think it's much more than that. Having a rocket arm with no refinement is useless, having a deadly accurate arm with no zip is useless.  The most basic act of QBing is throwing the ball and the best QBs also have the most "talented arms". They can make throws from tough angles, they can place the ball perfectly for YAC, they can adjust timing based off route and receiver with ease.  

Raw accuracy % or number of deep balls thrown doesn't really show you arm talent. Cam Newton has tons of arm talent but doesn't have a high completion rate. Likewise with Andrew Luck.  


Rarely if ever see a QB with these 3 traits fail.

Thanks for those thoughts.......very good information.

To those you ‘ve listed, I would add raw intelligence, which could be a subset of mental processing. The ability to absorb a playbook quickly , identify defenses, blitz packages and change plays at the line of scrimmage effectively is very important.

A subset of arm talent might be the ability to alter the speed and trajectory of the pass, depending on the circumstances. How many times have we seen a QB throw a bullet pass to a receiver who is 10 yards away when a softer pass would make for an easier catch? Or, alternatively, a pass thrown on a line 15 feet above ground when “ putting air under it “ enables the receiver to adjust his pattern and make the catch?

Another trait that comes to mind is leadership ability. Is his personality the type that motivates his teammates ? Is he a “ natural leader “? When I watch Brady come off the field, he often confronts his teammates, and they often seek him out for discussion. He’s a coach on the field, educating players on how to do their jobs better.

With this said, how would Bortles have scored prior to the Jags drafting him based on these criteria?

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“ I was a male, trapped in a female body........and then I was born. “

I would agree with all the traits listed above other than raw intelligence. A quarterback does need to be "football smart," however. Terry Bradshaw won 4 Super Bowls and will never be mistaken for a rocket scientist, but he had enough "football smarts" to become a Hall of Famer.

I would add one more quality to the list and that is toughness. This is Blake's best quality by far. Regardless of how talented a quarterback may be, if he can't be counted on to stay on the field and not miss many games he is worthless. Unfortunately for Blake, he is greatly lacking in the other areas- especially mental processing and poise while under pressure. That is why the Jaguars' top priority in the off-season will be to find someone new at this most critical position.

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1. Football I.Q.- Someone read a defense, scan the field quickly, make a decision and find the open receivers. This is without a doubt, the most important and most difficult thing for a young QB to process, especially when the speed of the NFL is much faster than in college.

2. Accuracy- This is something you really can't teach. You either have an accurate arm or you don't, but if you don't, you won't last long in the NFL. If you have a QB with football intelligence and accuracy, I believe you have a pretty good shot at drafting a winner.

3. Durability- This is one of the most overlooked qualities. What good is the best QB in the world, if he's hurt all the time? I want a guy who is tough and whose body is able to hold up against 270 lb. linebackers knocking you over. He also cannot be afraid to get hit. I want a guy like Peyton Manning was. He was a QB who showed no fear, standing in the pocket as long as possible, knowing he was probably gonna get hit, but just when defenders were breathing down his back, he'd get rid of the ball at the last second and deliver a strike.

4. Leadership- I want a guy leading the huddle who other players want to rally around. they don't have to necessarily like him, but they must respect him and want to play with him. We don't need any Jay Cutler types in our locker room.

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All the above that people have listed but I think a very important one is just plain luck. Brady, Rodgers, Peyton Manning..those guys just seemed to be incredibly lucky at the correct time. How many times have we seen Rodgers win the game on a Hail Mary? It seems like once a year..and yes, his elite arm gets the ball there but his guy always seems to make the catch of his career and come down with it. I mean..look at Brady..not saying he didn't help win those super bowl rings but being lucky enough for Pete Carroll to throw from the 2? For the Falcons to just decide to pass a lot with a 28-3 lead? Brady was elite because he capitalized on those occasions but you can argue that he should not have even been in position to have that happen. Then you look at Bortles..how many times have we seen a bonkers interception from him? Last year against the Texans..against the lions where the ball skips off a receiver? He's not good enough to be that unlucky

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"Expect for the best. Prepare for the worst. Capitalize on what comes."

 

For me it's always been three key traits:

1. Commanding Leadership on and off the field. When you see a signal caller taking his time, calling the shots, going up to the line and pointing out this man or that man and changing the protection or play. That's usually a good sign that he's got an ability to understand what he's seeing out there and how to dictate them instead of being dictated.

2. Consistency. You rarely see a dip or drop in production. He either makes that same throw 9 times out of 10 or he doesn't. Or he rarely if ever has a bad game. And usually during his three or four year career in college he's either finishing in a bowl game as a winner or barely losing it.

3. Winning. He just wins week in and week out. Were they favored in that game? Doesn't matter. He pulls one out and wins it anyway.

That's typically what I look for. Don't care much for his height or division he plays in or where he's coming from program wise. Just as long as he can show off those three key traits. Don't care if you take him in RD1 or RD7. Just as long as he fits the bill in those regards.

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"What do I know of cultured ways, the gilt, the craft and the lie? I, who was born in a naked land and bred in the open sky. The subtle tongue, the sophist guile, they fail when the broadswords sing; Rush in and die, dogs - I was a man before I was a king."