There will be hot-takes-a-plenty calling him a disappointment no matter what happens in 2022. 

We've got negative-nancies galore on the board and national pundits of varying ilk flooding social media and the airwaves with negative takes on former high draft picks who aren't immediate superstars. Premature rash judgements on young players to these people are just like chocolate cake to fat toddlers on their birthday.  They love that [BLEEP]. 

There will be plenty of naysayers regardless, but I suspect he takes enough of a positive step to quiet the majority of any unwarranted flack.

Agreed completely.

On the other hand, is being critical always the result of being a negative nancy?  If TL was hyped as this generational talent, at what point can he be faulted for not reaching that level of play? 

Even in the hyper-competitive QB race in the AFC, is there a point where TL can take legitimate blame for not ascending above the middle of the pack?

1st  bolded question: 
I'd say year 3 - which will hopefully be his second year in a competent system with some semblance of help.

Next bolded:
It's hard for me to blame an athlete for being overhyped by analysts as he enters the professional phase of his career. 
But - if his accuracy doesn't improve commensurately with the increase in talent around him in terms of protection and receiving - then he at least deserves the judgement of not being as advertised.

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There will be hot-takes-a-plenty calling him a disappointment no matter what happens in 2022. 

We've got negative-nancies galore on the board and national pundits of varying ilk flooding social media and the airwaves with negative takes on former high draft picks who aren't immediate superstars. Premature rash judgements on young players to these people are just like chocolate cake to fat toddlers on their birthday.  They love that [BLEEP]. 

There will be plenty of naysayers regardless, but I suspect he takes enough of a positive step to quiet the majority of any unwarranted flack.

Agreed completely.

On the other hand, is being critical always the result of being a negative nancy?  If TL was hyped as this generational talent, at what point can he be faulted for not reaching that level of play?

Even in the hyper-competitive QB race in the AFC, is there a point where TL can take legitimate blame for not ascending above the middle of the pack?

At no point would I fault Trevor or blame Trevor if he doesn't reach the level of hype that other people put on him.  The blame or fault in that case would lie with the people who overrated him.  Seriously, if a player is overrated, why blame the player?  That doesn't make any sense.

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Wow.  We really see things differently.  While I am frustrated that we did not do what it took to land Cooper and now Woods, both WRs we signed elevated the floor of our WR corps at a minimum.  Without question Kirk is the best WR on the team right now.  That he is the best and is an X/Y hybrid does not bother me.  AND  I think it's imperative to get an X in the draft.  But X does not have to be our best receiver on Day 1.  

What if we move beyond binary thinking?  The Jags reasonably need 2 offseasons to compete for the division.  In the loaded AFC we have for the foreseeable future, I believe we're going to have to win the division to make the playoffs.  This free agency has brought real improvement on both sides of the ball.  If we don't get everything we need in the draft, we will still be playing better football in 2022 than in 2021.  I can get behind that.

(Emphasis added)

This is getting a little closer to the analysis I am looking for.

Assuming all possible improvement given his year's experience, the coaching and personnel, where do you think he will end the season ranked relative to the other AFC QBs?  Would that ranking be satisfactory to the fan base as a whole?  Would the level of improvement you are thinking of under this scenario be enough to quite the skeptics that he may be a bust or at the very least overrated as a rookie?

The ones ranked above Trevor are:
Mahomes
Allen
Wilson
Watson
Herbert
Burrow
Maybe Jackson because of his rushing, not as a passer.
Maybe Carr.  But he throws some oddly inaccurate balls and makes head-scratching decisions sometimes.

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I don't see how people can make a prediction before we even have the draft.

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The one thing that kept our fan base going throughout the miserable 2020 season is the idea that we could finally land our franchise QB when all was said and done.  Sure enough, when the Jets pulled off the late season upsets of the Rams and Browns, Jaguars fans suddenly were buoyed with hope.  The guy most pundits were saying was the best QB prospect to come out since Andrew Luck, and drew comparisons to John Elway was ours. 

However, he didn't show the progress we hoped to see in his rookie year due to a myriad of factors, most notably the disastrous coaching of Urban Meyer and the free agency neglect of Trent Baalke.

There have been some promising changes in thus far in 2022.  The era of Urban Blight is over, and replaced by offensive minded Doug Pederson-a proven NFL veteran coach who won the Super Bowl with the Eagles.  While Jaguars fans were disappointed that Baalke was not fired, and further disappointed by the lack of an EVP installed over him, Jaguars fans wound up pleasantly surprised to see the free agency expenditures during this free agency period, which featured Pro Bowl G Brandon Scherff, an actual receiving threat at TE in Evan Engram, and a slot receiver who can separate in Christian Kirk.

However, things have changed elsewhere in the AFC as well.  Recent highly drafted QBs like Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert have surpassed most of the expectations their fans had for them.  Denver traded for Russell Wilson, who has made two Super Bowls and is one of the best QBs in the game.  Deshaun Watson was considered among the best QBs in the game until last year, when his refusal to play for the Texans combined with off field allegations to lead to him not playing at all.  Once it was determined the Grand jury in Houston would not indict him on those allegations, it opened the door to trade him.  While it was thought in some circles the Texans would not trade him to a team in the AFC, it turns out Cleveland won the Watson sweepstakes after winnign Amari Cooper in a separate trade.  What's more, the Raiders wound up trading for WR Devante Adams, who has been the best WR in the game over the past few years.

As a result, the AFC QBs are very strong with some of their receiving targets.

Patrick Mahomes will throw to Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce
Russell Wilson will throw to Jerry Jeudy and Cortland Sutton
Justin Herbert has Keenan Allen and Mike Williams
Derek Carr has Devante Adams and Mike Waller
Lamar Jackson-Mark Andrews, Marquise Brown
Deshaun Watson has Amari Cooper and Donovan Peoples Jones
Joe Burrow-has Jamar Chase, Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd
Josh Allen has Stefan Diggs and Gabriel Davis
Mac Jones-Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith
Tua Tagoavila-Jaylen Waddle, Mike Gesicki
Mitch Trubisky-Dionte Johnson, Chase Claypool, Pat Friermuth
Ryan Tannehill has AJ Brown and Robert Woods
Zach Wilson has CJ Uzomah, Corey Davis and Moore
Davis Mills
with former top overall pick Baker Mayfield supposedly pushing for a trade to the Colts, who will have Michael Pittman and Mo Alie Cox

Given all of the changes outlined above, what are the reasonable expectations for Trevor Lawrence in year two?  More specifically. where do you think Lawrence will rank among these QBs by the end of the 2022 season?  What is the basis for your belief?

I maintain that even if the Jaguars nail this draft, and Pederson gives Lawrence the coaching he should have gotten his rookie year, Lawrence could make significant progress and still be middle of the pack of AFC QBs at best.  I think under those circumstances, some people would still argue that he is a best, and I think that would be unreasonable.

Without knowing who the Jaguars will draft and what impact they will have, it's impossible to know how it'll play out, but as it stands now, as promising as this free agency period has been, can any of us say our receiving corps is at least in the middle of the AFC pack?

As always your thoughts are welcome.

My expectations for Lawrence are pretty simple in year two. Cut back the turnovers. Improved accuracy in the short to mid range game. More usage of his legs and mobility. Faster decisions with the football release wise. 

I think with Pederson all of those things can and will be accomplished this year. Despite all of the talent at the QB position in the AFC. There's 16 teams in total. I expect him to finish as a top 8 - 10 QB overall in the AFC between his passing yardage, completion percentage, TD:INT ratio and mobility. 

I fully expect him to finish as a top 8 - 10 QB. That's just how I feel. He was touted as this other worldly talent at the position that had not been seen since Andrew Luck, John Elway, etc. So, I expect to see that aspect of his potential and game begin to bubble up to the surface this year. 

Receiving corps wise in the AFC I still think it's right around the middle of the pack. At least on paper. Again, though, my concern is not really on that as much as some of the other fans on here. Pederson runs a TE centric passing game. If you go back and look at his five year stint in Philadelphia you will be hard pressed trying to find any of his receivers leading the pack above a TE. 

This is why I think guys like Arnold and Engram are in for a heavy dose of targets early and often in 2022. This is also why I think it's going to be absolutely crucial that they ultimately walk out of next month's draft with either McBride, Woods, Dulcich, Wydermyer or Likely. I think they need to get a TE in there early to start grooming in the event Arnold and/or Engram does not pan out or gets hurt and they have a young guy with potential ready to rock and roll. 

I actually like Lawrence's skillset with Pederson's RPO. I think a lot of what he did at Clemson is going to translate very well into what Pederson wants to do. I think Kirk, Jones and Jones along with Shenault and Agnew offer just enough at the moment at the WR position to get the job done. The RB by committee approach is going to be awesome this year when Etienne and Robinson are fully up to speed and cleared. 

And, again, still have 12 draft picks to get onto the roster (maybe less if Baalke works the trade game). 

My expectations are high. I am excited.

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"What do I know of cultured ways, the gilt, the craft and the lie? I, who was born in a naked land and bred in the open sky. The subtle tongue, the sophist guile, they fail when the broadswords sing; Rush in and die, dogs - I was a man before I was a king."

Agreed completely.

On the other hand, is being critical always the result of being a negative nancy?  If TL was hyped as this generational talent, at what point can he be faulted for not reaching that level of play?

Even in the hyper-competitive QB race in the AFC, is there a point where TL can take legitimate blame for not ascending above the middle of the pack?

At no point would I fault Trevor or blame Trevor if he doesn't reach the level of hype that other people put on him.  The blame or fault in that case would lie with the people who overrated him.  Seriously, if a player is overrated, why blame the player?  That doesn't make any sense.

Unless the player engages in self promotion like Deion Sanders, I agree it makes no sense to blame him if things go wrong.  By the same token, perhaps he benefits from the hype if it leads to him being drafted higher than he would have otherwise been taken absent the hype, or he gets endorsement deals he would have gotten absent the hype.

Gotta take the good and the bad.

Rightly or wrongly, he's going to be held to a higher standard.

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Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!

I don't see how people can make a prediction before we even have the draft.

I used a crystal football and was burning sage while barefoot when I did mine.

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A new broom always sweeps clean.

Regardless of whom we add in the draft, or who we've already added in free agency. If Trevor Lawrence has another 12 td 17 int type season, he isn't the guy. A scary thought, I know because regardless if that happens or not he will probably get at least a 3rd season to "prove it" just because of his draft position. I know a lot of people on this board think I hate Trevor or want him to fail and that's the furthest thing from the truth but I'm just being real.

My personal expectation, however is that we will see growth but I do not feel like he's going to blow anyone away because that's just not how I see him at this point in time. I think with what i'd assume to be a much more durable Offensive line and hopefully a more productive receiving core that Trevor will at the very least, improve his productivity.

Realistic expectations for me are something like 7 wins, 20 TDs 12 ints. Personally, would be very unhappy with these kinds of numbers but at the very least it would show some sort of improvement. In a 17 game season, with a much better coaching staff/line/weapons I think my entire opinion would change on Trevor if he could get us 8-10 wins, throw around 30 TDs and keep the ints below 10. I know that this sounds a bit greedy, but taking into consideration the extra game a competent "elite" QB shouldn't be throwing less than 30 TDs in this modern era of football. And god forbid, no more 7 game stretches without scoring a TD.


I'm feeling very cautiously optimistic right now, I don't have an overwelming feeling of excitement for the season that I was hoping I would around this time last year because of how inept the QB and the rest of the team played. I just hope Trevor is dialed in and ready to get better and not just coasting through the offseason because he thinks he's "made of the right stuff".


Time will tell..

I think you are being pessimistic. Being Jaguar fans tho we tend to do that. If Trev's numbers were 9/18  TD/INT would that make you more pessimistic? What about year three with 19/24? Those were Aikman and Favre's numbers respectively. My point is, it is way too early in his career to get pessimistic. I'm sorry if I am wrong despite your couching what you said in terms of being realistic, you still come across as pessimistic. I say that based on what Trevor had to work with last year. Both on the field and off. And I mean players, coaches and the entire debacle of a dysfunctional staff. I am amazed at the amount of maturity he showed, often being the most grown up of anybody in the room. He is going to be fine IMO. Will he be that "generational quarteback" we have never had? Too soon to tell but if I was a betting man, I would say yes.

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36tds 12 ints 5028 yds (I have no idea just throwing out the first numbers that came into my head :-D )

You know what's funny is somebody said Patrick Mahomes peaked last year and those are almost his exact stats, 37 td, 13 int 4800 yd.

But back on topic, if trevor has a stat line like that i'd be over the moon.

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Regardless of whom we add in the draft, or who we've already added in free agency. If Trevor Lawrence has another 12 td 17 int type season, he isn't the guy. A scary thought, I know because regardless if that happens or not he will probably get at least a 3rd season to "prove it" just because of his draft position. I know a lot of people on this board think I hate Trevor or want him to fail and that's the furthest thing from the truth but I'm just being real.

My personal expectation, however is that we will see growth but I do not feel like he's going to blow anyone away because that's just not how I see him at this point in time. I think with what i'd assume to be a much more durable Offensive line and hopefully a more productive receiving core that Trevor will at the very least, improve his productivity.

Realistic expectations for me are something like 7 wins, 20 TDs 12 ints. Personally, would be very unhappy with these kinds of numbers but at the very least it would show some sort of improvement. In a 17 game season, with a much better coaching staff/line/weapons I think my entire opinion would change on Trevor if he could get us 8-10 wins, throw around 30 TDs and keep the ints below 10. I know that this sounds a bit greedy, but taking into consideration the extra game a competent "elite" QB shouldn't be throwing less than 30 TDs in this modern era of football. And god forbid, no more 7 game stretches without scoring a TD.


I'm feeling very cautiously optimistic right now, I don't have an overwelming feeling of excitement for the season that I was hoping I would around this time last year because of how inept the QB and the rest of the team played. I just hope Trevor is dialed in and ready to get better and not just coasting through the offseason because he thinks he's "made of the right stuff".


Time will tell..

I think you are being pessimistic. Being Jaguar fans tho we tend to do that. If Trev's numbers were 9/18  TD/INT would that make you more pessimistic? What about year three with 19/24? Those were Aikman and Favre's numbers respectively. My point is, it is way too early in his career to get pessimistic. I'm sorry if I am wrong despite your couching what you said in terms of being realistic, you still come across as pessimistic. I say that based on what Trevor had to work with last year. Both on the field and off. And I mean players, coaches and the entire debacle of a dysfunctional staff. I am amazed at the amount of maturity he showed, often being the most grown up of anybody in the room. He is going to be fine IMO. Will he be that "generational quarteback" we have never had? Too soon to tell but if I was a betting man, I would say yes.

Basically what i'm saying is, year one he didn't show us much.. combined with the fact that I already felt he was overrated after watching multiple hours of his college play (not his highlights, but game by game every play tape). I am however, aware that he posses natural talents that if he busts his [BLEEP] and is coached in the right direction can certainly be extremely good. 

I'm not giving up on the guy yet, I'm just saying that for me he still has to prove he's the guy, I'm just not convinced yet. I do cut him some slack for the team he played on last year as it was garbage.. but I can't blame the WRs/coaches for his poor accuracy/decisions. That's on him.

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Anything less than 38tds and 18ints and we should just bring Bottles back

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4000 yards and 20 Td’s should be the floor for me. Not sure how we will be near the goal line, if it will be run heavy or pass heavy. I honestly don’t care and just want to be playing meaningful games come December however it happens.

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[img]blob:https://www.duvalpride.com/1a8a2498-9833-4b7d-8cc7-5e45aa36d9f6[/img][img=648x560]blob:https://www.duvalpride.com/cfd7a344-8206-4fed-a4c4-6536e150b1a7[/img]

Agreed completely.

On the other hand, is being critical always the result of being a negative nancy?  If TL was hyped as this generational talent, at what point can he be faulted for not reaching that level of play?

Even in the hyper-competitive QB race in the AFC, is there a point where TL can take legitimate blame for not ascending above the middle of the pack?

At no point would I fault Trevor or blame Trevor if he doesn't reach the level of hype that other people put on him.  The blame or fault in that case would lie with the people who overrated him.  Seriously, if a player is overrated, why blame the player?  That doesn't make any sense.

Agreed, only I would blame the front office for not surrounding him with the talent necessary for him to succeed. The talent is there, but if he has no one to throw to, how is he gonna take the next step?

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https://www.nfl.com/news/will-jaguars-sp...-duos-afte

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He will be a top-15 qb in AFC. He must be better than all the other 2021 rookies too. In order to justify his pre-draft hype he needs to a lot better than he was in 2021. I expect him to have significantly more than 4,000 yds and a td/int ratio of at least 3.

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He will be a top-15 qb in AFC. He must be better than all the other 2021 rookies too. In order to justify his pre-draft hype he needs to a lot better than he was in 2021. I expect him to have significantly more than 4,000 yds and a td/int ratio of at least 3.

Well it's good to know that you don't think he will be the worst starting quarterback in the AFC.

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I differ from some on this board in my belief that the free agent acquisitions will help Lawrence significantly. The draft should provide the receiving corps with another target for Lawrence. My hope is that they are able to land someone with the size/speed combination required to be a consistent weapon on the outside. Jameson Williams (via trade up), George Pickens and Christian Watson all have the potential to be that player- although it will naturally take some time for any of these players to adjust to the challenges of the NFL. The tight end room also improved significantly with the addition of Evan Engram. If both he and Dan Arnold remain healthy for most of the season, it would not surprise me at all if they combine for 115 receptions and 10 touchdowns. The offensive line must protect Lawrence and Scherff will help, but Walker Little needs to win the right tackle spot and perform consistently throughout the season. Shatley must show the coaches that their faith in him as a starter was justified.

To specifically answer your questions, if all the above happens Trevor Lawrence can finish the 2022-23 season as the 7th highest rated quarterback in the AFC. Mahomes, Allen, Wilson, Herbert, Watson and Burrow will continue to be the top 6 next season. Lamar Jackson and Dereck Carr are also in the discussion for leading the second tier of AFC quarterbacks. Some will scoff at this prediction, but I'm a believer in Lawrence. Everything that could possibly go wrong DID last season. The coaching fiasco and multitude of dropped passes are at the top of the list followed by an injury to the best receiver and only real speed threat at this position. Lawrence proved his toughness throughout the season and clearly possesses the leadership traits needed for a quarterback. As far as the physical tools, this is not even worthy of debate. He completed some passes last season that only a small number of NFL quarterbacks have the ability to execute.

The vast majority of fans would naturally be thrilled if this happens. It would not be unreasonable for him to throw for 4000 yards and 30 touchdowns if his new receivers meet my expectations and he naturally must stay healthy. I do expect him to throw more interceptions than is optimal- about 15 for the season. Given these numbers, there will certainly be some "fans" who continue to call him a bust and overrated. Some people are simply never able to admit they were wrong and that will never change.

(Emphasis added)

So in pretty much a best case scenario, Trevor Lawrence can rank 7th best in the AFC?

Yes, that would be best case in my opinion. The top 6 are elite and I don't believe Trevor can reach that status for at least 1 more season.

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I just keep thinking back to how tlaw played in that last game of the season. Why? The colts had everything to lose, yet we saw what happened.

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I’m not so worried about how loaded the AFC is at QB. Win the division. Win it regularly. That ensures your chip and your chair. Let’s get in the conversation first then worry about getting over the hump. I expect we’ll be playing meaningful games in November and December this year. I won’t throw the baby out with the bath water if we don’t close it out this year though.

I would not be surprised with a slow start given all the new pieces and new regime, but I’m optimistic Trevor makes a significant leap this year which should eventually show up in the win column.

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I'm not a numbers person, but I am confident that Trevor will take a huge step forward this season. In Week 18 against the Colts last year, we saw what Trevor is capable of if he is given time to pass and if his receivers can get open and hold on to the ball. They don't have to be superstars. Trevor can make them better than they would be with an average quarterback. Our receiving corps still isn't what I would call elite, yet I do think they could be good enough to do well with a QB of Trevor's abilities. I'm hoping for a season that is similar to Herbert's rookie season as far as how Trevor looks out there. As for numbers in general, I'm going to guess that he ends up with around 30-35 touchdowns, 8-10 interceptions, and 9-10 wins.

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(Emphasis added)

So in pretty much a best case scenario, Trevor Lawrence can rank 7th best in the AFC?

Yes, that would be best case in my opinion. The top 6 are elite and I don't believe Trevor can reach that status for at least 1 more season.

U agree that we'll possibly see another big jump from trevor between season 2 and season 3 in his career.

He will have had another year playing in the NFL, he will have had a full year of coaching from Pederson and company, and year three will be his second year in the offense.  There will be another year of upgrading the personnel around him.

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Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!