Yes, there's only three players worthy of a top ten selection and he's one of them.

If he's there at 20, then you are wrong.  He's not one of them.  If that many teams passed on him, then there is something really wrong with the guy and I would re-think the idea that he is worthy of a top ten selection.

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To play along with the hypothetical:

I am thinking as if I am Dave Caldwell, and not just some Jags GM with a lifetime contract. If Tua is there at 20, that means that:
1) His medicals did not come back as positively as anticipated during pre-draft workouts or combine.
2) Everybody else with glaring needs at QB have either passed on him to take a different QB (not a good look at all for him) or to take a player at a different position who represents greater value (not a good look either, but less damaging).
3) Every other GM in the league has suffered a stroke and forgot that he was on the board.

If it's the case of #1 or the second part of #2 above, I strongly entertain offers for our 20th pick. If I can move back a few spots and get some more picks in the second (or another first next year) for a team that still needs a QB and is willing to pay for the pick, I jump at the chance.

If everybody else has passed on him, that's a red flag. Did he not test well? Did the medicals show a poor prognosis? Did he simply state that he would not sign a deal if those teams in need of QB picked him (also a la Bo Jackson!)?

If everything checks out and he is still there (Very unlikely), and nobody is willing to move up to get him (also unlikely), I would consider it, but would have to get buy-in from the Owner. If our expectation is to win now, I'm not taking a guy who is going to need time to recuperate or won't likely unseat either of the guys we already have  on the roster. Why else would he be there at 20, other than needing time to heal? I probably find other guys at positions of need that grade similarly but can see the field right away.

TLDR version - I doubt I would, in the extremely unlikely chance he's there. He would only be there for reasons that make him undraftable.

Regarding the underlined part: The Pats have the 23rd pick.  I think they would jump all over the opportunity to take Tua.  I know no one goes by the NFL draft value chart any more, but for sake of discussion, the difference between pick #20 and pick #23 is a third round pick.  

The Saints are sitting right behind the Pats at pick #24.  Another strong team with a very old superstar QB.  

It would set up pretty nicely for a trade down.  But it won't happen because Tua won't be there at 20.  I'm pretty sure of that.

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To play along with the hypothetical:

I am thinking as if I am Dave Caldwell, and not just some Jags GM with a lifetime contract. If Tua is there at 20, that means that:
1) His medicals did not come back as positively as anticipated during pre-draft workouts or combine.
2) Everybody else with glaring needs at QB have either passed on him to take a different QB (not a good look at all for him) or to take a player at a different position who represents greater value (not a good look either, but less damaging).
3) Every other GM in the league has suffered a stroke and forgot that he was on the board.

If it's the case of #1 or the second part of #2 above, I strongly entertain offers for our 20th pick. If I can move back a few spots and get some more picks in the second (or another first next year) for a team that still needs a QB and is willing to pay for the pick, I jump at the chance.

If everybody else has passed on him, that's a red flag. Did he not test well? Did the medicals show a poor prognosis? Did he simply state that he would not sign a deal if those teams in need of QB picked him (also a la Bo Jackson!)?

If everything checks out and he is still there (Very unlikely), and nobody is willing to move up to get him (also unlikely), I would consider it, but would have to get buy-in from the Owner. If our expectation is to win now, I'm not taking a guy who is going to need time to recuperate or won't likely unseat either of the guys we already have  on the roster. Why else would he be there at 20, other than needing time to heal? I probably find other guys at positions of need that grade similarly but can see the field right away.

TLDR version - I doubt I would, in the extremely unlikely chance he's there. He would only be there for reasons that make him undraftable.

Regarding the underlined part: The Pats have the 23rd pick.  I think they would jump all over the opportunity to take Tua.  I know no one goes by the NFL draft value chart any more, but for sake of discussion, the difference between pick #20 and pick #23 is a third round pick.  

The Saints are sitting right behind the Pats at pick #24.  Another strong team with a very old superstar QB.  

It would set up pretty nicely for a trade down.  But it won't happen because Tua won't be there at 20.  I'm pretty sure of that.

Wouldn’t that be a red flag to you? That two of the best franchises right now want to trade up for Tua? In that case, the Jags should just take him.

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Regarding the underlined part: The Pats have the 23rd pick.  I think they would jump all over the opportunity to take Tua.  I know no one goes by the NFL draft value chart any more, but for sake of discussion, the difference between pick #20 and pick #23 is a third round pick.  

The Saints are sitting right behind the Pats at pick #24.  Another strong team with a very old superstar QB.  

It would set up pretty nicely for a trade down.  But it won't happen because Tua won't be there at 20.  I'm pretty sure of that.

Wouldn’t that be a red flag to you? That two of the best franchises right now want to trade up for Tua? In that case, the Jags should just take him.

It's a conundrum.  I don't want something no one else wants, which is why I would avoid him if he falls to 20, but then if the Pats or the Saints try to trade up to get him, that means someone does want him.  

On the other hand, both those teams might be in the mood to take a wild chance that he will regain his health and become a franchise QB.  Should we take that same chance?  We're not in their situation.  They have great rosters and they can keep their winning tradition going with a new franchise QB.  If the odds of him regaining this health were only 20%, they might logically want to take a wild swing for the fences, and we might logically not want to do that.  Because they are soon going to be missing just one piece of the puzzle, and we are missing about 10 pieces.

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Wouldn’t that be a red flag to you? That two of the best franchises right now want to trade up for Tua? In that case, the Jags should just take him.

It's a conundrum.  I don't want something no one else wants, which is why I would avoid him if he falls to 20, but then if the Pats or the Saints try to trade up to get him, that means someone does want him.  

On the other hand, both those teams might be in the mood to take a wild chance that he will regain his health and become a franchise QB.  Should we take that same chance?  We're not in their situation.  They have great rosters and they can keep their winning tradition going with a new franchise QB.  If the odds of him regaining this health were only 20%, they might logically want to take a wild swing for the fences, and we might logically not want to do that.  Because they are soon going to be missing just one piece of the puzzle, and we are missing about 10 pieces.

Playing it safe is how you end up with Fournette and Taven Bryan. This franchise needs stars and wins.

I’ve been saying for a while that they need to take a chance and go for a home run. Tua has a chance to be really special (IMO) and I would take that chance at 9 rather than 20.

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Regarding the underlined part: The Pats have the 23rd pick.  I think they would jump all over the opportunity to take Tua.  I know no one goes by the NFL draft value chart any more, but for sake of discussion, the difference between pick #20 and pick #23 is a third round pick.  

The Saints are sitting right behind the Pats at pick #24.  Another strong team with a very old superstar QB.  

It would set up pretty nicely for a trade down.  But it won't happen because Tua won't be there at 20.  I'm pretty sure of that.

Wouldn’t that be a red flag to you? That two of the best franchises right now want to trade up for Tua? In that case, the Jags should just take him.

This is the flaw with the hypothetical.

If he's that good (and cleared by medical), the offers will be at 9, not 20. If he's there at 20, either EVERYONE is interested in the value at that spot, not just two cherry-picked teams with old QBs, or nobody in their right mind is going to trade up for damaged or uncertain goods.

I don't know that NE is in the market. They just picked Stidham last year, and was good enough that they felt comfortable rolling with a 40-something Brady and the rookie. Chances are if Brady rides off into the sunset, they give Stidham a shot, or look to some veteran FA along the lines of Bridgewater, Dalton, or Cam to play until the window finally closes.

IIRC Belichick had his eye on Bortles...that means he's good, right?

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It's a conundrum.  I don't want something no one else wants, which is why I would avoid him if he falls to 20, but then if the Pats or the Saints try to trade up to get him, that means someone does want him.  

On the other hand, both those teams might be in the mood to take a wild chance that he will regain his health and become a franchise QB.  Should we take that same chance?  We're not in their situation.  They have great rosters and they can keep their winning tradition going with a new franchise QB.  If the odds of him regaining this health were only 20%, they might logically want to take a wild swing for the fences, and we might logically not want to do that.  Because they are soon going to be missing just one piece of the puzzle, and we are missing about 10 pieces.

Playing it safe is how you end up with Fournette and Taven Bryan. This franchise needs stars and wins.

I’ve been saying for a while that they need to take a chance and go for a home run. Tua has a chance to be really special (IMO) and I would take that chance at 9 rather than 20.

Drafting Taven Bryan was playing it safe?  He was drafted on potential and a project,  that's not playing it safe.

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Yes, there's only three players worthy of a top ten selection and he's one of them.

If he's there at 20, then you are wrong.  He's not one of them.  If that many teams passed on him, then there is something really wrong with the guy and I would re-think the idea that he is worthy of a top ten selection.

No way Tua comes out if he's not a guaranteed top 10 pick. I don't see Tua making it out of the top3. I could see Detroit trading with Miami as long as Young is off the board.

Tua, Young and Simmons are the only players in this draft worthy of a top10 pick. I don't see any of them available at 9. Looks like we won't get value at the 9 pick unless we trade back.

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Your beliefs become your thoughts,
Your thoughts become your words,
Your words become your actions,
Your actions become your habits,
Your habits become your values,
Your values become your destiny.

If he's there at 20, then you are wrong.  He's not one of them.  If that many teams passed on him, then there is something really wrong with the guy and I would re-think the idea that he is worthy of a top ten selection.

No way Tua comes out if he's not a guaranteed top 10 pick. I don't see Tua making it out of the top3. I could see Detroit trading with Miami as long as Young is off the board.

Tua, Young and Simmons are the only players in this draft worthy of a top10 pick. I don't see any of them available at 9. Looks like we won't get value at the 9 pick unless we trade back.

Burrow is not worthy of a top 10 pick but Tua is?

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No way Tua comes out if he's not a guaranteed top 10 pick. I don't see Tua making it out of the top3. I could see Detroit trading with Miami as long as Young is off the board.

Tua, Young and Simmons are the only players in this draft worthy of a top10 pick. I don't see any of them available at 9. Looks like we won't get value at the 9 pick unless we trade back.

Burrow is not worthy of a top 10 pick but Tua is?

Right?! 

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Playing it safe is how you end up with Fournette and Taven Bryan. This franchise needs stars and wins.

I’ve been saying for a while that they need to take a chance and go for a home run. Tua has a chance to be really special (IMO) and I would take that chance at 9 rather than 20.

Drafting Taven Bryan was playing it safe?  He was drafted on potential and a project,  that's not playing it safe.

Drafting a DT is playing it safe when Lamar Jackson is still on the board.

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Drafting Taven Bryan was playing it safe?  He was drafted on potential and a project,  that's not playing it safe.

Drafting a DT is playing it safe when Lamar Jackson is still on the board.

Bruh, the Ravens themselves drafted Hayden Hurst ahead of Lamar Jackson.  He was a polarizing prospect and a bad example for your point.  

Taven was safe in that he was chosen right where he was projected by most, and he was a gamble in that he was very raw with limited experience. 

If the Jags don't draft a QB early it's not because they are playing it safe, it's because they are playing it patient with the development of a promising rookie.  There really are very few "safe" picks in the draft IMO.  The number of highly touted prospects that don't pan out is pretty high. 

Now if you just want to make a case for drafting QB despite having a second year guy who set some impressive rookie milestones and a third year guy you gave up a 5th round pick for, then that's another thing.  I don't personally want to risk redundancy prior to evaluation but I get why some folks are OK with that. 
I'd build around the current QB roster and plan to use extra draft capital in 2021 if 2020 doesn't yield adequate QB play.

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Tua wont make it to 9. I dont care if we got Lawrence, if you have a bad system, poor coaching, bad roster, any QB you get will never succeed

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JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
FLORIDA STATE SEMINOLES 
ATLANTS BRAVES 

I don't watch a lot of CFB. Can someone do a comparison between Tua and Minshew? On paper they seem a fairly similar other than pedigree.

I think they are pretty similar players, Minshew is a much better player under pressure.  Tua always had a ton of time and the best WR in the country, the few times he faced a little pressure he folded.  If he came here it would be no different.  The Colts would be a great spot for him being they have one of the best olines in football and Hilton

Kinda ironic, both benched in the same week lol.

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I think they are pretty similar players, Minshew is a much better player under pressure.  Tua always had a ton of time and the best WR in the country, the few times he faced a little pressure he folded.  If he came here it would be no different.  The Colts would be a great spot for him being they have one of the best olines in football and Hilton

Kinda ironic, both benched in the same week lol.

Tua should have never been inserted to begin with when Fitzpatrick was doing just fine and they were winning. Perfect scenario for Tua to sit, learn and maintain health while the org continues to build around him. Think the coaches are playing with fire pulling him and reinserting him like they have this season.

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Kinda ironic, both benched in the same week lol.

Tua should have never been inserted to begin with when Fitzpatrick was doing just fine and they were winning. Perfect scenario for Tua to sit, learn and maintain health while the org continues to build around him. Think the coaches are playing with fire pulling him and reinserting him like they have this season.

Wait, wait, wait.  You are the one more than anyone that always says if you draft a guy that high you start him day 1.

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Tua should have never been inserted to begin with when Fitzpatrick was doing just fine and they were winning. Perfect scenario for Tua to sit, learn and maintain health while the org continues to build around him. Think the coaches are playing with fire pulling him and reinserting him like they have this season.

Wait, wait, wait.  You are the one more than anyone that always says if you draft a guy that high you start him day 1.

The issue is whether QB should be treated like other positions. Most other positions you make the rookie earn his spot. And if he needs to be sat for a game due poor play, it is generally lauded as accountability and good coaching. 

Being QB though is such a high profile position though that most coaches/scouts/fans/media feel that they have to treated "lightly" or it will play mind games for that player, and affect his teammates' trust in him as a leader. Basically you either start him game 1 or you wait to start him until like the bye week or game 10 or season 2, and then just leave him in no matter what.

I have no clue if the prevailing sentiment is correct, but the Dolphins are basically saying they don't believe in it. We will see if it works out. If anyone is built to deal with it, it may be Tua who won a NC as a 2nd half sub in the championship game and then needed Hurts to relieve him because of injuries in the SEC title game a few years later.

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