My simplified response is that the entire draft is a gamble. People like to post that blah blah player is a sure thing, but no one is. Even Burrow is a gamble. Hindsight is always 20/20. You play the percentages and don’t look back when the percentage played in the houses favor.

Successful people don’t let past failures dictate their future success. If your guy drops to 2nd and won’t be there when you pick, trade up.

Succinctly put,

My main caveat to the whole trade up in the 2nd thing is to not give up a future first round pick to do so, like the Skins and Chargers often did under Beathard.

In most cases sure, but let’s say a Ramsey type somehow fell to the 2nd. You wouldn’t trade a first for him? 

If your scouts are on the line screaming this guy is a game changer for our team. He’s a jackpot! We see something nobody else does. That’s the game right. Pulling off first round talent in the 2nd, 3rd, whatever round. 

Wonder what round Yan would go in today... or Minshew.

I don’t envy DC. It has to be incredibly stressful.

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It would all depend on the price of trading up in round 2. I could see the Jaguars targeting a cornerback in this round so if there's a big gap between the number 1 and 2 guys on the board I'd be willing to trade up a few spots. However, I wouldn't want to part with anymore than a 4th or 5th rounder. Third rounders are too valuable to give up- especially in this draft which is very deep. Parting with a 3rd rounder might mean not getting to draft Mims or another potential star who has dropped.

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This draft is going to be wild for sure. No Coughlin to botch the pick with an overrated RB or a DT project in round 1. 2 first round picks for the Jags which hasn't happened in a really long time. Possible QB drops which could make pick #20 interesting.

I also think I'm more interested at pick 20 than I am pick 9. In the last few drafts, here are some players available around pick 20:

2019: Simmons, Savagae, Dillard, Hollywood, Sweat
2018: Derwin James, Vander Esch, DJ Moore, Ragnow, Price, Alexander
2017: Johnathan Allen, Adoree, OJ Howard, Jarrad Davis
2016: Ryan Kelly, Shaw Lawson, Darron Lee, Fuller

Some really interesting prospects seem to fall in that range and this could be huge for the Jags.

---

To begin, I would be remiss to say that usually when we see a wall of text, our first reaction is "TLDR", but Bullseye, I love to read these posts from you. They are thorough, informative and help guide the discussion you prompt. Glad to hear things are getting better, and keep fighting.

Now to the topic. I've been perfectly fine with Dave making the moves he has made in the twoth round. I went back to check just to be safe, but the year we were at the back of the rounds (2018), Dave stayed put, and picked in the order prescribed. More often than not, when Dave moves around in the second, it is finessing around to jump a few spots in the order to get a guy, as you or others have already said, likely carried first-round grades but managed to slip. The moves don't break the bank or mortgage the future, but often target a current need (Taylor) or take advantage of clear value that is too good to pass up (Jack).

I think a lot of what needs to be looked at when reviewing those trades is who the next guy was that either was picked at that position or who would have been a likely target of ours. How big was the talent dropoff? Was it worth losing a later-round pick to be sure we got the player we felt was that much better? In most cases, I fully understood the move, and was satisfied with both the trade to move up and the player taken. To the best of my knowledge, Dave has never broken the bank in pursuit of a 'crush' he's had on a player, in any round.

In most every case, even with Dave's record of finding talent in later rounds, the earlier picks are the ones you use to build the foundation of a roster. Finding a starting QB in the 6th is an anomaly. Nobody expects a 5th round OT to become an all-pro. More often than not, those are guys that spend a few years covering kicks, and getting most of their reps on a practice field, barring injury to the starters. Dave's also shown that he can find some gems in UDFA, so that softens the blow of dealing the picks that would be used on these type of depth guys.

What makes the darft so intriguing is the anticipation when you pick approaches, and then the hindsight of what you would have done if you were the GM instead. Looking at the wide range of players available at any pick, and thinking either that you outsmarted the rest of the room, or lamenting that you passed on a guy you expected to be a legend on the field. I don't think Dave has given us any reason not to trust his acumen with regard to movement on darft day.

I look forward to seeing what he can accomplish.

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Your take on the coaching is fully consistent with your prior assessments of Jaguars coaching, and is even more intriguing in this context.  I am not sold that coaching may have hindered the development of Linder or the rest of the OL.  The year before he arrived, the Jaguars allowed 71 sacks.  Marrone came aboard in 2015 and the team allowed 51 sacks, twenty fewer than the year before..  The next year, the sacks allowed dropped by 1/3 down to 34 sacks allowed. By 2017, the Marrone coached OL allowed 24 sacks.  I am not sure how the OL as a whole can show that dramatic improvement over three years if the individuals on that line were not being developed properly during that time. Now I can buy the argument that the development may have plateaued/peaked, but that happens with all players at some point and I am unsure if blame can be assigned to Marrone during that time.  However, I was NOT fond of Jawaan Taylor's development under Warhop.  I preferred the old OL coach (I can't recall his name). 

I think we pretty much see eye to eye everywhere else.

There were upgrades to the OL in both 2015 (Parnell, Cann, Wisnewski) and 2016 (Beachum, Linder back from injury, Beadles cut). In 2017 Marrone was no longer the OL coach, he was the head coach, and Fournette had a lot to do with the drop in sacks that year, probably more than Robinson replacing Beachum.

Robinson's best year was his rookie year. Same with Cann. Linder is really the only draft pick on the OL who might have improved at all after his rookie year, and his improvement hasn't been significant. IIRC, he was one of the top graded guards by PFF in 2014.

Maybe the hiring of Warhop was Marrone admitting that his predecessor (I can't recall the old coach's name either) wasn't doing a good job. I have heard that the Bucs fans hated Warhop. We can only hope they were wrong. I remember reading an article with Taylor saying he's learned a lot from Warhop, and that his play has improved over the year. If that's true he still has a lot of room for improvement.

That is a fair/reasoned analysis that I can not readily rebut.

But is it possible Caldwell drafted guys with high floors and low ceilings such that they could come in as rookies and perform well, but could not develop their games beyond what they had coming in?  If so, is that a plus or minus in the analysis of Caldwell?

I am on the record of being against the changes to the coaching staff made after the 2018 season.  As it currently stands, I am not a fan of Warhop .

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The best our line during this era has been was 2017 when Pat Flaherty took charge, he has long a track record of making lines into good units. Then in 2018 everyone was injured and he was scapegoated albeit there was likely personality clashes involved as Pat isn't the tamest soul around and he was let go in a matter of months by the Dolphins just last year.

Warhop has been a pretty unimpressive offensive line coach and multiple stops but was hired because he's friends with Doug and Doug rates his ability to develop players. He was quite poor last year imo, even with Taylor developing as the season went on

Flaherty!  His termination was one of my biggest concens.  Warhops has done nothing to assuage them.  In fact he has exacerbated them.  I am not impressed at all with Taylor's development.

---

 

Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!

Succinctly put,

My main caveat to the whole trade up in the 2nd thing is to not give up a future first round pick to do so, like the Skins and Chargers often did under Beathard.

In most cases sure, but let’s say a Ramsey type somehow fell to the 2nd. You wouldn’t trade a first for him? 

If your scouts are on the line screaming this guy is a game changer for our team. He’s a jackpot! We see something nobody else does. That’s the game right. Pulling off first round talent in the 2nd, 3rd, whatever round. 

Wonder what round Yan would go in today... or Minshew.

I don’t envy DC. It has to be incredibly stressful.

In such an unusual example where scouts unanimously and vociferously advocate for a second rounder, it's doubtful I would pull the trigger on a future first rounder, but I would at least consider it.  If the position between my pck and the pick it would take to land the player is similar to the distance betwen the Jaguars original pick in the 3nd and the pick needed to acquire Jack (approx four spots), that pick could likely be acquired for less than a future one.

A 2 this year and a one next year to move up <15 spots in the second round?  Nahh.

---

 

Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!

To be fair, you question the quality of that list of players but ARob, Cam Robinson, Jack and Taylor are all long term starters and border between average to very good. True, a few of them haven't developed (yet) into what we hoped, but it's still a pretty good hit list for the second round of the draft.

As for the strategy I think it's a good one, providing the right player is there of course. It seems like every year there are two things that are always true about the draft: 1. Jags will be picking high 2. At least one widely expected top 20 pick will slide down to the second round. If that player happens to also fit an obvious need Caldwell has shown himself very willing to move up and get him. I like that strategy.

The draft is all about tiers. I remember Dave clearly saying when they drafted ARob he was the last WR available in their top tier of WRs, so they felt the need to go up and get him. Managing the draft is all about managing the tiers, if you can get the last guy in each tier at a position of need then you have got great value.

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It would all depend on the price of trading up in round 2. I could see the Jaguars targeting a cornerback in this round so if there's a big gap between the number 1 and 2 guys on the board I'd be willing to trade up a few spots. However, I wouldn't want to part with anymore than a 4th or 5th rounder. Third rounders are too valuable to give up- especially in this draft which is very deep. Parting with a 3rd rounder might mean not getting to draft Mims or another potential star who has dropped.

Makes sense to me, though I will add as an aside that we may be facing the prospect of having to fill 3/4 secondary spots if we release Bouye.  No, I don't trust Herndon yet.

I could see a scenario where we go CB at 20 and in the 2nd round and take a S later.  Or for that matter, of somehow Okudah fell to 9, I could see the team taking three DBs between rounds  in the first four picks.

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Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!

This draft is going to be wild for sure. No Coughlin to botch the pick with an overrated RB or a DT project in round 1. 2 first round picks for the Jags which hasn't happened in a really long time. Possible QB drops which could make pick #20 interesting.

I also think I'm more interested at pick 20 than I am pick 9. In the last few drafts, here are some players available around pick 20:

2019: Simmons, Savagae, Dillard, Hollywood, Sweat
2018: Derwin James, Vander Esch, DJ Moore, Ragnow, Price, Alexander
2017: Johnathan Allen, Adoree, OJ Howard, Jarrad Davis
2016:  Ryan Kelly, Shaw Lawson, Darron Lee, Fuller

Some really interesting prospects seem to fall in that range and this could be huge for the Jags.

1.  When you say possible QB drops, do you mean QBs like Tua or Herbert who, for whatever reason, may fall to us at 20 and tempt us to take him, or are you talking about players at other positions pushed lower than what would ordinarily be expected because the QBs are on the board?

2.   Without question, we should be able to find a quality player at 20.  In fact, given the depth at WR, we should be able to find a quality contributor into the 3rd round.

---

 

Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!

To begin, I would be remiss to say that usually when we see a wall of text, our first reaction is "TLDR", but Bullseye, I love to read these posts from you. They are thorough, informative and help guide the discussion you prompt.  Glad to hear things are getting better, and keep fighting.

Now to the topic.  I've been perfectly fine with Dave making the moves he has made in the twoth round. I went back to check just to be safe, but the year we were at the back of the rounds (2018), Dave stayed put, and picked in the order prescribed. More often than not, when Dave moves around in the second, it is finessing around to jump a few spots in the order to get a guy, as you or others have already said, likely carried first-round grades but managed to slip. The moves don't break the bank or mortgage the future, but often target a current need (Taylor) or take advantage of clear value that is too good to pass up (Jack).

I think a lot of what needs to be looked at when reviewing those trades is who the next guy was that either was picked at that position or who would have been a likely target of ours. How big was the talent dropoff? Was it worth losing a later-round pick to be sure we got the player we felt was that much better? In most cases, I fully understood the move, and was satisfied with both the trade to move up and the player taken. To the best of my knowledge, Dave has never broken the bank in pursuit of a 'crush' he's had on a player, in any round.

In most every case, even with Dave's record of finding talent in later rounds, the earlier picks are the ones you use to build the foundation of a roster. Finding a starting QB in the 6th is an anomaly. Nobody expects a 5th round OT to become an all-pro. More often than not, those are guys that spend a few years covering kicks, and getting most of their reps on a practice field, barring injury to the starters. Dave's also shown that he can find some gems in UDFA, so that softens the blow of dealing the picks that would be used on these type of depth guys.

What makes the darft so intriguing is the anticipation when you pick approaches, and then the hindsight of what you would have done if you were the GM instead. Looking at the wide range of players available at any pick, and thinking either that you outsmarted the rest of the room, or lamenting that you passed on a guy you expected to be a legend on the field.  I don't think Dave has given us any reason not to trust his acumen with regard to movement on darft day.

I look forward to seeing what he can accomplish.

Thank you and everyone else for the welcome back and well wishes.

It's interesting that with as many detractors as Caldwell has, very few have expressed any negative reaction to his strategy of trading up in round 2, even though historically speaking, this board has expressed a general aversion to trading up in the draft.

Of course there are plenty who have yet to chime in on the subject, but I don't expect much change, if people are consistent with their "immediate real time responses" when those moves were made (or as close to that as posting on the board allows).

I share your reasons (and I submit a few more) as to what makes the draft intriguing.  I love researching the players and predicting their prospects for success or failure in the league, and debating my views with others.  One of my most satisfying prognostications came a few years back when, months before the draft, I predicted the Bills would draft Aaron Maybin and he would be a horrible bust for them.  I throw that in my buddy's face to this day.  I love trying to get into the heads of teams and GMs in mock drafts and while the team's are in the clock.  After the picks are made, I try to figure out the reasons why they did what they did.  I'm still trying to figure out how the Jets, Raiders, Bucs and Giants all managed to pass on Josh Allen...or lookinf back and trying to figure out why a guy succeeds or fails.  Just the opportunity to talk football makes it fun.

My goal this offseason is to do more research than usual, not just on the players, but on the GMs, to try to get a better gauge on how they think.

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Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!

Bullseye, so good to see you back.

I wanted Caldwell gone not because he's done a terrible job drafting, because I think his drafts have been okay except for his first round reaches, I wanted him gone because it was an ideal time to do it with multiple first round picks coming and a decimated team a new guy could come in and put his stamp on the team quickly and decisively.

I'll follow Vic's advice and continue to watch, but the 2017 draft was pivotal. Take Mahomes or Watson there and we'd be looking at a decade of dominance. Instead they reached for a bad running back in a draft deep in running backs and we continue to be the new Bengals/Lions/Browns.

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This draft is going to be wild for sure. No Coughlin to botch the pick with an overrated RB or a DT project in round 1. 2 first round picks for the Jags which hasn't happened in a really long time. Possible QB drops which could make pick #20 interesting.

I also think I'm more interested at pick 20 than I am pick 9. In the last few drafts, here are some players available around pick 20:

2019: Simmons, Savagae, Dillard, Hollywood, Sweat
2018: Derwin James, Vander Esch, DJ Moore, Ragnow, Price, Alexander
2017: Johnathan Allen, Adoree, OJ Howard, Jarrad Davis
2016:  Ryan Kelly, Shaw Lawson, Darron Lee, Fuller

Some really interesting prospects seem to fall in that range and this could be huge for the Jags.

1.  When you say possible QB drops, do you mean QBs like Tua or Herbert who, for whatever reason, may fall to us at 20 and tempt us to take him, or are you talking about players at other positions pushed lower than what would ordinarily be expected because the QBs are on the board?

2.   Without question, we should be able to find a quality player at 20.  In fact, given the depth at WR, we should be able to find a quality contributor into the 3rd round.

1. I was kinda thinking both. If Herbert, Tua, and even Love all go top 15, it pushes down some really good players to us. On the flip side, if Herbert or Tua fall to 20, it will allow us to trade down and accumulate more 2nd rounders which would be amazing.

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Bullseye, so good to see you back.

I wanted Caldwell gone not because he's done a terrible job drafting, because I think his drafts have been okay except for his first round reaches, I wanted him gone because it was an ideal time to do it with multiple first round picks coming and a decimated team a new guy could come in and put his stamp on the team quickly and decisively.

I'll follow Vic's advice and continue to watch, but the 2017 draft was pivotal. Take Mahomes or Watson there and we'd be looking at a decade of dominance. Instead they reached for a bad running back in a draft deep in running backs and we continue to be the new Bengals/Lions/Browns.

Thank you,  Good to be back.

That is a rationale I get-fresh start and a boat load of picks with which to build anew.

Your closing statement raises an important question:  Which Jaguars QB pass up is most painful to you?


2005 passing Aaron Rodgers

2008-switching places with Baltimore to seem them take Joe Flacco?


2012-Bryan Anger over Russell Wilson

2017-Fournette over Mahomes and Watson

2018-Taven Bryan over Lamar Jackson?

Am I the only one that tastes the bile??!?

---

1.  When you say possible QB drops, do you mean QBs like Tua or Herbert who, for whatever reason, may fall to us at 20 and tempt us to take him, or are you talking about players at other positions pushed lower than what would ordinarily be expected because the QBs are on the board?

2.   Without question, we should be able to find a quality player at 20.  In fact, given the depth at WR, we should be able to find a quality contributor into the 3rd round.

1. I was kinda thinking both. If Herbert, Tua, and even Love all go top 15, it pushes down some really good players to us. On the flip side, if Herbert or Tua fall to 20, it will allow us to trade down and accumulate more 2nd rounders which would be amazing.

If Tua or Herbert somehow fell to 20, I'm not si sure if I bypass them, even with Minshew and Foles on the roster.

---

 

Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!

I'd put the 2005 draft as the worst because of mattloaf, but the 2017 one is close because of taking a running back on the top five, which is so stupid the instigators should probably go to jail for it. The Wilson one is after those only because the first two were such collosal mistakes. The fact that guys get paid millions to live the dream of immersing themselves in football all day is crazy, because most of them seem to have no better idea of what players are good than a group of enthusiasts would given the chance to run a team.

---

Bullseye, so good to see you back.

I wanted Caldwell gone not because he's done a terrible job drafting, because I think his drafts have been okay except for his first round reaches, I wanted him gone because it was an ideal time to do it with multiple first round picks coming and a decimated team a new guy could come in and put his stamp on the team quickly and decisively.

I'll follow Vic's advice and continue to watch, but the 2017 draft was pivotal. Take Mahomes or Watson there and we'd be looking at a decade of dominance. Instead they reached for a bad running back in a draft deep in running backs and we continue to be the new Bengals/Lions/Browns.

Thank you,  Good to be back.

That is a rationale I get-fresh start and a boat load of picks with which to build anew.

Your closing statement raises an important question:  Which Jaguars QB pass up is most painful to you?


2005 passing Aaron Rodgers

2008-switching places with Baltimore to seem them take Joe Flacco?

2012-Bryan Anger over Russell Wilson

2017-Fournette over Mahomes and Watson

2018-Taven Bryan over Lamar Jackson?

Am I the only one that tastes the bile??!?

I'd have to go with Russell Wilson or Watson. Both guys seem have had limited "QB" whisperer grooming. Wilson came into a better team so was able to get to 2 SB's quickly. Both have been able to carry their offenses for stretchs, Wilson for longer but he is also more experienced. In the situation of average "at best" offense coaching and limited offensive weapons, they would probably have been the best shots. Plus I mean a punter, really?

Flacco had really 1 good playoff run. JDR's teams were okay, but Flacco wouldn't have really put them over the top.

Lamar really requires a specific personnel to run his style. I would not have trusted any Jags HC/FO to tailor their team to his style. They would have done the opposite.

Rodgers was a good prospect, but who knows how much those 3 years of grooming help him and what QB he would have been without it. Same for Mahomes rookie year. Jags never really had the coaching to pull that off, unless you consider Bortles being "passable" for 1 season being good enough.

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We probably need to revisit the whole Caldwell good in the 2nd round thing first. I think it's pretty easy to argue that only Arob and Chark have lived up to their draft value out of Caldwell's 8 2nd round picks (Taylor tbd).

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For some reason we always find gems in the 2nd round.

Going back to Mathis, MJD, Tony Brackens, etc.

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I actually think trading down in the 2nd could make more sense for us this year. It could be a way to pick up more mid-rounders in a very deep draft this year to try to fill the many holes we have.

It seems to me that after the top 20 or so players in this draft the quality then drops off to a 'decent to good starter' level, and stays that way up until the end of the 4th... it would be great to have multiple picks in 2nd, 3rd, 4th rounds. So much so that I wouldn't be against trading down from 1.20 for multiple picks.

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Bullseye, so good to see you back.

I wanted Caldwell gone not because he's done a terrible job drafting, because I think his drafts have been okay except for his first round reaches, I wanted him gone because it was an ideal time to do it with multiple first round picks coming and a decimated team a new guy could come in and put his stamp on the team quickly and decisively.

I'll follow Vic's advice and continue to watch, but the 2017 draft was pivotal. Take Mahomes or Watson there and we'd be looking at a decade of dominance. Instead they reached for a bad running back in a draft deep in running backs and we continue to be the new Bengals/Lions/Browns.

Thank you,  Good to be back.

That is a rationale I get-fresh start and a boat load of picks with which to build anew.

Your closing statement raises an important question:  Which Jaguars QB pass up is most painful to you?


2005 passing Aaron Rodgers

2008-switching places with Baltimore to seem them take Joe Flacco?


2012-Bryan Anger over Russell Wilson

2017-Fournette over Mahomes and Watson

2018-Taven Bryan over Lamar Jackson?

Am I the only one that tastes the bile??!?

---

1. I was kinda thinking both. If Herbert, Tua, and even Love all go top 15, it pushes down some really good players to us. On the flip side, if Herbert or Tua fall to 20, it will allow us to trade down and accumulate more 2nd rounders which would be amazing.

If Tua or Herbert somehow fell to 20, I'm not si sure if I bypass them, even with Minshew and Foles on the roster.

20? If they fall to NINE you take them!!! Franchise QB's dont grow on trees, you can always trade them, and as last year showed us the importance of stockpiling talent at the QB position.

That said neither will be available come 9.

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Championship Formula:

1) Draft Trevor Lawrence!
2) Play good physical Defense! 
3) Keep 91% of the roster healthy!
4) ???
5) Blank #2
6) CHAMPIONSHIP!!!