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Potential steals at 33

#1

Every draft has at least one player who surprisingly makes it out of Round 1 without being selected. The majority of Jaguars fans as well as the media has them selecting the top receiver still available at pick 33. There are 3 players who I believe have a decent chance of falling into this category. They are David Ojabo (due to injury), Nakobe Dean and Tyler Linderbaum (both due to concerns about size). It's very unlikely that all 3 make it to round 2, but in what order would you select them if all were available? Also, among Jahan Dotson, Christian Watson and George Pickens where would they rank? My rankings would be:

1. Nakobe Dean: The defense could be very good with Dean next to Oluakun and the addition of Hutchinson.

2. Linderbaum: Very close 2nd. Would be our center for the next 10 years unless he suffers a Michael Cheever-like injury.

3. Jahan Dotson: Maybe not a true X receiver like Watson or Pickens could become, but I see his career being similar to Tyler Lockett and Diontae Johnson. 

4. Christian Watson: He will need time to develop, but definitely has big upside as a true X receiver.

5. David Ojabo: Will need time to get over injury, but Mike Caldwell would salivate with the potential pass rush utilizing Hutchinson, Allen and Ojabo.

6. George Pickens: I expect he will end up as either a great weapon on the outside who defenses must account for or a total bust. With the Jaguars history of busts, especially at the receiver 
                           position (Blackmon, Matt Jones, Soward, etc.), I'd have to pass on Pickens. 


How would you rank these 6 and are there any other potential "droppers" who would be on your list?
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#2

I like this list. I would probably swap Watson out with Dotson though. Only because I feel this team lacks a tall guy that can play outside.

I like Dean. He's undersized but plays like a big dog. I wouldn't hesitate with him at 33. Same goes with Devonte Wyatt. Would [BLEEP] if either of those guys were there.

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#3
(This post was last modified: 03-24-2022, 07:31 PM by Upper.)

1 and 2 would be steals yes. 2 through 6 would all be meh picks. I'm not sure what thread I'm going to be posting it in but the underdog people did a big video breaking down the round 2-3 group and none of them appeal to me very much. Large red flags with all of them.

(03-24-2022, 07:00 PM)Caldrac Wrote: Same goes with Devonte Wyatt.

I'd be floored if Wyatt isn't an Eagle with one of their 3 mid round 1sts.
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#4

(03-24-2022, 06:39 PM)jaglou53 Wrote: Every draft has at least one player who surprisingly makes it out of Round 1 without being selected. The majority of Jaguars fans as well as the media has them selecting the top receiver still available at pick 33. There are 3 players who I believe have a decent chance of falling into this category. They are David Ojabo (due to injury), Nakobe Dean and Tyler Linderbaum (both due to concerns about size). It's very unlikely that all 3 make it to round 2, but in what order would you select them if all were available? Also, among Jahan Dotson, Christian Watson and George Pickens where would they rank? My rankings would be:

1. Nakobe Dean: The defense could be very good with Dean next to Oluakun and the addition of Hutchinson.

2. Linderbaum: Very close 2nd. Would be our center for the next 10 years unless he suffers a Michael Cheever-like injury.

3. Jahan Dotson: Maybe not a true X receiver like Watson or Pickens could become, but I see his career being similar to Tyler Lockett and Diontae Johnson. 

4. Christian Watson: He will need time to develop, but definitely has big upside as a true X receiver.

5. David Ojabo: Will need time to get over injury, but Mike Caldwell would salivate with the potential pass rush utilizing Hutchinson, Allen and Ojabo.

6. George Pickens: I expect he will end up as either a great weapon on the outside who defenses must account for or a total bust. With the Jaguars history of busts, especially at the receiver 
                           position (Blackmon, Matt Jones, Soward, etc.), I'd have to pass on Pickens. 


How would you rank these 6 and are there any other potential "droppers" who would be on your list?

1. Linderbaum
2. Dotson
3. Dean
4. Ojabo

I wouldn't even consider Watson until round 3 and I don't even think about drafting Pickens until round 6.
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#5
(This post was last modified: 03-24-2022, 08:19 PM by flgatorsandjags.)

1,2, or 4 would be steals. Dotson would be a good pick too

(03-24-2022, 08:11 PM)TheO-LineMatters Wrote:
(03-24-2022, 06:39 PM)jaglou53 Wrote: Every draft has at least one player who surprisingly makes it out of Round 1 without being selected. The majority of Jaguars fans as well as the media has them selecting the top receiver still available at pick 33. There are 3 players who I believe have a decent chance of falling into this category. They are David Ojabo (due to injury), Nakobe Dean and Tyler Linderbaum (both due to concerns about size). It's very unlikely that all 3 make it to round 2, but in what order would you select them if all were available? Also, among Jahan Dotson, Christian Watson and George Pickens where would they rank? My rankings would be:

1. Nakobe Dean: The defense could be very good with Dean next to Oluakun and the addition of Hutchinson.

2. Linderbaum: Very close 2nd. Would be our center for the next 10 years unless he suffers a Michael Cheever-like injury.

3. Jahan Dotson: Maybe not a true X receiver like Watson or Pickens could become, but I see his career being similar to Tyler Lockett and Diontae Johnson. 

4. Christian Watson: He will need time to develop, but definitely has big upside as a true X receiver.

5. David Ojabo: Will need time to get over injury, but Mike Caldwell would salivate with the potential pass rush utilizing Hutchinson, Allen and Ojabo.

6. George Pickens: I expect he will end up as either a great weapon on the outside who defenses must account for or a total bust. With the Jaguars history of busts, especially at the receiver 
                           position (Blackmon, Matt Jones, Soward, etc.), I'd have to pass on Pickens. 


How would you rank these 6 and are there any other potential "droppers" who would be on your list?

1. Linderbaum
2. Dotson
3. Dean
4. Ojabo

I wouldn't even consider Watson until round 3 and I don't even think about drafting Pickens until round 6.

Lol
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#6

(03-24-2022, 08:19 PM)flgatorsandjags Wrote:
Quote:I wouldn't even consider Watson until round 3 and I don't even think about drafting Pickens until round 6.

Lol

He's right about Watson. I did not realize Watson was already 23 and that he had a ridiculously high 16 drops out of 120 targets. Those are both giant red flags. No way he is BAP at 33, pray someone foolishly takes him before us.
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#7

(03-24-2022, 08:28 PM)Upper Wrote:
(03-24-2022, 08:19 PM)flgatorsandjags Wrote: Lol

He's right about Watson. I did not realize Watson was already 23 and that he had a ridiculously high 16 drops out of 120 targets. Those are both giant red flags. No way he is BAP at 33, pray someone foolishly takes him before us.
I told you a few days ago drops were his biggest issue.  23 isn't an issue.
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#8
(This post was last modified: 03-24-2022, 08:52 PM by Upper. Edited 1 time in total.)

(03-24-2022, 08:33 PM)flgatorsandjags Wrote:
(03-24-2022, 08:28 PM)Upper Wrote: He's right about Watson. I did not realize Watson was already 23 and that he had a ridiculously high 16 drops out of 120 targets. Those are both giant red flags. No way he is BAP at 33, pray someone foolishly takes him before us.
I told you a few days ago drops were his biggest issue.  23 isn't an issue.

23 is a big issue. Not only was he competing against small school competition but he was also doing it as a significantly more developed human being.

There is also a difference between drops being an issue and having over a 13% drop rate! You just can't take him at 33. Can't do it.
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#9

(03-24-2022, 06:39 PM)jaglou53 Wrote: Every draft has at least one player who surprisingly makes it out of Round 1 without being selected. The majority of Jaguars fans as well as the media has them selecting the top receiver still available at pick 33. There are 3 players who I believe have a decent chance of falling into this category. They are David Ojabo (due to injury), Nakobe Dean and Tyler Linderbaum (both due to concerns about size). It's very unlikely that all 3 make it to round 2, but in what order would you select them if all were available? Also, among Jahan Dotson, Christian Watson and George Pickens where would they rank? My rankings would be:

1. Nakobe Dean: The defense could be very good with Dean next to Oluakun and the addition of Hutchinson.

2. Linderbaum: Very close 2nd. Would be our center for the next 10 years unless he suffers a Michael Cheever-like injury.

3. Jahan Dotson: Maybe not a true X receiver like Watson or Pickens could become, but I see his career being similar to Tyler Lockett and Diontae Johnson. 

4. Christian Watson: He will need time to develop, but definitely has big upside as a true X receiver.

5. David Ojabo: Will need time to get over injury, but Mike Caldwell would salivate with the potential pass rush utilizing Hutchinson, Allen and Ojabo.

6. George Pickens: I expect he will end up as either a great weapon on the outside who defenses must account for or a total bust. With the Jaguars history of busts, especially at the receiver 
                           position (Blackmon, Matt Jones, Soward, etc.), I'd have to pass on Pickens. 


How would you rank these 6 and are there any other potential "droppers" who would be on your list?

The only way I see us roll the dice on Ojabo is if we pass on Hutch. My board would be:

1) Linderbaum - great value, would fill a long-term need, and Shatley's presence may afford him time to add bulk/strengthor otherwise prepare, similar to Little's progression last season.
2) Dean - again value and positional need put him here.
3) Watson - I favor him over Dotson solely on measurables (height, primarily), I think Dotson overlaps with guys like Agnew regarding agility and quickness type of play. We still need a guy to get the jump balls.
4) Dotson - see above.
5a) Ojabo - only if we do not take Hutch. If we trade back or take a tackle, this could be a value play. The team would have to have confidence in Smoot and Chaisson to carry the load in 22, though. If they do not, chances are the team would value a healthier (at present) OLB either equal to Ojabo or better, and take that guy instead.
5b) Pickens - Would probably be the last resort, assumes that the other four or five are already selected, and we are fixated on taking a WR. I'm not committing seppuku if we take him like some others have implied, but the concerns are there, and I'd be interested to know who else at other positions would be available at 33. I see this more as a needs pick than seizing any significant value. In fact, we'd probably be letting some really good players slip past if we are this committed to a WR.
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#10

(03-25-2022, 09:44 AM)Mikey Wrote:
(03-24-2022, 06:39 PM)jaglou53 Wrote: Every draft has at least one player who surprisingly makes it out of Round 1 without being selected. The majority of Jaguars fans as well as the media has them selecting the top receiver still available at pick 33. There are 3 players who I believe have a decent chance of falling into this category. They are David Ojabo (due to injury), Nakobe Dean and Tyler Linderbaum (both due to concerns about size). It's very unlikely that all 3 make it to round 2, but in what order would you select them if all were available? Also, among Jahan Dotson, Christian Watson and George Pickens where would they rank? My rankings would be:

1. Nakobe Dean: The defense could be very good with Dean next to Oluakun and the addition of Hutchinson.

2. Linderbaum: Very close 2nd. Would be our center for the next 10 years unless he suffers a Michael Cheever-like injury.

3. Jahan Dotson: Maybe not a true X receiver like Watson or Pickens could become, but I see his career being similar to Tyler Lockett and Diontae Johnson. 

4. Christian Watson: He will need time to develop, but definitely has big upside as a true X receiver.

5. David Ojabo: Will need time to get over injury, but Mike Caldwell would salivate with the potential pass rush utilizing Hutchinson, Allen and Ojabo.

6. George Pickens: I expect he will end up as either a great weapon on the outside who defenses must account for or a total bust. With the Jaguars history of busts, especially at the receiver 
                           position (Blackmon, Matt Jones, Soward, etc.), I'd have to pass on Pickens. 


How would you rank these 6 and are there any other potential "droppers" who would be on your list?

The only way I see us roll the dice on Ojabo is if we pass on Hutch. My board would be:

1) Linderbaum - great value, would fill a long-term need, and Shatley's presence may afford him time to add bulk/strengthor otherwise prepare, similar to Little's progression last season.
2) Dean - again value and positional need put him here.
3) Watson - I favor him over Dotson solely on measurables (height, primarily), I think Dotson overlaps with guys like Agnew regarding agility and quickness type of play. We still need a guy to get the jump balls.
4) Dotson - see above.
5a) Ojabo - only if we do not take Hutch. If we trade back or take a tackle, this could be a value play. The team would have to have confidence in Smoot and Chaisson to carry the load in 22, though. If they do not, chances are the team would value a healthier (at present) OLB either equal to Ojabo or better, and take that guy instead.
5b) Pickens - Would probably be the last resort, assumes that the other four or five are already selected, and we are fixated on taking a WR. I'm not committing seppuku if we take him like some others have implied, but the concerns are there, and I'd be interested to know who else at other positions would be available at 33. I see this more as a needs pick than seizing any significant value. In fact, we'd probably be letting some really good players slip past if we are this committed to a WR.

Definitely. We're not gonna take back to back edge rushers.
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#11

(03-25-2022, 10:32 AM)TheO-LineMatters Wrote:
(03-25-2022, 09:44 AM)Mikey Wrote: The only way I see us roll the dice on Ojabo is if we pass on Hutch. My board would be:

1) Linderbaum - great value, would fill a long-term need, and Shatley's presence may afford him time to add bulk/strengthor otherwise prepare, similar to Little's progression last season.
2) Dean - again value and positional need put him here.
3) Watson - I favor him over Dotson solely on measurables (height, primarily), I think Dotson overlaps with guys like Agnew regarding agility and quickness type of play. We still need a guy to get the jump balls.
4) Dotson - see above.
5a) Ojabo - only if we do not take Hutch. If we trade back or take a tackle, this could be a value play. The team would have to have confidence in Smoot and Chaisson to carry the load in 22, though. If they do not, chances are the team would value a healthier (at present) OLB either equal to Ojabo or better, and take that guy instead.
5b) Pickens - Would probably be the last resort, assumes that the other four or five are already selected, and we are fixated on taking a WR. I'm not committing seppuku if we take him like some others have implied, but the concerns are there, and I'd be interested to know who else at other positions would be available at 33. I see this more as a needs pick than seizing any significant value. In fact, we'd probably be letting some really good players slip past if we are this committed to a WR.

Definitely. We're not gonna take back to back edge rushers.

We did it in '08 with Harvey and Groves. Didn't turn out well but it's not unprecedented
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#12

Ojabo is very raw because he just started playing football a few years ago. Now he will miss his entire rookie season. You really think a player who is going to miss his first full season and then will be a very raw second year player likely needing another season or two to continue learning the game before making an impact is a steal at 33?
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#13

I think there are a few guys that typically are mocked in round 1, that just might slip into the pick 33, to provide a steal....

OC Tyler Linderbaum ...on the smaller side and limited positionally just might drop him slightly.
Edge Boye Mafe ....might slip due to edge depth and an anticipated WR run later in round 1.
OG Zion Johnson ...guards rarely get taken in round 1 but he's worth it.
WR Jahan Dotson ...catch and run threat, not an X but I will take if he falls.
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#14
(This post was last modified: 03-30-2022, 09:25 AM by TheO-LineMatters. Edited 1 time in total.)

(03-29-2022, 08:28 PM)ATLjag Wrote: I think there are a few guys that typically are mocked in round 1, that just might slip into the pick 33, to provide a steal....

OC Tyler Linderbaum ...on the smaller side and limited positionally just might drop him slightly.
Edge Boye Mafe  ....might slip due to edge depth and an anticipated WR run later in round 1.
OG Zion Johnson ...guards rarely get taken in round 1 but he's worth it.
WR Jahan Dotson ...catch and run threat, not an X but I will take if he falls.

I can see Mafe and Johnson slipping to #33, but I believe Linderbaum is gonna go in the top 15 and I really don't see Dotson making it passed Green Bay. Even if Mafe makes it to #33, we're in all likelihood gonna take an edge rusher #1 overall, so the chance of taking back to back pass rushers is slim to none. Everyone on this list is a very good player though.
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#15

(03-30-2022, 09:24 AM)TheO-LineMatters Wrote:
(03-29-2022, 08:28 PM)ATLjag Wrote: I think there are a few guys that typically are mocked in round 1, that just might slip into the pick 33, to provide a steal....

OC Tyler Linderbaum ...on the smaller side and limited positionally just might drop him slightly.
Edge Boye Mafe  ....might slip due to edge depth and an anticipated WR run later in round 1.
OG Zion Johnson ...guards rarely get taken in round 1 but he's worth it.
WR Jahan Dotson ...catch and run threat, not an X but I will take if he falls.

I can see Mafe and Johnson slipping to #33, but I believe Linderbaum is gonna go in the top 15 and I really don't see Dotson making it passed Green Bay. Even if Mafe makes it to #33, we're in all likelihood gonna take an edge rusher #1 overall, so the chance of taking back to back pass rushers is slim to none. Everyone on this list is a very good player though.

Lol I have it exactly backwards. I think Mafe and Johnson both go before Linderbaum and Dotson. I think they're all first rounders though.
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#16

Tyler Linderbaum is definitely no longer in the conversation at #33 now. He silenced all critics at his Pro Day when he clocked in a 4.98/40 at 300 lbs, which was up from his playing weight of 290 lbs. He also had 24 reps on the bench press and had historically good agility tests which ranked him among the best Center prospects of all time. I'd be shocked if he didn't go in the top 20. He's the best O-Lineman in the draft.
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#17

(04-12-2022, 07:48 PM)TheO-LineMatters Wrote: Tyler Linderbaum is definitely no longer in the conversation at #33 now. He silenced all critics at his Pro Day when he clocked in a 4.98/40 at 300 lbs, which was up from his playing weight of 290 lbs. He also had 24 reps on the bench press and had historically good agility tests which ranked him among the best Center prospects of all time. I'd be shocked if he didn't go in the top 20. He's the best O-Lineman in the draft.

I don't think he makes it past Dallas. I really hope we draft a center. There are some really good prospects out there.
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#18

(04-12-2022, 07:48 PM)TheO-LineMatters Wrote: Tyler Linderbaum is definitely no longer in the conversation at #33 now. He silenced all critics at his Pro Day when he clocked in a 4.98/40 at 300 lbs, which was up from his playing weight of 290 lbs. He also had 24 reps on the bench press and had historically good agility tests which ranked him among the best Center prospects of all time. I'd be shocked if he didn't go in the top 20. He's the best O-Lineman in the draft.

Even I'd he did no pro day I don't think he had a chance to be there at 33
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#19

(03-30-2022, 09:24 AM)TheO-LineMatters Wrote:
(03-29-2022, 08:28 PM)ATLjag Wrote: I think there are a few guys that typically are mocked in round 1, that just might slip into the pick 33, to provide a steal....

OC Tyler Linderbaum ...on the smaller side and limited positionally just might drop him slightly.
Edge Boye Mafe  ....might slip due to edge depth and an anticipated WR run later in round 1.
OG Zion Johnson ...guards rarely get taken in round 1 but he's worth it.
WR Jahan Dotson ...catch and run threat, not an X but I will take if he falls.

I can see Mafe and Johnson slipping to #33, but I believe Linderbaum is gonna go in the top 15 and I really don't see Dotson making it passed Green Bay. Even if Mafe makes it to #33, we're in all likelihood gonna take an edge rusher #1 overall, so the chance of taking back to back pass rushers is slim to none. Everyone on this list is a very good player though.

I'd be thrilled if Linderbaum, Johnson or Dotsom would be at 33 (assuming we don't move up r down).

Typically if that happened, the Jaguars would end up taking someone I didn't want.  Yet hope springs eternal.
 

Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!





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#20

This is the pick the Jags will get the most calls from other teams looking to move up.
A new broom always sweeps clean.
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