We have draft picks and free agency to fix the team. It probably won't all be fixed in one year. But that said, if we can get good players at the following positions: offensive line, defensive tackle, tight end, and middle linebacker, we will be vastly improved. So if we just hit those four spots, it would be a tremendous success. That's why I'm against the idea of just working on one side of the ball like the OP suggested.

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We have draft picks and free agency to fix the team.  It probably won't all be fixed in one year.  But that said, if we can get good players at the following positions: offensive line, defensive tackle, tight end, and middle linebacker, we will be vastly improved.  So if we just hit those four spots, it would be a tremendous success.  That's why I'm against the idea of just working on one side of the ball like the OP suggested.

I agree with this. Keep it simple and focused on these positions and we’ll have a much improved team. Plus, Marrone must, must make the decision early about which QB will be the starter and build from there.

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Dave is running this draft so.....good luck with all this.

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This is the kind of draft I'm thinking of:

9: R1P9
 
WR JERRY JEUDY
ALABAMA
20: R1P20
 
OT MEKHI BECTON
LOUISVILLE
42: R2P10
 
C TYLER BIADASZ
WISCONSIN
73: R3P9
...

If you landed a nose tackle in the third instead of C/OG then that kind of draft might work out. 
(with a free agent LB signing of note)

Lots of this will hinge on which players they move on from to clear cap and if they sign defensive free agents in mid-to-late-March.  
If they add a big DT and an ILB early in free agency, then the draft could be heavy on offense. 
If they don't do that, there's no conscionable way to just load up on offense in the draft while ignoring your team's complete and utter inability to stop the run. 

I suspect they will strike a balance with their first five picks this year with at least two of those selections being defenders.

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There are. a bunch of teams with over $50M in cap space already, not including possible cap cuts. With so many teams flush with cap space, the price of even mediocre free agents is going to be through the roof. With the "win now" edict, it's unlikely the Jags FO is going to make the hard decisions and get rid of the high-priced free agents that aren't in the long-term plans. I'm talking Norwell, Bouye, Foles, Campbell, Dareus, etc. 2020 should have been a clean-house year with DM/DC gone and all the tough cuts made in one fell swoop.

As it is, we'll probably pick up a few fading veteran players to fill some holes, but that's about it. Lower-priced positions like S, LB, TE.

I do agree with the premise of fixing the offense first, because that at least gives you some idea of how effective Minshew would be with a decent O-line and more weapons. Someone like OT Thomas and WR Lamb or Higgins in the first round, then address CB and NT in the 2nd and 3rd.

To the Jags credit, the Ramsey trade is looking like the right move. Even with Ramsey, the Jags weren't going to make the playoffs this year or next, and with the Rams on the decline next years's pick could very well be in the top 10. With another 6-10 performance likely, that would be 2 top 10 picks which could be enough draft capital to move up to the 1st overall pick. And if Minshew turns out to the man, and Khan does the right thing and first DM/DC after next season, things could actually start looking up for 2021/2022.

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If you landed a nose tackle in the third instead of C/OG then that kind of draft might work out. 
(with a free agent LB signing of note)

I think you're overestimating how hard it is to find a run stopper. Probably the two best of the last half decade have been Snacks Harrison and Michael Pierce. They were both undrafted. Pierce is a FA and so is DJ Reader who is also excellent at stopping the run and was a 5th rounder.

The problem isn't that it's hard to find a guy to stuff the run, it's just that we didn't even try to have a capable one behind Dareus. Which is how the league is trending in general. If they prioritize it they'll find one and it doesn't have to be with huge draft/FA capital.

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I'd do the opposite and go all D except for an LT in the first to shore up the O-line. It's easier for rookies to make an impact on D. If Caldwell wants to save his job, he'll go that route because that's the most efficient way to get immediate contributions from the draft capital. Ideally, 

1st #9 - best DT or LT available
1st #20 - best DT or LT available 
2nd: best CB or LB available
3rd: best CB or LB available
4th: best CB or LB available
two 5ths, two 6ths, and 7th: run stuffing DT project or BAP anything



On offense, if Cam can be shifted inside, I'd also sign a veteran guard to compete with him. If he loses, he can be the swing tackle. I'd bench/cut AJ Cann. I think we have to keep Norwell because of his contact, but I think he can be solid with a decent LT next to him. Re-sign Linder at a more team-friendly rate or draft his replacement. I'd also sign a veteran TE to add to the mix of O'Shag and the San Diego State kid. (It's hard to get contributions from rookie TEs.) The receiving corps is serviceable although after Chark the depth/talent is mediocre at best. Fournette, Armstead, and undrafted rookies can be serviceable RBs.

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"I am only an average man, but by George, I work harder at it than the average man." - Teddy Roosevelt

If you landed a nose tackle in the third instead of C/OG then that kind of draft might work out. 
(with a free agent LB signing of note)

I think you're overestimating how hard it is to find a run stopper. Probably the two best of the last half decade have been Snacks Harrison and Michael Pierce. They were both undrafted. Pierce is a FA and so is DJ Reader who is also excellent at stopping the run and was a 5th rounder.

The problem isn't that it's hard to find a guy to stuff the run, it's just that we didn't even try to have a capable one behind Dareus. Which is how the league is trending in general. If they prioritize it they'll find one and it doesn't have to be with huge draft/FA capital.

I'm not overestimating anything.  I simply don't want to roll the dice at the position given the negative impact it just had in 2019.  I also don't think it's as simple as you're suggesting.

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This is the kind of draft I'm thinking of:

9: R1P9
 
WR JERRY JEUDY
ALABAMA
20: R1P20
 
OT MEKHI BECTON
LOUISVILLE
42: R2P10
 
C TYLER BIADASZ
WISCONSIN
73: R3P9
...

If you landed a nose tackle in the third instead of C/OG then that kind of draft might work out. 
(with a free agent LB signing of note)

Lots of this will hinge on which players they move on from to clear cap and if they sign defensive free agents in mid-to-late-March.  
If they add a big DT and an ILB early in free agency, then the draft could be heavy on offense. 
If they don't do that, there's no conscionable way to just load up on offense in the draft while ignoring your team's complete and utter inability to stop the run. 

I suspect they will strike a balance with their first five picks this year with at least two of those selections being defenders.

You're right of course, there's no real point (except for our own sanity and entertainment) in getting too specific with exact draft strategies until we see how this team is looking after losses and additions in FA. What we think now inevitably gets flipped on his head by the time the draft arrives.

And I agree that what they probably will do is go for the balanced approach. But I think giving Minshew, or whoever follows him, the absolute best chance to succeed should be priority #1. A balanced approach would most-likely leave us with average at best on both sides of the ball. Focussing on the offense this off-season could actually elevate that side to being good. I think that would be long-term more beneficial than a balanced approach.

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There are. a bunch of teams with over $50M in cap space already, not including possible cap cuts.  With so many teams flush with cap space, the price of even mediocre free agents is going to be through the roof.  With the "win now" edict, it's unlikely the Jags FO is going to make the hard decisions and get rid of the high-priced free agents that aren't in the long-term plans.  I'm talking Norwell, Bouye, Foles, Campbell, Dareus, etc.  2020 should have been a clean-house year with DM/DC gone and all the tough cuts made in one fell swoop.  

As it is, we'll probably pick up a few fading veteran players to fill some holes, but that's about it.  Lower-priced positions like S, LB, TE.  

I do agree with the premise of fixing the offense first, because that at least gives you some idea of how effective Minshew would be with a decent O-line and more weapons.  Someone like OT Thomas and WR Lamb or Higgins in the first round, then address CB and NT in the 2nd and 3rd.

To the Jags credit, the Ramsey trade is looking like the right move.  Even with Ramsey, the Jags weren't going to make the playoffs this year or next, and with the Rams on the decline next years's pick could very well be in the top 10.  With another 6-10 performance likely, that would be 2 top 10 picks which could be enough draft capital to move up to the 1st overall pick.  And if Minshew turns out to the man, and Khan does the right thing and first DM/DC after next season, things could actually start looking up for 2021/2022.

Good points. You're right that the pressure on the FO will probably lead them to keep some of those vets that should ideally be shown the door. I really hope they don't restructure contracts to give us cap issues in future years....

Regarding trades and draft picks, I also think there's a pretty high chance we have another first round pick on this draft, and a Yannick-sized hole on our roster too. We will see...

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If you landed a nose tackle in the third instead of C/OG then that kind of draft might work out. 
(with a free agent LB signing of note)

Lots of this will hinge on which players they move on from to clear cap and if they sign defensive free agents in mid-to-late-March.  
If they add a big DT and an ILB early in free agency, then the draft could be heavy on offense. 
If they don't do that, there's no conscionable way to just load up on offense in the draft while ignoring your team's complete and utter inability to stop the run. 

I suspect they will strike a balance with their first five picks this year with at least two of those selections being defenders.

You're right of course, there's no real point (except for our own sanity and entertainment) in getting too specific with exact draft strategies until we see how this team is looking after losses and additions in FA. What we think now inevitably gets flipped on his head by the time the draft arrives.

And I agree that what they probably will do is go for the balanced approach. But I think giving Minshew, or whoever follows him, the absolute best chance to succeed should be priority #1. A balanced approach would most-likely leave us with average at best on both sides of the ball. Focussing on the offense this off-season could actually elevate that side to being good. I think that would be long-term more beneficial than a balanced approach.

My issue with this assumption of "average" offense is that Minshew actually put up good numbers despite what was around him in 2019.  
So what will he produce if the Jags manage to upgrade at least one lineman, add a TE better than the street free agents we ran with most of last year, and operate out of a new offense that doesn't hinge so heavily on Fournette? 

Because - I feel like those are attainable goals even while drafting a couple of defenders fairly early.

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You're right of course, there's no real point (except for our own sanity and entertainment) in getting too specific with exact draft strategies until we see how this team is looking after losses and additions in FA. What we think now inevitably gets flipped on his head by the time the draft arrives.

And I agree that what they probably will do is go for the balanced approach. But I think giving Minshew, or whoever follows him, the absolute best chance to succeed should be priority #1. A balanced approach would most-likely leave us with average at best on both sides of the ball. Focussing on the offense this off-season could actually elevate that side to being good. I think that would be long-term more beneficial than a balanced approach.

My issue with this assumption of "average" offense is that Minshew actually put up good numbers despite what was around him in 2019.  
So what will he produce if the Jags manage to upgrade at least one lineman, add a TE better than the street free agents we ran with most of last year, and operate out of a new offense that doesn't hinge so heavily on Fournette? 

Because - I feel like those are attainable goals even while drafting a couple of defenders fairly early.

Yeah Minshew put up good numbers last year. At times he looked great, and at times he struggled. There were multiple moments when it looked as if defenses had him sussed, and once they took away his primary options he didn't have much of an answer for it, due to a lack of other weapons. The offense overall was not particularly good.

With moderate investment on offense it's fair to say there is a possibility of moderate improvement. With big investment it's fair to say there is a possibility of big improvement. That big investment makes sense because we will either see Minshew step up and we know we have our guy, or he struggles and we have an offense filled with weapons for a rookie to come into the next year.

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My issue with this assumption of "average" offense is that Minshew actually put up good numbers despite what was around him in 2019.  
So what will he produce if the Jags manage to upgrade at least one lineman, add a TE better than the street free agents we ran with most of last year, and operate out of a new offense that doesn't hinge so heavily on Fournette? 

Because - I feel like those are attainable goals even while drafting a couple of defenders fairly early.

Yeah Minshew put up good numbers last year. At times he looked great, and at times he struggled. There were multiple moments when it looked as if defenses had him sussed, and once they took away his primary options he didn't have much of an answer for it, due to a lack of other weapons. The offense overall was not particularly good.

With moderate investment on offense it's fair to say there is a possibility of moderate improvement. With big investment it's fair to say there is a possibility of big improvement. That big investment makes sense because we will either see Minshew step up and we know we have our guy, or he struggles and we have an offense filled with weapons for a rookie to come into the next year.

Yep, you get it. I believe a few do. To me it’s all about figuring out this QB situation and fixing the problem that has caused this franchise to draft 19/26 drafts in the top 10. The reason we are worst team last decade. Complete mismanagement of the QB position. High defense picks are when you either have your QB or you have a guy in there developing. 

Some might say “what do you mean, we have a guy developing don’t we?” Yes and no. We have a 6th rounder out there combined with a FO/coaching staff that is on thin ice. There is no commitment at all to Minshew, one bad season and the new FO will look to get their guy. Only way they don’t is if Minshew proves he is the guy THIS upcoming season. Otherwise again, it’ll be a waste and we will be drafting a new QB 2021. 

It’s a pretty [BLEEP] situation, but the reality is we have got to give Minshew a chance and dedicate this offseason to him. Otherwise if they go in with something similar, the season will be a loss without question and Caldwell/Marrone/Minshew will be gone as well.

Guys they couldn’t protect Minshew for the life of him. This line needs more than 1 guy, they need a complete revamp. There’s no weapons other than Chark. It’s a terrible offense, and situation for Minshew.

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They need to get some players around Minshew. Put a 6th-round rookie out there with bad blocking and no TE? He did better than most would have. The run defense actually got better towards the end with a bunch of no-name LBs, so who knows? Maybe you can build a defense out of scrubs if you have one good DE and CB.

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IMO many people are making this much more difficult than it has to be. There are 2-3 GLARING needs on offense, OL x2 and a TE. Why people keep saying we NEED a WR in the 1st round is beyond me, did you watch the games? WR was not at the top of the offensive issues and as deep as this draft is, if you are going to pick one, much later in the draft. IMO, I think the Jags can be competitive after this off-season IF they make the right decisions. For the last several years every off-season has been geared toward defense and we still NEED a DT, MLB, CB, FS. With all the picks the Jags have and POTENTIAL cap space these Starting positions can be fixed. Of course, most will be young and make mistakes but can be competitive. If the feeling is that the Jags cannot be competitive next year then I vote to BLOW IT UP this next year and go with your young base as much as possible.

Take the salary cap hits this year, cut/trade/restructure:

Dareus- restructure if healthy and you can, cut/trade if you can't.
Foles- cut/trade this guy. He can still play but needs a good OL and a TE which the Jags do not have.
Campbell- really wanna keep this guy around if possible because he is still playing well and can play multiple positions. The leadership thing is a bit overrated IMO because look at the disarray that's been the defense for a while. Great for Jacksonville.
Bouye- he's not what he was but can you find better for the price? If so, he's gone, if not do what you gotta do and try to restructure.
Jack- Ugh, has to move back outside but young and signed.
Norwell- if you can re-structure, if not and the Jags have drafted his replacement cut/trade.
Lee- GONE, GONE, GONE.
Cann- GONE,
Ryan- kinda torn here, depends on actual health. If he is healthy keep him around and give him a try, if it's questionable he's gone.
Swaim- Depends on what is brought in cut/trade.

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IMO many people are making this much more difficult than it has to be. There are 2-3 GLARING needs on offense, OL x2 and a TE. Why people keep saying we NEED a WR in the 1st round is beyond me, did you watch the games? WR was not at the top of the offensive issues and as deep as this draft is, if you are going to pick one, much later in the draft. IMO, I think the Jags can be competitive after this off-season IF they make the right decisions. For the last several years every off-season has been geared toward defense and we still NEED a DT, MLB, CB, FS. With all the picks the Jags have and POTENTIAL cap space these Starting positions can be fixed. Of course, most will be young and make mistakes but can be competitive. If the feeling is that the Jags cannot be competitive next year then I vote to BLOW IT UP this next year and go with your young base as much as possible.

Take the salary cap hits this year, cut/trade/restructure:

Dareus- restructure if healthy and you can, cut/trade if you can't.
Foles- cut/trade this guy. He can still play but needs a good OL and a TE which the Jags do not have.
Campbell- really wanna keep this guy around if possible because he is still playing well and can play multiple positions. The leadership thing is a bit overrated IMO because look at the disarray that's been the defense for a while. Great for Jacksonville.
Bouye- he's not what he was but can you find better for the price? If so, he's gone, if not do what you gotta do and try to restructure.
Jack- Ugh, has to move back outside but young and signed.
Norwell- if you can re-structure, if not and the Jags have drafted his replacement cut/trade.
Lee- GONE, GONE, GONE.
Cann- GONE, Ryan- kinda torn here, depends on actual health. If he is healthy keep him around and give him a try, if it's questionable he's gone.
Swaim- Depends on what is brought in cut/trade.

So you say the jags can be competitive next year... And then list 9 players on the roster with massive question marks over their heads. IMO it's irrationally optimistic to have any expectations that this team can be truly competitive next year. And by competitive I mean competing for a Superbowl, because if it's not that, then what are you competing for?

You're right, WR is less of a need than many other positions. We are totally adequate at the position. The question is, would being more than adequate help our young QB (or any QB) develop into a top player? If so, maybe that's the best thing for the future of this team.

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Everyone needs to remember you aren't drafting for the upcoming year in the draft, rather the following years and roster.

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IMO many people are making this much more difficult than it has to be. There are 2-3 GLARING needs on offense, OL x2 and a TE. Why people keep saying we NEED a WR in the 1st round is beyond me, did you watch the games? WR was not at the top of the offensive issues and as deep as this draft is, if you are going to pick one, much later in the draft. IMO, I think the Jags can be competitive after this off-season IF they make the right decisions. For the last several years every off-season has been geared toward defense and we still NEED a DT, MLB, CB, FS. With all the picks the Jags have and POTENTIAL cap space these Starting positions can be fixed. Of course, most will be young and make mistakes but can be competitive. If the feeling is that the Jags cannot be competitive next year then I vote to BLOW IT UP this next year and go with your young base as much as possible.

Take the salary cap hits this year, cut/trade/restructure:

Dareus- restructure if healthy and you can, cut/trade if you can't.
Foles- cut/trade this guy. He can still play but needs a good OL and a TE which the Jags do not have.
Campbell- really wanna keep this guy around if possible because he is still playing well and can play multiple positions. The leadership thing is a bit overrated IMO because look at the disarray that's been the defense for a while. Great for Jacksonville.
Bouye- he's not what he was but can you find better for the price? If so, he's gone, if not do what you gotta do and try to restructure.
Jack- Ugh, has to move back outside but young and signed.
Norwell- if you can re-structure, if not and the Jags have drafted his replacement cut/trade.
Lee- GONE, GONE, GONE.
Cann- GONE,
Ryan- kinda torn here, depends on actual health. If he is healthy keep him around and give him a try, if it's questionable he's gone.
Swaim- Depends on what is brought in cut/trade.

So you say the jags can be competitive next year... And then list 9 players on the roster with massive question marks over their heads. IMO it's irrationally optimistic to have any expectations that this team can be truly competitive next year. And by competitive I mean competing for a Superbowl, because if it's not that, then what are you competing for?

You're right, WR is less of a need than many other positions. We are totally adequate at the position. The question is, would being more than adequate help our young QB (or any QB) develop into a top player? If so, maybe that's the best thing for the future of this team.

When I say competitive, I mean playoffs. By your evaluation every year there are 30 teams that shouldn't even bothered playing because they didn't make it to the Superbowl.
Of those 9 I listed they were only there because of the cap hit but realistically, only 4 or 5 were positive contributors for the season (Dareus, Campbell, Bouye, Jack, Norwell- Arguably). The others absence wouldn't be noticed much and could get just as much from a rookie or FA. With 9 draft picks and 4 picks in the first 3 rounds there is a lot of talent there.

Wouldn't the QB having time to pass the ball or the RB not getting hit in the backfield not help the QB more than another WR? IMO if the OL and TE get fixed next year, that can fix the offense to be competitive. Are there other places that need upgrading? Certainly, but if the OL doesn't get fixed it doesn't matter who the new offensive coordinator is or if the Jags have the next Michael Irvin.

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So you say the jags can be competitive next year... And then list 9 players on the roster with massive question marks over their heads. IMO it's irrationally optimistic to have any expectations that this team can be truly competitive next year. And by competitive I mean competing for a Superbowl, because if it's not that, then what are you competing for?

You're right, WR is less of a need than many other positions. We are totally adequate at the position. The question is, would being more than adequate help our young QB (or any QB) develop into a top player? If so, maybe that's the best thing for the future of this team.

When I say competitive, I mean playoffs. By your evaluation every year there are 30 teams that shouldn't even bothered playing because they didn't make it to the Superbowl.
Of those 9 I listed they were only there because of the cap hit but realistically, only 4 or 5 were positive contributors for the season (Dareus, Campbell, Bouye, Jack, Norwell- Arguably). The others absence wouldn't be noticed much and could get just as much from a rookie or FA. With 9 draft picks and 4 picks in the first 3 rounds there is a lot of talent there.

Wouldn't the QB having time to pass the ball or the RB not getting hit in the backfield not help the QB more than another WR? IMO if the OL and TE get fixed next year, that can fix the offense to be competitive. Are there other places that need upgrading? Certainly, but if the OL doesn't get fixed it doesn't matter who the new offensive coordinator is or if the Jags have the next Michael Irvin.

When I say competitive enough to be 'competing for the superbowl', that doesn't mean only the two teams who play in the SB. It means any team who, at the start of the season, has enough talent on the team that making it to the Superbowl is a realistic target. There are probably around ten teams each year that can realistically say that (and many of them are usually in that group year after year due to QB). Of course, having the talent to make it to the SB provides no guarantee of success (see Dallas 2019). Occasionally there are surprise teams, like the tacks this year, us in 2017, where everything lines up right, but obviously they are the exception to the rule.

That's where I want to see the Jags, as a permanent fixture in those top ten or so teams that have a reasonable chance of making it to the SB every year. The best way to do that is to have a top-level QB. The best way to have a top-level QB is to build a structure that gives your QB the absolute best chance to succeed (and of course finding the right guy). Hence, why I'm arguing for building the offense up as much as possible, even at the expense of the defense.

As for your WR vs O-line debate, if you have actually read this thread you would see I'm not proposing one or the other, I want both. I couldn't agree with you more about improving the O-line and TE talent on this team. I also think adding elite WR talent such as Jeudy or Lamb at 9, or Ruggs at 20 (there are plenty of other options in this draft), could take our offense from 'good enough' to legitimately good.

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Everyone needs to remember you aren't drafting for the upcoming year in the draft, rather the following years and roster.

This.

It would be so counter-productive to go into this (or any) draft with the intention of filling out current holes to try and make us competitive this year. Rookies simply cannot be relied upon to change the fortunes of a team for that season.

The draft needs to be about long term vision of how we see the team developing, and what shape we want it to have in the future.

The idea of going heavy on offense this off-season is all about putting a talented nucleus of young players around our talented young QB and hopefully allowing them to develop together to be something special in the future.

To be totally clear again on one point: I am not suggesting this strategy would lead to a successful 2020 season in the W/L column. I am suggesting it would be the best thing to set us up for the future.

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