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TC, TE and Pick 29

#21

I wouldn't be surprised if we took a tight end in the first round. I wouldn't be surprised if we didn't touch one until the fourth or fifth round, either. Lewis is a good blocker, and that's what Coughlin seems to value most in a tight end. O'Shaughnessey is a capable receiver who developed nicely over the course of the year, and Koyack is sort of a less talented hybrid of the two. Despite the Julius Thomas disaster, I think the Jags are more likely to go after a free agent at the position. Might not be Trey Burton and definitely won't be Jimmy Graham, but a guy like Virgil Green or Tyler Eifert on a lower-budget contract would make sense.
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#22

Taking a TE at the 29th pick is more of a fantasy than reality. Marcedes Lewis' veteran experience and leadership can not be under-calculated. He has still got it and Ben Koyack is progressing very well.

At this point, I find the computer simulations offering a chance to trade back align the Jaguars in a much better draft position.

There are many players I am finding available in the mid second up to the mid third that represent good value for the pick. If a 2018 second and third are offered, I'd take it.

Keep in mind, Louisville QB, Lamar Jackson, is being penciled in as a mid second round pick. You may also have Ronnie Harrison, the Alabama SS, LSU OG/C Will Clapp, UTEP OG, WIll Hernandez, a number of OLB prospects to choose from, and a host of DT talent as well.

If we trade back to the second round and gain a third for our troubles, there is NOT going to be a lot of talent drop off.
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#23
(This post was last modified: 02-13-2018, 09:24 AM by Caldrac.)

I don't see us going TE in RD1. I say we're leaning QB if one falls and if that doesn't happen he's probably looking at LG or RG to move on from A.J Cann and if he has to fill the hole Patrick Omameh may leave us with during free agency. I wouldn't rule out CB if Colvin decides to walk as well. Mike Hughes from UCF might be there. That's a sleeper pick IMHO right now for this front office.

I am thinking the board looks like this realistically around 29th overall if a trade up/down isn't in play and assuming we DO lose Omameh and Colvin in the months to come during Free Agency.

1. Quenton Nelson - G - Notre Dame
2. Baker Mayfield - QB - Oklahoma
3. Lamar Jackson - QB - Louisville
4. Billy Price - G/C - Ohio State
5. Tremaine Edmunds - OLB - Virginia Tech

There's always a slim chance that someone like Quenton Nelson falls because it's the Guard position and the value at the other skill positions may cause him to drop. Mayfield could drop due to that one arrest. I doubt it but it can happen. Honestly I think it comes down to Price and Edmunds unless Jackson falls to 29 overall.
[Image: 4SXW6gC.png]

"What do I know of cultured ways, the gilt, the craft and the lie? I, who was born in a naked land and bred in the open sky. The subtle tongue, the sophist guile, they fail when the broadswords sing; Rush in and die, dogs - I was a man before I was a king."
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#24

(02-13-2018, 09:22 AM)Caldrac Wrote: I don't see us going TE in RD1. I say we're leaning QB if one falls and if that doesn't happen he's probably looking at LG or RG to move on from A.J Cann and if he has to fill the hole Patrick Omameh may leave us with during free agency. I wouldn't rule out CB if Colvin decides to walk as well. Mike Hughes from UCF might be there. That's a sleeper pick IMHO right now for this front office.

I am thinking the board looks like this realistically around 29th overall if a trade up/down isn't in play and assuming we DO lose Omameh and Colvin in the months to come during Free Agency.

1. Quenton Nelson - G - Notre Dame
2. Baker Mayfield - QB - Oklahoma
3. Lamar Jackson - QB - Louisville
4. Billy Price - G/C - Ohio State
5. Tremaine Edmunds - OLB - Virginia Tech

There's always a slim chance that someone like Quenton Nelson falls because it's the Guard position and the value at the other skill positions may cause him to drop. Mayfield could drop due to that one arrest. I doubt it but it can happen. Honestly I think it comes down to Price and Edmunds unless Jackson falls to 29 overall.

I see no way Nelson falls out of the top 12. I'd love it if Mayfield fell to us, but that's a longshot. Jackson has no business being in the first round. He'll fall to the 2nd, maybe further. I could see Rudolph, White and maybe Lauletta taken ahead of him. They are more prepared to play right away. Price would be a good addition. Edwards probably won't fall to us and I'd rather address the needs at QB, TE and OG before selecting a LB. We can find a good starting LB in the later rounds.
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#25

(02-13-2018, 11:12 AM)TheO-LineMatters Wrote:
(02-13-2018, 09:22 AM)Caldrac Wrote: I don't see us going TE in RD1. I say we're leaning QB if one falls and if that doesn't happen he's probably looking at LG or RG to move on from A.J Cann and if he has to fill the hole Patrick Omameh may leave us with during free agency. I wouldn't rule out CB if Colvin decides to walk as well. Mike Hughes from UCF might be there. That's a sleeper pick IMHO right now for this front office.

I am thinking the board looks like this realistically around 29th overall if a trade up/down isn't in play and assuming we DO lose Omameh and Colvin in the months to come during Free Agency.

1. Quenton Nelson - G - Notre Dame
2. Baker Mayfield - QB - Oklahoma
3. Lamar Jackson - QB - Louisville
4. Billy Price - G/C - Ohio State
5. Tremaine Edmunds - OLB - Virginia Tech

There's always a slim chance that someone like Quenton Nelson falls because it's the Guard position and the value at the other skill positions may cause him to drop. Mayfield could drop due to that one arrest. I doubt it but it can happen. Honestly I think it comes down to Price and Edmunds unless Jackson falls to 29 overall.

I see no way Nelson falls out of the top 12. I'd love it if Mayfield fell to us, but that's a longshot. Jackson has no business being in the first round. He'll fall to the 2nd, maybe further. I could see Rudolph, White and maybe Lauletta taken ahead of him. They are more prepared to play right away. Price would be a good addition. Edwards probably won't fall to us and I'd rather address the needs at QB, TE and OG before selecting a LB. We can find a good starting LB in the later rounds.

I agree with Nelson. It's wishful thinking at this point. I really like him though. He would fit a huge need on our offensive line. I think Jackson will actually go in the first round simply because the demand at the position plus the impending retirements of guys like Manning, Brees, Rivers and Brady create a higher demand for the market. I think we'll see a run at the position early like we did in 2011 and ultimately quite a few passers will get over drafted. 

I like Price. He's versatile. Gives us the option to kick him in at Center and place Linder back inside at one of the guard positions. Either way he's an upgrade over A.J Cann and possibly Patrick Omameh. Edwards is interesting. It depends on the scheme and how teams view Roquan Smith out of Georgia. I have him listed dead last though on what I think will happen.
[Image: 4SXW6gC.png]

"What do I know of cultured ways, the gilt, the craft and the lie? I, who was born in a naked land and bred in the open sky. The subtle tongue, the sophist guile, they fail when the broadswords sing; Rush in and die, dogs - I was a man before I was a king."
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#26

(02-13-2018, 11:44 AM)Caldrac Wrote:
(02-13-2018, 11:12 AM)TheO-LineMatters Wrote: I see no way Nelson falls out of the top 12. I'd love it if Mayfield fell to us, but that's a longshot. Jackson has no business being in the first round. He'll fall to the 2nd, maybe further. I could see Rudolph, White and maybe Lauletta taken ahead of him. They are more prepared to play right away. Price would be a good addition. Edwards probably won't fall to us and I'd rather address the needs at QB, TE and OG before selecting a LB. We can find a good starting LB in the later rounds.

I agree with Nelson. It's wishful thinking at this point. I really like him though. He would fit a huge need on our offensive line. I think Jackson will actually go in the first round simply because the demand at the position plus the impending retirements of guys like Manning, Brees, Rivers and Brady create a higher demand for the market. I think we'll see a run at the position early like we did in 2011 and ultimately quite a few passers will get over drafted. 

I like Price. He's versatile. Gives us the option to kick him in at Center and place Linder back inside at one of the guard positions. Either way he's an upgrade over A.J Cann and possibly Patrick Omameh. Edwards is interesting. It depends on the scheme and how teams view Roquan Smith out of Georgia. I have him listed dead last though on what I think will happen.

If Roquan Smith fell to us, needs are thrown out the window and I take him. A LB unit of Telvin Smith, Myles Jack and Roquan Smith is just way too good to pass up. It won't happen though.
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#27

(02-13-2018, 09:22 AM)Caldrac Wrote: I don't see us going TE in RD1. I say we're leaning QB if one falls and if that doesn't happen he's probably looking at LG or RG to move on from A.J Cann and if he has to fill the hole Patrick Omameh may leave us with during free agency. I wouldn't rule out CB if Colvin decides to walk as well. Mike Hughes from UCF might be there. That's a sleeper pick IMHO right now for this front office.

I am thinking the board looks like this realistically around 29th overall if a trade up/down isn't in play and assuming we DO lose Omameh and Colvin in the months to come during Free Agency.

1. Quenton Nelson - G - Notre Dame
2. Baker Mayfield - QB - Oklahoma
3. Lamar Jackson - QB - Louisville
4. Billy Price - G/C - Ohio State
5. Tremaine Edmunds - OLB - Virginia Tech

There's always a slim chance that someone like Quenton Nelson falls because it's the Guard position and the value at the other skill positions may cause him to drop. Mayfield could drop due to that one arrest. I doubt it but it can happen. Honestly I think it comes down to Price and Edmunds unless Jackson falls to 29 overall.

The key to a successful offense is C-O-N-T-I-N-U-I-T-Y on the offensive line. In football terms, this means making sure everything stays the same. In time each player discovers the strengths and weaknesses of line mates and they gel as a highly productive unit. If you constantly insist on yanking a player out for another the entire process of maintaining continuity on the offensive line RESETS each time you do that.

Take a swing at who had the third lowest number of sacks yielded in the NFL this year?

Jacksonville. Although tied with a few other teams, the 24 sacks given up by the Jaguars' offensive line is really impressive. Consider this unit annually gave up 50 to 70 any given season. There is plenty of talent on our offensive line. Just six less sacks and the Jaguars' offensive line would have led the league in lowest number of sacks allowed. The ratio of sacks stacked up against passing attempts is something like 0.045. Doesn't that mean each time a Jaguars' quarterback drops back to pass there is a 4% chance the play will end in a sack? Compare that to about 12% in 2014 when the Jaguars' offensive line gave up 71 with 557 pass attempts.

Nothing wrong with drafting a OG in the upper levels of this year's picks. Just expect it to raise the level of competition within the offensive line unit to climb even higher. I have no problem drafting a highly talented OG tops provided there is no player at another position possessing greater talent out there.

This is how an NFL franchise gets better. Continuously providing the units within the team the best level of competition they can possibly face within the team structure. Before a team competes within the league it must compete internally. Superior athletes thrive on competition because it allows them to showcase their talent and skill. Team strength is achieved by providing existing players realistic competition in practice. Teams that draft lesser talented players specifically looking to fill back up roles will always have glaring needs because they do not fuel spirited challenges within the different units. 

So if you want to draft a guard first, go ahead. Just don't fuss or rant that he is unable to EARN the starter's role because you can rest assured the unit is as strong as it can possibly be. When injuries happen, there is a talented player to step up and not a waiver wire guy signed on the cheap to fill a roster spot.
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#28
(This post was last modified: 02-14-2018, 07:19 AM by Caldrac.)

(02-14-2018, 01:22 AM)JUNGLE CAT 2017 Wrote:
(02-13-2018, 09:22 AM)Caldrac Wrote: I don't see us going TE in RD1. I say we're leaning QB if one falls and if that doesn't happen he's probably looking at LG or RG to move on from A.J Cann and if he has to fill the hole Patrick Omameh may leave us with during free agency. I wouldn't rule out CB if Colvin decides to walk as well. Mike Hughes from UCF might be there. That's a sleeper pick IMHO right now for this front office.

I am thinking the board looks like this realistically around 29th overall if a trade up/down isn't in play and assuming we DO lose Omameh and Colvin in the months to come during Free Agency.

1. Quenton Nelson - G - Notre Dame
2. Baker Mayfield - QB - Oklahoma
3. Lamar Jackson - QB - Louisville
4. Billy Price - G/C - Ohio State
5. Tremaine Edmunds - OLB - Virginia Tech

There's always a slim chance that someone like Quenton Nelson falls because it's the Guard position and the value at the other skill positions may cause him to drop. Mayfield could drop due to that one arrest. I doubt it but it can happen. Honestly I think it comes down to Price and Edmunds unless Jackson falls to 29 overall.

The key to a successful offense is C-O-N-T-I-N-U-I-T-Y on the offensive line. In football terms, this means making sure everything stays the same. In time each player discovers the strengths and weaknesses of line mates and they gel as a highly productive unit. If you constantly insist on yanking a player out for another the entire process of maintaining continuity on the offensive line RESETS each time you do that.

Take a swing at who had the third lowest number of sacks yielded in the NFL this year?

Jacksonville. Although tied with a few other teams, the 24 sacks given up by the Jaguars' offensive line is really impressive. Consider this unit annually gave up 50 to 70 any given season. There is plenty of talent on our offensive line. Just six less sacks and the Jaguars' offensive line would have led the league in lowest number of sacks allowed. The ratio of sacks stacked up against passing attempts is something like 0.045. Doesn't that mean each time a Jaguars' quarterback drops back to pass there is a 4% chance the play will end in a sack? Compare that to about 12% in 2014 when the Jaguars' offensive line gave up 71 with 557 pass attempts.

Nothing wrong with drafting a OG in the upper levels of this year's picks. Just expect it to raise the level of competition within the offensive line unit to climb even higher. I have no problem drafting a highly talented OG tops provided there is no player at another position possessing greater talent out there.

This is how an NFL franchise gets better. Continuously providing the units within the team the best level of competition they can possibly face within the team structure. Before a team competes within the league it must compete internally. Superior athletes thrive on competition because it allows them to showcase their talent and skill. Team strength is achieved by providing existing players realistic competition in practice. Teams that draft lesser talented players specifically looking to fill back up roles will always have glaring needs because they do not fuel spirited challenges within the different units. 

So if you want to draft a guard first, go ahead. Just don't fuss or rant that he is unable to EARN the starter's role because you can rest assured the unit is as strong as it can possibly be. When injuries happen, there is a talented player to step up and not a waiver wire guy signed on the cheap to fill a roster spot.

I am not knocking Cann's ability in the pass blocking department. My concern is his ability in the running game. As far as your sack total. Take a swing at which team finished 20th in the NFL last year in average pass attempts per game. Also, consider Blake's ability to move around in the pocket. He's probably one of the top QB's right now as far as escaping the pocket and buying more time. How many times did he bail out a whiffed block or blown assignment? We can play this game all day and go back and forth like ping pong. Also, how many of those 24 sacks was A.J Cann personally responsible for? Because it seemed like the interior struggled more than the outside in 2017 in both areas.

Cann, like it or not. Was pretty damn weak along the line. And it's not like I am saying gut two positions in the trenches. Continuity is critical. No arguments from me there. But this team also played a few games with Robinson out of the line up and with Linder out of the line up and life goes on with or without them. We need depth at the very minimum if we're going to continue to improve. Again, something we both agree on. But I can say in full confidence that Quenton Nelson & Billy Price coming out of college would easily take Cann's place along the line. And that would hopefully regulate him to a decent back up role. Where he belongs. 

This team also wasn't built around the passing game last year. It was built around the ground game. Take a swing at who led the NFL in rushing last year. It was Jacksonville. With 140.0 YPG along (which can be skewed with a few big trick plays on special teams) with the most attempts at 527 with the most yards at 2,262. Tied for 7th with a 4.3 average (Again, also skewed with a few big trick plays on special teams) which can be improved upon with better run blocking along the interior. I don't see them changing this formula anytime soon either. And Tom's history of drafting lineman only makes sense here.

It's extremely rare that you'll find a top tier player at the premium skill positions that late in the draft. Especially at 29th overall. Once you get down to that 25th - 60th range it tends to be the sweet spot or hot bed for the upper tier rookies coming out of college from the interior positions. The unsung heroes of football.
[Image: 4SXW6gC.png]

"What do I know of cultured ways, the gilt, the craft and the lie? I, who was born in a naked land and bred in the open sky. The subtle tongue, the sophist guile, they fail when the broadswords sing; Rush in and die, dogs - I was a man before I was a king."
Reply

#29

(02-14-2018, 07:14 AM)Caldrac Wrote:
(02-14-2018, 01:22 AM)JUNGLE CAT 2017 Wrote: The key to a successful offense is C-O-N-T-I-N-U-I-T-Y on the offensive line. In football terms, this means making sure everything stays the same. In time each player discovers the strengths and weaknesses of line mates and they gel as a highly productive unit. If you constantly insist on yanking a player out for another the entire process of maintaining continuity on the offensive line RESETS each time you do that.

Take a swing at who had the third lowest number of sacks yielded in the NFL this year?

Jacksonville. Although tied with a few other teams, the 24 sacks given up by the Jaguars' offensive line is really impressive. Consider this unit annually gave up 50 to 70 any given season. There is plenty of talent on our offensive line. Just six less sacks and the Jaguars' offensive line would have led the league in lowest number of sacks allowed. The ratio of sacks stacked up against passing attempts is something like 0.045. Doesn't that mean each time a Jaguars' quarterback drops back to pass there is a 4% chance the play will end in a sack? Compare that to about 12% in 2014 when the Jaguars' offensive line gave up 71 with 557 pass attempts.

Nothing wrong with drafting a OG in the upper levels of this year's picks. Just expect it to raise the level of competition within the offensive line unit to climb even higher. I have no problem drafting a highly talented OG tops provided there is no player at another position possessing greater talent out there.

This is how an NFL franchise gets better. Continuously providing the units within the team the best level of competition they can possibly face within the team structure. Before a team competes within the league it must compete internally. Superior athletes thrive on competition because it allows them to showcase their talent and skill. Team strength is achieved by providing existing players realistic competition in practice. Teams that draft lesser talented players specifically looking to fill back up roles will always have glaring needs because they do not fuel spirited challenges within the different units. 

So if you want to draft a guard first, go ahead. Just don't fuss or rant that he is unable to EARN the starter's role because you can rest assured the unit is as strong as it can possibly be. When injuries happen, there is a talented player to step up and not a waiver wire guy signed on the cheap to fill a roster spot.

I am not knocking Cann's ability in the pass blocking department. My concern is his ability in the running game. As far as your sack total. Take a swing at which team finished 20th in the NFL last year in average pass attempts per game. Also, consider Blake's ability to move around in the pocket. He's probably one of the top QB's right now as far as escaping the pocket and buying more time. How many times did he bail out a whiffed block or blown assignment? We can play this game all day and go back and forth like ping pong. Also, how many of those 24 sacks was A.J Cann personally responsible for? Because it seemed like the interior struggled more than the outside in 2017 in both areas.

Cann, like it or not. Was pretty damn weak along the line. And it's not like I am saying gut two positions in the trenches. Continuity is critical. No arguments from me there. But this team also played a few games with Robinson out of the line up and with Linder out of the line up and life goes on with or without them. We need depth at the very minimum if we're going to continue to improve. Again, something we both agree on. But I can say in full confidence that Quenton Nelson & Billy Price coming out of college would easily take Cann's place along the line. And that would hopefully regulate him to a decent back up role. Where he belongs. 

This team also wasn't built around the passing game last year. It was built around the ground game. Take a swing at who led the NFL in rushing last year. It was Jacksonville. With 140.0 YPG along (which can be skewed with a few big trick plays on special teams) with the most attempts at 527 with the most yards at 2,262. Tied for 7th with a 4.3 average (Again, also skewed with a few big trick plays on special teams) which can be improved upon with better run blocking along the interior. I don't see them changing this formula anytime soon either. And Tom's history of drafting lineman only makes sense here.

It's extremely rare that you'll find a top tier player at the premium skill positions that late in the draft. Especially at 29th overall. Once you get down to that 25th - 60th range it tends to be the sweet spot or hot bed for the upper tier rookies coming out of college from the interior positions. The unsung heroes of football.

Totally agree. Pass defense stats don't tell the whole story. We need much better run blocking on the interior.
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