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Cognitive dissonance and Expectations

#21
(This post was last modified: 09-10-2019, 12:45 PM by The Eleventh Doctor.)

(09-10-2019, 09:25 AM)The Real Marty Wrote: "Indicia."  Good word.  

But to respond to your post, I often see fans call for the firing of the GM AND the HC, which makes no sense.  Either the coach is being given the talent and he is not maximizing it, or the GM is failing to stock the roster with adequate talent.  It's one or the other.   It cannot be both at the same time.

I guess I just repeated what you said.

It's a little bit of both tbh.

The GM has made some solid picks -- but he's building the wrong kind of team for today's NFL.  Short term success over long term gains.  
The Coach hasn't done well with what he's been given -- which is plenty of talent (albeit not for long term success in today's NFL, but we're not seeing the short term successes we should be seeing)

These combined are why this team is the way it is.  A better head coach, but no GM change gives us a chance at short-term success.  Maybe some AFC Championship game appearances.  A better GM but no HC change builds the right kind of team, but they still never meet their expectations as long as the HC doesn't chang.e

Essentially, the coach is underachieving with all the wrong tools.  The Tools are good, but they're just the wrong ones for the job.  I'm not a tool guy, but basically we need a screwdriver, and we've got a hammer. A really good hammer, but still a hammer.

Also, the GM chose the coach. And his track record there has been pretty bad. First Gus, now Marrone.
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#22
(This post was last modified: 09-10-2019, 01:03 PM by MoJagFan.)

I think our talent level isn't as good as we saw in 2017. I made a huge mistake in thinking Poz wasn't talented enough or the glue that made the run possible. Turns out he did way more than I thought he did. We don't look like a team with a solid plan. We have scattered talent that doesn't work well together. They fight each other better than the team lined up across from them. The league is signaling offense, offense, offense and we are laser locked on running the football with defense. The refs protect key players and we are deemed as a trashy team that needs to be penalized. I don't blame the coaches for the players being undisciplined come game time.

Honestly looking at this team for so long.. how could you possible implement a modern scheme with the QB play where it was up to this point? We don't have long term vets or established players on offense to right the ship. We are relying on the last guy drafted with some Free agents thrown in. We haven't developed talent. The drafting has been above average but you don't get what you need out of your team when it is a bunch of talented individuals. I just don't see the dedication to team concepts.

I hope they right the ship and prove me wrong but we haven't had great coaching since the franchise inception and TC is over the hill to do anything other then execute and consult now. Honestly I don't see how you can compel our free agents to stick around if they want to win and get paid. We are going to be disappointed when the individuals that make up this team go to other teams and excel because they have traditions and clarity for their team.

(09-10-2019, 12:42 PM)The Eleventh Doctor Wrote:
(09-10-2019, 09:25 AM)The Real Marty Wrote: "Indicia."  Good word.  

But to respond to your post, I often see fans call for the firing of the GM AND the HC, which makes no sense.  Either the coach is being given the talent and he is not maximizing it, or the GM is failing to stock the roster with adequate talent.  It's one or the other.   It cannot be both at the same time.

I guess I just repeated what you said.

It's a little bit of both tbh.

The GM has made some solid picks -- but he's building the wrong kind of team for today's NFL.  Short term success over long term gains.  
The Coach hasn't done well with what he's been given -- which is plenty of talent (albeit not for long term success in today's NFL, but we're not seeing the short term successes we should be seeing)

These combined are why this team is the way it is.  A better head coach, but no GM change gives us a chance at short-term success.  Maybe some AFC Championship game appearances.  A better GM but no HC change builds the right kind of team, but they still never meet their expectations as long as the HC doesn't chang.e

Essentially, the coach is underachieving with all the wrong tools.  The Tools are good, but they're just the wrong ones for the job.  I'm not a tool guy, but basically we need a screwdriver, and we've got a hammer.  A really good hammer, but still a hammer.

Also, the GM chose the coach.  And his track record there has been pretty bad.  First Gus, now Marrone.

Better stated assessment and wording then my post.  It just makes me so sad when I watch most NFL teams and see them execute together.  I think our team and the Browns are very very similar.
The Khan Years

Patience, Persistence, and Piss Poor General Managers.
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#23

(09-10-2019, 09:25 AM)The Real Marty Wrote: "Indicia."  Good word.  

But to respond to your post, I often see fans call for the firing of the GM AND the HC, which makes no sense.  Either the coach is being given the talent and he is not maximizing it, or the GM is failing to stock the roster with adequate talent.  It's one or the other.   It cannot be both at the same time.

I guess I just repeated what you said.

Actually no.

It is quite possible to have both a bad coach and a bad GM at the same time, as evidenced by bad GM Gene Smith and bad coach Mike Mularkey, and any number of combinations on Cleveland, Detroit, and Miami.

That said, consistent with my early defense of Bradley, you usually can't tell if a coach is bad without first giving him talent to be competitive.  Early on, Bradley didn't demonstrably aveh that level of talent until 2016.

I also don't think both positions are bad, though neither are perfect.
 

Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!





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#24

The modern NFL front office setup makes some of this argument moot. Not sure how we got here but it seems any newly hired GM automatically gets to hire a head coach. His head coach. Regardless of the perceived quality of the coach. And then they're joined at the hip.

So, you could think Doug is the greatest coach since Lombardi (I know, I know), I'm guessing he's have to go if a new GM is hired.
The sun's not yellow, it's chicken.
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#25

our coach = old guy can't discipline players
Andy Reid = old guy that's a coaching genius

Khan = Big $$$ that can get any Coach HE wants at season end

Pray for us guys ....
"Stay tight, stay close. Great things are going to continue to happen for this football team."  - Doug Peterson
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#26
(This post was last modified: 09-10-2019, 04:44 PM by JackCity.)

They've horribly missed on the QB position since Caldwell took the job and that's more than a firing offense. That's a long with multiple first round busts.

I think Marrone is a totally regular NFL HC and easily replaced. But I don't think you can ever judge how good someone is with the disastrous QB room he's had to work with and win with since making his debut as NFL HC
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#27

My expectations last year were similar to 2017’s performance. Obviously not after the season was unfolding.

This year, with Foles, I expected 2017 results. Now, that that is out of the question, I’ll hold off until I see I’d the Def gets their act together the way we know they can do. Also, will Minshew pick up week in and out how he did Sunday? There bound to be mishaps. But [BLEEP], he already looks light years ahead of Bortles. If Minshew and the D do what they’re capable of, who knows, maybe Foles can come in late season and so for us like he did the Eagles. Doubtful but possible, I suppose.
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#28

I haven’t read anything in this thread other than Bullseyes post. 

I just wanted to say

Thank you Bullseye for bringing an intelligent discourse to this board. I’ve followed the board for 12 years. And never, has there been anyone asking actual thoughtful questions that are luckily not prayed upon by trolls.
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#29

(09-10-2019, 06:36 PM)MojoKing Wrote: I haven’t read anything in this thread other than Bullseyes post. 

I just wanted to say

Thank you Bullseye for bringing an intelligent discourse to this board. I’ve followed the board for 12 years. And never, has there been anyone asking actual thoughtful questions that are luckily not prayed upon by trolls.

Tbh, I didn’t either.   I also didn’t even read all his his post.  I get bored reading books.  But I think I read enough to contribute above.   And yes, he does add value to the board.  Just a tad too in depth more me.  I can’t name off all the stuff he does.  Kudos to him for being a super fan.
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#30

We took a chance in hiring what the team believed was a young, up and coming Dave Caldwell as a GM when Shad Kahn purchased the team. In my opinion he has done a below average job. By gutting the team of any semblance of NFL talent he’s given salary cap with more money than virtually any other team in the NFL to spend on available free agents from the rest of the league. His most egregious shortcoming has been his first round draft evaluations. This guy has picked Luke Joekel, Blake Bortles and Dante Fowler Jr. with top 3 overall selections in the draft. Please read the previous sentence again and let that sink in. That means that he was looking at basically the entire pool of draft eligible players and based on his evaluation criteria that they were the best prospects out there. That track record tells me that he just is over his head as a general manager.
Respect the game.  Play with a sense of urgency. 


1.)  Take care of the ball.  Win the turnover battle.

2.)  It's all about 3rd down.  Win on 3rd down to win the game.

3.) Playmakers make plays.  The only reason that you put your uniform on is to make plays. In order to EARN your paycheck, you must make plays.  



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#31
(This post was last modified: 09-10-2019, 08:29 PM by Bullseye.)

(09-10-2019, 10:15 AM)I am Yoda Wrote: It’s not an either/or proposition as you are presenting. Caldwell has made some good picks.  He has done fairly well finding the front line talent. Where he has swung and missed is on depth. Injuries kill us because we have no depth. Is some of that on coaching? Yes. But my judgement is that it lies more with talent or lack thereof.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

A few points.

1.  For the record, I do not assert that depth is NOT a concern for this team.  There is a legitimate cause for concern.  I specifically acknowledged QB as a major cause for concern, and specifically urged the team to acquire an experienced backup prior to the start of the season.

2.  The very nature of depth means that when it plays, it represents a step down in quality of play from the starters.  Hopefully that drop in play is minimal, but as a general rule, it's unavoidable.

3.  How should a GM develop quality depth?  Through veteran free agency?  If the team goes that route, the team would spend more money on older players.  That's a sure way to minimize cap flexibility and have an old declining roster.  Through the draft?  That makes sense on some level, but at what point in the draft do you draft for depth?  First two to three rounds?  Aside from it being a waste of high picks to use them to draft for depth, it's unrealistic to expect every rookie to supplant an existing starter, relegating the starter to the bench.  But if it happens, you then have the issue of the older more expensive vet riding the bench.  Picks from the 4th round down?  Makes some sense, but the reason why players tend to fall to the 4th round down is either they have some sort of injury or off field issue that makes them a risk, or there is likely to be some sort of athletic limitations that make them less likely candidates to make a team, much less become quality starters or depth.  On top of that, many time younger players will need quality reps in practice and in game situation to develop into quality players.  If they are not starters, how do they get those reps and playing time?  To that end, I don't think this current roster is completely devoid of depth.  Say what you will about him as a former first round pick and as a starter, but it isn't a stretch to say Ogbuehi represents better athleticism at LT than Josh Wells.  Considering he is a former starter, he is actually more experienced than our incumbent starter at LT.  Furthermore, if Sunday is any indicia, this will be a fairly deep offense in the not too distant future.  Will Richardson played well at LT considering he hadn't played the position since high school and he got his first game snaps in the NFL and his first game action in over a year.  If he can continue that level of play he showed Sunday or even improve upon it, he makes us legitimately three deep at LT, and at least two deep at both G spots and RT.  With the ascent of Chark and Conley to starter, experienced guys like Lee and Cole go to the bench.  Assuming Lee and Cole stay our 4th and 5th WRs, when was the last time we had 4th and 5th receivers with their career production?

(09-10-2019, 11:27 AM)Rockman1966 Wrote: Can’t we just stick to Maslow’s Hierarchy of Needs?

With some Pavlov's dogs and Jung thrown in for good measure?
 

Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!





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#32

(09-10-2019, 04:43 PM)JackCity Wrote: They've horribly missed on the QB position since Caldwell took the job and that's more than a firing offense.  That's a long with multiple first round busts.

I think Marrone is a totally regular NFL HC and easily replaced. But I don't think you can ever judge how good someone is with the disastrous QB room he's had to work with and win with since making his debut as NFL HC

To me, this is Caldwell's biggest demerit.

Even with the horrible Bradley hire, had he hit on Bortles, or more importantly drafted Watson or Mahomes instead of Fournette (and that may well have been TC's doing, not his), I don't think more than a small handful of people are calling for his ouster.
 

Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!





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#33

(09-10-2019, 08:34 PM)Bullseye Wrote:
(09-10-2019, 04:43 PM)JackCity Wrote: They've horribly missed on the QB position since Caldwell took the job and that's more than a firing offense.  That's a long with multiple first round busts.

I think Marrone is a totally regular NFL HC and easily replaced. But I don't think you can ever judge how good someone is with the disastrous QB room he's had to work with and win with since making his debut as NFL HC

To me, this is Caldwell's biggest demerit.

Even with the horrible Bradley hire, had he hit on Bortles, or more importantly drafted Watson or Mahomes instead of Fournette (and that may well have been TC's doing, not his), I don't think more than a small handful of people are calling for his ouster.

Yeah, other than QB and RB I think he's done fine with other positions.

He's passed on great QBs, taken a bad one, and he's always somehow managed to draft mediocre running backs too high in an era when other teams drafts great running backs on the later rounds.
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#34
(This post was last modified: 09-10-2019, 08:57 PM by Bullseye.)

(09-10-2019, 09:49 AM)D-Money Wrote: The issue is everything else that came with it. He gor Allen Robinson and found Allen Hurns our first 1k WRs since Jimmy and McCardell. They were one of the good points of the team then you let them go and we end up with Lee, Moncrief and Cole who did not produce. If they would have guaranteed ARs contract or gave exactly what the Bears gave, he would have stayed. So that is a poor decision under his watch.
Same thing goes for the team after we make it to the AFC conference game, 1st of all we should have won the game but he allowed the coaches to make the decisions they made, even though we were winning, all we had to do what make a few adjustments. He is not the coach but the coaches that he brought in made us miss out on the main reason most of the players play, to get to the Super Bowl, something we have never done before. These coaches have been doing the same thing last year and from the start of what we can see this year. If you are the GM, you have to make the decision it lies on you, if you allow these people to still be here.

My next issue relates to the last, we had just got got the Conference championship, the FO office being arrogant, would not bring back or work something with Poz causing him to retire. As it stands right now, if we had Poz on the field for depth and leadership it would help and I don't think we have as many discipline issues with the defense, Myles Jack and Telvin may still be here.
Also, no reason to not bring back Marcedes for leadership. The coach staff got big headed and thought they could replace players but did not understand that effect it would cause, basically what we are going thru right now.

Giving Bortles that contract rather making him earn it, knowing that he is always up and down, then just letting him walk.

Giving Foles extra money just to make sure he fills respected.
He has some decent drafts but overall when you look at it. We've only had 1 winning season with him which is looking like a fluke for now.  How long does a GM get? He is not making the necessary changes. He allows them to go on for long on before doing something. Even with Bradley, Bradley was a great person and everyone could see but it wasn't bringing in wins. He should have been fired the year before he was.

So its not necessarily him but the issues that everyone sees caused by the staff that he brought in and not addressing the issue but just letting it linger on. He may be decent at finding talent but it seems that is all. Maybe he should just be a scout for the team and not the GM

As for the Allens, he has to get credit for bringing them in.  But Robinson had a say in whether or not he was going to stay.  He had demand for his services.  He wanted to play in a bigger market with more of a home field advantage, with more stability at offensive coordinator and a better QB.  Should we have overpaid to keep him here, a year after he blew out his knee?  You can make arguments either way.  Hurns was in increasing injury risk, and his productivity fell off.  He wasn't a factor in Dallas, and if he is still on the Dolphins now, clearly isn't making much difference for them, either.

He brought in the coaches that blew the AFCCG, but he also brought in the coaches that got us there in the first place.  

I don't see how you tie Posluszny's retirement to FO arrogance.  First, Poz had been in the league some ten years at a very physically demanding position.  He knew when he had enough.  When he retired, he didn't try to sign elsewhere.  He said he couldn't play at a high enough level any more.  Furthermore, Caldwell had just drafted Jack in 2016.  After Bradley had him languishing n the bench in Jack's rookie year, the team had to get Jack some playing time.  Not only was Jack not well suited at SAM, either he was going to continue to languish on the bench on most downs, but if he got playing time in nickel, it was going to be at Poz's expense.  Telvin Smith was too athletic and made too many plays to take him out.

I disagreed with the Bortles extension, though I understood the rationale behind it.  But when that decision was made, TC was his new superior.  In plenty of interviews on the subject, TC was emphatic in his arguments defending the Bortles extension.  While Bortles was Caldwell's pick, it's possible (I don't know for sure) that TC was the driving force behind the Bortles extension.

Last year's collapse was unfortunate and ultimately attributable mostly to the injuries along the offensive line.  Everything points to that.  Not sure what Caldwell could have done to prevent the team being down 4 out of 5 starting OLs and being down to the 4th LT (who was a RT on another team at the start of the season) by season's end.

(09-10-2019, 07:18 PM)jagsfan06 Wrote: We took a chance in hiring what the team believed was a young, up and coming Dave Caldwell as a GM when Shad Kahn purchased the team. In my opinion he has done a below average job. By gutting the team of any semblance of NFL talent he’s given salary cap with more money than virtually any other team in the NFL to spend on available free agents from the rest of the league. His most egregious shortcoming has been his first round draft evaluations. This guy has picked Luke Joekel, Blake Bortles and Dante Fowler Jr. with top 3 overall selections in the draft.  Please read the previous sentence again and let that sink in. That means that he was looking at basically the entire pool of draft eligible players and based on his evaluation criteria that they were the best prospects out there. That track record tells me that he just is over his head as a general manager.

(Emphasis added)

Gutting talent from a 2-14 team?!?
 

Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!





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#35

(09-10-2019, 06:40 PM)Jags Wrote:
(09-10-2019, 06:36 PM)MojoKing Wrote: I haven’t read anything in this thread other than Bullseyes post. 

I just wanted to say

Thank you Bullseye for bringing an intelligent discourse to this board. I’ve followed the board for 12 years. And never, has there been anyone asking actual thoughtful questions that are luckily not prayed upon by trolls.

Tbh, I didn’t either.   I also didn’t even read all his his post.  I get bored reading books.  But I think I read enough to contribute above.   And yes, he does add value to the board.  Just a tad too in depth more me.  I can’t name off all the stuff he does.  Kudos to him for being a super fan.

Ouch!   Laughing

Thanks guys, though I think you guys missed some good counterpoints.
 

Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!





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#36

(09-10-2019, 08:37 PM)SeldomRite Wrote:
(09-10-2019, 08:34 PM)Bullseye Wrote: To me, this is Caldwell's biggest demerit.

Even with the horrible Bradley hire, had he hit on Bortles, or more importantly drafted Watson or Mahomes instead of Fournette (and that may well have been TC's doing, not his), I don't think more than a small handful of people are calling for his ouster.

Yeah, other than QB and RB I think he's done fine with other positions.

He's passed on great QBs, taken a bad one, and he's always somehow managed to draft mediocre running backs too high in an era when other teams drafts great running backs on the later rounds.

My fear is that in our quest to punish Caldwell for not finding the QB and hire the guy who can, we end up getting the guy who not only can't find the QB, but the other positions too.

Remember how many initially thought Gene Smith would be an upgrade over Shack Harris?
 

Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!





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#37
(This post was last modified: 09-10-2019, 09:24 PM by SeldomRite.)

(09-10-2019, 09:14 PM)Bullseye Wrote:
(09-10-2019, 08:37 PM)SeldomRite Wrote: Yeah, other than QB and RB I think he's done fine with other positions.

He's passed on great QBs, taken a bad one, and he's always somehow managed to draft mediocre running backs too high in an era when other teams drafts great running backs on the later rounds.

My fear is that in our quest to punish Caldwell for not finding the QB and hire the guy who can, we end up getting the guy who not only can't find the QB, but the other positions too.

Remember how many initially thought Gene Smith would be an upgrade over Shack Harris?

Like I said earlier, he would be a great director of scouting or something like that, but if you can't identify QB talent you just aren't worthy of being an NFL GM.
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#38

(09-10-2019, 09:23 PM)SeldomRite Wrote:
(09-10-2019, 09:14 PM)Bullseye Wrote: My fear is that in our quest to punish Caldwell for not finding the QB and hire the guy who can, we end up getting the guy who not only can't find the QB, but the other positions too.

Remember how many initially thought Gene Smith would be an upgrade over Shack Harris?

Like I said earlier, he would be a great director of scouting or something like that, but if you can't identify QB talent you just aren't worthy of being an NFL GM.

Ozzie Newsome had Trent Dilfer, Elvis Grbac, Kyle Boller, Joe Flacco, and L. Jackson as his QBs throughout his career.

Are any one of those guys "great" QBs?

Are there enough "good" QBs in that group to definitively state he can identify QB talent?

Was Ozzie Newsome "unworthy" of being an NFL GM?
 

Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!





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#39

Caldwell has had years of high draft picks and an almost open checkbook salary cap.  This roster is still incomplete.  Caldwell's franchise QB was a massive failure.  That should of gotten him fired then.  After 6 years of building there is still massive holes on this team.  This overpriced defense remains inconsistent.   Khan hired Daddy Coughlin to come in and hold his hand and results show that Coughlin maybe over the hill.  It's unfortunate Foles got hurt but they knew he has never completed a season before they payed him.  There was 0 insurance policy behind Foles.  We are counting on a 6th round rookie because this front office failed to secure a security blanket.  They then panic and trade for Dobbs wasting another draft pick in 2 years just like Hyde last year.

The coaching staff seems to have little control and it spills out on the field. Stupid penalties continue to plague this team.  It's a reflection of the coaching staff hand pick by this front office.

They will get their chance to prove it this year but if this year ends in another mediocre year you have to ask how many excuses you can make for these guys.   If this season is a failure it is hard not to argue rebuilding the front office from the ground up is not a bad move at all.  Starting with Dave and Coughlin's removal.   To be continued....
[Image: mvp.avia8a99974486b2b89.md.png]
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#40

(09-10-2019, 09:30 PM)Bullseye Wrote:
(09-10-2019, 09:23 PM)SeldomRite Wrote: Like I said earlier, he would be a great director of scouting or something like that, but if you can't identify QB talent you just aren't worthy of being an NFL GM.

Ozzie Newsome had Trent Dilfer, Elvis Grbac, Kyle Boller, Joe Flacco, and L. Jackson as his QBs throughout his career.

Are any one of those guys "great" QBs?

Are there enough "good" QBs in that group to definitively state he can identify QB talent?

Was Ozzie Newsome "unworthy" of being an NFL GM?

They won Superbowls and he hired John Harbaugh, so I guess he could stand as a good GM anyway. If Caldwell had hired a coach on Harbaugh's level he might have been able to get away with his QB and running back picks.
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