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Acceptable sack number for Travon Walker assuming he starts most of the year?

#21

(07-26-2022, 10:53 AM)rpr52121 Wrote: Wouldn't QB pressures and tackles for loss be more important than old skool sack totals?

Yes, I would much rather see a competitive pressure percentage than sack total.
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#22

(07-26-2022, 01:10 PM)RicoTx Wrote: Unless he leads the league he’s a bust and they should cut him.

Why wait? It's clear from the fact that the Jaguars drafted him he's a bust.
“An empty vessel makes the loudest sound, so they that have the least wit are the greatest babblers.”. - Plato

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#23
(This post was last modified: 07-26-2022, 06:02 PM by jaguarmvp.)

(07-26-2022, 01:56 AM)snaxdelrio Wrote: One more than Hutchinson

Yea that could be egg all over the front office face if Hutch gets like 9 or so and walker ends up with 5 or less.  I don't see that happening but could.

(07-26-2022, 10:53 AM)rpr52121 Wrote: Wouldn't QB pressures and tackles for loss be more important than old skool sack totals?

No,  How many times do you see good Qb's under pressure and they end up burning the defense?  It happens a ton.  Sacks means you killed the play and affected the remaining drives.  Sacks are by far still the most important stat for a pass rusher.  The only other stat one could argue is forced fumbles.

(07-26-2022, 11:56 AM)CanDoBetter Wrote:
(07-26-2022, 09:55 AM)iHaunting Raven Wrote: He should have at least 6 since he was #1 overall.

We have to see how he plays though not just the sack number.

He'll get maximum 2 sacks. 

Maybe I should start the Walker critique thread?

If he only manages 2 then yes!
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#24

(07-26-2022, 11:56 AM)CanDoBetter Wrote:
(07-26-2022, 09:55 AM)iHaunting Raven Wrote: He should have at least 6 since he was #1 overall.

We have to see how he plays though not just the sack number.

He'll get maximum 2 sacks. 

Maybe I should start the Walker critique thread?

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"Treyvon Wallet is elite run defender and better overall than Aidan Hutchinson" 11/11/23
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#25

(07-26-2022, 04:12 PM)Upper Wrote:
(07-26-2022, 10:53 AM)rpr52121 Wrote: Wouldn't QB pressures and tackles for loss be more important than old skool sack totals?

Yes, I would much rather see a competitive pressure percentage than sack total.

I disagree with this whole pressure over sacks bs.


I have seen plenty of QB's "under pressure" only to make a great play and burn defenses.  Russel Wilson has made a career of killing defenses "under pressure"   A sack means a play is dead and over with.

You ask any defensive player and they wiill take a sack over a pressure any day of the week.

A Rusher get a pressure, QB can escape and make a huge play down field.  Many do this regularly.

A Rusher gets a sack, the play is blown dead and forces the other team in a long yardage situation.  It also gets the rusher a chance to get a strip sack.
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#26

He is #1 he should get a ton of both, no excuses.

And yes, you can pressure a QB a lot and he still can end up throwing a TD so...
"Treyvon Wallet is elite run defender and better overall than Aidan Hutchinson" 11/11/23
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#28
(This post was last modified: 07-26-2022, 10:24 PM by surfon. Edited 1 time in total.)

So much more goes into sack numhers. Like is your team good? How often do you have a lead in the second half forcing other teams into more passing situations?

That plays a lot into sack numbers to me. If the overall team can improve the sack numbers should improve. With that said anything l3ss than 7 will be a dissapoint in my eyes if he plays a 17 game season. That is less than .5 sacks game,
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#29

If we’re being honest, anything over 4 sacks is a success.
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#30

With his strength and athleticism, I think he'll get from 7-10 sacks.

He doesn't have the problem most rookie DEs have: they don't have the strength. Plenty of them have speed but it's rare for one to be ready strengthwise. Which is why a lot struggle without developing moves.

This guy has the strength to beat tackles, guards and TEs game 1, and will surprise teams the 1st 3 or so games. I expect him to get 3-4 in the 1st 4-6 games, hit a drought for a stretch and then close with 4-6 sacks.
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#31

(07-26-2022, 06:14 PM)iHaunting Raven Wrote: He is #1 he should get a ton of both, no excuses.

And yes, you can pressure a QB a lot and he still can end up throwing a TD so...

pressures result in mistakes and incompletions more often than TDs

Let's not pretend pressures are benign
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#32

Hoping for 6-7 sacks. If he can help us limit Derrick Henry to less than 100ypg and 2tds that's a W.
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#33

(07-26-2022, 11:59 PM)NYC4jags Wrote:
(07-26-2022, 06:14 PM)iHaunting Raven Wrote: He is #1 he should get a ton of both, no excuses.

And yes, you can pressure a QB a lot and he still can end up throwing a TD so...

pressures result in mistakes and incompletions more often than TDs

Let's not pretend pressures are benign

We would know, happened a lot around here last year.
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#34

Depends on how they use him. At Georgia he was used to free up other people to go after the QB the majority of the time.
A new broom always sweeps clean.
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#35

18 sacks. Anything less should require a suplex from the Iron Sheik.
You're Welcome.
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#36

(07-26-2022, 06:09 PM)jaguarmvp Wrote: I disagree with this whole pressure over sacks bs.

Obviously 1 sack is better than 1 pressure. The problem is that sacks can be very fluky and vary widely on a season by season basis. Pressures are a far more stable and predictive stat for future success.
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#37

Depends how you look at it honestly. I think (not basing this on actual stats, just what I remember personally) that Dante Fowler had a knack for just almost sacking qbs.. often times he's either miss them or just be a second too late and the play would end up going well for the opposing team. In that scenario, Pressures are meaningless.. now if you got a guy whos bursting threw the line and causing the qb to dip out or throw the ball away out of fear.. that's another story.
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#38

A sackful of sacks
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#39
(This post was last modified: 07-27-2022, 08:51 AM by Upper.)

(07-27-2022, 08:38 AM)ChrisJagBoy Wrote: Depends how you look at it honestly. I think (not basing this on actual stats, just what I remember personally) that Dante Fowler had a knack for just almost sacking qbs.. often times he's either miss them or just be a second too late and the play would end up going well for the opposing team. In that scenario, Pressures are meaningless.. now if you got a guy whos bursting threw the line and causing the qb to dip out or throw the ball away out of fear.. that's another story.

Yeah, you are misremembering. The average number of pressures per sack, at least back when we were having those Fowler/Beasley debates I'm not sure what it is now, was ~9 pressures for every 1 sack. The elite guys like Mack and Miller were getting pressures at a consistently ~7:1 ratio. Beasley in his league leading sack season was at a 5:1 ratio.

Fowler for his Jags career hovered in the 3:1 range. He did almost nothing all game until one or two snaps where the defense just forgot about him because they were worried about Yannick, Calais, Malik, and Dareus and Fowler essentially got a free rush. You probably wouldn't even need to take your shoes off to count the number of times that Fowler legitimately lined up across from a tackle and beat him during his Jags tenure.
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#40

(07-26-2022, 06:09 PM)jaguarmvp Wrote:
(07-26-2022, 04:12 PM)Upper Wrote: Yes, I would much rather see a competitive pressure percentage than sack total.

I disagree with this whole pressure over sacks bs.


I have seen plenty of QB's "under pressure" only to make a great play and burn defenses.  Russel Wilson has made a career of killing defenses "under pressure"   A sack means a play is dead and over with.

You ask any defensive player and they wiill take a sack over a pressure any day of the week.

A Rusher get a pressure, QB can escape and make a huge play down field.  Many do this regularly.

A Rusher gets a sack, the play is blown dead and forces the other team in a long yardage situation.  It also gets the rusher a chance to get a strip sack.

Pressure is not "better" than a sack and I don't think anyone is claiming that.  Pressure is almost as good as a sack, not better.  A team doesn't play against Russell Wilson every week.  Most QBs' performance goes down with pressure.
My fellow southpaw Mark Brunell will probably always be my favorite Jaguar.
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