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What’s next for Watson?

#41

Id asked to be traded to if your new head coach came from last place ranked passing offense
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#42

(01-28-2021, 01:11 PM)D6 Wrote:
(01-25-2021, 01:24 PM)Tank Commander Wrote: It doesn't add up though.  He says he wants to play for a winning culture.
But as you said though, if he is traded for a boat load of picks and players, then the team he will go to will have little talent.

I think he is trying to copy what fellow Houston, James Harden did and force a trade to a winning/super team.
However the value of any player in football is much smaller than in the NBA where you only have a 15 man roster and only 5 players on the court at any given time.

Watson really overestimates his impact and ability.

James Harden is a very good illustration of the impact of a Superstar NBA player being greater than the impact of any player in an NFL game. In the last two Brooklyn Nets games, vs. Miami and last night at Atlanta, Harden's differential all around play was an enormous reason for Brooklyn coming back to win. 

Taking the NBA out of the discussion, I believe that an NFL QB has the greatest impact in any other major team sport in North America. Even more than a dominant Starting Pitcher because the latter isn't available to pitch most games.  An NHL goalie or a Closer Relief Pitcher are also difference makers. But I don't think to the extent that an elite QB can be. 

 When OF Barry Bonds was at or near his MLB peak, I think he was the closest in many decades to having the impact in a non NBA team sport in North America to an elite NFL QB.

Disagree on the QB impact.
It is certainly the most in football but it's still one out of 22 position players (and that doesn't even include special teams or kickers).
The max a QB is in the game is about 50%. (of course this will depend on the game and opponent and time of possession)
So the minimum impact of a QB is 9% when they are on the field and 4.5% (when defense is include).  Even less if special teams/kickers are included)

Now take a sport like Hockey which has 6 players on the floor at anyone time. A dominant goalie (who plays the entire game) is worth at the minimum 16% of a teams game.

Baseball the impact of Bonds is not that great either.  1 of 9 offensive player and 1/2 is pitching (we will discount defensive play as though that has an impact it won't be needed much if you have an ace pitcher).  So a field player is 50%, pitchers 50%.  And a individual field player is 11% of the field players and 5.5% of the total impact on the game when pitching is included.

So using those 3 sports:
NHL: dominant goalie is minimum 16% impact
MLB: dominant field position is minimum 5.5% impact
QB: dominant QB is minimum 4.5% impact.

Even if we double the number for the QB, it's still much less than a dominant NHL goalie.
And this doesn't include the fact that the injury rate for a QB is much higher than a goalie or a baseball player which means you wouldn't want to put all your eggs in the QB basket at the expense of the other positions.

This is why football is probably the ultimate team game, and why you can win a Super Bowl with an average/non HOF QB: Trent Dilfer, Joe Flacco, Doug Williams, Mark Rypien, Phil Sims, Jeff Hosstetler, Brad Johnson and Playoff Nick Foles.

It would almost be unthinkable for an NBA team to win a championship with an average/non HOF player. The closest you can probably come to is Toronto and Kawahi Leonard or Detroit and Ben Wallace (who still will probably make the HOF)
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#43

I agree the Barry Bonds analogy was pretty bad. From a baseball perspective, I'd have to say Randy Johnson starting in a 4 man rotation was one of the most impactful -- especially in the playoffs when he'd pitch 2 games in a 5 game series and 3 games in a 7 game series.
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#44

(01-28-2021, 06:24 PM)HURRICANE!!! Wrote: I agree the Barry Bonds analogy was pretty bad.  From a baseball perspective, I'd have to say Randy Johnson starting in a 4 man rotation was one of the most impactful -- especially in the playoffs when he'd pitch 2 games in a 5 game series and 3 games in a 7 game series.

Barry Bonds was intentionally walked with the bases empty 41 times in his MLB career and even once with the bases loaded.  This is a reflection of immense impact. With most pitchers being ultra cautious when Bonds was At Bat,  the opposing team was put at a disadvantage more than half the time in 4 seasons and well over 40 % in the vast majority of other seasons.  Bonds'  On Base % numbers were off the charts.

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#45

It will be interesting to see where he goes and what the cost will be. I gotta give the edge to the Jets. They are the only QB needy team with a lot of ammunition to make such a deal that it won't totally cripple their future.
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#46

(01-28-2021, 06:52 PM)D6 Wrote:
(01-28-2021, 06:24 PM)HURRICANE!!! Wrote: I agree the Barry Bonds analogy was pretty bad.  From a baseball perspective, I'd have to say Randy Johnson starting in a 4 man rotation was one of the most impactful -- especially in the playoffs when he'd pitch 2 games in a 5 game series and 3 games in a 7 game series.

Barry Bonds was intentionally walked with the bases empty 41 times in his MLB career and even once with the bases loaded.  This is a reflection of immense impact. With most pitchers being ultra cautious when Bonds was At Bat,  the opposing team was put at a disadvantage more than half the time in 4 seasons and well over 40 % in the vast majority of other seasons.  Bonds'  On Base % numbers were off the charts.


And even with that dominance, did Barry Bonds ever win a title?

And then the Giants go on to win 3 tittles in 6 years without Bonds.
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#47

(01-28-2021, 09:56 PM)Tank Commander Wrote:
(01-28-2021, 06:52 PM)D6 Wrote: Barry Bonds was intentionally walked with the bases empty 41 times in his MLB career and even once with the bases loaded.  This is a reflection of immense impact. With most pitchers being ultra cautious when Bonds was At Bat,  the opposing team was put at a disadvantage more than half the time in 4 seasons and well over 40 % in the vast majority of other seasons.  Bonds'  On Base % numbers were off the charts.


And even with that dominance, did Barry Bonds ever win a title?

And then the Giants go on to win 3 tittles in 6 years without Bonds.

Baseball is a team sport. Barry Bonds led the way in the SF Giants building a 5-0 lead in Game 6 of the 2002 World Series.  The Giants couldn't get 6 outs to close out the series against the Angels.  Much like the Pirates in 1992, when Barry Bonds was still with them, couldn't get 3 outs to close out the Braves in Game 7, after leading 2-0 going into the bottom of the 9th. 

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#48

(01-28-2021, 08:22 PM)TheO-LineMatters Wrote: It will be interesting to see where he goes and what the cost will be. I gotta give the edge to the Jets. They are the only QB needy team with a lot of ammunition to make such a deal that it won't totally cripple their future.

The Jets indeed have the ammo and Deshaun Watson reportedly wants to play for them.  The Texans can go long way in picking up the pieces of their current situation if the Jets pay a premium trade price for Watson.


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#49

(01-28-2021, 10:19 PM)D6 Wrote:
(01-28-2021, 08:22 PM)TheO-LineMatters Wrote: It will be interesting to see where he goes and what the cost will be. I gotta give the edge to the Jets. They are the only QB needy team with a lot of ammunition to make such a deal that it won't totally cripple their future.

The Jets indeed have the ammo and Deshaun Watson reportedly wants to play for them.  The Texans can go long way in picking up the pieces of their current situation if the Jets pay a premium trade price for Watson.

I could see the Jets be foolish enough to mortgage the farm for a below average sized QB, who runs a 4.68 40, hasn't won at the NFL level, and already has suffered a major injury.  They did hire Adam Gase after all.
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#50

(01-28-2021, 01:55 PM)Jagsfan32277 Wrote: Id asked to be traded to if your new head coach came from last place ranked passing offense

Mike McCarthy says "hi"

But I don't think David Culley will be a good hire.
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#51

(01-29-2021, 09:49 AM)Tank Commander Wrote:
(01-28-2021, 10:19 PM)D6 Wrote: The Jets indeed have the ammo and Deshaun Watson reportedly wants to play for them.  The Texans can go long way in picking up the pieces of their current situation if the Jets pay a premium trade price for Watson.

I could see the Jets be foolish enough to mortgage the farm for a below average sized QB, who runs a 4.68 40, hasn't won at the NFL level, and already has suffered a major injury.  They did hire Adam Gase after all.

It comes down to the Jets assessment of Deshaun Watson. If the Jets rate Watson as a top 5 NFL QB moving forward and that the Dolphins appear on the verge of trading for Watson,  they might even be willing to give the Texans pick # 2 AND Quinnen Williams as the foundation of a trade for Watson.

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#52

This might turn into a "Texas Standoff." The Texans are now saying they aren't going to trade him. They do have him under contract, but he also might decide to hold out, if he really doesn't want to be there. If he follows what Yannick Ngakoue did here, he could always start bashing the team owner on Twitter. That might get him a ticket out of town.
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#53
(This post was last modified: 01-29-2021, 08:10 PM by JagFan81.)

Not sure if this has been said already but I cant help but feel this is a Player vs Team issue that may change the NFL. You see in the NBA and MLB that players have a lot of power and has swayed more their way in recent years. The NFL is still a bit more old school in the teams favour but situations like LeVeon Bell and Ramsey, you see players being able to force their way out.

Watson is probably the most high profile so far and with the no trade clause it looks settled already but if the only option players think available are being disruptive and just a pain then thats what they will do.

I cant fault Watson for wanting out. Find the best deal you can and let him go.
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#54

(01-29-2021, 08:09 PM)JagFan81 Wrote: Not sure if this has been said already but I cant help but feel this is a Player vs Team issue that may change the NFL. You see in the NBA and MLB that players have a lot of power and has swayed more their way in recent years. The NFL is still a bit more old school in the teams favour but situations like LeVeon Bell and Ramsey, you see players being able to force their way out.

Watson is probably the most high profile so far and with the no trade clause it looks settled already but if the only option players think available are being disruptive and just a pain then thats what they will do.

I cant fault Watson for wanting out. Find the best deal you can and let him go.


I think teams are going to be weary of a guy who doesn't honor his huge contract and is being disruptive and a problem child.
Especially at a leadership position like QB.
Any team that trades the farm for him will be a fool.
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#55

(01-31-2021, 10:47 AM)Tank Commander Wrote:
(01-29-2021, 08:09 PM)JagFan81 Wrote: Not sure if this has been said already but I cant help but feel this is a Player vs Team issue that may change the NFL. You see in the NBA and MLB that players have a lot of power and has swayed more their way in recent years. The NFL is still a bit more old school in the teams favour but situations like LeVeon Bell and Ramsey, you see players being able to force their way out.

Watson is probably the most high profile so far and with the no trade clause it looks settled already but if the only option players think available are being disruptive and just a pain then thats what they will do.

I cant fault Watson for wanting out. Find the best deal you can and let him go.


I think teams are going to be weary of a guy who doesn't honor his huge contract and is being disruptive and a problem child.
Especially at a leadership position like QB.
Any team that trades the farm for him will be a fool.

Most teams are run by fools. You don't have to look that far to find one of them. 

I don't know about Watson and I sure don't want to jinx it but I remember watching the first Texans game we played this season and realizing that Watson was the first QB this season that seemed human against the Jags D. He still ended up with good stats but IMO he failed the eye test that day. 

I actually wonder about his stats and I'm sure all you remember another QB that had great stats. It's easy when you get to play lots of garbage time...
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#56

(01-31-2021, 12:50 PM)CanDoBetter Wrote:
(01-31-2021, 10:47 AM)Tank Commander Wrote: I think teams are going to be weary of a guy who doesn't honor his huge contract and is being disruptive and a problem child.
Especially at a leadership position like QB.
Any team that trades the farm for him will be a fool.

Most teams are run by fools. You don't have to look that far to find one of them. 

I don't know about Watson and I sure don't want to jinx it but I remember watching the first Texans game we played this season and realizing that Watson was the first QB this season that seemed human against the Jags D. He still ended up with good stats but IMO he failed the eye test that day. 

I actually wonder about his stats and I'm sure all you remember another QB that had great stats. It's easy when you get to play lots of garbage time...

yeah, the easiest thing to do is pad stats as a QB when you have a horrible team.  Because once you are down by alot the other teams will just give you yardage and scores at they play prevent.
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#57

I hope the Texans management doesn't give in and trade him.
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#58

So I just read an article stating Texans demands are two firsts, two seconds and two young starters on the D. I don’t know how genuine that is obviously but if that were to be true then Watson is a Jet come the new season. They could do that trade and keep picks for this year and next year. No brainier for them.
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#59

(02-01-2021, 07:42 AM)BristolianJaguar Wrote: So I just read an article stating Texans demands are two firsts, two seconds and two young starters on the D. I don’t know how genuine that is obviously but if that were to be true then Watson is a Jet come the new season. They could do that trade and keep picks for this year and next year. No brainier for them.


Lol.  Delusional Texans.  If any team does that trade, they are dooming their franchise for the next 7 years.
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#60
(This post was last modified: 02-01-2021, 10:37 AM by TheO-LineMatters.)

(01-31-2021, 09:17 PM)flgatorsandjags Wrote: I hope the Texans management doesn't give in and trade him.

What do they do if he threatens to retire? Some people would do that. If I didn't want to be there and believed the team was falling down around me, I'd walk away. He's already made millions. Maybe he's one of those people where money is secondary to happiness. I walked out of a good job, because they screwed me over. They thought I was joking and I didn't blink. It took a while, but I found an even better job. If he announces that he's retiring, the Texans will either do one of two things. They will either do nothing and come away completely screwed with absolutely no compensation or they get in touch with his agent and convince him to play as long as they trade him for a boatload of compensation, so they can rebuild. 

The second option is the smart move, but we are talking about the Texans, so they'll probably screw this up as well. In any case, Watson has wiped all signs of the Texans off his social media and he reportedly isn't answering any calls from the team. He seems like his mind is made up. Personally, I don't blame him. They had a pretty good team until O'Brien blew it all up and management just kept on making blunders. Without Watson, they are completely talentless other than Laremy Tunsil and J.J. Watt (who is probably gonna get cut or traded.)
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