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Trade Up Hypothetical

#21

(02-02-2021, 03:42 PM)Upper Wrote: There are like 8 OTs in this class that I would 100% trust to protect Tlaw over Cam from day 1. Well, I should say over Cam or Jawaan cause a few of them should be RTs.
What’s best case scenario for the tackle position that could actually happen?

Trent Williams and Radunz?
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#22

(02-02-2021, 02:58 PM)TheO-LineMatters Wrote:
(02-02-2021, 02:23 PM)jaglou53 Wrote: I agree with those who would NOT trade up in this draft. The only position worth giving up high draft picks (top 3 rounds) is quarterback, which thankfully the Jaguars won't need. As far as some of the suggestions stated above, these are my reactions:

1. Take an offensive tackle with pick 25. I agree with this and like the possibilities mentioned by O-Line Matters. Darrisaw, Jenkins and Radunz would be my 3 favorites. After reading about Radunz, I have a gut feeling that he is an Urban Meyer type of player and will be the choice with Jenkins a very close second. Eichenberg lacks the athletic ability of the others so his upside is limited, although he would be the most ready to play right away.

2. Everybody seems to love Trent Williams as the number 1 free agent target. Due to his age (I know he was top rated OT last season) and very high price tag, I would pass on him.

3. I love the idea of taking Freirmuth with pick 33 (Bullseye). I'll even go a step further and add Jonnu Smith in free agency. We all know it takes rookie tight ends time to develop and there's nothing wrong with having 2 very good tight ends on the roster. Smith will not break the bank and his acquisition will weaken a division opponent.

4. The team does need to draft a cornerback no later than pick 65. However, they should pay Sidney Jones to remain with the team. He played at a high level when healthy and he can be signed at a very reasonable price due to his history of injuries.

5. The defensive line outlook is hardest to project due to not knowing the scheme they will be playing. It wouldn't shock me if they consider signing Leonard Williams since he is still young and can play in any scheme. He will be expensive, but would be a valuable addition to the defensive line.

6. In addition to signing Jonnu Smith and possibly Leonard Williams, I'd definitely go aggressively after one of the many safeties available- John Johnson or Marcus Williams are my favorites. The other free agent to target
would be Jaylen Samuel. He has improved each year, is still young and has an Urban connection. He'd also cost much less than Godwin, Golliday or AROB.

7. Finally, I'd put the Franchise tag on Cam Robinson. I know he's not Tony Boselli, but I'd trust him much more than a rookie left tackle. Who knows, Robinson may finally meet the high expectations the Jaguars had of him after drafting him in the 2nd round. If he continues to be mediocre, the rookie they draft at pick 25 can replace him at some point this season (once they are ready).

I wish I could say that, but I don't trust him at all and I trust Jawaan Taylor even less. What kills me is that I really wanted to draft Tristan Wirfs last season.

After looking at Robinson's PFF grades the past 3 seasons, I take back my desire to give him the Franchise tag. Your assessment of him is correct. I just hope the player they draft to replace him can step in right away.
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#23

(02-02-2021, 03:52 PM)Cleatwood Wrote:
(02-02-2021, 03:42 PM)Upper Wrote: There are like 8 OTs in this class that I would 100% trust to protect Tlaw over Cam from day 1. Well, I should say over Cam or Jawaan cause a few of them should be RTs.
What’s best case scenario for the tackle position that could actually happen?

Trent Williams and Radunz?

Mayfield and Jenkins are the two stud RTs in this class IMO so I'd say Trent and one of them. I'd be happy with Radunz in the 2nd round but I don't think I buy first round for him.
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#24

(02-02-2021, 09:46 PM)Upper Wrote:
(02-02-2021, 03:52 PM)Cleatwood Wrote: What’s best case scenario for the tackle position that could actually happen?

Trent Williams and Radunz?

Mayfield and Jenkins are the two stud RTs in this class IMO so I'd say Trent and one of them. I'd be happy with Radunz in the 2nd round but I don't think I buy first round for him.

I wouldn't just consider Jenkins a RT. He has spot started at LT for Oklahoma State and looked good, so he does have some experience at both positions. Mayfield is strictly a RT imo.
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#25

I don't want to derail the thread, but I do want to take on one assumption that is very common in the previous posts, and that is, that we need to replace Cam Robinson in order to improve our pass protection.

There are many ways to protect a passer other than shoring up the offensive line. The most obvious way is to stop telegraphing the fact that you are going to drop back to pass when you have the ball. And what is the most obvious way that we telegraph the fact that we are going to pass the ball? By being behind in games. Being behind takes you out of your game plan and forces you to get more aggressive on offense, and that means, the opposing defense can put in its pass rushers and go after the passer. Because they know you are going to have to pass more to catch up.

In that way, playing better defense is a great way to protect your quarterback. Keep the game close or even be ahead by playing better defense, and that opens up the playbook and you can call any play you want. Being able to play a balanced offense keeps the opposing defense off balance and keeps them from teeing off on your quarterback.

A second great way to protect your passer is to give him open receivers. Give him weapons that can get open so he can get the ball out of his hands quickly. A lot of quarterbacks are responsible for a lot of their own sacks because they hold the ball too long. And that can come from not having open receivers.

So in these ways, you protect your passer without having to spend pick #25 on an offensive tackle.

And that's why I would say, rather than focusing so much on OT with an early draft pick, we franchise tag Cam Robinson and draft the best player available at #25.

Sorry to go off topic like that, but a lot of you guys seem to be operating under the assumption that we have to draft an OT with an early pick, and we really don't.

That's just my opinion.
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#26

So we don't want to telegraph a pass play by getting more WRs open?

Interesting...
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#27

(02-03-2021, 07:44 AM)homebiscuit Wrote: So we don't want to telegraph a pass play by getting more WRs open?

Interesting...

No, no no.  

Pass plays are telegraphed/forced by being behind in games.  So a QB can be protected by improving your own defense.   You can unbalance your offense by having a bad defense.  

Getting WRs open is another/different way to protect your QB because it gets the ball out of the QB's hands quicker.  So you can protect your QB by getting better weapons around him.  

I am saying you can protect your QB by shoring up the entire team, not just the offensive line.
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#28
(This post was last modified: 02-03-2021, 08:35 AM by TheO-LineMatters.)

(02-03-2021, 07:24 AM)The Real Marty Wrote: I don't want to derail the thread, but I do want to take on one assumption that is very common in the previous posts, and that is, that we need to replace Cam Robinson in order to improve our pass protection.  

There are many ways to protect a passer other than shoring up the offensive line.  The most obvious way is to stop telegraphing the fact that you are going to drop back to pass when you have the ball.  And what is the most obvious way that we telegraph the fact that we are going to pass the ball?  By being behind in games.  Being behind takes you out of your game plan and forces you to get more aggressive on offense, and that means, the opposing defense can put in its pass rushers and go after the passer.  Because they know you are going to have to pass more to catch up.  

In that way, playing better defense is a great way to protect your quarterback.   Keep the game close or even be ahead by playing better defense, and that opens up the playbook and you can call any play you want.   Being able to play a balanced offense keeps the opposing defense off balance and keeps them from teeing off on your quarterback.  

A second great way to protect your passer is to give him open receivers.  Give him weapons that can get open so he can get the ball out of his hands quickly.  A lot of quarterbacks are responsible for a lot of their own sacks because they hold the ball too long.  And that can come from not having open receivers.  

So in these ways, you protect your passer without having to spend pick #25 on an offensive tackle.  

And that's why I would say, rather than focusing so much on OT with an early draft pick, we franchise tag Cam Robinson and draft the best player available at #25.  

Sorry to go off topic like that, but a lot of you guys seem to be operating under the assumption that we have to draft an OT with an early pick, and we really don't.  

That's just my opinion.

You're certainly entitled to your own opinion, but if you look at PFF's draft grades, both of our starting OT's are among the lowest ranked guys in the league. It just can't be play calling or bad play by the QB or receivers that are making them look bad. The truth is that Cam has been a disappointment from day 1 and he's failed to develop. I just don't see the sense in making him one of the top paid OT's in the NFL, if just for one year, when he's ranked among the worst. I don't trust either of our starting OT's whether we are trailing in the game or winning. Also, take into account that this is possibly the best OT class that we've seen in several years and imo, we'd be crazy not to draft one of them.
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#29

(02-02-2021, 11:24 AM)Bullseye Wrote:
(02-02-2021, 11:04 AM)flgatorsandjags Wrote: This, It all depends on who is there

So who would have to be there for you to make the move?

(02-02-2021, 09:35 AM)Mikey Wrote: Unfortunately, the philosophical portion of the question can't be answered until we know who's on the board.

That aside, I think that the math is going to be off for your deal. ATL is in just as dire straits as we are, from a roster perspective. They have a few blocks in place, but those blocks are getting older, and draft picks are likely to be a premium for them. Getting them to move off of 35 is probably going to take more than a 16-point differential in their favor. I don't even know if dropping 131 from the deal is enough to get them to move. That early in the draft, it's unlikely that trades are going to break even. And if we have to do a deal for say, 35 and 131 for our 45 and 65, the guy we take at 35 better be a fantastic value because we'd be losing out on a deal like that.

This is where the GMs earn their paychecks, that is for certain.

So who would have to be on the board in order for you to make that move?

Not sure they are quite in such dire straits as us.

They had huge leads in many of their games, only to bloqw those leads like they did in the Super Bowl.

But if you like, you could switch the hypothetical to Dallas' pick instead of Atlanta's.

Jerry Jones likes to pretend he's smart by trading down a bit.

I don't  have specific names in hand, haven't spent a lot of time on college ball this year, or looking at mocks to see where guys are fitting yet.

In a broad sense, it would have to be someone that had a clear first-round grade, somehow fell, and the drop-off in talent at that position after them is significant, i.e., not something we could wait till 45 (or 65) to get comparable value. The thing I keep stumbling over is that, if this hypothetical player is so good and we covet him that much, why did we pass on him two picks prior?

My point was more that yes, the possibility of a trade up is there; but, that early in the order, if you are that committed to a guy, you're probably going to end up losing more on the deal, at least where the pick value is concerned.
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#30
(This post was last modified: 02-03-2021, 09:30 AM by Mikey.)

(02-02-2021, 03:52 PM)Cleatwood Wrote:
(02-02-2021, 03:42 PM)Upper Wrote: There are like 8 OTs in this class that I would 100% trust to protect Tlaw over Cam from day 1. Well, I should say over Cam or Jawaan cause a few of them should be RTs.
What’s best case scenario for the tackle position that could actually happen?

Trent Williams and Radunz?

I might say replace Trent Williams with Orlando Brown, Jr. - give me the young guy with upside. (assuming the rumors are true that he won't stay with the Ravens)

(02-03-2021, 08:33 AM)TheO-LineMatters Wrote: You're certainly entitled to your own opinion, but if you look at PFF's draft grades, both of our starting OT's are among the lowest ranked guys in the league. It just can't be play calling or bad play by the QB or receivers that are making them look bad. The truth is that Cam has been a disappointment from day 1 and he's failed to develop. I just don't see the sense in making him one of the top paid OT's in the NFL, if just for one year, when he's ranked among the worst. I don't trust either of our starting OT's whether we are trailing in the game or winning. Also, take into account that this is possibly the best OT class that we've seen in several years and imo, we'd be crazy not to draft one of them.

Interested how you would feel about signing him to a middling deal and letting him and Taylor duke it out for the RT spot.

I think we miscast him as an LT from day one.
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#31
(This post was last modified: 02-03-2021, 10:13 AM by TheO-LineMatters.)

(02-03-2021, 09:25 AM)Mikey Wrote:
(02-02-2021, 03:52 PM)Cleatwood Wrote: What’s best case scenario for the tackle position that could actually happen?

Trent Williams and Radunz?

I might say replace Trent Williams with Orlando Brown, Jr. - give me the young guy with upside. (assuming the rumors are true that he won't stay with the Ravens)

(02-03-2021, 08:33 AM)TheO-LineMatters Wrote: You're certainly entitled to your own opinion, but if you look at PFF's draft grades, both of our starting OT's are among the lowest ranked guys in the league. It just can't be play calling or bad play by the QB or receivers that are making them look bad. The truth is that Cam has been a disappointment from day 1 and he's failed to develop. I just don't see the sense in making him one of the top paid OT's in the NFL, if just for one year, when he's ranked among the worst. I don't trust either of our starting OT's whether we are trailing in the game or winning. Also, take into account that this is possibly the best OT class that we've seen in several years and imo, we'd be crazy not to draft one of them.

Interested how you would feel about signing him to a middling deal and letting him and Taylor duke it out for the RT spot.

I think we miscast him as an LT from day one.

The problem with Brown is that he is signed with the Ravens through 2021, so we'd have to trade for him and they would probably want quite a bit for him. With Williams, we lose no draft picks if we sign him.

I agree 100%. If we did that, I have no doubt Robinson would beat out Taylor, but he still may not be that great.
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#32

(02-03-2021, 07:24 AM)The Real Marty Wrote: Sorry to go off topic like that, but a lot of you guys seem to be operating under the assumption that we have to draft an OT with an early pick, and we really don't.

That's just my opinion.

There is some nuance that can be added to the pressures/blown blocks/sacks allowed stats, but Cam has been putrid in them for all 3 of his healthy seasons. The eye test also does not show a stud pass blocker. It shows a guy with extremely heavy feet that does ok with bad or big rushers, but gets abused by good and speed rushers.

There is zero chance that I am entrusting Cam to protect the new face of the franchise. But I fear and expect the team will think otherwise.
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#33
(This post was last modified: 02-04-2021, 04:41 PM by flgatorsandjags.)

(02-03-2021, 10:00 PM)Upper Wrote:
(02-03-2021, 07:24 AM)The Real Marty Wrote: Sorry to go off topic like that, but a lot of you guys seem to be operating under the assumption that we have to draft an OT with an early pick, and we really don't.  

That's just my opinion.

There is some nuance that can be added to the pressures/blown blocks/sacks allowed stats, but Cam has been putrid in them for all 3 of his healthy seasons. The eye test also does not show a stud pass blocker. It shows a guy with extremely heavy feet that does ok with bad or big rushers, but gets abused by good and speed rushers.

There is zero chance that I am entrusting Cam to protect the new face of the franchise. But I fear and expect the team will think otherwise.

I have more faith in Cam than putting a lot of these rookies out there. I'd either franchise Cam or sign a vet LT regardless than take BPA, if the value is there take the tackle but don't reach for a tackle because you didn't resign Cam or get one in FA
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#34

There will be an OT in the top tier of players available at 25. We're not going to have to sacrifice overall value to replace Cam in the draft if FA doesn't work out.
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#35

(02-03-2021, 08:00 AM)The Real Marty Wrote:
(02-03-2021, 07:44 AM)homebiscuit Wrote: So we don't want to telegraph a pass play by getting more WRs open?

Interesting...

No, no no.  

Pass plays are telegraphed/forced by being behind in games.  So a QB can be protected by improving your own defense.   You can unbalance your offense by having a bad defense.  

Getting WRs open is another/different way to protect your QB because it gets the ball out of the QB's hands quicker.  So you can protect your QB by getting better weapons around him.  

I am saying you can protect your QB by shoring up the entire team, not just the offensive line.
But the only way you can guarantee you aren't behind in games is at the very beginning.

Otherwise, having superior talent to execute properly is the best way.

You can use creative playcalling, but you still need the superior talent to make it work. 

You can call screen passes to counteract defensive blitzes that might create pressure for your QB.  But unless you have linemen who can move well enough to get outside to block for those screens, it's not going to work.

While I agree with the sentiment that there's different ways to protect a QB, adding superior talent is a universal cure.
 

Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!





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#36

Question: Would you be willing to give back the 45 we got from Minnesota to trade up to Minnesota's spot in round 1?
 

Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!





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#37

(03-10-2021, 02:31 PM)Bullseye Wrote: Question:  Would you be willing to give back the 45 we got from Minnesota to trade up to Minnesota's spot in round 1?

It depends on who our target would be. If Christian Darrisaw or Rashawn Slater were still on the board and they were our target, I would absolutely do that. I probably wouldn't if we were targeting any other position.
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#38

I'd do it probably. One of Farley, Surtain, Slater, or Darrisaw will be there.
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#39

(03-10-2021, 03:01 PM)TheO-LineMatters Wrote:
(03-10-2021, 02:31 PM)Bullseye Wrote: Question:  Would you be willing to give back the 45 we got from Minnesota to trade up to Minnesota's spot in round 1?

It depends on who our target would be. If Christian Darrisaw or Rashawn Slater were still on the board and they were our target, I would absolutely do that. I probably wouldn't if we were targeting any other position.

(03-10-2021, 03:17 PM)Upper Wrote: I'd do it probably. One of Farley, Surtain, Slater, or Darrisaw will be there.

I would add Pitts to the list.
 

Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!





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#40

(03-10-2021, 03:17 PM)Upper Wrote: I'd do it probably. One of Farley, Surtain, Slater, or Darrisaw will be there.

I'm on the same page as you. These 4 players would be worth it. I might add Rousseau to that list. Pitts will be gone.
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