Rudolph lit it up at his pro day

http://www.nfl.com/m/share?p=%2Fvideos%2...erformance

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000...at-pro-day

Reading that, it sounds like he might be the Steelers pick...

I just can't see it. The Steelers have huge needs at Safety, ILB and NT.

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I have a strong feeling that Rudolph will be the Jaguars' next back-up quarterback. They have definitely shown interest in him according to reports from reputable sources. As of now, it appears they will be able to draft him in the 2nd round, although it's quite possible they may want to trade up a little to guarantee they can get him. I would be all in favor of this happening for a number of reasons. Most importantly, the guy has excellent potential and would have been a first rounder in many other years. However, there are 5 guys who are very likely to be taken ahead of him at the position (Darnold, Rosen, Mayfield, Allen and Jackson). The way free agency has shaken out, it is very likely that Buffalo, the Jets, Giants, and Browns go q.b. in round 1. Denver and Arizona are also  possibilities, but I still think Rudolph makes it out of round 1.

Rudolph would be a great pick because he needs to sit at least a year before being ready to start. Blake won't have to look over his shoulder if he as a bad game, although everyone loves the back-up quarterbck. Few would question that Henne cannot be counted on and the team needs to replace him before next season. There is no way they can now pay a decent free agent q.b. so the draft is the way to go.

One of these 3 scenerios should take place:

1. Trade up in round 2 to get him after taking a tight end in the first round.
2. Trade out of round 1 and take Rudolph and the tight end in the 2nd plus get an extra mid-round pick.
3. Stay put in round 2 if it looks like Rudolph will fall to the.

The Jaguars free agency moves have not been perfect (Hayden?), but they should enable them to go BAP in basically every round. I expect Rudolph to be that guy somewhere in round 2.

There is a long history of good to great QBs dropping to round 2 and beyond.  Joe Montana was a third round pick.  Boomer Esiason was a 2nd round pick after being considered by some experts to be a first rounder.  Brett Favre dropped to the 2nd round in 1991.  Perhaps most famously, Tom Brady was a 5th round pick.

That said, given the circumstances, if scouts see him as a first round talent, I see no way he falls to the 2nd round.  In fact, I maintain the Jaguars would likely need to trade up a great deal to acquire his services.

Let's assume that Allen, Rosen, Darnold and Mayfield all go in the top six picks or so,  leaving Rudolph on the board.

Now let's look at the teams outside of the top ten that could still use a QB.

Miami-Tanneyhill has not been healthy the past few years and Cutler is done.
Buffalo-will likely trade up into the top 5-6 to get their signal caller.
Arizona-does anyone really think they will be content hitching their long term wagon to Sam Bradford?
Batimore-Flacco has won a Super Bowl, but has been average since and is now 33.
L.A. Chargers-Rivers is still a capable QB, but is in his late 30s.
New Orleans-Brees is still a stud, but will be 40 by next year.  The Saints need to find his replacement.
Pittsburgh-Big Ben is still a capable QB, but like Rivers and Brees, is in his late 30s.
New England-Brady is in his 40s now, and they have to find a replacement since they traded Garoppolo.

This does not factor in a team like Green Bay, who has proven they are willing to stockpile talent at the QB position if one falls to them (See 2005 selection of Aaron Rodgers with Brett Favre on the roster) or the unexpected trade from the top of the 2nd to into the bottom of the first.  (i.e. a Colts team that trades with Buffalo out of the 3 spot back up into the first to take a QB to hedge against Luck being finished).

I am not opposed to the Jaguars drafting a guy like Mason Rudolph if, in their opinion, he is worthy to be a first round pick.

But if we decide to go that route, we should not assume or take any chances that he will be there at 29.  The presumption should be that he won't be there.

Those picks 15-17 will be a Bermuda triangle for those wanting Rudolph at the bottom of the first.  If somehow he makes it through those teams, then I could see the Jaguars trying hard to trade up. 

It's entirely possible, however, the Jaguars will have to exceed the price KC and Houston paid to trade up last year to ensure Rudolph is available, and have to trade up higher than 15 to do it.

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Reading that, it sounds like he might be the Steelers pick...

I just can't see it. The Steelers have huge needs at Safety, ILB and NT.

If they still think they can win a Super Bowl, I could see them going the immediate impact route.

But I could also see them hedging against a Big Ben retirement by taking a guy like Rudolph, developing him slowly behind Big Ben, and finding guys at those positions later in the draft like they always seem to do.

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Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!

you are talking about the 6th best QB... I'm not saying that's a bad thing bc he is likely worthy of a 1st round pick... but 6 1st round QB's is insane... it never plays out like that. Teams have other needs. I wouldn't be surprised if 2 of the top 6 don't get drafted in the 1st round. Rosen, Darnold, and Allen should go in the 1st but I think 2 of Jackson, Mayfield or Rudolph will make it to the 2nd round.

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Good Evening Everyone!

So I've lurked around this site for a while and finally got around to creating an account when I found this thread.  Here's some background on me:

I am from Oklahoma, grew up a fan of OSU and graduated from there just last December.  I played QB through high school and though I've given up playing, I still have a deep passion for the game and love to watch the QBs play.  I've attended every OSU home game for the last 4 years and I've watched every game (even the ones I've attended) on my DVR.  All that said, here's my opinion on Mason and his pro prospects.

On his personality:

Rudolph is a very, very confident individual.  He's not as vocal about it as some are, such as Mayfield or Rosen, but he is extremely confident in his arm and he's not afraid to take risks and make questionable decisions.  This is a good thing and a bad thing, it's all about how well his position coach, OC and head coach can control it.  While for many QBs this means throwing it into tight windows or throwing it across the body (a Mayfield specialty), for Rudolph it means locking in on the deep route and trying to hit the home run ball.  Obviously, his favorite target was James Washington, but as the season progressed Marcell Ateman also became a popular long ball target as teams started to roll safeties over to Washington's side of the field.  Along this line of thought:

Deep Passes:

These are his bread and butter and are what has him so high on some team's draft boards.  While he was bailed out by his receivers on numerous occasions, he really is phenomenally accurate on deep balls which is what helps his receivers bail him out.  He is so accurate with these passes, they really aren't "50/50" balls as he gives his receivers every advantage he can.  He gets plenty of air under his passes and his touch is second-to-none.  This can be seen when you see that his top target (Washington) on these deep passes stand at just 6'0".  Now, he does believe a little too much in his accuracy and throws into tight coverages, but these mistakes rarely result in a turnover because of his ball placement.

Issues with intermediate routes:

These were a struggle all season long for him, and a lot of the blame can be placed on his offensive line.  The left side of his line was absolutely atrocious in pass defense, as Aaron Cochran and the revolving door at LG were constantly abused by some rather poor Big 12 defenses.  While he did make some errant reads and fail to go through his progressions, you could tell that he had very little confidence that his blindside protection would allow him and his receivers enough time to connect on these routes.  Why then was he so accurate on his deep passes?  Simply put, it took less time for the play to develop if his receivers were just streaking down the numbers as opposed to trying to run 10-15 yard crossing patterns.  Now, the struggles with these routes weren't solely on his line, but we will come back to this a bit later.

Short passes:

Ah.  The short (and lateral) passes.  They're a Mike Yurcich (OC) special, and I freaking hate how often these plays are called.  And just before you ask, no, Rudolph wasn't given the freedom to check out of these at will.  Rudolph was great at the short passes his Freshman and first part of his Sophomore seasons, but in the later part of his Sophomore year he sustained a knee injury on his left knee.  Nothing major, but you will notice that he starts to wear a knee brace off and on for the rest of his career.  I'm of the opinion, and I think his tape will show this, that his inconsistency on the short passes during this stretch from his Sophomore through Junior year is due to his lack of confidence in his leading leg.  He would often drop back and rest on that back leg (right leg), causing him to throw off of that back foot and causing the ball to sail.  Nothing on this was confirmed as Gundy is very Belichick-like when it comes to injuries and plenty of OSU insiders were buying into some theory that he had hurt his foot, but the knee thing was an issue and I think the tape shows that.  Now, there was marked improvement in his Senior year with accuracy in these short routes, but he still struggled to see defenders on these short "rub" crossing routes.  

Coaching:

Mike Yurcich, his OC and QB coach, is an interesting person.  Gundy hired him out of thin air, after googling top offenses in the country.  I'm not lying, that's literally what happened.  He came across Yurcich after finding him and his Shippensburg State offense (he was the OC) on his google search and next thing we know, we have a Division II offensive coordinator coming to Stillwater to try his hand at leading a Big 12 offense.  What's been most confusing is his title as QB coach, a title he's had his entire coaching career.  During his time at OSU, there's been very minimal progression of any of our QBs, and we've even had a few of the backups transfer out only to do better elsewhere (albeit at smaller schools).  The biggest issue I believe Rudolph has is his footwork, a problem he's had from the beginning but has not seemed to get much better during his time at OSU.  This is somewhat masked due to the entire offense seemingly being run out of a shotgun formation, but it gets exposed when he has to turn and release the ball quickly.  The biggest question I have about Rudolph being in the NFL is whether or not better QB coaches will help him improve his footwork, because he will not get away with a lot of his short passes in the NFL like he did in the Big 12 (obviously).

I'm sure there's more that I could think of to share, but it's late and I can't think of anything else to write.  My guess is that he's a second round pick, and honestly the value wouldn't be there for the Jags to take him due to anticipated BAP approach to this draft.  However, he is a good QB and have a good (if not great) NFL career in the right situation and I think the Jags are one of the teams that could provide that (very good run game and great defense).  If anyone has any questions, I will try my best to answer.  I'm no QB expert by any means, but I have watched every one of his college games.

Bonus take: I would take Rudolph before I took Mayfield.  Mayfield is very talented but he makes a lot of questionable passes that he could get away with in the Big 12, but won't in the NFL.  He is a great improviser and can dance in the pocket to buy time, but he often throws across his body or floats the ball when in that situation and NFL defense will absolutely expose that flaw in his game.  He will also take a lot of abuse in the NFL as he doesn't shy away from hits when running with the ball.  Similarly to Rudolph, if he gets in the right situation and the coaches can reign in his confidence, he will be a good QB, but that's a big question mark.  There's a reason why he turned the ball over so much when he played for Texas Tech and why all of a sudden he did so well at OU.  In the right situation and on a team with superior talent, he excels.  However, the talent gap between teams is much more narrow in the NFL than it is in the Big 12.

Really interesting insights. Thanks!

A question, how do you think he would adapt to running the run-first offense we seem determined to have?

Would his talents/flaws suit it? Or would they be wasted and a bad fit?

Good question!  Let me try to break it down a little bit:

OSU and the run game:

Obviously, OSU (like so many college teams) operates out of the shotgun and employs a spread-like offense, but what often goes unnoticed is that OSU stays extremely balanced on offense and has been on the "cutting-edge" of bringing the power run game to the spread offense.  There's quite a long history to OSU developing the power run game in the spread offense, but that's not exactly helpful information to this question so I'll avoid it, but OSU isn't as "pass happy" as many think.  In fact, last year OSU ran the ball more than it threw the ball- 505 rush attempts to 503 pass attempts.  The year before was even more run-reliant with 491 rushes to 465 passes.  

Why they run the ball so much:

This has nothing to do with QB talent or WR talent, but rather speaks to Mike Gundy's desire to run the ball.  Gundy has always wanted to have a power running game because he's a big believer in running to set up the pass, and it's hard to argue with his success.  It wasn't just Gundy's influence that led to such a prevalent running game though, it was also due to the fact that the offensive line was poor in pass protection but pretty good in run blocking and that OSU has an exceptional young running back (Justice Hill) who I believe can be a first round pick whenever he decides to declare.

Bottom line:

I don't think there will be much change in his game, to be perfectly honest.  This could be good news or bad news, but it's not like he's been playing in a pass-happy offense.  In some areas, it's going to help him where he can be weaker than some prospects, such as reading the defense and finding defenders in the middle of the field.  With linebackers unable to drift back into coverage as often, it will help him with crossing routes in the short to intermediate distances.  In other areas you probably won't see much change, such as helping cover up his poor footwork on quick passes.  That said, he can make all of the throws and with defenses unable to ignore Fournette and the running game, he can take the top off of defenses and won't be afraid to pull the trigger.  It's not just the long ball though, he will take advantage of what the defense gives him and he has the arm strength to thread the needle or hit receivers running the "Out" routes.

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you are talking about the 6th best QB... I'm not saying that's a bad thing bc he is likely worthy of a 1st round pick... but 6 1st round QB's is insane... it never plays out like that. Teams have other needs. I wouldn't be surprised if 2 of the top 6 don't get drafted in the 1st round. Rosen, Darnold, and Allen should go in the 1st but I think 2 of Jackson, Mayfield or Rudolph will make it to the 2nd round.

1983 had six first round QBs taken

Elway
Kelly
Blackledge
Eason
O'Brien
Marino

1999 had five first round QBs

Couch
McNabb
McNown
Culpepper
Akili Smith

But since 2000, three or more QBs were taken in the first round eleven (11) times, as opposed to the three times it happened between 1983-1999.

The point is, for whatever reasons, more QBs are getting first round grades, and more teams are taking them in the first round.

By the way, the consensus at this point is that he would be the 5th best, not the 6th best QB behind
Rosen
Darnold
Allen
Mayfield

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Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!

you are talking about the 6th best QB... I'm not saying that's a bad thing bc he is likely worthy of a 1st round pick... but 6 1st round QB's is insane... it never plays out like that. Teams have other needs. I wouldn't be surprised if 2 of the top 6 don't get drafted in the 1st round. Rosen, Darnold, and Allen should go in the 1st but I think 2 of Jackson, Mayfield or Rudolph will make it to the 2nd round.

1983 had six first round QBs taken

Elway
Kelly
Blackledge
Eason
O'Brien
Marino

1999 had five first round QBs

Couch
McNabb
McNown
Culpepper
Akili Smith

But since 2000, three or more QBs were taken in the first round eleven (11) times, as opposed to the three times it happened between 1983-1999.

The point is, for whatever reasons, more QBs are getting first round grades, and more teams are taking them in the first round.

By the way, the consensus at this point is that he would be the 5th best, not the 6th best QB behind
Rosen
Darnold
Allen
Mayfield

So... 6 QB's in the first round once in history? I'm confident that one of them will be there if we want one.

---

1983 had six first round QBs taken

Elway
Kelly
Blackledge
Eason
O'Brien
Marino

1999 had five first round QBs

Couch
McNabb
McNown
Culpepper
Akili Smith

But since 2000, three or more QBs were taken in the first round eleven (11) times, as opposed to the three times it happened between 1983-1999.

The point is, for whatever reasons, more QBs are getting first round grades, and more teams are taking them in the first round.

By the way, the consensus at this point is that he would be the 5th best, not the 6th best QB behind
Rosen
Darnold
Allen
Mayfield

So... 6 QB's in the first round once in history? I'm confident that one of them will be there if we want one.

I'm quite confident QBs will be there at 29.

I'm not sure that Rudolph will be one of them.

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Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!

I would bet on 5 quarterbacks going in the first round. All it takes is 1 team to fall in love with Lamar Jackson's athleticism and that will likely happen. I appreciate the insight provided from the Oklahoman. He seems to be knowledgeable and saw all of Rudolph's games. The thing I like best about Rudolph is his strength with the deep throw. That would create a real dilemma for defenses trying to stop Fournette by putting 8 men in the box. Moncrief and Cole are 2 guys who definitely have the ability to get deep.

The Jaguars would have to trade up in the 2nd round or back out of the first to get him. I see no way he falls to pick 61. In my opinion, he would be worth it in the 2nd round since he has way more upside than guys like White, Falk or Lauletta whom they'd consider in the mid-rounds.

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Really interesting insights. Thanks!

A question, how do you think he would adapt to running the run-first offense we seem determined to have?

Would his talents/flaws suit it? Or would they be wasted and a bad fit?

Good question!  Let me try to break it down a little bit:

OSU and the run game:

Obviously, OSU (like so many college teams) operates out of the shotgun and employs a spread-like offense, but what often goes unnoticed is that OSU stays extremely balanced on offense and has been on the "cutting-edge" of bringing the power run game to the spread offense.  There's quite a long history to OSU developing the power run game in the spread offense, but that's not exactly helpful information to this question so I'll avoid it, but OSU isn't as "pass happy" as many think.  In fact, last year OSU ran the ball more than it threw the ball- 505 rush attempts to 503 pass attempts.  The year before was even more run-reliant with 491 rushes to 465 passes.  

Why they run the ball so much:

This has nothing to do with QB talent or WR talent, but rather speaks to Mike Gundy's desire to run the ball.  Gundy has always wanted to have a power running game because he's a big believer in running to set up the pass, and it's hard to argue with his success.  It wasn't just Gundy's influence that led to such a prevalent running game though, it was also due to the fact that the offensive line was poor in pass protection but pretty good in run blocking and that OSU has an exceptional young running back (Justice Hill) who I believe can be a first round pick whenever he decides to declare.

Bottom line:

I don't think there will be much change in his game, to be perfectly honest.  This could be good news or bad news, but it's not like he's been playing in a pass-happy offense.  In some areas, it's going to help him where he can be weaker than some prospects, such as reading the defense and finding defenders in the middle of the field.  With linebackers unable to drift back into coverage as often, it will help him with crossing routes in the short to intermediate distances.  In other areas you probably won't see much change, such as helping cover up his poor footwork on quick passes.  That said, he can make all of the throws and with defenses unable to ignore Fournette and the running game, he can take the top off of defenses and won't be afraid to pull the trigger.  It's not just the long ball though, he will take advantage of what the defense gives him and he has the arm strength to thread the needle or hit receivers running the "Out" routes.

Oklahoma Aviator...

First off I commend you for your insight.  Thank you.

You touched briefly on his footwork, indicating it is his biggest weakness and is largely a function of being in the shotgun most of the time.

Could you elaborate on this?

What are the footwork struggles a QB typically has transitioning from an offense like he had at OSU and one in which he will likely operate in the NFL?  Do you think these flaws/struggles will be relatively easy for him to overcome?  Does he have athletic limitations that could slow that transition?  Do you think he should sit a year or so before starting?

---

 

Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!

I would bet on 5 quarterbacks going in the first round. All it takes is 1 team to fall in love with Lamar Jackson's athleticism and that will likely happen. I appreciate the insight provided from the Oklahoman. He seems to be knowledgeable and saw all of Rudolph's games. The thing I like best about Rudolph is his strength with the deep throw. That would create a real dilemma for defenses trying to stop Fournette by putting 8 men in the box. Moncrief and Cole  are 2 guys who definitely have the ability to get deep.

The Jaguars would have to trade up in the 2nd round or back out of the first to get him. I see no way he falls to pick 61. In my opinion, he would be worth it in the 2nd round since he has way more upside than guys like White, Falk or Lauletta whom they'd consider in the mid-rounds.

One of the things I noticed about Rudolph, especially as compared to Rosen, is his thick build.

In one of these threads there were links to Rudolph's pro day.  When you clicked on one of those links, there was another link to Rosen's.

He seems better suited to withstand the rigors and punishment of the NFL than Rosen, who looked like a string bean by comparison.

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Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!

No thanks. Give me Jackson instead.

---

Good question!  Let me try to break it down a little bit:

OSU and the run game:

Obviously, OSU (like so many college teams) operates out of the shotgun and employs a spread-like offense, but what often goes unnoticed is that OSU stays extremely balanced on offense and has been on the "cutting-edge" of bringing the power run game to the spread offense.  There's quite a long history to OSU developing the power run game in the spread offense, but that's not exactly helpful information to this question so I'll avoid it, but OSU isn't as "pass happy" as many think.  In fact, last year OSU ran the ball more than it threw the ball- 505 rush attempts to 503 pass attempts.  The year before was even more run-reliant with 491 rushes to 465 passes.  

Why they run the ball so much:

This has nothing to do with QB talent or WR talent, but rather speaks to Mike Gundy's desire to run the ball.  Gundy has always wanted to have a power running game because he's a big believer in running to set up the pass, and it's hard to argue with his success.  It wasn't just Gundy's influence that led to such a prevalent running game though, it was also due to the fact that the offensive line was poor in pass protection but pretty good in run blocking and that OSU has an exceptional young running back (Justice Hill) who I believe can be a first round pick whenever he decides to declare.

Bottom line:

I don't think there will be much change in his game, to be perfectly honest.  This could be good news or bad news, but it's not like he's been playing in a pass-happy offense.  In some areas, it's going to help him where he can be weaker than some prospects, such as reading the defense and finding defenders in the middle of the field.  With linebackers unable to drift back into coverage as often, it will help him with crossing routes in the short to intermediate distances.  In other areas you probably won't see much change, such as helping cover up his poor footwork on quick passes.  That said, he can make all of the throws and with defenses unable to ignore Fournette and the running game, he can take the top off of defenses and won't be afraid to pull the trigger.  It's not just the long ball though, he will take advantage of what the defense gives him and he has the arm strength to thread the needle or hit receivers running the "Out" routes.

Oklahoma Aviator...

First off I commend you for your insight.  Thank you.

You touched briefly on his footwork, indicating it is his biggest weakness and is largely a function of being in the shotgun most of the time.

Could you elaborate on this?

What are the footwork struggles a QB typically has transitioning from an offense like he had at OSU and one in which he will likely operate in the NFL?  Do you think these flaws/struggles will be relatively easy for him to overcome?  Does he have athletic limitations that could slow that transition?  Do you think he should sit a year or so before starting?

So there's a few different parts to this and I want to make sure each one is addressed so I'm going to break it down individually.

Footwork:

To be fair he does have good footwork, especially so when he has plenty of time in the pocket.  He has good pocket presence and feel for when and where to climb up or bail out.  It would be hard for him to put up the kind of numbers he did without it.  However, his footwork seems to break down whenever he senses pressure or it trying to make the quick turns to hit the receivers running within a few yards of the line of scrimmage.  Most of the time, it's just him not planting properly, but he will also get "happy feet" sometimes where he seems to bounce up and down which causes the pass to sail a bit on him.  I'm not entirely familiar with the offense run by the Jags, but if receiver screens are a common play, they will have to work a bit on his footwork.

The Shotgun:

This question is one for the ages and I'm not sure it's ever been answered.  It's hard to predict just how Rudolph will adapt to playing under center and how it will affect his footwork, but I'll take a stab at it by comparing it to how well he did in the Pistol formation here.  For those unfamiliar with the Pistol formation, the QB stands about 2 yards behind the Center with a RB behind him and usually (in our offense) flanked by what we call a Cowboy Back (more like a HB or TE).  This puts him not quite at shotgun depth, but definitely not under center either.  From here, he does have to turn his hips and shoulders and complete a drop back (usually 3-5 steps- almost never more than 5) before releasing the ball.  He handles this well and is very fluid in his rotations.  When given time, he is able to set his feet and launch from a good foundation, but the key thing to note here is when he is given time.  He can get flustered a bit by pressure and either not set his feet properly or start dancing after his drop back.  Frankly, it's hard to blame him with how spotty our O-Line was.  Whether it's something he will get over or not is hard to tell, but Big 12 teams started to find out that if they could get pressure on him with blitzes that his accuracy would drop as his footwork fell apart.  I think it's a big reason why he went from 4 INTs his Junior year to 9 INTs his Senior year.  Now, it's not all on him either (or the o-line for that matter).  His WRs, outside of Washington, were plagued with drops this year which caused him to tunnel in on receivers he could trust.  

Physically:

From a purely physical perspective, he's your prototypical NFL QB.  Tall, strong and fairly mobile, he will have no issues in the pocket (as mentioned above).  He's not fast, but he makes good reads when he needs to escape the pocket and he's not exactly slow when he gets outside.  I think the comparisons to Ben Roethlisberger are pretty accurate physically.  He has enough athleticism and mental wherewithal to pick up NFL offenses and adapt to playing under center if needed.  That said, for the first year or two, I definitely expect his accuracy to be higher from the shotgun formation than from under center.  That should change over time, but he will definitely be better suited in a situation where he can sit for a year or two and really start to master the offensive system.

Bottom Line:

When given time, he should be fine in terms of footwork whether under center or in the shotgun.  However, if teams can get pressure on him then it starts to break down for him and leads to sailed passes.  This is why I think it's key that he lands in the right situation.  He's not the kind of QB that's going to come in and lift a team up right away regardless of how bad their offense is.  I think he can become that eventually and honestly, I don't think there's any QBs in this draft who can do that, but he's not at that point yet where teams with glaring holes on offense can take him early and try to build around him.  Hopefully this answers your question.

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Oklahoma Aviator...

First off I commend you for your insight.  Thank you.

You touched briefly on his footwork, indicating it is his biggest weakness and is largely a function of being in the shotgun most of the time.

Could you elaborate on this?

What are the footwork struggles a QB typically has transitioning from an offense like he had at OSU and one in which he will likely operate in the NFL?  Do you think these flaws/struggles will be relatively easy for him to overcome?  Does he have athletic limitations that could slow that transition?  Do you think he should sit a year or so before starting?

So there's a few different parts to this and I want to make sure each one is addressed so I'm going to break it down individually.

Footwork:

To be fair he does have good footwork, especially so when he has plenty of time in the pocket.  He has good pocket presence and feel for when and where to climb up or bail out.  It would be hard for him to put up the kind of numbers he did without it.  However, his footwork seems to break down whenever he senses pressure or it trying to make the quick turns to hit the receivers running within a few yards of the line of scrimmage.  Most of the time, it's just him not planting properly, but he will also get "happy feet" sometimes where he seems to bounce up and down which causes the pass to sail a bit on him.  I'm not entirely familiar with the offense run by the Jags, but if receiver screens are a common play, they will have to work a bit on his footwork.

The Shotgun:

This question is one for the ages and I'm not sure it's ever been answered.  It's hard to predict just how Rudolph will adapt to playing under center and how it will affect his footwork, but I'll take a stab at it by comparing it to how well he did in the Pistol formation here.  For those unfamiliar with the Pistol formation, the QB stands about 2 yards behind the Center with a RB behind him and usually (in our offense) flanked by what we call a Cowboy Back (more like a HB or TE).  This puts him not quite at shotgun depth, but definitely not under center either.  From here, he does have to turn his hips and shoulders and complete a drop back (usually 3-5 steps- almost never more than 5) before releasing the ball.  He handles this well and is very fluid in his rotations.  When given time, he is able to set his feet and launch from a good foundation, but the key thing to note here is when he is given time.  He can get flustered a bit by pressure and either not set his feet properly or start dancing after his drop back.  Frankly, it's hard to blame him with how spotty our O-Line was.  Whether it's something he will get over or not is hard to tell, but Big 12 teams started to find out that if they could get pressure on him with blitzes that his accuracy would drop as his footwork fell apart.  I think it's a big reason why he went from 4 INTs his Junior year to 9 INTs his Senior year.  Now, it's not all on him either (or the o-line for that matter).  His WRs, outside of Washington, were plagued with drops this year which caused him to tunnel in on receivers he could trust.  

Physically:

From a purely physical perspective, he's your prototypical NFL QB.  Tall, strong and fairly mobile, he will have no issues in the pocket (as mentioned above).  He's not fast, but he makes good reads when he needs to escape the pocket and he's not exactly slow when he gets outside.  I think the comparisons to Ben Roethlisberger are pretty accurate physically.  He has enough athleticism and mental wherewithal to pick up NFL offenses and adapt to playing under center if needed.  That said, for the first year or two, I definitely expect his accuracy to be higher from the shotgun formation than from under center.  That should change over time, but he will definitely be better suited in a situation where he can sit for a year or two and really start to master the offensive system.

Bottom Line:

When given time, he should be fine in terms of footwork whether under center or in the shotgun.  However, if teams can get pressure on him then it starts to break down for him and leads to sailed passes.  This is why I think it's key that he lands in the right situation.  He's not the kind of QB that's going to come in and lift a team up right away regardless of how bad their offense is.  I think he can become that eventually and honestly, I don't think there's any QBs in this draft who can do that, but he's not at that point yet where teams with glaring holes on offense can take him early and try to build around him.  Hopefully this answers your question.

Your responses have sold me on Rudolph. The Jags have shown enough confidence in Bortles to make him the definite starter next season. However, the contract was structured so cutting him after next season (if he fails) would not be the end of the world. Rudolph will need at least 1 season to learn so it is the perfect situation. If Blake takes another step forward, the Jaguars will have a great dilemma after next season. Trade out of the 1st and get Rudolph in the top part of round 2.

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Oklahoma Aviator...

First off I commend you for your insight.  Thank you.

You touched briefly on his footwork, indicating it is his biggest weakness and is largely a function of being in the shotgun most of the time.

Could you elaborate on this?

What are the footwork struggles a QB typically has transitioning from an offense like he had at OSU and one in which he will likely operate in the NFL?  Do you think these flaws/struggles will be relatively easy for him to overcome?  Does he have athletic limitations that could slow that transition?  Do you think he should sit a year or so before starting?

So there's a few different parts to this and I want to make sure each one is addressed so I'm going to break it down individually.

Footwork:

To be fair he does have good footwork, especially so when he has plenty of time in the pocket.  He has good pocket presence and feel for when and where to climb up or bail out.  It would be hard for him to put up the kind of numbers he did without it.  However, his footwork seems to break down whenever he senses pressure or it trying to make the quick turns to hit the receivers running within a few yards of the line of scrimmage.  Most of the time, it's just him not planting properly, but he will also get "happy feet" sometimes where he seems to bounce up and down which causes the pass to sail a bit on him.  I'm not entirely familiar with the offense run by the Jags, but if receiver screens are a common play, they will have to work a bit on his footwork.

The Shotgun:

This question is one for the ages and I'm not sure it's ever been answered.  It's hard to predict just how Rudolph will adapt to playing under center and how it will affect his footwork, but I'll take a stab at it by comparing it to how well he did in the Pistol formation here.  For those unfamiliar with the Pistol formation, the QB stands about 2 yards behind the Center with a RB behind him and usually (in our offense) flanked by what we call a Cowboy Back (more like a HB or TE).  This puts him not quite at shotgun depth, but definitely not under center either.  From here, he does have to turn his hips and shoulders and complete a drop back (usually 3-5 steps- almost never more than 5) before releasing the ball.  He handles this well and is very fluid in his rotations.  When given time, he is able to set his feet and launch from a good foundation, but the key thing to note here is when he is given time.  He can get flustered a bit by pressure and either not set his feet properly or start dancing after his drop back.  Frankly, it's hard to blame him with how spotty our O-Line was.  Whether it's something he will get over or not is hard to tell, but Big 12 teams started to find out that if they could get pressure on him with blitzes that his accuracy would drop as his footwork fell apart.  I think it's a big reason why he went from 4 INTs his Junior year to 9 INTs his Senior year.  Now, it's not all on him either (or the o-line for that matter).  His WRs, outside of Washington, were plagued with drops this year which caused him to tunnel in on receivers he could trust.  

Physically:

From a purely physical perspective, he's your prototypical NFL QB.  Tall, strong and fairly mobile, he will have no issues in the pocket (as mentioned above).  He's not fast, but he makes good reads when he needs to escape the pocket and he's not exactly slow when he gets outside.  I think the comparisons to Ben Roethlisberger are pretty accurate physically.  He has enough athleticism and mental wherewithal to pick up NFL offenses and adapt to playing under center if needed.  That said, for the first year or two, I definitely expect his accuracy to be higher from the shotgun formation than from under center.  That should change over time, but he will definitely be better suited in a situation where he can sit for a year or two and really start to master the offensive system.

Bottom Line:

When given time, he should be fine in terms of footwork whether under center or in the shotgun.  However, if teams can get pressure on him then it starts to break down for him and leads to sailed passes.  This is why I think it's key that he lands in the right situation.  He's not the kind of QB that's going to come in and lift a team up right away regardless of how bad their offense is.  I think he can become that eventually and honestly, I don't think there's any QBs in this draft who can do that, but he's not at that point yet where teams with glaring holes on offense can take him early and try to build around him.  Hopefully this answers your question.

(Emphasis added)

Thank you for your detailed response.

As to the portion I've highlighted in bold, if I am understanding you correctly, the footwork mechanics in executing a 3-5 step drop from a pistol formation are not too dissimilar from executing the same drop back from under center, and the transition to the pro game for him should be relatively smooth from that perspective?

If you don't mind, I have another question.

When watching draftbreakdown clips of him and games, my initial impression was that he gets rid of the ball really quickly.  Further viewing seemed to show very few times where he actually went through a progression to ind an open receiver.  I do not wish to erroneously give him credit or take away credit from him.

To the best extent possible, could you tell me whether that is a function of the offensive philosophy (i.e. does the offense simplify his reads to half the field), receivers being open quickly such that he doesn't have to go through the progressions, or does he make quick decisions?

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Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!

So there's a few different parts to this and I want to make sure each one is addressed so I'm going to break it down individually.

Footwork:

To be fair he does have good footwork, especially so when he has plenty of time in the pocket.  He has good pocket presence and feel for when and where to climb up or bail out.  It would be hard for him to put up the kind of numbers he did without it.  However, his footwork seems to break down whenever he senses pressure or it trying to make the quick turns to hit the receivers running within a few yards of the line of scrimmage.  Most of the time, it's just him not planting properly, but he will also get "happy feet" sometimes where he seems to bounce up and down which causes the pass to sail a bit on him.  I'm not entirely familiar with the offense run by the Jags, but if receiver screens are a common play, they will have to work a bit on his footwork.

The Shotgun:

This question is one for the ages and I'm not sure it's ever been answered.  It's hard to predict just how Rudolph will adapt to playing under center and how it will affect his footwork, but I'll take a stab at it by comparing it to how well he did in the Pistol formation here.  For those unfamiliar with the Pistol formation, the QB stands about 2 yards behind the Center with a RB behind him and usually (in our offense) flanked by what we call a Cowboy Back (more like a HB or TE).  This puts him not quite at shotgun depth, but definitely not under center either.  From here, he does have to turn his hips and shoulders and complete a drop back (usually 3-5 steps- almost never more than 5) before releasing the ball.  He handles this well and is very fluid in his rotations.  When given time, he is able to set his feet and launch from a good foundation, but the key thing to note here is when he is given time.  He can get flustered a bit by pressure and either not set his feet properly or start dancing after his drop back.  Frankly, it's hard to blame him with how spotty our O-Line was.  Whether it's something he will get over or not is hard to tell, but Big 12 teams started to find out that if they could get pressure on him with blitzes that his accuracy would drop as his footwork fell apart.  I think it's a big reason why he went from 4 INTs his Junior year to 9 INTs his Senior year.  Now, it's not all on him either (or the o-line for that matter).  His WRs, outside of Washington, were plagued with drops this year which caused him to tunnel in on receivers he could trust.  

Physically:

From a purely physical perspective, he's your prototypical NFL QB.  Tall, strong and fairly mobile, he will have no issues in the pocket (as mentioned above).  He's not fast, but he makes good reads when he needs to escape the pocket and he's not exactly slow when he gets outside.  I think the comparisons to Ben Roethlisberger are pretty accurate physically.  He has enough athleticism and mental wherewithal to pick up NFL offenses and adapt to playing under center if needed.  That said, for the first year or two, I definitely expect his accuracy to be higher from the shotgun formation than from under center.  That should change over time, but he will definitely be better suited in a situation where he can sit for a year or two and really start to master the offensive system.

Bottom Line:

When given time, he should be fine in terms of footwork whether under center or in the shotgun.  However, if teams can get pressure on him then it starts to break down for him and leads to sailed passes.  This is why I think it's key that he lands in the right situation.  He's not the kind of QB that's going to come in and lift a team up right away regardless of how bad their offense is.  I think he can become that eventually and honestly, I don't think there's any QBs in this draft who can do that, but he's not at that point yet where teams with glaring holes on offense can take him early and try to build around him.  Hopefully this answers your question.

(Emphasis added)

Thank you for your detailed response.

As to the portion I've highlighted in bold, if I am understanding you correctly, the footwork mechanics in executing a 3-5 step drop from a pistol formation are not too dissimilar from executing the same drop back from under center, and the transition to the pro game for him should be relatively smooth from that perspective?

If you don't mind, I have another question.

When watching draftbreakdown clips of him and games, my initial impression was that he gets rid of the ball really quickly.  Further viewing seemed to show very few times where he actually went through a progression to ind an open receiver.  I do not wish to erroneously give him credit or take away credit from him.

To the best extent possible, could you tell me whether that is a function of the offensive philosophy (i.e. does the offense simplify his reads to half the field), receivers being open quickly such that he doesn't have to go through the progressions, or does he make quick decisions?

Good questions. 

Comparisons between Pistol and Under Center Formations regarding footwork:

Yes, they are very similar in terms of mechanics.  Let's talk about the Pistol formation for a bit.  The Pistol was popularized out of Nevada and picked up and adapted by our coaching staff in 2010.  Calling it the Diamond Formation, the QB lines up closer to the line of scrimmage flanked by TEs and was used to introduce a power run game to an offense designed to run out of the shotgun formation and to help set up the play action pass. What this does is get the ball to the QB quicker post-snap (versus a traditional shotgun formation) and allows the TEs to lead block for the RB, or gives the defense time to read the run and bite on play actions.  Now it's similar to a regular, under center approach, due to the QB having to turn his hips and drop back regardless of whether he's going to throw the ball or hand it off.  While the number of steps needed to get to depth are obviously different between the two, mechanically speaking the QB still has to rotate his hips and shoulders in the same way whether he's operating out of the Pistol or under center.  From a footwork point-of-view, it should be a smooth process, but the biggest concern will be the mechanics of snap from under center.  On that, I really can't say how well he will do.  I honestly think he ran less than 10 plays under center throughout his career at OSU.

Quick reads:

Yes, he excels at getting rid of the ball quickly and that is a major function of the offense he ran at OSU.  The offense here is predicated on Run-Pass Options (RPOs) as well as the receivers reading the defense and choosing a route from their route tree.  What this means is that Rudolph often knows where he's going to go with the ball before the ball is even snapped.  Before the snap, he accounts for the alignment of the defense and determines whether or not he will hand the ball off (do the numbers favor my blockers or not?), and if the numbers favor him throwing the ball he will look at the alignment of the secondary.  If the Safeties are shadowing a certain way or the CBs are playing outside or inside, he's making notes of that and anticipating his receivers will run the part of the route tree that exposes these holes in the defensive alignment.  This results in the ball getting out of his hands quickly and allowing our receivers to get YAC, or he knows that he will have to wait a little longer because he is anticipating his receiver will get open on the deep routes. Ideally, he will not have to go through his progressions but sometimes that is required based on what the defense does post-snap.  Now, like I said before, he does seem to get flustered if the defense is able to get to him and it doesn't just affect his footwork but also causes him to go through reads too quickly or even lock in on one particular receiver.  While most QBs have that problem, he will need to work on that as he goes through his first year or two in the NFL.  While NFL offense are generally more structured than what he had at OSU, many NFL offenses are employing RPOs (see: Philly this last year) and I think Rudolph will do well in offenses that use them.

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(Emphasis added)

Thank you for your detailed response.

As to the portion I've highlighted in bold, if I am understanding you correctly, the footwork mechanics in executing a 3-5 step drop from a pistol formation are not too dissimilar from executing the same drop back from under center, and the transition to the pro game for him should be relatively smooth from that perspective?

If you don't mind, I have another question.

When watching draftbreakdown clips of him and games, my initial impression was that he gets rid of the ball really quickly.  Further viewing seemed to show very few times where he actually went through a progression to ind an open receiver.  I do not wish to erroneously give him credit or take away credit from him.

To the best extent possible, could you tell me whether that is a function of the offensive philosophy (i.e. does the offense simplify his reads to half the field), receivers being open quickly such that he doesn't have to go through the progressions, or does he make quick decisions?

Good questions. 

Comparisons between Pistol and Under Center Formations regarding footwork:

Yes, they are very similar in terms of mechanics.  Let's talk about the Pistol formation for a bit.  The Pistol was popularized out of Nevada and picked up and adapted by our coaching staff in 2010.  Calling it the Diamond Formation, the QB lines up closer to the line of scrimmage flanked by TEs and was used to introduce a power run game to an offense designed to run out of the shotgun formation and to help set up the play action pass.  What this does is get the ball to the QB quicker post-snap (versus a traditional shotgun formation) and allows the TEs to lead block for the RB, or gives the defense time to read the run and bite on play actions.  Now it's similar to a regular, under center approach, due to the QB having to turn his hips and drop back regardless of whether he's going to throw the ball or hand it off.  While the number of steps needed to get to depth are obviously different between the two, mechanically speaking the QB still has to rotate his hips and shoulders in the same way whether he's operating out of the Pistol or under center.  From a footwork point-of-view, it should be a smooth process, but the biggest concern will be the mechanics of snap from under center.  On that, I really can't say how well he will do.  I honestly think he ran less than 10 plays under center throughout his career at OSU.

Quick reads:

Yes, he excels at getting rid of the ball quickly and that is a major function of the offense he ran at OSU.  The offense here is predicated on Run-Pass Options (RPOs) as well as the receivers reading the defense and choosing a route from their route tree.  What this means is that Rudolph often knows where he's going to go with the ball before the ball is even snapped.  Before the snap, he accounts for the alignment of the defense and determines whether or not he will hand the ball off (do the numbers favor my blockers or not?), and if the numbers favor him throwing the ball he will look at the alignment of the secondary.  If the Safeties are shadowing a certain way or the CBs are playing outside or inside, he's making notes of that and anticipating his receivers will run the part of the route tree that exposes these holes in the defensive alignment.  This results in the ball getting out of his hands quickly and allowing our receivers to get YAC, or he knows that he will have to wait a little longer because he is anticipating his receiver will get open on the deep routes. Ideally, he will not have to go through his progressions but sometimes that is required based on what the defense does post-snap.  Now, like I said before, he does seem to get flustered if the defense is able to get to him and it doesn't just affect his footwork but also causes him to go through reads too quickly or even lock in on one particular receiver.  While most QBs have that problem, he will need to work on that as he goes through his first year or two in the NFL.  While NFL offense are generally more structured than what he had at OSU, many NFL offenses are employing RPOs (see: Philly this last year) and I think Rudolph will do well in offenses that use them.

Thanks a million for the responses!  Quality stuff!

---

 

Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!

Good questions. 

Comparisons between Pistol and Under Center Formations regarding footwork:

Yes, they are very similar in terms of mechanics.  Let's talk about the Pistol formation for a bit.  The Pistol was popularized out of Nevada and picked up and adapted by our coaching staff in 2010.  Calling it the Diamond Formation, the QB lines up closer to the line of scrimmage flanked by TEs and was used to introduce a power run game to an offense designed to run out of the shotgun formation and to help set up the play action pass.  What this does is get the ball to the QB quicker post-snap (versus a traditional shotgun formation) and allows the TEs to lead block for the RB, or gives the defense time to read the run and bite on play actions.  Now it's similar to a regular, under center approach, due to the QB having to turn his hips and drop back regardless of whether he's going to throw the ball or hand it off.  While the number of steps needed to get to depth are obviously different between the two, mechanically speaking the QB still has to rotate his hips and shoulders in the same way whether he's operating out of the Pistol or under center.  From a footwork point-of-view, it should be a smooth process, but the biggest concern will be the mechanics of snap from under center.  On that, I really can't say how well he will do.  I honestly think he ran less than 10 plays under center throughout his career at OSU.

Quick reads:

Yes, he excels at getting rid of the ball quickly and that is a major function of the offense he ran at OSU.  The offense here is predicated on Run-Pass Options (RPOs) as well as the receivers reading the defense and choosing a route from their route tree.  What this means is that Rudolph often knows where he's going to go with the ball before the ball is even snapped.  Before the snap, he accounts for the alignment of the defense and determines whether or not he will hand the ball off (do the numbers favor my blockers or not?), and if the numbers favor him throwing the ball he will look at the alignment of the secondary.  If the Safeties are shadowing a certain way or the CBs are playing outside or inside, he's making notes of that and anticipating his receivers will run the part of the route tree that exposes these holes in the defensive alignment.  This results in the ball getting out of his hands quickly and allowing our receivers to get YAC, or he knows that he will have to wait a little longer because he is anticipating his receiver will get open on the deep routes. Ideally, he will not have to go through his progressions but sometimes that is required based on what the defense does post-snap.  Now, like I said before, he does seem to get flustered if the defense is able to get to him and it doesn't just affect his footwork but also causes him to go through reads too quickly or even lock in on one particular receiver.  While most QBs have that problem, he will need to work on that as he goes through his first year or two in the NFL.  While NFL offense are generally more structured than what he had at OSU, many NFL offenses are employing RPOs (see: Philly this last year) and I think Rudolph will do well in offenses that use them.

Thanks a million for the responses!  Quality stuff!

Any time!  I'm a football junkie and love to talk about this stuff, so if there are any more questions, fire away and I'll do my best to answer them.  This is an awesome site, btw.  I've been browsing around for the last little while and it's very active and been a fun read.

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Reading that, it sounds like he might be the Steelers pick...

I just can't see it. The Steelers have huge needs at Safety, ILB and NT.

And I've heard they actually like Josh Dobbs

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you are talking about the 6th best QB... I'm not saying that's a bad thing bc he is likely worthy of a 1st round pick... but 6 1st round QB's is insane... it never plays out like that. Teams have other needs. I wouldn't be surprised if 2 of the top 6 don't get drafted in the 1st round. Rosen, Darnold, and Allen should go in the 1st but I think 2 of Jackson, Mayfield or Rudolph will make it to the 2nd round.

By the way, the consensus at this point is that he would be the 5th best, not the 6th best QB behind
Rosen
Darnold
Allen
Mayfield

My list is a bit different.
I'm no sold on Allen, he's down on my list below Jackson.

Rosen
Mayfield
Rudolph
Darnold
Jackson
Allen

I think all 6 COULD go in the first, but I kinda doubt it.
Jets, Bills, Browns, AZ are all in play for first round QBs to compete to start or surely start right away.
Nola, Jville, Miami, NYG, and Washington should be in play for 2nd tier QBs ready to take over in a year or two.
Pitt, Baltimore could also be in play for QB in the round 2-3 range.

Of the 6 guys I listed I think Jets, Browns, Bills, Cards, Miami, and Jville get them
Guys like Lauretta and some of the other guys who have had their names as possible day 2 guys probably end up in places like New England, Pitt, and Baltimore.

Just my guess how it plays out. And I think if Jax can land Rudolph with 29 they will take him.
But I also wouldn't be surprised to see us move up from 29 to 15-20 range if a guy like Mayfield slides there.

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I spent a lot of time yesterday watching draftbreakdown videos of Rudolph.

He'll need to sit for a year, but I think he could become really special.

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