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Dante Fowler: Trade? Option? (meged threads)

(This post was last modified: 02-11-2018, 04:00 PM by JNev.)

I'd like to see them give Fowler more PT next year, especially as Calais ages more. He clearly didn't have much left in the tank in the playoffs, so giving him more rest and Fowler more PT could be the best of both worlds
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(02-11-2018, 03:36 PM)JNev Wrote: I'd like to see them give Fowler more PT next year, especially as Calais ages more. He clearly didn't have much left in the tank in the playoffs, so giving him ore rest and Fowler more PT could be the best of both worlds

Agree, Calias seemed to wear down a bit toward season end.  Fowler should get more playing time this year.  I dont see Fowler going anywhere
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(This post was last modified: 02-11-2018, 04:05 PM by Upper.)

(02-11-2018, 03:36 PM)JNev Wrote: I'd like to see them give Fowler more PT next year, especially as Calais ages more. He clearly didn't have much left in the tank in the playoffs, so giving him ore rest and Fowler more PT could be the best of both worlds

Ok I didn't want to throw any cold water on Calais because I do love him, but I think that if you look at the numbers there is some stuff to be worried about. As I already hinted at, his overall pressure number was not otherworldly so we should already expect a dip in sacks next year. When you look deeper though, he had 9 of his sacks against the abysmal Texans and Colts olines (10 if you throw in the Bengals abomination of an oline). He only had 4.5 sacks in the other 14 games. I don't think him wearing out was the problem.

I think he'll still be a very good player for us because he contributes a lot more than just a pass rush to our team, but it kind of reeks of the Bobby McCray 10 sack season where we all thought we had found a new franchise pass rusher but it turns out like 8 of those came against the worst of the worst olines too. Campbell's career sack lines have wavered in the 6-8 range every other year of his career and I think it's more fair to him to expect that type of high single digit sacks going forward as opposed to the outlier that was this season.
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(02-11-2018, 03:36 PM)JNev Wrote: I'd like to see them give Fowler more PT next year, especially as Calais ages more. He clearly didn't have much left in the tank in the playoffs, so giving him more rest and Fowler more PT could be the best of both worlds

I don't think he needs more Physical Therapy but I guess it wouldn't hurt.  .... j/k lol

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I was reading an article today about how the Jags are debating whether to pick up Dante Fowler's 5th year option which is set at $14.2 million. Any way you look at it, that's a lot of money for a 3rd DE, especially for a team with so much money committed to other players. With that said, what do we do? Do we decline the option and let him play out 2018, risking losing him to free agency after the season? If that's the case, the very best we can hope for is a 3rd round compensatory pick in return. Do we pick up the option, placing a huge burden on the 2019 cap and probably being forced to cut some valuable players to keep him for that season? Do we try and extend him for a slightly smaller cap number, yet still it will be a big one which could force us to make some tough cuts to other star players? Do we trade him now, losing a great young piece to the defense, yet we likely add a 2nd round selection, take pressure off the future cap and we can use that pick to either trade up or replace Fowler in this draft? There is no easy answer here. Personally, I'm leaning towards dealing him. I hate to do it, but $14.2 million is a huge number and even if we extend him before the 2019 season, we're probably looking at no less than a cap number of $12 million, if we are lucky. I'd hate to lose him, but we can trade him now and get a 2nd rounder or not pick up his option and lose him after the season getting a 3rd round compensatory pick, (if we are lucky.) At $14.2 million, I just don't see how picking up that option is even feasible. I don't wanna lose any starters on defense. We finally built that unit to get it where we want it and Ngakoue and Campbell are entrenched as starters. As much as it would hurt, trading him now would allow us to find Dante's replacement and there is some depth at pass rushing DE/LB late in the draft. Any thoughts?
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https://www.duvalpride.com/showthread.php?tid=26952
 

Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!





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I say do the same thing we did with Blake. Pick up the option just in case, then work out a deal that saves us money
IT WAS ALWAYS THE JAGS
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(04-21-2018, 09:41 AM)The Real Marty Wrote: You can call him "a backup DE" or you can call him "a 10-sack DE."   Backup or no backup, he got 10 sacks last year.  

So,
1) Deal him.
2) Extend him.
3) Keep him for one year.  

Extending him is probably out of the question, because of the cost.  So what would we get in a trade?  Keep in mind, whoever trades for him would have the same alternatives we have- extend him, or keep him for one year.   So I would guess in a trade we might get a 3rd round pick.  

So, what do you want, 10 sacks in 2019 and then he's gone, or a 3rd round pick?

Give me option A.

This is a team close to the Super Bowl.  His presence on the roster could help us get there.  He had two sacks against the Patriots in the AFC title game, and now they are without Nate Solder.  He could be huge against the Patriots here in week 2, and more important should Campell and/or Ngakoue get hurt.

If he leaves as a UFA, we could get a compensatory pick for him as high as a 3rd round pick, anyway.

But how much longer do we keep a 32 year old Calais Campbell?
 

Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!





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In a weird spot where I'm not prepared to give him the option but also not prepared to sell low on him. I'd need a first or something like a 2nd and 3rd to trade him.

Keep him over summer and see how he develops , see how he plays over the first few weeks of the season then either trade or try get an extension done. If he's not producing much we might be able to convince him to sign a cheapened deal.
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(This post was last modified: 04-21-2018, 10:02 AM by flgatorsandjags.)

He is our 3rd DE this year. Next year Calais will be 33, cut Campbell and keep Fowler next year
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I think you simply let 2018 play out on the field (don't pick up the option) and the decision may become easier.
The money being spent on Dareus, Campbell and Jackson is prohibitive.

The first and easiest way to help find a way to keep Fowler (and still re-sign the more obvious keepers of Jack/Ramsey/Ngakoue) is to move on from Dareus in 2019 when the "out" in his contract comes up.
That likely means going all in on a run stuffing DT/NT in the 2019 draft (unless they surprise us and draft one next week.)
Campbell, who will be 33 by week one of the 2019 season, also has an out in his contract after this season. Will he show any signs of father time nipping at his heels? Does Smoot flash enough this year to give us confidence to move on?

There are just too many unanswered questions for me right now to want to deal Fowler away. I'd like to find a way to keep all of the contributing young players on this defense and I think saying goodbye to a vet (maybe two) and replacing them with draft picks may be all that is required.
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He represents good depth. I’d be inclined to not do the option and let 2018 play out. You can then offer a fair contract on said performance.
[Image: Ben-Roethlisberger_Lerentee-McCary-Sack_...ayoffs.jpg]
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I have asked a version of this question in another thread, but I can't find it, so I will post the current version of this tangentially related hypothetical.

Suppose the Packers brass decided they need an edge rusher and are all in on Marcus Davenport, but he is taken off the board before their pick. They do not like any other edge rusher in this class, and decide to offer their first round pick straight up for Fowler.

That would give the Jaguars picks 14 and 29 in the first round.

1. Do you take the trade?
2. If so, what position do you address at pick 14? What position do you address at 29?

3. Would your answers change if the trade was not straight up for a first round pick, but an inducement for a swap of first round draft position, where the Jaguars sit only at pick 14 in the first round, not at 14 and 29?
 

Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!





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I’d keep him.

If we’re going to make another run at the Super Bowl we need to have quality depth on the defensive line and while he’s not set the world on fire yet, he’s still a very good player and one opponents have to worry about.

And as with Blake, there is no harm in picking up the option.

If he doesn’t work out this season we can still decide not to take up that option.

If he does work out, then we offer him a longer term deal (and in that scenario, why wouldn’t we want to pay a quality DE who has produced over the course of the season?)

Unless someone is willing to offer us a first round pick (I don’t believe anyone would for a player who has yet to really shine) then a trade simply doesn’t do enough for us.
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Lol teams aren't trading anything of value for a guy with a major injury, many off field strikes, many on field dumb penalties, bad run defense grades, and a whopping 20 pressures.

Fans can get tricked by an inflated sack total, but teams aren't that silly.
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(04-21-2018, 10:44 AM)Upper Wrote: Lol teams aren't trading anything of value for a guy with a major injury, many off field strikes, many on field dumb penalties, bad run defense grades, and a whopping 20 pressures.

Fans can get tricked by an inflated sack total, but teams aren't that silly.

That run grade is highly suspect to my eye. He looked pretty good against the run to me.  The injury history is a joke at this point. He clearly has recovered. 

I don't mean this as a joke or an insult at all, but did you watch every Jags game in 2017?  Your opinions seem to be very frequently based in what you've read about a player and not stemming from watching them play football.
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(This post was last modified: 04-21-2018, 10:54 AM by Upper.)

(04-21-2018, 10:49 AM)NYC4jags Wrote:
(04-21-2018, 10:44 AM)Upper Wrote: Lol teams aren't trading anything of value for a guy with a major injury, many off field strikes, many on field dumb penalties, bad run defense grades, and a whopping 20 pressures.

Fans can get tricked by an inflated sack total, but teams aren't that silly.

That run grade is highly suspect to my eye. He looked pretty good against the run to me.  The injury history is a joke at this point. He clearly has recovered. 

I don't mean this as a joke or an insult at all, but did you watch every Jags game in 2017?  Your opinions seem to be very frequently based in what you've read about a player and not stemming from watching them play football.

Every single snap. I think all of them twice even, but I am hesitant to say every single one twice I think I stopped my DVR a bit short for some of the blowouts.

And the biggest predictor of future ACL injury is past ACL injury. He is fine now, but it's a major factor if you're talking about someone having to give up big value for him.
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(04-21-2018, 10:44 AM)Upper Wrote: Lol teams aren't trading anything of value for a guy with a major injury, many off field strikes, many on field dumb penalties, bad run defense grades, and a whopping 20 pressures.

Fans can get tricked by an inflated sack total, but teams aren't that silly.

Kind of like you did with Beasley?  His sack number isn't even really all that great.  It's his pressures along his run defense.
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(04-21-2018, 10:51 AM)Upper Wrote:
(04-21-2018, 10:49 AM)NYC4jags Wrote: That run grade is highly suspect to my eye. He looked pretty good against the run to me.  The injury history is a joke at this point. He clearly has recovered. 

I don't mean this as a joke or an insult at all, but did you watch every Jags game in 2017?  Your opinions seem to be very frequently based in what you've read about a player and not stemming from watching them play football.

Every single snap. I think all of them twice even, but I am hesitant to say every single one twice I think I stopped my DVR a bit short for some of the blowouts.

And the biggest predictor of future ACL injury is past ACL injury. He is fine now, but it's a major factor if you're talking about someone having to give up big value for him.

I'd be interested to see some data on that statement.
IT WAS ALWAYS THE JAGS
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(This post was last modified: 04-21-2018, 11:01 AM by Upper.)

(04-21-2018, 10:56 AM)flgatorsandjags Wrote:
(04-21-2018, 10:44 AM)Upper Wrote: Lol teams aren't trading anything of value for a guy with a major injury, many off field strikes, many on field dumb penalties, bad run defense grades, and a whopping 20 pressures.

Fans can get tricked by an inflated sack total, but teams aren't that silly.

Kind of like you did with Beasley?  His sack number isn't even really all that great.  It's his pressures along his run defense.

Nope, I was warning that Beasley's league leading sack total two years ago was a bit misleading. He was very good, but not best in the league good. I'm a realist when it comes to both love and hate. The average pressure to sack total is 7-9:1. Beasley's that year was 4.5-1 (still a very solid 50 pressures compared to Fowlers 20 though). I said we should expect that to fall quite a bit. Of course tearing a hamstring in the preseason exacerbated the regression.

Fowler's was an absurd 2.2:1 last year.
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