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2020 Offseason and the "Win-Now" Concern

#41
(This post was last modified: 05-21-2020, 09:07 PM by Newton.)

Minshew will become the guy. Obviously no one knows that for sure, but he looked every bit he part in his first 5 games or so before teams figured our offense out and coaching never changed the game plan. I am very confident in him. I think the acquisition of tall Pass catchers and a 3rd down back will help a lot in the red zone, and allow him to score without having to try to extend plays as much.
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#42

I have substantial doubts that Watson will ever win a Super Bowl.
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#43

(05-21-2020, 09:32 PM)JaguarKick Wrote: I have substantial doubts that Watson will ever win a Super Bowl.

I read somewhere that Deandre "push-off artist" Hopkins has been on the field all but a handful of snaps during Watson's career. I think he's overrated, overhyped. We'll see.
"I am only an average man, but by George, I work harder at it than the average man." - Teddy Roosevelt

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#44

The big knock against Caldwell has been his mismanagement of the cap - rewarding lesser talented players like Bortles and Lee over keeping A-Rob and potentially drafting Watson, Mahommes or Jackson to replace Bortles. He's actually pretty good at drafting - he's put together three solid drafts in a row (IMHO). I'd be okay with keeping him around next season.

Marrone, I have no idea what to think. I still say it was he, not the refs, who cost us a chance to go to the Super Bowl against the Patriots.
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#45

(05-21-2020, 09:39 AM)Cleatwood Wrote:
(05-21-2020, 09:20 AM)flgatorsandjags Wrote: How do you do this?  Tell all the players to not play hard even if this team is good enough to win?   You tell the team to play their [BLEEP] off and prepare this team to go out there and win this division.  With Minshew and a run D I think we got a real shot at the division.  Talking before we have even played a game is one of the dumbest things I have ever heard unless you are just a loser.  Some people just have that loser mentality i guess.  We finally may have our first franchise QB since Brunell and people want to tank lol
I’m not advocating tanking but it’s actually pretty easy to do.

You just put out inferior players. The players and coaches still play to win but they’re just not as talented. Sixers did it for years. Fins did it last season and ended up winning a couple games at the end costing them their #1 pick.

Also, a real shot at the division?! Dude. They’re by far the least talented team in the division with the worst QB in the division. Minshew may end up being good but at this moment, he’s the 4th best QB in the division. That doesn’t scream division winner.
Then thats not tanking, its just not being good enough.
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#46
(This post was last modified: 05-22-2020, 08:12 AM by Cleatwood.)

(05-22-2020, 07:13 AM)flgatorsandjags Wrote:
(05-21-2020, 09:39 AM)Cleatwood Wrote: I’m not advocating tanking but it’s actually pretty easy to do.

You just put out inferior players. The players and coaches still play to win but they’re just not as talented. Sixers did it for years. Fins did it last season and ended up winning a couple games at the end costing them their #1 pick.

Also, a real shot at the division?! Dude. They’re by far the least talented team in the division with the worst QB in the division. Minshew may end up being good but at this moment, he’s the 4th best QB in the division. That doesn’t scream division winner.
Then thats not tanking, its just not being good enough.
Well that’s because if you came right out and said you’re tanking, the league would have issue with it. 

Getting rid of your best players, obtaining future draft picks and playing inferior players is essentially tanking. Even if you don’t hang a banner that says “hey guys. We are tanking!”

(05-21-2020, 09:55 PM)JagFanFirst Wrote: The big knock against Caldwell has been his mismanagement of the cap - rewarding lesser talented players like Bortles and Lee over keeping A-Rob and potentially drafting Watson, Mahommes or Jackson to replace Bortles.  He's actually pretty good at drafting - he's put together three solid drafts in a row (IMHO). I'd be okay with keeping him around next season.

Marrone, I have no idea what to think. I still say it was he, not the refs, who cost us a chance to go to the Super Bowl against the Patriots.
Let someone else make the first round pick and let Caldwell handle the rest.

Joeckel, Bortles, Fowler, Fournette.... top 5 picks.
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#47

(05-22-2020, 08:11 AM)Cleatwood Wrote:
(05-22-2020, 07:13 AM)flgatorsandjags Wrote: Then thats not tanking, its just not being good enough.
Well that’s because if you came right out and said you’re tanking, the league would have issue with it. 

Getting rid of your best players, obtaining future draft picks and playing inferior players is essentially tanking. Even if you don’t hang a banner that says “hey guys. We are tanking!”

(05-21-2020, 09:55 PM)JagFanFirst Wrote: The big knock against Caldwell has been his mismanagement of the cap - rewarding lesser talented players like Bortles and Lee over keeping A-Rob and potentially drafting Watson, Mahommes or Jackson to replace Bortles.  He's actually pretty good at drafting - he's put together three solid drafts in a row (IMHO). I'd be okay with keeping him around next season.

Marrone, I have no idea what to think. I still say it was he, not the refs, who cost us a chance to go to the Super Bowl against the Patriots.
Let someone else make the first round pick and let Caldwell handle the rest.

Joeckel, Bortles, Fowler, Fournette.... top 5 picks.

To be fair, everyone thought Joeckle was the right pick and he was considered for the number one over all pick. Fowler is actually good, we just traded him away. Bortles unfortunately didn't work out but he is still at least a serviceable back up and is no where close to the biggest QB busts out there. Fournette is widely accepted as a Coughlin pick, and while that may or may not be true, we will never really know because Coughlin had the final say for that draft.
[Image: images?q=tbn:ANd9GcSIM9bZmkezB9B4qD2qAtT...IGQHCZIPuA]
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#48

(05-22-2020, 08:11 AM)Cleatwood Wrote:
(05-22-2020, 07:13 AM)flgatorsandjags Wrote: Then thats not tanking, its just not being good enough.
Well that’s because if you came right out and said you’re tanking, the league would have issue with it. 

Getting rid of your best players, obtaining future draft picks and playing inferior players is essentially tanking. Even if you don’t hang a banner that says “hey guys. We are tanking!”

(05-21-2020, 09:55 PM)JagFanFirst Wrote: The big knock against Caldwell has been his mismanagement of the cap - rewarding lesser talented players like Bortles and Lee over keeping A-Rob and potentially drafting Watson, Mahommes or Jackson to replace Bortles.  He's actually pretty good at drafting - he's put together three solid drafts in a row (IMHO). I'd be okay with keeping him around next season.

Marrone, I have no idea what to think. I still say it was he, not the refs, who cost us a chance to go to the Super Bowl against the Patriots.
Let someone else make the first round pick and let Caldwell handle the rest.

Joeckel, Bortles, Fowler, Fournette.... top 5 picks.

Regarding tanking: GMs can punt on a season in preparation for the coming seasons by shipping off players for picks. But coaches are going to play the best guys they have and players are going to play hard to win, every game.

Therefore, tanking isn't a real thing. GMs can maybe set a team up to not be as good in a particular year but the team will not lose on purpose (which is what tanking is)
The Phins ended up winning games because they played teams equally as bad as them roster-wise, like the Redskins.

Tanking isn't real in the NFL. It's just not feasible. I'll grant you that a GM who knows he has at least 2-3 years can definitely punt on a season, trade a bunch of guys, hoard cap space for a coming year, etc. But coaches and players will never want to lose, lose on purpose, or be okay with getting the first overall pick. Jobs, contracts, and pride all on the line for those guys, many of them on a year to year basis.
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#49

(05-21-2020, 01:47 PM)Cleatwood Wrote:
(05-21-2020, 01:05 PM)NYC4jags Wrote: Top 3?? 

I don't know about that. 

Hopefully the tinhorns let O'Brien continue controlling the roster and we never know Watson's true potential.
That’s why I said 3-8. I think the top can be assembled in some order of:

1. Mahomes
2. Wilson
3. Rodgers
4. Watson
5. Lamar
6. Brady 
7. Brees 
8. Stafford/Ryan

That's a pretty reasonable list.  For those who advocate tanking, I would ask, how many of those teams tanked to get those QBs?  And, how many of those QBs were drafted #1 overall?  Okay, Matt Stafford.  That's it.  So what did the Lions get out of that other than a top-10 QB?  A Super Bowl?  Not even close.  

Tanking has many problems, and one of them is that you have to build the worst team in the league to get that number one pick.  Having the worst team in the league is not exactly a springboard to the Super Bowl, even if you draft Trevor Lawrence.  Besides, when you put Trevor Lawrence on the worst team in the league, then you have to build a team around him, and that could take years if you start with the worst team in the league.  So if by some remote chance he isn't beaten to death playing for the worst team in the league, and he pans out as a great QB (not a given), by the time you have built a team around him, his rookie contract is up and he's asking for a $200 million contract.
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#50
(This post was last modified: 05-23-2020, 12:16 PM by Iason.)

(05-22-2020, 09:43 AM)The Real Marty Wrote:
(05-21-2020, 01:47 PM)Cleatwood Wrote: That’s why I said 3-8. I think the top can be assembled in some order of:

1. Mahomes
2. Wilson
3. Rodgers
4. Watson
5. Lamar
6. Brady 
7. Brees 
8. Stafford/Ryan

That's a pretty reasonable list.  For those who advocate tanking, I would ask, how many of those teams tanked to get those QBs?  And, how many of those QBs were drafted #1 overall?  Okay, Matt Stafford.  That's it.  So what did the Lions get out of that other than a top-10 QB?  A Super Bowl?  Not even close.  

Tanking has many problems, and one of them is that you have to build the worst team in the league to get that number one pick.  Having the worst team in the league is not exactly a springboard to the Super Bowl, even if you draft Trevor Lawrence.  Besides, when you put Trevor Lawrence on the worst team in the league, then you have to build a team around him, and that could take years if you start with the worst team in the league.  So if by some remote chance he isn't beaten to death playing for the worst team in the league, and he pans out as a great QB (not a given), by the time you have built a team around him, his rookie contract is up and he's asking for a $200 million contract.

None of those people on that list were as highly regarded as a prospect as Lawrence is coming out of college, so it makes sense that they weren't drafted first overall. The last person who was as highly regarded as Lawrence is, Andrew Luck, went first overall.
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#51

(05-23-2020, 12:15 PM)Iason Wrote:
(05-22-2020, 09:43 AM)The Real Marty Wrote: That's a pretty reasonable list.  For those who advocate tanking, I would ask, how many of those teams tanked to get those QBs?  And, how many of those QBs were drafted #1 overall?  Okay, Matt Stafford.  That's it.  So what did the Lions get out of that other than a top-10 QB?  A Super Bowl?  Not even close.  

Tanking has many problems, and one of them is that you have to build the worst team in the league to get that number one pick.  Having the worst team in the league is not exactly a springboard to the Super Bowl, even if you draft Trevor Lawrence.  Besides, when you put Trevor Lawrence on the worst team in the league, then you have to build a team around him, and that could take years if you start with the worst team in the league.  So if by some remote chance he isn't beaten to death playing for the worst team in the league, and he pans out as a great QB (not a given), by the time you have built a team around him, his rookie contract is up and he's asking for a $200 million contract.

None of those people on that list were as highly regarded as a prospect as Lawrence is coming out of college, so it makes sense that they weren't drafted first overall. The last person who was as highly regarded as Lawrence is,  Andrew Luck, went first overall.

If none of those people on that list were as highly regarded as a prospect as Lawrence is coming out of college, what does that tell you?  I know you're not saying Lawrence is going to be better than Mahomes, or Brady, or Brees.  Or a number of others on that list.  What it tells me is having the number one overall pick is way overrated.  Make a list of the best QBs in the league, and none of the top 7 or so is a number one overall pick.  Make a list of number one overall picks, and it is littered with failures and mediocrity.  

Why would anyone want to build the worst team in the league just so they can get a number one overall pick?  It's a stupid plan.  Teams don't get better by getting worse.  It doesn't work.
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#52

(05-24-2020, 07:02 AM)The Real Marty Wrote: If none of those people on that list were as highly regarded as a prospect as Lawrence is coming out of college, what does that tell you?  I know you're not saying Lawrence is going to be better than Mahomes, or Brady, or Brees.  Or a number of others on that list.  What it tells me is having the number one overall pick is way overrated.  Make a list of the best QBs in the league, and none of the top 7 or so is a number one overall pick.  Make a list of number one overall picks, and it is littered with failures and mediocrity.  

Why would anyone want to build the worst team in the league just so they can get a number one overall pick?  It's a stupid plan.  Teams don't get better by getting worse.  It doesn't work.

You're comparing the #1 pick vs every other pick in the draft combined. If you singled out the #1 pick vs any other pick it crushes them. Obviously.
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#53

(05-24-2020, 07:02 AM)The Real Marty Wrote:
(05-23-2020, 12:15 PM)Iason Wrote: None of those people on that list were as highly regarded as a prospect as Lawrence is coming out of college, so it makes sense that they weren't drafted first overall. The last person who was as highly regarded as Lawrence is,  Andrew Luck, went first overall.

If none of those people on that list were as highly regarded as a prospect as Lawrence is coming out of college, what does that tell you?  I know you're not saying Lawrence is going to be better than Mahomes, or Brady, or Brees.  Or a number of others on that list.  What it tells me is having the number one overall pick is way overrated.  Make a list of the best QBs in the league, and none of the top 7 or so is a number one overall pick.  Make a list of number one overall picks, and it is littered with failures and mediocrity.  

Why would anyone want to build the worst team in the league just so they can get a number one overall pick?  It's a stupid plan.  Teams don't get better by getting worse.  It doesn't work.

Every draft position is going to be littered with failures and mediocrity. Here is a graph that lists the number of all pro selections by draft position.

https://www.reddit.com/r/nfl/comments/68..._position/

1st overall comes in at 4th.
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#54

(05-24-2020, 10:59 AM)Iason Wrote:
(05-24-2020, 07:02 AM)The Real Marty Wrote: If none of those people on that list were as highly regarded as a prospect as Lawrence is coming out of college, what does that tell you?  I know you're not saying Lawrence is going to be better than Mahomes, or Brady, or Brees.  Or a number of others on that list.  What it tells me is having the number one overall pick is way overrated.  Make a list of the best QBs in the league, and none of the top 7 or so is a number one overall pick.  Make a list of number one overall picks, and it is littered with failures and mediocrity.  

Why would anyone want to build the worst team in the league just so they can get a number one overall pick?  It's a stupid plan.  Teams don't get better by getting worse.  It doesn't work.

Every draft position is going to be littered with failures and mediocrity. Here is a graph that lists the number of all pro selections by draft position.

https://www.reddit.com/r/nfl/comments/68..._position/

1st overall comes in at 4th.

So we should make sure that we draft Lawrence at 3, then, obviously.  #stats
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#55

(05-25-2020, 11:26 AM)JaguarKick Wrote:
(05-24-2020, 10:59 AM)Iason Wrote: Every draft position is going to be littered with failures and mediocrity. Here is a graph that lists the number of all pro selections by draft position.

https://www.reddit.com/r/nfl/comments/68..._position/

1st overall comes in at 4th.

So we should make sure that we draft Lawrence at 3, then, obviously.  #stats

It would be the most Jaguars thing in the world to pick 3rd in this upcoming draft.
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