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The Message from the Voters

#61
(This post was last modified: 11-06-2020, 03:37 PM by NeptuneBeachBum.)

(11-06-2020, 03:27 PM)TheO-LineMatters Wrote:
(11-06-2020, 02:15 PM)NeptuneBeachBum Wrote: He will serve his 4 years and move on.  Even if he doesn't, its better than the idiot that's been in there the last 4 years.  The senate will remain Republican... no damage will be done and there is a new opportunity to decrease the divisive political rhetoric from both extremes, that Trump constantly enflamed.

I am extremely skeptical that he fulfills a 4 year term. That's what worries. Biden wasn't the scary one. It's the wicked witch of the west that he chose as his running mate.

As long as the senate remains red and the balance of power is there, all will be fine.  And Wall Street currently agrees with that perspective.  Go look at your 401k today.

(11-06-2020, 03:30 PM)StroudCrowd1 Wrote:
(11-06-2020, 03:27 PM)TheO-LineMatters Wrote: I am extremely skeptical that he fulfills a 4 year term. That's what worries. Biden wasn't the scary one. It's the wicked witch of the west that he chose as his running mate.

Someone will primary her if this ends up being the case. There was always a civil war brewing in the democratic party no matter what happened in this election.

You may be right, but I don't see that happening.  But even if you are right, a Red senate will prevent any craziness.  

Trump was destructive and he had to go.  I am happy that the Republicans kept the senate though.  Best of both worlds; balance of power.
This is a results-oriented business.  There are no trophies or titles given for "moral victories" or for "winning the draft".  Our record with DC is 37-86.  6-10 is our 2nd best season in 8 years of Caldwell leadership.  These are the FACTS.
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#62
(This post was last modified: 11-06-2020, 07:15 PM by NewJagsCity.)

If Biden ends up being elected, one of his first big telling tests will be how he reacts to full scale riots over the next allegedly unjust shooting of an African American by the police. That will tell us a lot about who he's going to be listening to within his party.
"Remember Red, Hope is a good thing. Maybe the best of things. And no good thing ever dies."  - Andy Dufresne, The Shawshank Redemption
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#63

(11-06-2020, 07:14 PM)NewJagsCity Wrote: If Biden ends up being elected, one of his first big telling tests will be how he reacts to full scale riots over the next allegedly unjust shooting of an African American by the police.  That will tell us a lot about who he's going to be listening to within his party.

Like a normal president.  Condemning any unjust police violence, supporting peaceful protests, and condemning riots and looting.  Seems pretty obvious... but 45 couldn't figure it out.
This is a results-oriented business.  There are no trophies or titles given for "moral victories" or for "winning the draft".  Our record with DC is 37-86.  6-10 is our 2nd best season in 8 years of Caldwell leadership.  These are the FACTS.
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#64

(11-06-2020, 03:34 PM)NeptuneBeachBum Wrote:
(11-06-2020, 03:27 PM)TheO-LineMatters Wrote: I am extremely skeptical that he fulfills a 4 year term. That's what worries. Biden wasn't the scary one. It's the wicked witch of the west that he chose as his running mate.

As long as the senate remains red and the balance of power is there, all will be fine.  And Wall Street currently agrees with that perspective.  Go look at your 401k today.

(11-06-2020, 03:30 PM)StroudCrowd1 Wrote: Someone will primary her if this ends up being the case. There was always a civil war brewing in the democratic party no matter what happened in this election.

You may be right, but I don't see that happening.  But even if you are right, a Red senate will prevent any craziness.  

Trump was destructive and he had to go.  I am happy that the Republicans kept the senate though.  Best of both worlds; balance of power.


The Senate majority isn't even a lock yet.
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#65

Don’t ya just love when someone shows up to talk smack after the “game” has been played? Laughing
What in the Wide Wide World of Sports is agoin' on here???
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#66

(11-06-2020, 07:45 PM)Bchbunnie4 Wrote: Don’t ya just love when someone shows up to talk smack after the “game” has been played? Laughing

If there was ever a time where the losers had it coming, this is it. 
I only say that because Trump and his supporters showed 0 sportsmanship while he was "up." 
So yes.
We will stomp.
It's only personal if you take it personal.
My fellow southpaw Mark Brunell will probably always be my favorite Jaguar.
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#67

(11-06-2020, 07:58 PM)mikesez Wrote:
(11-06-2020, 07:45 PM)Bchbunnie4 Wrote: Don’t ya just love when someone shows up to talk smack after the “game” has been played? Laughing

If there was ever a time where the losers had it coming, this is it. 
I only say that because Trump and his supporters showed 0 sportsmanship while he was "up." 
So yes.
We will stomp.
It's only personal if you take it personal.

You won't find us rioting, looting, or screaming to the sky for a future meme. That's sportsmanship these days.
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#68

(11-06-2020, 08:20 PM)StroudCrowd1 Wrote:
(11-06-2020, 07:58 PM)mikesez Wrote: If there was ever a time where the losers had it coming, this is it. 
I only say that because Trump and his supporters showed 0 sportsmanship while he was "up." 
So yes.
We will stomp.
It's only personal if you take it personal.

You won't find us rioting, looting, or screaming to the sky for a future meme. That's sportsmanship these days.

I don't define my reality based on something I saw in a Twitter meme or some edited video on Fox news.

I define it based on what I see from real people that I have real things in common with, like my real life friends, or users like you on a message board.  You have certainly given me an impression of trump supporters over the years that we've interacted. I gained that from you, not from some meme that some Twitter influencer showed me, and certainly not from the mainstream media.

I knew one or two people who were upset enough to take a day off of work when Trump won.

I will base my perceptions of liberals on them, not on some random woman in Time square yelling at the big screen TV.

You should do likewise.
My fellow southpaw Mark Brunell will probably always be my favorite Jaguar.
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#69

(11-06-2020, 07:58 PM)mikesez Wrote:
(11-06-2020, 07:45 PM)Bchbunnie4 Wrote: Don’t ya just love when someone shows up to talk smack after the “game” has been played? Laughing

If there was ever a time where the losers had it coming, this is it. 
I only say that because Trump and his supporters showed 0 sportsmanship while he was "up." 
So yes.
We will stomp.
It's only personal if you take it personal.
Naw, that has nothing to do with it. I just have absolutely no respect for anyone that shows up after the fact to act all big and bad after hiding and staying quiet before [BLEEP] goes down. Same thing goes for the shmucks that come on the board to gloat after they beat us but wouldn’t dare come on before the game because they don’t know how it’s going to turn out. People who do that kind of stuff are completely chicken [BLEEP] individuals.
What in the Wide Wide World of Sports is agoin' on here???
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#70

[Image: 123988552_382126702937917_69086270255669...e=5FCC5D3F]
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#71

(11-07-2020, 08:02 AM)Lucky2Last Wrote: [Image: 123988552_382126702937917_69086270255669...e=5FCC5D3F]

Interesting chart.  If you are alleging some sort of skullduggery, or fraud, I would remind you that Georgia has a Republican governor and a Republican Secretary of State who is running that election.  

I would also note that since she lost the governor's race in 2018, Stacy Abrams has been organizing and registering Democrats and African Americans in particular, and if Georgia flips to Biden, as it looks like it will, she deserves a large part of the credit.
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#72
(This post was last modified: 11-07-2020, 08:22 AM by Lucky2Last.)

These are the numbers I ran with a friend the other day. Someone else put them in graph form. This is the overlap from 2016 to 2020. The results from Gwinnett, Fulton, Cobb, and DeKalb seem unnatural. This same pattern is found only in certain swing states and only in certain blue counties. I'm not saying that those numbers are impossible. It's certainly possible. It's just unlikely. There are several other blue counties in that list that didn't have those same kinds of massive spikes. We've ran comparisons for the red swing states and again for solid blue states and haven't found similar spikes. However, to be fair, we haven't looked at the results from LA or Chicago, which might be more comparable. I'll go do that now.

I'd also like to run a comparison on voter increases across county. I'm curious how many showed increases for both candidates.
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#73
(This post was last modified: 11-07-2020, 08:39 AM by Lucky2Last.)

Just looked at Chicago. The other major cities don't have complete counts yet, so I can't really compare. As of right now, Cook county (Chicago), has 200k less votes for Biden than Clinton, but I expect those numbers to go up. I don't believe you'll get anywhere near a 25% increase though, at this rate.

Edit: If I take the remaining votes in Chicago, and give them to Joe at the same percentage he's currently at in Cook (73%), The best he can increase from 2016 is 9%, which is inline with this year's election numbers. These 46% jumps are only found in these swing state counties. They are abnormal when you compare them to other blue cities that weren't in play. It's very difficult to increase turn-out by that much. Not impossible, but very unlikely.
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#74

(11-06-2020, 07:14 PM)NewJagsCity Wrote: If Biden ends up being elected, one of his first big telling tests will be how he reacts to full scale riots over the next allegedly unjust shooting of an African American by the police.  That will tell us a lot about who he's going to be listening to within his party.

What riots? 

Truml started polling in the mid 30s with blacks, the mid 40s with black men.  The dems couldn't win the conversation on jobs or wages.  Trump was taking criminal justice reform.  The left is designed on a business model of 90 plus in the black community.  They needed another issue.  Enter LeBron James Blm and burning buildings.   

Conservative black YouTube imfluencees that drove the initial surge in support turned and adopted the racist police narrative.  We never recovered.  92 to 6 in ga.  

That was an extension of the Biden campaign.  The chaos then siphoned off some support from Trump and a swath of white suburbanites bought into the white guilt narrative.  

They will want to portray Biden as a uniter so you won't see the full scale commercialized riots with a DEM in office.  Now if it does happen and its beyond the lefts control then you could see a wholesale rejection of the woke left from an electorate that gave them what they thought they wanted.
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#75

I don't think it's 92-6, dude. Not without help. There is going to be historic black voter turnout when this is done. But only in swing states, miraculously. I'm running the numbers now. You don't see that turnout in Chicago, NY, or LA. Just in Atlanta, Philly, Milwaukee, and Detroit. It's suspect. I am working on more charts now, because it's so abnormal. It's hard with the big blue states, though, because their counting is so behind. Also, I'd bet if I did the same thing with blacks, you'd find that black support is up in every place but Atlanta, Milwaukee, Philly, and Detroit. Trump gained support with Blacks nationally, so why wouldn't it show in those cities too? I don't know if I want to tackle that, though, as getting the data might be difficult. I could maybe just look at the major cities, but I couldn't do a national look like what we are doing now.
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#76

(11-07-2020, 09:01 AM)jj82284 Wrote:
(11-06-2020, 07:14 PM)NewJagsCity Wrote: If Biden ends up being elected, one of his first big telling tests will be how he reacts to full scale riots over the next allegedly unjust shooting of an African American by the police.  That will tell us a lot about who he's going to be listening to within his party.

What riots? 

Truml started polling in the mid 30s with blacks, the mid 40s with black men.  The dems couldn't win the conversation on jobs or wages.  Trump was taking criminal justice reform.  The left is designed on a business model of 90 plus in the black community.  They needed another issue.  Enter LeBron James Blm and burning buildings.   

Conservative black YouTube imfluencees that drove the initial surge in support turned and adopted the racist police narrative.  We never recovered.  92 to 6 in ga.  

That was an extension of the Biden campaign.  The chaos then siphoned off some support from Trump and a swath of white suburbanites bought into the white guilt narrative.  

They will want to portray Biden as a uniter so you won't see the full scale commercialized riots with a DEM in office.  Now if it does happen and its beyond the lefts control then you could see a wholesale rejection of the woke left from an electorate that gave them what they thought they wanted.

The extremely heavy black (and young people) turnout in Georgia in 2020 was driven by the 2018 Georgia governor's race.   Stacey Abrams thought/alleged that the race had been stolen from her, so she organized and went to work and registered hundreds of thousands of black voters and young voters.  Some say her organization is responsible for registering as many as 800,000 new voters.  And those newly registered voters voted.  And her organization also went to great pains to turn out Democratic voters who hadn't voted recently.  As Georgia (amazingly) flips to the Democrats, she becomes a rising star in the Democratic Party.  

By the way, the "woke left" has already been rejected based on the results of House and Senate races around the country.  Every Republican candidate for the House and the Senate tied his Democratic opponent to "defund the police," "the jobs-killing Green New Deal," "Medicare for All," and every other far left proposal that has come from the far left of the Democratic party.  Biden survived because he went to great pains over and over to disavow those positions.
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#77
(This post was last modified: 11-07-2020, 09:52 AM by Lucky2Last.)

I am willing to acknowledge that potential change in GA could be grassroots. It doesn't explain why a similar thing occurred around the major cities in PA, WI, and MI. I can't find the same occurrence in places that were already going to go blue, or even in slight leaning red states with heavily populated blue counties. You don't see it in Chicago. You don't see it in Cleveland. There's nothing even close to it in FL (who tightened up their voting regulations). There could be plausible explanations for it, but you would think that you'd see this repeated nationwide. You just don't really see it. Just a few counties in each swing state.

Trump has also had spikes, so it's not impossible. The highest I can find for Trump is 34%, and I, if I recall, it was only one county in all that I've looked at. He had pretty consistent bumps across the board. Biden had 46% in a couple counties in each swing state, then nothing like it anywhere else. He underperformed Hillary in several blue states. It's just odd.
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#78

(11-07-2020, 09:48 AM)Lucky2Last Wrote: I am willing to acknowledge that potential change in GA could be grassroots. It doesn't explain why a similar thing occurred around the major cities in PA, WI, and MI. I can't find the same occurrence in places that were already going to go blue, or even in slight leaning red states with heavily populated blue counties. You don't see it in Chicago. You don't see it in Cleveland. There's nothing even close to it in FL (who tightened up their voting regulations).  There could be plausible explanations for it, but you would think that you'd see this repeated nationwide. You just don't really see it. Just a few counties in each swing state.

Trump has also had spikes, so it's not impossible. The highest I can find for Trump is 34%, and I, if I recall, it was only one county in all that I've looked at. He had pretty consistent bumps across the board. Biden had 46% in a couple counties in each swing state, then nothing like it anywhere else. He underperformed Hillary in several blue states. It's just odd.

Clinton lost the election due to losing certain states that she expected to win.  So, wouldn't you expect the Democratic Party to go into those states, go to where their voters are, which is in the big cities, and go to work to get people registered and turned out to vote?  

That's how they turned things around from 2016.  They got their voters out in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin.  And their voters are in the big cities.
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#79
(This post was last modified: 11-07-2020, 10:39 AM by NeptuneBeachBum.)

(11-07-2020, 08:18 AM)Lucky2Last Wrote: These are the numbers I ran with a friend the other day. Someone else put them in graph form. This is the overlap from 2016 to 2020. The results from Gwinnett, Fulton, Cobb, and DeKalb seem unnatural. This same pattern is found only in certain swing states and only in certain blue counties. I'm not saying that those numbers are impossible. It's certainly possible. It's just unlikely. There are several other blue counties  in that list that didn't have those same kinds of massive spikes. We've ran comparisons for the red swing states and again for solid blue states and haven't found similar spikes. However, to be fair, we haven't looked at the results from LA or Chicago, which might be more comparable. I'll go do that now.

I'd also like to run a comparison on voter increases across county. I'm curious how many showed increases for both candidates.

Dude... any simple Google search explains this; its literally been all over the news:

https://news.yahoo.com/georgia-election-...54054.html

Trump is the least popular and most divisive president in American history... not a shock that grassroots efforts, combined with his general hatred, drove up Democrat voters in swing states. You are doing a ton of work for nothing... its already been done, and the reasons are obvious. Stacey Abrams in Georgia is the main reason.
This is a results-oriented business.  There are no trophies or titles given for "moral victories" or for "winning the draft".  Our record with DC is 37-86.  6-10 is our 2nd best season in 8 years of Caldwell leadership.  These are the FACTS.
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#80

It's not just GA. I have been telling you that. It's an abnormality in GA, PA, WI, and MI. It didn't drive it up every where. You would think you would see national trends. You don't. This is the point I am making. You see some national trends with Biden. You see some trends with Trump. Both did better than 2016. Biden did have a larger turnout than Hillary. However, there are like 8 counties that are statistical anomalies. Biden won the states that had them and you don't find them anywhere else. Not in blue states. Not in red states with blue counties. This is the point I am making.
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