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Acceptable sack number for Travon Walker assuming he starts most of the year?

#41

(07-27-2022, 08:38 AM)ChrisJagBoy Wrote: Depends how you look at it honestly. I think (not basing this on actual stats, just what I remember personally) ...

Basing it on actual stats:

Most QBs who are not in the elite percentage of "under pressure pass completion" will dip between 10% and 20 % in their completion percentage while under pressure. 

For instance, Matt Ryan, who we now face twice a year in our division, saw his completion percentage drop by 11% when pressured in 2021 - and that actually placed him in the top ten as one of the best under pressure. 

There may only be 4 or 5 QBs on our schedule this season who will not suffer a 12% (and often much greater) reduction in completion percentage when pressured. 

That amount of incompletions will absolutely affect the scoreboard in most of those games.

Pressures are good, they are effective, and dismissing them is a fools errand.

Anecdotes about a former 1st round pick pass rusher turned journeyman rotational guy who has had 2 good seasons out of eight years in the league don't tell us anything about the effect pressures have on quarterbacks league wide.
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#42
(This post was last modified: 07-27-2022, 09:22 AM by Bullseye.)

(07-26-2022, 02:28 AM)ChrisJagBoy Wrote: Personally I just want to see him use his physical attributes to dominate whomever he lines up against, the numbers don't matter too me as much this year. Let me see him put a tackle on the ground once or twice a game and i'll be content.

But how do you know if he's dominant if his numbers don't reflect dominance?  The occasional good play like putting an opposing T on the ground?

Trevor Lawrence certainly had the occasional good throw last year, but you seem to think he's on his way to being a bust if he isn't there already.

Why the double standard?

Why are mediocre stats by the occasional flash of talent good enough for Walker but not sufficient for Trevor Lawrence in your eyes?

(07-26-2022, 08:40 PM)jaguarmvp Wrote: https://twitter.com/PriscoCBS/status/155...TJQDJ3s0Ug

Sounds promising, but I temper my enthusiasm because they are not in pads yet.

I sure hope Walker can be a dominant edge rusher though.
 

Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!





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#43

The point is not how good pressures are vs sacks in the literal way. Obviously a sack is WAY better than a pressure in a game.

The point is entirely that there is a lot of noise in sack totals, really any number where the total is usually in the single digits. A fluky 2 or 3 in either direction can vastly change the perception. Remember Mincey's great season that really wasn't that great he just racked up 5 or 6 sacks vs that horrible Colts oline twice.

Walker getting 6 sacks as a rookie could mean just about anything. Maybe he was actually quite solid for a rookie, or maybe he got a couple of cleanup sacks and a couple because he was handled but the QB just happened to try to escape the pocket right into him. On the other hand, if he has a double digit pressure percentage as a rookie I think we can safely assume he is going to wind up being a damn good player.
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#44

I'm pleasantly surprised by the levelheadedness in this thread. I came in expecting to see "He needs 10+ or he's a bust!!!" posts.

Personally I think he gets around 5-6 and frees up Allen to get double digits. I also expect to see a lot of flashes and seeing the physical potential develop as the year progresses. Week 17 Walker will be a different player than Week 1 Walker
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#45
(This post was last modified: 07-27-2022, 11:36 AM by ChrisJagBoy.)

(07-27-2022, 09:10 AM)NYC4jags Wrote:
(07-27-2022, 08:38 AM)ChrisJagBoy Wrote: Depends how you look at it honestly. I think (not basing this on actual stats, just what I remember personally) ...

Basing it on actual stats:

Most QBs who are not in the elite percentage of "under pressure pass completion" will dip between 10% and 20 % in their completion percentage while under pressure. 

For instance, Matt Ryan, who we now face twice a year in our division, saw his completion percentage drop by 11% when pressured in 2021 - and that actually placed him in the top ten as one of the best under pressure. 

There may only be 4 or 5 QBs on our schedule this season who will not suffer a 12% (and often much greater) reduction in completion percentage when pressured. 

That amount of incompletions will absolutely affect the scoreboard in most of those games.

Pressures are good, they are effective, and dismissing them is a fools errand.

Anecdotes about a former 1st round pick pass rusher turned journeyman rotational guy who has had 2 good seasons out of eight years in the league don't tell us anything about the effect pressures have on quarterbacks league wide.

Not sure why you only quoted part of my post but this is what I meant. 
Dante Fowler was the kind of guy to break through late and technically "get pressure" on the QB, but by the time he made it back there the ball was coming out and he had very little effect on the play. Where as on the other hand a good pass rusher getting a hurry who broke through the line explosively and rushed the qb to make a poor decision because of how quickly he got there. 

Both plays would count as a QB pressure statistically, but were completely different outcomes.

(07-27-2022, 09:20 AM)Bullseye Wrote:
(07-26-2022, 02:28 AM)ChrisJagBoy Wrote: Personally I just want to see him use his physical attributes to dominate whomever he lines up against, the numbers don't matter too me as much this year. Let me see him put a tackle on the ground once or twice a game and i'll be content.

But how do you know if he's dominant if his numbers don't reflect dominance?  The occasional good play like putting an opposing T on the ground?

Trevor Lawrence certainly had the occasional good throw last year, but you seem to think he's on his way to being a bust if he isn't there already.

Why the double standard?

Why are mediocre stats by the occasional flash of talent good enough for Walker but not sufficient for Trevor Lawrence in your eyes?

(07-26-2022, 08:40 PM)jaguarmvp Wrote: https://twitter.com/PriscoCBS/status/155...TJQDJ3s0Ug

Sounds promising, but I temper my enthusiasm because they are not in pads yet.

I sure hope Walker can be a dominant edge rusher though.

I saw very little dominant plays from Trevor Lawrence last season, not to turn this thread into another debate on that subject. The only two plays Trevor made that I can think of that made me think "Wow that was amazing" was the botched snap, roll out touchdown in the back of the endzone and maybe that early TD to DJ Chark for 40+ yards. 

So in other words, no if Travon Walker has 3-5 amazing plays and is an absolute dud the rest of the season I wouldn't be happy.
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#46

(07-27-2022, 09:40 AM)Upper Wrote: The point is not how good pressures are vs sacks in the literal way. Obviously a sack is WAY better than a pressure in a game.

The point is entirely that there is a lot of noise in sack totals, really any number where the total is usually in the single digits. A fluky 2 or 3 in either direction can vastly change the perception. Remember Mincey's great season that really wasn't that great he just racked up 5 or 6 sacks vs that horrible Colts oline twice.

Walker getting 6 sacks as a rookie could mean just about anything. Maybe he was actually quite solid for a rookie, or maybe he got a couple of cleanup sacks and a couple because he was handled but the QB just happened to try to escape the pocket right into him. On the other hand, if he has a double digit pressure percentage as a rookie I think we can safely assume he is going to wind up being a damn good player.

6 sacks could mean he made 6 really good plays, or 6 sacks could mean he got the Andre Branch treatment of only making plays on stunts where the line messed up and didn't block him.

I assume this is what you mean, and I agree.
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#47

(07-27-2022, 11:33 AM)ChrisJagBoy Wrote:
(07-27-2022, 09:10 AM)NYC4jags Wrote: Basing it on actual stats:

Most QBs who are not in the elite percentage of "under pressure pass completion" will dip between 10% and 20 % in their completion percentage while under pressure. 

For instance, Matt Ryan, who we now face twice a year in our division, saw his completion percentage drop by 11% when pressured in 2021 - and that actually placed him in the top ten as one of the best under pressure. 

There may only be 4 or 5 QBs on our schedule this season who will not suffer a 12% (and often much greater) reduction in completion percentage when pressured. 

That amount of incompletions will absolutely affect the scoreboard in most of those games.

Pressures are good, they are effective, and dismissing them is a fools errand.

Anecdotes about a former 1st round pick pass rusher turned journeyman rotational guy who has had 2 good seasons out of eight years in the league don't tell us anything about the effect pressures have on quarterbacks league wide.

Not sure why you only quoted part of my post but this is what I meant. 
Dante Fowler was the kind of guy to break through late and technically "get pressure" on the QB, but by the time he made it back there the ball was coming out and he had very little effect on the play. Where as on the other hand a good pass rusher getting a hurry who broke through the line explosively and rushed the qb to make a poor decision because of how quickly he got there. 

Both plays would count as a QB pressure statistically, but were completely different outcomes.


I quoted only the part that was relevant.

Fowler is irrelevant to the discussion IMO  - as are the two types of pressure you are describing

Of course some pressures affect a QB differently than others, but as I clearly laid out for you, the incompletion percentage increase that occurs to most QBs as a result of pressure is undeniable and it will undoubtedly affect the score and outcome of many games wherein non-elite QBs are consistently pressured. 

This is true regardless of some pressures being more effective than others.
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#48

"Pressure" is about the most subjective stat in football behind only "Tackles."
“An empty vessel makes the loudest sound, so they that have the least wit are the greatest babblers.”. - Plato

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#49

(07-27-2022, 09:02 AM)mikesez Wrote:
(07-26-2022, 06:09 PM)jaguarmvp Wrote: I disagree with this whole pressure over sacks bs.


I have seen plenty of QB's "under pressure" only to make a great play and burn defenses.  Russel Wilson has made a career of killing defenses "under pressure"   A sack means a play is dead and over with.

You ask any defensive player and they wiill take a sack over a pressure any day of the week.

A Rusher get a pressure, QB can escape and make a huge play down field.  Many do this regularly.

A Rusher gets a sack, the play is blown dead and forces the other team in a long yardage situation.  It also gets the rusher a chance to get a strip sack.

Pressure is not "better" than a sack and I don't think anyone is claiming that.  Pressure is almost as good as a sack, not better.  A team doesn't play against Russell Wilson every week.  Most QBs' performance goes down with pressure.
The guy you quoted said he prefer a better pressure stat than sack total.  What are you talking about?
[Image: mvp.avia8a99974486b2b89.md.png]
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#50
(This post was last modified: 07-27-2022, 09:19 PM by ChrisJagBoy. Edited 2 times in total.)

(07-27-2022, 11:45 AM)NYC4jags Wrote:
(07-27-2022, 11:33 AM)ChrisJagBoy Wrote: Not sure why you only quoted part of my post but this is what I meant. 
Dante Fowler was the kind of guy to break through late and technically "get pressure" on the QB, but by the time he made it back there the ball was coming out and he had very little effect on the play. Where as on the other hand a good pass rusher getting a hurry who broke through the line explosively and rushed the qb to make a poor decision because of how quickly he got there. 

Both plays would count as a QB pressure statistically, but were completely different outcomes.


I quoted only the part that was relevant.

Fowler is irrelevant to the discussion IMO  - as are the two types of pressure you are describing

Of course some pressures affect a QB differently than others, but as I clearly laid out for you, the incompletion percentage increase that occurs to most QBs as a result of pressure is undeniable and it will undoubtedly affect the score and outcome of many games wherein non-elite QBs are consistently pressured. 

This is true regardless of some pressures being more effective than others.

So you're under the assumption that a guy busting through the line immediately as the play begins causing the qb to panic and make a mistake is the same thing as a guy who got blocked for 2-3 seconds, qb holds the ball a little too long guy gets free and then the pass gets completed but still counts as a pressure because the guy was free right b4 the throw is the same thing?
Seems the fowler comparison was extremely important since you clearly have no clue what i'm talking about based on your response.

Cause it's not, and you're wrong.

(07-27-2022, 04:02 PM)flsprtsgod Wrote: "Pressure" is about the most subjective stat in football behind only "Tackles."

I rarely agree with you, but this is basically what I was trying to explain above. 

If rusher A gets unblocked and runs through a gap immediately and the qb throws the ball away.. that counts as a qb pressure.
if rusher B gets blocked, but then gets around his guy and the qb held the ball long enough and then he throws a completion with said rusher getting close it also counts as a pressure.


But even tho NYCJAGS seems to think it's the same difference, it's really not.
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#51

(07-27-2022, 12:20 AM)Jagsman Wrote: Hoping for 6-7 sacks. If he can help us limit Derrick Henry to less than 100ypg and 2tds that's a W.

Straight Facts
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#52

(07-27-2022, 09:15 PM)ChrisJagBoy Wrote:
(07-27-2022, 11:45 AM)NYC4jags Wrote: I quoted only the part that was relevant.

Fowler is irrelevant to the discussion IMO  - as are the two types of pressure you are describing

Of course some pressures affect a QB differently than others, but as I clearly laid out for you, the incompletion percentage increase that occurs to most QBs as a result of pressure is undeniable and it will undoubtedly affect the score and outcome of many games wherein non-elite QBs are consistently pressured. 

This is true regardless of some pressures being more effective than others.

So you're under the assumption that a guy busting through the line immediately as the play begins causing the qb to panic and make a mistake is the same thing as a guy who got blocked for 2-3 seconds, qb holds the ball a little too long guy gets free and then the pass gets completed but still counts as a pressure because the guy was free right b4 the throw is the same thing?
Seems the fowler comparison was extremely important since you clearly have no clue what i'm talking about based on your response.

Cause it's not, and you're wrong.


NO

I'm not under any assumption at all. 

I'm spoon feeding you very basic and simple information statistically about how pressure reduces completion percentage greatly for most NFL quarterbacks and reduces it marginally for the few elite quarterbacks. 

But you are being a [BLEEP] tool as usual and trying to get hung up on the trees while ignoring the giant forest staring you in your dumb [BLEEP] face.
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#53

(07-28-2022, 12:33 AM)NYC4jags Wrote:
(07-27-2022, 09:15 PM)ChrisJagBoy Wrote: So you're under the assumption that a guy busting through the line immediately as the play begins causing the qb to panic and make a mistake is the same thing as a guy who got blocked for 2-3 seconds, qb holds the ball a little too long guy gets free and then the pass gets completed but still counts as a pressure because the guy was free right b4 the throw is the same thing?
Seems the fowler comparison was extremely important since you clearly have no clue what i'm talking about based on your response.

Cause it's not, and you're wrong.


NO

I'm not under any assumption at all. 

I'm spoon feeding you very basic and simple information statistically about how pressure reduces completion percentage greatly for most NFL quarterbacks and reduces it marginally for the few elite quarterbacks. 

But you are being a [BLEEP] tool as usual and trying to get hung up on the trees while ignoring the giant forest staring you in your dumb [BLEEP] face.

[Image: tenor.gif]
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#54

(07-27-2022, 09:15 PM)ChrisJagBoy Wrote:
(07-27-2022, 11:45 AM)NYC4jags Wrote: I quoted only the part that was relevant.

Fowler is irrelevant to the discussion IMO  - as are the two types of pressure you are describing

Of course some pressures affect a QB differently than others, but as I clearly laid out for you, the incompletion percentage increase that occurs to most QBs as a result of pressure is undeniable and it will undoubtedly affect the score and outcome of many games wherein non-elite QBs are consistently pressured. 

This is true regardless of some pressures being more effective than others.

So you're under the assumption that a guy busting through the line immediately as the play begins causing the qb to panic and make a mistake is the same thing as a guy who got blocked for 2-3 seconds, qb holds the ball a little too long guy gets free and then the pass gets completed but still counts as a pressure because the guy was free right b4 the throw is the same thing?
Seems the fowler comparison was extremely important since you clearly have no clue what i'm talking about based on your response.

Cause it's not, and you're wrong.

(07-27-2022, 04:02 PM)flsprtsgod Wrote: "Pressure" is about the most subjective stat in football behind only "Tackles."

I rarely agree with you, but this is basically what I was trying to explain above. 

If rusher A gets unblocked and runs through a gap immediately and the qb throws the ball away.. that counts as a qb pressure.
if rusher B gets blocked, but then gets around his guy and the qb held the ball long enough and then he throws a completion with said rusher getting close it also counts as a pressure.


But even tho NYCJAGS seems to think it's the same difference, it's really not.

See? Doesn't it feel good to be right for a change?  Big Grin
“An empty vessel makes the loudest sound, so they that have the least wit are the greatest babblers.”. - Plato

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#55

This thread seems awfully familiar hmmmmmm
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#56

(07-28-2022, 08:44 AM)StrayaJag Wrote: This thread seems awfully familiar hmmmmmm

Don't, please don't.
"Treyvon Wallet is elite run defender and better overall than Aidan Hutchinson" 11/11/23
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#57

(07-26-2022, 01:56 AM)snaxdelrio Wrote: One more than Hutchinson

^^^this
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#58
(This post was last modified: 07-28-2022, 11:17 AM by Bullseye.)

https://twitter.com/APMarkLong/status/15...v3RY6RLTcg

Not good.

https://twitter.com/jordandelugo/status/...v3RY6RLTcg

https://twitter.com/Jaguars/status/15526...v3RY6RLTcg
 

Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!





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#59

https://twitter.com/jordandelugo/status/...v3RY6RLTcg
 

Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!





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