Oh i understand.   He literally said the same thing that's been said.  Rare occasion do you take a lesser rated player.  What the few needs drafters on here do is far from what Baalke is talking about.

Let's say we are on the clock at #24

The Jags top rated available players in order of the grades our F.O. and staff have given them are:

WR - Zay Flowers
WR - Jordan Addison
TE - Dalton Kincaid
OT - Darnell Wright
DT - Calijah Kancey

Those are your best grades available at #24 in order ^

Who should the Jaguars draft?

Weight is the guy you have pick in that case. We need an excellent 3rd tackle who can be a legitimate starter.


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Fix the O-Line!

Wright would be a no brainer.

My preference is:

Wright
Nolan Smith
Mayer

If any of them are available

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gotta say I'm a bit weirded out by taking yet another pass rush guy in the first. Does that mean we are moving on from Allen? Giving up on Walker? Using a first to replace Arden Key?

I trust the process, but it's not a position that will wow me if that's the pick.

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I'd probably say Kincaid out of those 5, but I'd also entertain most any reasonable offer to move off the pick. Kincaid gives us options w/r/t Engram's deal, and we're going to need some affordable weapons around TLaw as his bill comes due. WR is all but off my board entirely, we are as close to full as we can be roster-wise.

Losing Smoot and Key adds up to a really big number of snaps to replace.
Depending on who falls or doesn't fall - expect a vet signing after the draft as well
Adding talent gives the team leverage in a negotiation with Allen should they seek to retain
They fully expect Walker to develop
You can't really have enough of these guys
Walker will likely play more snaps inside this year

Yeah, if we go pass rush early this is the first thing I thought.

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Hell no.  I did not say that!  How in the world did you get that from what I wrote?  Re-read what I said.  I said, according to Baalke, it is rare that a GM has to make a choice between need and value.  

So, when we argue about need vs BPA, we are arguing about a situation that is rare, at least according to Baalke.  So if you believe him, and I have no reason not to, we should probably dispense with these arguments about "need vs BPA."  It just doesn't happen often enough to worry about it.

I think Baalke is confirming the "needs" position.  BAP people believe that you always take the player rated as BAP regardless of need.  Baalke said that it is very rare that he doesn't draft a need.  What are the odds that the BAP and the biggest need are the same with pick after pick after pick after pick?  Baalke saying that he rarely has to make a choice is clearly because he's willing to bypass the BAP for a need if it is close.  That's the argument of the needs people on here.

it's the overlap. When you are up to pick, imagine 5 guys at the top of your board, all similarly graded. One is a QB, one is an RB, one is a WR, and two are DB. If the grades are similar, you're either placing more weight on positional value, your need, the trade offered by a competitor or bias against the players' alma mater to determine who you take. So yeah, if you are thin at WR, you take the WR here. If you need pass coverage, you take a DB. If the RB is graded much higher than the other four, you either take the RB (value over need), trade the pick (recoup value when need is lacking) or lose the value of the pick by taking someone lower on your board (need over value).

Of course it's rare you don't take need. If the top 3 guys on your board are QB, you're either wasting the pick by taking a QB we don't need, taking a lower-rated player that suits a need, or moving off the pick to a later spot where the players we believe need and value overlap better are likely to still be available.

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Edge Myles Murphy, based on how I think the most likely outcome for the top 23 picks. Murphy would provide the Jaguars with depth, and a long term starter, if Josh Allen is playing elsewhere in the 2024 season. The Clemson connection would grow in Duval with Murphy.

If Nolan Smith and Luke Van Ness are available at # 24, I think both would be selected in that order, ahead of Murphy. I don't think either will be available.

If all 3 players are taken by Pick # 24 and the Jags remain in that spot, CB Cam Smith would be my projection. CB DJ Turner and CB Cam Phillips are candidates to be the Jags first selection if they trade down to Round 2. The Jags have less noticeable needs than I can recall in a very long time. Another Edge Rusher, Nickel CB, and another Guard to compete at LG are the only needs that jump out. If G Cody Mauch is available with Pick # 56 in Round 2, he seems like a prime candidate to be the selection.

Additional thought:

The suspension of Cam Robinson makes Offensive Tackle a position the Jags will need to address in a significant manner. A trade down from Pick # 24 to address this need seems like a realistic possibility. Anton Harrison, Matthew Bergeron, and /or Dewand Jones could be on the Jags radar screen, beginning in the latter part of Round 1.

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Edge Myles Murphy, based on how I think the most likely outcome for the top 23 picks.  Murphy would provide the Jaguars with depth, and a long term starter, if Josh Allen is playing elsewhere in the 2024 season.  The Clemson connection would grow in Duval with Murphy.

If Nolan Smith and Luke Van Ness are available at # 24, I think both would be selected in that order, ahead of Murphy.  I don't think either will be available.

If all 3 players are taken by Pick # 24 and the Jags remain in that spot, CB Cam Smith would be my projection.  CB DJ Turner and CB Cam Phillips are candidates to be the Jags first selection if they trade down to Round 2.  The Jags have less noticeable needs than I can recall in a very long time.  Another Edge Rusher, Nickel CB, and another Guard to compete at LG are the only needs that jump out.  If G Cody Mauch is available with Pick # 56 in Round 2, he seems like a prime candidate to be the selection.

Additional thought:

The suspension of Cam Robinson makes Offensive Tackle a position the Jags will need to address in a significant manner.  A trade down from Pick # 24 to address this need seems like a realistic possibility.  Anton Harrison, Matthew Bergeron, and  /or Dewand Jones could be on the Jags radar screen, beginning in the latter part of Round 1.

Your additional thought was an accurate one!

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Edge Myles Murphy, based on how I think the most likely outcome for the top 23 picks.  Murphy would provide the Jaguars with depth, and a long term starter, if Josh Allen is playing elsewhere in the 2024 season.  The Clemson connection would grow in Duval with Murphy.

If Nolan Smith and Luke Van Ness are available at # 24, I think both would be selected in that order, ahead of Murphy.  I don't think either will be available.

If all 3 players are taken by Pick # 24 and the Jags remain in that spot, CB Cam Smith would be my projection.  CB DJ Turner and CB Cam Phillips are candidates to be the Jags first selection if they trade down to Round 2.  The Jags have less noticeable needs than I can recall in a very long time.  Another Edge Rusher, Nickel CB, and another Guard to compete at LG are the only needs that jump out.  If G Cody Mauch is available with Pick # 56 in Round 2, he seems like a prime candidate to be the selection.

Additional thought:

The suspension of Cam Robinson makes Offensive Tackle a position the Jags will need to address in a significant manner.  A trade down from Pick # 24 to address this need seems like a realistic possibility.  Anton Harrison, Matthew Bergeron, and  /or Dewand Jones could be on the Jags radar screen, beginning in the latter part of Round 1.

What are your thoughts on your team's draft? I honestly liked what Detroit did.

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"What do I know of cultured ways, the gilt, the craft and the lie? I, who was born in a naked land and bred in the open sky. The subtle tongue, the sophist guile, they fail when the broadswords sing; Rush in and die, dogs - I was a man before I was a king."

Joey porter and Brian Branch, the two guys I wanted, have been awesome their rookie years.

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Joey porter and Brian Branch, the two guys I wanted, have been awesome their rookie years.

I wanted Porter, I thought he was the best corner in the draft, I just didn't think he would be there.  He has been very good

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Joey porter and Brian Branch, the two guys I wanted, have been awesome their rookie years.

I think one needs to factor in that the Lion and Steelers have good pass rushes so BB and JPJ don't have to maintain coverage on the WRs for as long as the Jags DBs do.  We could be sitting here stating either is average or below average if they were on the Jags D

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The Lions had the draft we really needed in my opinion. They really landed four starters with their first four selections. Good, QUALITY starters at that. Gibbs is averaging 5.1 YPC. Nearing 1,000 yards of total offense already with a late start to the season. LaPorta is easily playing like he'll be another Kittle or Andrew's type at this pace in his young career.

Campbell and Branch have stepped in nicely on a defense that's 10th in YPG allowed. Outside of the Seattle and Baltimore game they've really played well enough as a unit. Those two guys will only be better and play off experience will help amp up the expectations moving forward in year two and beyond with the game slowing down a bit.

Really one hell of a job up there by Detroit though. As I watched that draft unfold, it felt like they were not only playing it safe, but, they were trusting their board, they knew who and what they were going into that draft and they knew exactly what they needed to get better instantly. Mission accomplished.

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"What do I know of cultured ways, the gilt, the craft and the lie? I, who was born in a naked land and bred in the open sky. The subtle tongue, the sophist guile, they fail when the broadswords sing; Rush in and die, dogs - I was a man before I was a king."

I expect we’ll have a bottom 4 of the round draft position. But if it were me, I’d push my chips to the middle of the table and draft Van Pran, the center out of Georgia. Trevor needs his Mike Webster or Jason Kelce.

Beyond that, we need to get IOL depth, a difference maker on the IDL, another edge rusher, a slot corner, and depth at LB. We don’t have anyone I trust behind Foye and Devin.

We can say more accurately about some of the draft needs after free agency obviously.

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Fix the O-Line!

The Lions had the draft we really needed in my opinion. They really landed four starters with their first four selections. Good, QUALITY starters at that. Gibbs is averaging 5.1 YPC. Nearing 1,000 yards of total offense already with a late start to the season. LaPorta is easily playing like he'll be another Kittle or Andrew's type at this pace in his young career.

Campbell and Branch have stepped in nicely on a defense that's 10th in YPG allowed. Outside of the Seattle and Baltimore game they've really played well enough as a unit. Those two guys will only be better and play off experience will help amp up the expectations moving forward in year two and beyond with the game slowing down a bit.

Really one hell of a job up there by Detroit though. As I watched that draft unfold, it felt like they were not only playing it safe, but, they were trusting their board, they knew who and what they were going into that draft and they knew exactly what they needed to get better instantly. Mission accomplished.

Putting on a clinic tonight.

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"What do I know of cultured ways, the gilt, the craft and the lie? I, who was born in a naked land and bred in the open sky. The subtle tongue, the sophist guile, they fail when the broadswords sing; Rush in and die, dogs - I was a man before I was a king."