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Stock Market under President Biden


(09-15-2021, 07:29 PM)Lucky2Last Wrote: I don't know much about the economy, but the political side of me believes there is no way the elites don't crash crypto currency sometime in the near future. I think it is where we will ultimately end up, but the same people that control the fed will find a way to guarantee they are on the top floor of whatever pyramid scheme they set up next. All you suckers that are guessing are going to eat your lunch. That's my completely uninformed opinion.

The feds don't control it, so you are guaranteed they will try to do something as they want their own crypto to be the only one.
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(09-15-2021, 04:30 PM)StroudCrowd1 Wrote:
(09-15-2021, 04:28 PM)Senor Fantastico Wrote: Keeping an eye on CPNG.

Bought that months ago in my motley fool "fun" account.

(09-15-2021, 04:27 PM)KingIngram052787 Wrote: It's interesting, for sure, but the information I get from the CIO at UBS seems to believe the S&P will hit 5,000 by the end of 2022.  Now, that doesn't mean there won't be a lot of volatility say later this year or when the Dem tax package gets passed, or that individual stocks won't take huge hits, but overall, professionals seem to see the market continuing to rise through end of next year.

I'm just going to let it ride, however, I'm in my 30s, so for me, it doesn't really matter as much.

I don't think any extreme dem policy will get passed as long as Joe Manchin has a pulse.

Ummm well, if it ends up holding at $30, average it out.
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(This post was last modified: 09-15-2021, 11:02 PM by KingIngram052787. Edited 1 time in total.)

(09-15-2021, 05:52 PM)jagibelieve Wrote:
(09-15-2021, 04:27 PM)KingIngram052787 Wrote: It's interesting, for sure, but the information I get from the CIO at UBS seems to believe the S&P will hit 5,000 by the end of 2022.  Now, that doesn't mean there won't be a lot of volatility say later this year or when the Dem tax package gets passed, or that individual stocks won't take huge hits, but overall, professionals seem to see the market continuing to rise through end of next year.

I'm just going to let it ride, however, I'm in my 30s, so for me, it doesn't really matter as much.

For you being as young as you are I would suggest "letting it ride" because you will do better in the long term.  As far as "professionals" predicting the mark at the end of 2022, I wouldn't listen to that so much.  It may be right or it may be wrong, but nobody can really predict the future.

My best guess... and it is a guess is that there is going to be a major correction coming soon.

My advice is if you are invested in a 401k or similar look for a split between stocks and bonds/money market types of holdings.  If/when there is a major correction, your holdings will take a major hit, but over time you will do so much better if you keep contributing.  That split is up to you.  Typically leaning towards stocks is a bit more aggressive yet more risk involved.  Leaning towards bonds is typically "safer" yet less yielding.

One final piece of advice that I would give you.  Don't try to "actively" manage your 401k.  Pick from the few funds available to you and stick with them.  Keep contributing.  Over time it's going to grow.  My wife started with pretty much nothing in 2006 and retired this year with a pretty nice nest egg even after the crash in 2008.

That's close to my approach.  Research I read somewhere, I'll try to find it and come back and link it if I can, says that the largest single factor in growing your investment accounts/wealth is how much and how often you contribute, not your rate of return on investment.

I have my 401k/IRA invested aggressively in mutual funds and ETFs that I just set and forget.  It's almost all equities though given my age since I won't be accessing that money for another 30ish years.

I have a separate brokerage account that I started when I was younger just having fun picking stocks.  I got lucky and picked Apple, it's not some life changing amount in Apple, but I used that account and things I learned to then invest in various ETFs.  I had too many at one point, but learned quickly that your advice above about not having too many is solid advice, so I rebalanced and now how mostly a few ETFs and just a couple individual stocks for fun.  One ETF in particular is an equity bond balanced fund; however, this portfolio is still pretty aggressive because I personally view it as another retirement account (even though it's not tax advantaged) because I don't anticipate needing access to the money for a long time.

The wife and I have a 3rd joint account that we have monthly recurring investments into ETFs.  It's more conservative than the others, roughly 70% equities and 30% bonds.  We have larger than normal cash holdings since we're thinking about either buying a new home soon and using our current as an investment property, or buying an investment property, but ultimately we don't necessarily need or want to access that money, but the time horizon might be in the next 10 years, so wanted to be more conservative to hold down the volatility slightly.

That's just my approach, and it seems to work for me.  Although, holding this cash as long as I did, I definitely missed a huge opportunity the last 1.5 years.  I still made a ton and got a bit more aggressive putting money in to take advantage, but man oh man, what I could've done.  But, ultimately, my long term goal is to buy another property, so didn't want to change my process.

(09-15-2021, 07:52 PM)p_rushing Wrote:
(09-15-2021, 07:29 PM)Lucky2Last Wrote: I don't know much about the economy, but the political side of me believes there is no way the elites don't crash crypto currency sometime in the near future. I think it is where we will ultimately end up, but the same people that control the fed will find a way to guarantee they are on the top floor of whatever pyramid scheme they set up next. All you suckers that are guessing are going to eat your lunch. That's my completely uninformed opinion.

The feds don't control it, so you are guaranteed they will try to do something as they want their own crypto to be the only one.

I agree, crypto regulation will be coming at some point.  It may crash it short term, but part of me thinks what if it "legitimizes" it and makes it potentially take off?

I personally have not yet gotten into the crypto mania. I don't invest in things which I don't fully understand.
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Futures don't look so hot. The tumble continues.
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(This post was last modified: 09-20-2021, 01:59 PM by HURRICANE!!!. Edited 1 time in total.)

Any other day I'd be alarmed at watching my $$ drop by 1.25% but the Teal Deal books came in today so the Earth's axis is rebalanced.

Dang, that Cathy Wood ETF (ARKK) is down 4.24% today and 6.69% YTD.  In comparison the SP500 is up 17.17% YTD (inclusive of todays drop)
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(09-20-2021, 01:57 PM)HURRICANE!!! Wrote: Any other day I'd be alarmed at watching my $$ drop by 1.25% but the Teal Deal books came in today so the Earth's axis is rebalanced.

Dang, that Cathy Wood ETF (ARKK) is down 4.24% today and 6.69% YTD.  In comparison the SP500 is up 17.17% YTD (inclusive of todays drop)

The lessons of the importance of time in the market > timing the market.
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(09-20-2021, 03:45 PM)KingIngram052787 Wrote:
(09-20-2021, 01:57 PM)HURRICANE!!! Wrote: Any other day I'd be alarmed at watching my $$ drop by 1.25% but the Teal Deal books came in today so the Earth's axis is rebalanced.

Dang, that Cathy Wood ETF (ARKK) is down 4.24% today and 6.69% YTD.  In comparison the SP500 is up 17.17% YTD (inclusive of todays drop)

The lessons of the importance of time in the market > timing the market.

Exactly.  The dip today isn't as big of a deal as some are making it.  As of matter of fact, this is probably a good buying opportunity for younger investors.


There are 10 kinds of people in this world.  Those who understand binary and those who don't.
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I just bought the dip at 3:40pm (SPY which is the SP500 ETF) --- you all probably saw the pop in the market at 3:45pm .... LOL Smile
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(09-20-2021, 03:57 PM)HURRICANE!!! Wrote: I just bought the dip at 3:40pm (SPY which is the SP500 ETF) --- you all probably saw the pop in the market at 3:45pm  .... LOL  Smile

You bought today's dip. Hopefully you do the same tomorrow to help your cost basis
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Is it a dip or is it a the beginning of correction or is it even that rare event, a crash? That's the question.

When asset values are like a house of cards, an earthquake will knock the whole thing down. So all it takes is an earthquake. Like, for example, a Chinese real estate developer with $300 billion of loans goes belly up, and the Chinese don't react fast enough.
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(09-20-2021, 05:36 PM)The Real Marty Wrote: Is it a dip or is it a the beginning of correction or is it even that rare event, a crash?  That's the question. 

When asset values are like a house of cards, an earthquake will knock the whole thing down.  So all it takes is an earthquake.  Like, for example, a Chinese real estate developer with $300 billion of loans goes belly up, and the Chinese don't react fast enough.

Exactly.  I am holding what I have right now with an eye on what the market does next.  If it heads south again tomorrow I may take some profits and wait it out.  I would by no means "sell out" at this point.  After all, the markets took roughly a 2% dip today.  With that being said the DOW is roughly about 5% down from the high.  If it gets to 10% (very possible) it's officially a bear market.

For younger investors or those with a 401k, I would continue to contribute/buy right now.  Regarding the market, what goes down will come back up.  Buying shares at a "discount" right now is probably not a bad thing.  Over time those shares will rack up some good money.

With that being said, many people don't understand what the failure of Evergrande (Chinese real estate developer) will do to the markets worldwide.  In addition to that, we are staring 1970's style inflation/stagnation in the face due to the current regime.


There are 10 kinds of people in this world.  Those who understand binary and those who don't.
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This is the real China virus
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(09-20-2021, 06:37 PM)captivating Wrote: This is the real China virus

Haha +1
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(This post was last modified: 09-21-2021, 01:59 PM by HURRICANE!!!. Edited 3 times in total.)

(09-20-2021, 04:11 PM)StroudCrowd1 Wrote:
(09-20-2021, 03:57 PM)HURRICANE!!! Wrote: I just bought the dip at 3:40pm (SPY which is the SP500 ETF) --- you all probably saw the pop in the market at 3:45pm  .... LOL  Smile

You bought today's dip. Hopefully you do the same tomorrow to help your cost basis

In all honesty that was a risk move but given the extreme increase in equity resulting from the housing market and stock market, these are minor risks playing with a small portion of the profits so no biggie.  Pete Najarian (CNBC) called it when he stated we'd have a Turnaround Tuesday.  That said, the analysts seem to be mixed between a S&P  bottom of 4100 or conversely topping out at 4600 to 4700 by the end of the year.

I may selloff today because I really don't like what I'm seeing as a whole.  This year has been and easy call up until a September so I'd generally be happy to call it a year if I decide to sit out the 4th quarter.

Update: Sold off at 10:15am.  Still holding a few cruise lines and airlines that i bought on the cheap + a couple of bitcoins that took a hit this week.  May take profits on one of those soon.  Sold off Bitcoin 2pm
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(09-10-2021, 01:33 PM)Senor Fantastico Wrote: Current hits:

PAVM +293%
CELH +340%
PRCH +115%
DMTK  +240%

Misses:

Fuse +1.8%
ARCC +.34%

Train left without me:

UPST +832% (Ouch!)

Son of a [BLEEP]!
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I didn't make any "knee jerk" reactions based on the news.  I am still holding steady on my investments and waiting for the direction of the market(s).  Meanwhile I'll collect some pretty good dividends next week.  Even if the market(s) fall lower in the near term, in the long run I'll still do pretty well.

As I have said before and I think TRM is on near the same page, trying to time the market and reacting on news is a fool's game.  A pull back and correction has been expected for quite some time.  This dip right now looks like a good buying opportunity and if you have a 401k, I would suggest contributing the max that you can.  Over time the market is only going to go up barring something catastrophic.  If I was buying individual stocks I would pay attention to the fundamentals and stay far away from industries like cruise lines and/or hotels (pretty much anything hospitality related).  They are losing money.  I would also stay away from bitcoin.  There is no real value in those (in my opinion).


There are 10 kinds of people in this world.  Those who understand binary and those who don't.
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(09-21-2021, 06:31 PM)jagibelieve Wrote: I didn't make any "knee jerk" reactions based on the news.  I am still holding steady on my investments and waiting for the direction of the market(s).  Meanwhile I'll collect some pretty good dividends next week.  Even if the market(s) fall lower in the near term, in the long run I'll still do pretty well.

As I have said before and I think TRM is on near the same page, trying to time the market and reacting on news is a fool's game.  A pull back and correction has been expected for quite some time.  This dip right now looks like a good buying opportunity and if you have a 401k, I would suggest contributing the max that you can.  Over time the market is only going to go up barring something catastrophic.  If I was buying individual stocks I would pay attention to the fundamentals and stay far away from industries like cruise lines and/or hotels (pretty much anything hospitality related).  They are losing money.  I would also stay away from bitcoin.  There is no real value in those (in my opinion).

I agree with most of this, but I think in the long-term, bitcoin as an investment is going to continue to rise in value over time.  I would not consider it like money as a way to buy/sell/barter for things, but rather an investment.
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(09-21-2021, 05:36 PM)Senor Fantastico Wrote:
(09-10-2021, 01:33 PM)Senor Fantastico Wrote: Train left without me:

UPST +832% (Ouch!)

Son of a [BLEEP]!

I almost just freaked out thinking that was UPS.   I was returning an Amazon package back in late January and the UPS line ran 9 deep.  Of those 9 people, 7 shipments were returns so I could only think how UPS's business has significantly increased not only as a result of online purchases but a significant portion of their shipments are related to returns.  At that time I could only think that I should invest in UPS which I now see is only up 16% this year.  LOL
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(09-22-2021, 09:18 AM)HURRICANE!!! Wrote:
(09-21-2021, 05:36 PM)Senor Fantastico Wrote: Son of a [BLEEP]!

I almost just freaked out thinking that was UPS.   I was returning an Amazon package back in late January and the UPS line ran 9 deep.  Of those 9 people, 7 shipments were returns so I could only think how UPS's business has significantly increased not only as a result of online purchases but a significant portion of their shipments are related to returns.  At that time I could only think that I should invest in UPS which I now see is only up 16% this year.  LOL

Their stock is much cheaper to get into than FDX and has nearly 100% the dividend yield. It's no IPS, but give me UPS all day long.
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(09-22-2021, 09:27 AM)StroudCrowd1 Wrote:
(09-22-2021, 09:18 AM)HURRICANE!!! Wrote: I almost just freaked out thinking that was UPS.   I was returning an Amazon package back in late January and the UPS line ran 9 deep.  Of those 9 people, 7 shipments were returns so I could only think how UPS's business has significantly increased not only as a result of online purchases but a significant portion of their shipments are related to returns.  At that time I could only think that I should invest in UPS which I now see is only up 16% this year.  LOL

Their stock is much cheaper to get into than FDX and has nearly 100% the dividend yield. It's no IPS, but give me UPS all day long.

Yep, FDX is getting crushed today (down 8.76% right now).  Peloton and Facebook getting hit today as well.
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