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Stock Market Under Trump

(This post was last modified: 01-31-2020, 05:02 PM by HURRICANE!!!.)

Coronavirus ---  shifted 90% of our 401k to bonds for the time being.
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(01-31-2020, 05:01 PM)HURRICANE!!! Wrote: Coronavirus ---  shifted 90% of our 401k to bonds for the time being.

Xi purposely spread this virus in an attempt to tank the Trump economy.

I picked the wrong day to stop sniffing glue.
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(This post was last modified: 01-31-2020, 05:43 PM by HURRICANE!!!.)

(01-31-2020, 05:32 PM)StroudCrowd1 Wrote:
(01-31-2020, 05:01 PM)HURRICANE!!! Wrote: Coronavirus ---  shifted 90% of our 401k to bonds for the time being.

Xi purposely spread this virus in an attempt to tank the Trump economy.

I picked the wrong day to stop sniffing glue.

Hate to say it but it's a good opportunity to go low risk (bonds) then move $$ back into Large Cap Stocks in 2 weeks when things get under control.

The fact that airlines, cruise lines, and cities (within China) are under shutdown is totally crazy.  I shifted 25% of our funds yesterday and did another 65% today --- not quite beating the curve but protecting what we have.

This may actually benefit Trump as there will be a huge boom during the general election when the Dow hits 30,000 ---- but then again, the people benefiting off of the market mostly reside in blue states ---- SO IRONIC.
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(01-31-2020, 05:01 PM)HURRICANE!!! Wrote: Coronavirus ---  shifted 90% of our 401k to bonds for the time being.

(01-31-2020, 05:42 PM)HURRICANE!!! Wrote:
(01-31-2020, 05:32 PM)StroudCrowd1 Wrote: Xi purposely spread this virus in an attempt to tank the Trump economy.

I picked the wrong day to stop sniffing glue.

Hate to say it but it's a good opportunity to go low risk (bonds) then move $$ back into Large Cap Stocks in 2 weeks when things get under control.

The fact that airlines, cruise lines, and cities (within China) are under shutdown is totally crazy.  I shifted 25% of our funds yesterday and did another 65% today --- not quite beating the curve but protecting what we have.

This may actually benefit Trump as there will be a huge boom during the general election when the Dow hits 30,000 ---- but then again, the people benefiting off of the market mostly reside in blue states ---- SO IRONIC.

Might be a good decision, might be a bit of "knee jerk".  I've held steady and haven't moved anything since I'm in it longer term.  I'll wait and see what the market does this next week.  If it dips down any more then I may take profits and buy the dip.  I predict a recovery though.

I'm no expert, but I would not exactly rely on bonds at this point (look at the 10 year treasury yield).  Your money isn't really making much.  While bonds will do well in a "normal dip", the sell-off today is more about global events.  You can't really pinpoint a sector or industry that will do well during this brief dip, but for "safety" I would look more to the "consumer staples" sector.

Technology has been "on fire" lately, but it is heavily impacted by the coronavirus in China.  Given that global event, the healthcare sector is worth a look.  I've been long on Technology and more specifically Aerospace and Defense, and have made a lot of money.  The sector has been hurt a bit because of Boeing's troubles, but it will come back as long as you look at it long term.

The bottom line is don't rely on day-to-day moves in the market (unless you are a day trader).  Think longer term.


There are 10 kinds of people in this world.  Those who understand binary and those who don't.
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(01-31-2020, 05:42 PM)HURRICANE!!! Wrote:
(01-31-2020, 05:32 PM)StroudCrowd1 Wrote: Xi purposely spread this virus in an attempt to tank the Trump economy.

I picked the wrong day to stop sniffing glue.

Hate to say it but it's a good opportunity to go low risk (bonds) then move $$ back into Large Cap Stocks in 2 weeks when things get under control.

The fact that airlines, cruise lines, and cities (within China) are under shutdown is totally crazy.  I shifted 25% of our funds yesterday and did another 65% today --- not quite beating the curve but protecting what we have.

This may actually benefit Trump as there will be a huge boom during the general election when the Dow hits 30,000 ---- but then again, the people benefiting off of the market mostly reside in blue states ---- SO IRONIC.

I dont have the time nor energy to watch it that closely. Besides, the capital gain/loss mess come tax time hardly seems worth the headache for me to try and time the ups and downs of the market.
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(01-31-2020, 05:42 PM)HURRICANE!!! Wrote:
(01-31-2020, 05:32 PM)StroudCrowd1 Wrote: Xi purposely spread this virus in an attempt to tank the Trump economy.

I picked the wrong day to stop sniffing glue.

Hate to say it but it's a good opportunity to go low risk (bonds) then move $$ back into Large Cap Stocks in 2 weeks when things get under control.

The fact that airlines, cruise lines, and cities (within China) are under shutdown is totally crazy.  I shifted 25% of our funds yesterday and did another 65% today --- not quite beating the curve but protecting what we have.

This may actually benefit Trump as there will be a huge boom during the general election when the Dow hits 30,000 ---- but then again, the people benefiting off of the market mostly reside in blue states ---- SO IRONIC.

To double down on the irony, the guy who wants to take it all away from them is currently polling as their leading candidate. You can't make this stuff up.
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(This post was last modified: 02-01-2020, 02:37 AM by pirkster.)

If you aren't beating the curve, then you don't know what you're doing. Leave it alone in a ETF that has a good 1, 3, 5, and 10 year average vs the market and you can beat the averages. A lot of funds out there above 10% annual average growth.

I found a bell cow fund that helped me grow 45% last year, while only using a fraction of my overall investments to build it.

This year starting off good, too. Today, a day most took a hit - I actually took some profit (+16% on a particular fund for the month/+10% on the day alone) and picked up a few new ETFs I'd been eyeing a while since they dipped.

The leveraged and leveraged inverse aren't for the faint of heart, that's for sure!
"You do your own thing in your own time. You should be proud."
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I personally wouldn't be in the market now, though I help manage a parent's retirement account, which is mostly old-school companies paying a steady dividend. That works well because the income is steady no matter what the market does, and there is good diversification among sectors, so when one is down others tend to be up. A global meltdown wouldn't be good, but as long as the real economy is functioning it should be okay.
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(This post was last modified: 02-01-2020, 02:33 AM by pirkster.)

There is always opportunity for anyone who seeks it. Always. Regardless of circumstance.

It's only a question of how bad do you want it, and how hard you're willing to work, and eagerness to learn.

If you're looking for preserving assets and mitigating risk, then yes... that's a wise choice to have little exposure to volatility. Dividends can be as good as growth as long as you DRIP.

But if you've got at least 10 years before retirement, there's no reason to get out completely. That's the reward of risk. There's no reward without risk. There is no luck.

ETFs with good track records are the low hanging fruit that make investing really, really easy. Again, it's your comfort level with risk. If you are averse to risk, then you will have a proportionate cap on your growth as well. There's nothing wrong with that if that fits your strategy in reaching your goals.
"You do your own thing in your own time. You should be proud."
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(01-31-2020, 07:21 PM)homebiscuit Wrote:
(01-31-2020, 05:42 PM)HURRICANE!!! Wrote: Hate to say it but it's a good opportunity to go low risk (bonds) then move $$ back into Large Cap Stocks in 2 weeks when things get under control.

The fact that airlines, cruise lines, and cities (within China) are under shutdown is totally crazy.  I shifted 25% of our funds yesterday and did another 65% today --- not quite beating the curve but protecting what we have.

This may actually benefit Trump as there will be a huge boom during the general election when the Dow hits 30,000 ---- but then again, the people benefiting off of the market mostly reside in blue states ---- SO IRONIC.

To double down on the irony, the guy who wants to take it all away from them is currently polling as their leading candidate. You can't make this stuff up.

Not everyone in a blue state is blue.  

Not everyone who is sick of Trump is willing to vote for Bernie Sanders, either.  (raising my hand)
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(01-31-2020, 08:41 PM)pirkster Wrote: If you aren't beating the curve, then you don't know what you're doing.  Leave it alone in a ETF that has a good 1, 3, 5, and 10 year average vs the market and you can beat the averages.  A lot of funds out there above 10% annual average growth.

I found a bell cow fund that helped me grow 45% last year, while only using a fraction of my overall investments to build it.

This year starting off good, too.  Today, a day most took a hit - I actually took some profit (+16% on a particular fund for the month/+10% on the day alone) and picked up a few new ETFs I'd been eyeing a while since they dipped.

The leveraged and leveraged inverse aren't for the faint of heart, that's for sure!

"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered."  

Why do all that work trying to beat the average, and risk doing worse than the average, when you can get the average for no work at all?  Just buy the index and hold it forever and you will do really really well.  I know it's boring, and people like to think they're smarter than the average investor, and they just have to "do something," but in most cases, people do the wrong thing.  That's a fact.  Most investors trail the market because they cannot resist buying, selling, moving their assets, and just in general trying to be smarter than average.  They think they can predict the future.  There's no need for that.  Just buy the index, hold it forever, and you are 100% assured of achieving the market average.  And that will be pretty darn good.  

I am no paragon of virtue on this subject, by the way.
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(02-01-2020, 02:32 AM)pirkster Wrote: There is always opportunity for anyone who seeks it.  Always.  Regardless of circumstance.

It's only a question of how bad do you want it, and how hard you're willing to work, and eagerness to learn.

If you're looking for preserving assets and mitigating risk, then yes... that's a wise choice to have little exposure to volatility.  Dividends can be as good as growth as long as you DRIP.

But if you've got at least 10 years before retirement, there's no reason to get out completely.  That's the reward of risk.  There's no reward without risk.  There is no luck.

ETFs with good track records are the low hanging fruit that make investing really, really easy.  Again, it's your comfort level with risk.  If you are averse to risk, then you will have a proportionate cap on your growth as well.  There's nothing wrong with that if that fits your strategy in reaching your goals.

Oh, I know about active investing; I was a day trader for several years and have had a trading account since the 80's.  Back when you'd get dressed up to meet with your broker in a fancy office, LOL.  And he'd take 3% of every trade off the top.  This was back when you could get 15% interest just parking dough in a bank.
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(This post was last modified: 02-02-2020, 01:10 AM by navyjagfan.)

(02-01-2020, 08:39 AM)The Real Marty Wrote:
(01-31-2020, 08:41 PM)pirkster Wrote: If you aren't beating the curve, then you don't know what you're doing.  Leave it alone in a ETF that has a good 1, 3, 5, and 10 year average vs the market and you can beat the averages.  A lot of funds out there above 10% annual average growth.

I found a bell cow fund that helped me grow 45% last year, while only using a fraction of my overall investments to build it.

This year starting off good, too.  Today, a day most took a hit - I actually took some profit (+16% on a particular fund for the month/+10% on the day alone) and picked up a few new ETFs I'd been eyeing a while since they dipped.

The leveraged and leveraged inverse aren't for the faint of heart, that's for sure!

"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered."  

Why do all that work trying to beat the average, and risk doing worse than the average, when you can get the average for no work at all?  Just buy the index and hold it forever and you will do really really well.  I know it's boring, and people like to think they're smarter than the average investor, and they just have to "do something," but in most cases, people do the wrong thing.  That's a fact.  Most investors trail the market because they cannot resist buying, selling, moving their assets, and just in general trying to be smarter than average.  They think they can predict the future.  There's no need for that.  Just buy the index, hold it forever, and you are 100% assured of achieving the market average.  And that will be pretty darn good.  

I am no paragon of virtue on this subject, by the way.


That's what I've been doing for the past 20 years and will continue for the next 20 more. A few index funds is all you need.  Just keep investing and watch your portfolio grow.  No excessive work, no excessive risk, extremely low fees.  

Gotta love the gains since Trump became president.  Whether you like him or not - he's been great for the market and the economy.
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(02-02-2020, 01:09 AM)navyjagfan Wrote:
(02-01-2020, 08:39 AM)The Real Marty Wrote: "Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered."  

Why do all that work trying to beat the average, and risk doing worse than the average, when you can get the average for no work at all?  Just buy the index and hold it forever and you will do really really well.  I know it's boring, and people like to think they're smarter than the average investor, and they just have to "do something," but in most cases, people do the wrong thing.  That's a fact.  Most investors trail the market because they cannot resist buying, selling, moving their assets, and just in general trying to be smarter than average.  They think they can predict the future.  There's no need for that.  Just buy the index, hold it forever, and you are 100% assured of achieving the market average.  And that will be pretty darn good.  

I am no paragon of virtue on this subject, by the way.


That's what I've been doing for the past 20 years and will continue for the next 20 more. A few index funds is all you need.  Just keep investing and watch your portfolio grow.  No excessive work, no excessive risk, extremely low fees.  

Gotta love the gains since Trump became president.  Whether you like him or not - he's been great for the market and the economy.

The economy and market that will crash in 3-4 years
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(This post was last modified: 02-02-2020, 07:22 AM by The Real Marty.)

(02-02-2020, 04:02 AM)JackCity Wrote:
(02-02-2020, 01:09 AM)navyjagfan Wrote: That's what I've been doing for the past 20 years and will continue for the next 20 more. A few index funds is all you need.  Just keep investing and watch your portfolio grow.  No excessive work, no excessive risk, extremely low fees.  

Gotta love the gains since Trump became president.  Whether you like him or not - he's been great for the market and the economy.

The economy and market that will crash in 3-4 years

It's a pretty safe bet that at some point in the future, the market will crash.  It always does.  And it's also a pretty safe bet that at some time after that, it will be higher than ever.

As for Trump, he has built this economy on huge deficits and repealing regulations.  I would rather he had built this economy on a more solid foundation than that.  Because our government debt is becoming very very dangerous.  And I like clean air and water, too.
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(This post was last modified: 02-02-2020, 09:15 AM by StroudCrowd1.)

(02-02-2020, 07:19 AM)The Real Marty Wrote:
(02-02-2020, 04:02 AM)JackCity Wrote: The economy and market that will crash in 3-4 years

It's a pretty safe bet that at some point in the future, the market will crash.  It always does.  And it's also a pretty safe bet that at some time after that, it will be higher than ever.

As for Trump, he has built this economy on huge deficits and repealing regulations.  I would rather he had built this economy on a more solid foundation than that.  Because our government debt is becoming very very dangerous.  And I like clean air and water, too.


Economies can't thrive with over-regulation.

(02-02-2020, 04:02 AM)JackCity Wrote:
(02-02-2020, 01:09 AM)navyjagfan Wrote: That's what I've been doing for the past 20 years and will continue for the next 20 more. A few index funds is all you need.  Just keep investing and watch your portfolio grow.  No excessive work, no excessive risk, extremely low fees.  

Gotta love the gains since Trump became president.  Whether you like him or not - he's been great for the market and the economy.

The economy and market that will crash in 3-4 years

So will the real estate market. Does that mean we should all panic and sell our houses today and rent?
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The difference between high achievers and low achievers is how high or how low you set expectations for yourself. If you demand no better, you will get no better. The opposite is also true. Are you focused on results or are you focused on excuses? This is at the heart of the difference between the left and right.
"You do your own thing in your own time. You should be proud."
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(02-02-2020, 01:09 AM)navyjagfan Wrote:
(02-01-2020, 08:39 AM)The Real Marty Wrote: "Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered."  

Why do all that work trying to beat the average, and risk doing worse than the average, when you can get the average for no work at all?  Just buy the index and hold it forever and you will do really really well.  I know it's boring, and people like to think they're smarter than the average investor, and they just have to "do something," but in most cases, people do the wrong thing.  That's a fact.  Most investors trail the market because they cannot resist buying, selling, moving their assets, and just in general trying to be smarter than average.  They think they can predict the future.  There's no need for that.  Just buy the index, hold it forever, and you are 100% assured of achieving the market average.  And that will be pretty darn good.  

I am no paragon of virtue on this subject, by the way.


That's what I've been doing for the past 20 years and will continue for the next 20 more. A few index funds is all you need.  Just keep investing and watch your portfolio grow.  No excessive work, no excessive risk, extremely low fees.  

Gotta love the gains since Trump became president.  Whether you like him or not - he's been great for the market and the economy.

This is the heart of what I do as well.  I use only a small fraction of it to harvest additional returns.  I regularly take that profit, and reinvest in EFTs that have a history of outperforming the indexes.

It's a bit absurd to think it's just a few clicks of a mouse, a few keyboard strokes.  But that's also ignoring the decision making process that's made it work for me.  It's all about refining the process and being disciplined.
"You do your own thing in your own time. You should be proud."
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(01-31-2020, 05:01 PM)HURRICANE!!! Wrote: Coronavirus ---  shifted 90% of our 401k to bonds for the time being.

Rebalanced to 35% Large Cap, 27% Mid Cap, and 38% Bonds.     Got a warning about excessive trading so I'm pretty much restricted from trading until Q2 (April) or I can do 1 more trade in Q1 and face a 1-year trade restriction period.

I guess I'll stick with my diverse mix for now and see how things evolve moving into April.  Hoping to retire in 3 years (or 4 years max).   I almost hate to say it but 1 more Trump term would most likely get me there.  Bernie scares the heck out of me.  Biden would likely be status quo.
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(02-24-2020, 11:02 AM)HURRICANE!!! Wrote:
(01-31-2020, 05:01 PM)HURRICANE!!! Wrote: Coronavirus ---  shifted 90% of our 401k to bonds for the time being.

Rebalanced to 35% Large Cap, 27% Mid Cap, and 38% Bonds.     Got a warning about excessive trading so I'm pretty much restricted from trading until Q2 (April) or I can do 1 more trade in Q1 and face a 1-year trade restriction period.

I guess I'll stick with my diverse mix for now and see how things evolve moving into April.  Hoping to retire in 3 years (or 4 years max).   I almost hate to say it but 1 more Trump term would most likely get me there.  Bernie scares the heck out of me.  Biden would likely be status quo.

That is a lot of movement for you with such an early retirement window! Your taxes must be a nightmare lol
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