A 2-3 year extension added onto his current contract, valued around the 10-15 mark for Qb pay i'm fine with. I'd say longer, but I can't imagine he would want that.

A 5+ year extension that makes him the highest paid Qb is entirely premature. I'd rather 5th year option and then tag him until he starts consistently playing well. Obviously he's not good enough to overcome a weak roster so giving him a ton of money and preventing us from improving the team isn't helping us.

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Without question you pay him. The real question is do you wait a year, use the money we have this year for Allen, maybe Rid, and buying an OL and then sign Trevor next year when the cap goes up $35+ mil and basically just use that increase to pay him. I say option 2.

Either way, you pay him and don't think twice.

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IT WAS ALWAYS THE JAGS

Why do people think he and his agent would be stupid enough to sign an early long term cheaper extension now?

He knows he can command a lot more money with another year or two of experience.

Both sides have to agree on a deal. You can't just say sign him on the cheap now why we can. He wouldn't accept such an offer.

Because he could break his neck tomorrow and lose out on that money. And we're not talking "on the cheap", it's just less than would be offered the next year, but that's the case every year no matter when he signs.

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“An empty vessel makes the loudest sound, so they that have the least wit are the greatest babblers.”. - Plato

Many including myself thought that after this season it would be time to give Lawrence that huge extension. To me it is a big no for me at the present time.

Lawrence has all the potential and talent in the world. If we are being unbiased, it has not translated on the field. In 15 games he has 19 passing TDs in 15 games. Lawrence also leads the league in turnovers in 19.  I know that many of the Lawrence defense force points out because "x receiver drops balls is why his numbers are low." I call BS on that. Every team in the NFL have receivers that drops balls. I watch redzone and see it all the times. It is part of the game.  I still see a QB who lacks a soft touch when throwing the ball, a QB who misses receivers much more than elite QBs do, Miss open receivers to the point the broadcasters during the game are calling him out on it, just overall a bi-polar QB level of play.  For every positive trait of Lawrence I can give you a negative. Reminds me of Favre who at one time had the most TDs but also had the most INT's.  I do not see in Lawrence that Dawg of a QB who can carry a team. Could he become that guy?  Sure but not at the present time.

So the Question: Do you feel comfortable investing around 30-50% of the team's yearly salary cap on Trevor Lawrence?

No. He's a great talent. The franchise has started winning over the last two years now since we got the first year out of the way. With that said, the turnovers need to be significantly cut back on. Again, not blind. We see it on a weekly basis and it's tough sledding for him, but, when the ball is in your hands? You have to hold onto it and you have to make better decisions. 

If that means you have to be check down Charlie a few times here and there? Do it. If that means you need to chuck it out of bounds and target the Gatorade tubs? Do it. Nobody's going to grill you for playing it safe, living to see another series and giving your opponents a longer field of possession to work with. 

I mentioned this already in another thread, as far as where I would price him in the QB market and where he should be at in my opinion, some would argue it's probably being generous because he doesn't have nearly as many as TD's to offset his turnovers, but, I think ideally, you give him the same contract that Buffalo gave Josh Allen just two, three years ago.

This would place him at around the 10th - 11th mark for QB's. Which is fine in my opinion. This would put him over $200M overall, but, I would keep him under Allen's mark which I think is around $225M. I would incentive the hell out of it. Meaning, you give me a season where you turn the football over maybe less than 10 times in total, or, you give me a stupid good TD:TO ratio? Say, 35 to 15? We'll kick you some more cash. 

Going into year four, this team still needs to do a lot of things to set him up for success. Starting in the trenches naturally. Then looking to see if they can add some additional receiving options around him once the trench has been fixed to some extent.

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"What do I know of cultured ways, the gilt, the craft and the lie? I, who was born in a naked land and bred in the open sky. The subtle tongue, the sophist guile, they fail when the broadswords sing; Rush in and die, dogs - I was a man before I was a king."

I think instead of saying, "I would give him this..." everyone should say, "I would offer him this..." and then lay out what happens when he turns it down.

I also think we should keep in mind, even if we sign him to the, for example, 3rd highest contract in the league, in a year or two it will have moved way down the list, because new contracts are being signed all the time, and salaries are going up.  For example, remember when everyone was talking about Christian Kirk's contract?  There are now 14 WRs who are paid more than he is.

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I think instead of saying, "I would give him this..." everyone should say, "I would offer him this..." and then lay out what happens when he turns it down.

I also think we should keep in mind, even if we sign him to the, for example, 3rd highest contract in the league, in a year or two it will have moved way down the list, because new contracts are being signed all the time, and salaries are going up.  For example, remember when everyone was talking about Christian Kirk's contract?  There are now 14 WRs who are paid more than he is.

Kirks contract was pretty large for his position, but wasn't a back breaker for the cap. a top 3 QB contract will highly limit what we can do to further improve the team going forward. And T law, while I want him to stay here does not deserve nor earned that big of a contract.

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I think instead of saying, "I would give him this..." everyone should say, "I would offer him this..." and then lay out what happens when he turns it down.

I also think we should keep in mind, even if we sign him to the, for example, 3rd highest contract in the league, in a year or two it will have moved way down the list, because new contracts are being signed all the time, and salaries are going up.  For example, remember when everyone was talking about Christian Kirk's contract?  There are now 14 WRs who are paid more than he is.

Kirks contract was pretty large for his position, but wasn't a back breaker for the cap. a top 3 QB contract will highly limit what we can do to further improve the team going forward. And T law, while I want him to stay here does not deserve nor earned that big of a contract.

And so what do you do when you offer him what you think he deserves, and he turns it down?

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Exercise 5th year option
Play out year 4
Work on long term contract starting spring 2025 with signing by end of training camp

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Kirks contract was pretty large for his position, but wasn't a back breaker for the cap. a top 3 QB contract will highly limit what we can do to further improve the team going forward. And T law, while I want him to stay here does not deserve nor earned that big of a contract.

And so what do you do when you offer him what you think he deserves, and he turns it down?

You come to an agreement that pleases him for the time being, but, you make it clear to him that with that cost comes a heavier burden that will not enable them to be overly picky and choosey down the road when free agency opens up.

To be blunt, it's hard to compile a good football team with 21 starters if the QB is being paid 50% of the team's salary cap. If he wants to be rich and be a loser on the football field? Knock yourself out. 

I would just recap how awful it's been this year with no protection and no running game and he can decide what his legacy will be best remembered as here in Jacksonville.

---

"What do I know of cultured ways, the gilt, the craft and the lie? I, who was born in a naked land and bred in the open sky. The subtle tongue, the sophist guile, they fail when the broadswords sing; Rush in and die, dogs - I was a man before I was a king."

And so what do you do when you offer him what you think he deserves, and he turns it down?

You come to an agreement that pleases him for the time being, but, you make it clear to him that with that cost comes a heavier burden that will not enable them to be overly picky and choosey down the road when free agency opens up.

To be blunt, it's hard to compile a good football team with 21 starters if the QB is being paid 50% of the team's salary cap. If he wants to be rich and be a loser on the football field? Knock yourself out. 

I would just recap how awful it's been this year with no protection and no running game and he can decide what his legacy will be best remembered as here in Jacksonville.

50% of the team's salary cap would be 112 million dollars a year!  It's not going to be 50%!

What agreement do you think would "please him for the time being?"  And what do you do when he turns that down, because he wants to be paid like a franchise QB?

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And so what do you do when you offer him what you think he deserves, and he turns it down?

You come to an agreement that pleases him for the time being, but, you make it clear to him that with that cost comes a heavier burden that will not enable them to be overly picky and choosey down the road when free agency opens up.

To be blunt, it's hard to compile a good football team with 21 starters if the QB is being paid 50% of the team's salary cap. If he wants to be rich and be a loser on the football field? Knock yourself out. 

I would just recap how awful it's been this year with no protection and no running game and he can decide what his legacy will be best remembered as here in Jacksonville.

The top QBs are making between 14-19% of the team's cap annually.
Not 50%

All they need to do in order to battle his cap hit is to make it a long term deal. That way they can make his cap hit 20-25% in one year when they are not in need of several contracts - and 10-15% in a year they need space. More years means more freedom to move the money around. 

Low balling the guy you expect to be the face of the franchise is not a good way to build the good faith required to keep this culture and leadership model Pederson has developed in Jax.

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You come to an agreement that pleases him for the time being, but, you make it clear to him that with that cost comes a heavier burden that will not enable them to be overly picky and choosey down the road when free agency opens up.

To be blunt, it's hard to compile a good football team with 21 starters if the QB is being paid 50% of the team's salary cap. If he wants to be rich and be a loser on the football field? Knock yourself out. 

I would just recap how awful it's been this year with no protection and no running game and he can decide what his legacy will be best remembered as here in Jacksonville.

50% of the team's salary cap would be 112 million dollars a year!  It's not going to be 50%!

What agreement do you think would "please him for the time being?"  And what do you do when he turns that down, because he wants to be paid like a franchise QB?

I think he would be fine with a top 12 contract. That's why I keep going back to the Josh Allen deal that Buffalo gave him. Lawrence is good, not great. He still has to overcome some of his own inadequacies. I am not quite ready nor comfortable putting him on a pedestal just yet. 

The turnovers are still an issue. Whether it's fumbling it, forcing it or a miscommunication. It's on his stat sheet. Him playing hero ball most of the time is an issue. I can only give the kid so much slack and excuses three years into his career. First year was a scratch. Second year was a revelation. Third year was a revelation in a bad way. 

He's not capable of carrying this offense on his own yet. It's not all on him. That's on the front office and the coaching staff to give him some breathing room. Which they failed in doing so during the 2023 off season. The 2024 off season has to be a massive step in the right direction. His extension is probably not something I am ultimately worried about right now. 

There's time to see what he can do. I think this off season needs to be more about:

1. Resigning Josh Allen on defense.

2. Bolstering the offensive line. Starting with LT between restructuring Robinson's contract or cutting him. The LG position is still an issue that's up in the air pending Ezra's decisions. Fortner needs to be on the bench. Scherff is not the answer at RG. 

3. Bolstering the defensive line. You have Allen. You have Walker. That's it. We're HOPING Hamilton and Smoot will be better next year. I still think you have to look at signing up or drafting interior defensive lineman and bigger ends that can set the edge for Allen and Walker to blitz even more inside. 

Lawrence's contract can wait in my opinion. Let's not rush this for the moment. Let's see how the rest of this year plays out, which, we may or may not make the play-off's, and then, let's see how the team responds next year with another off season to fix these issues above. 

THEN we can visit his contract situation in 2025.

---

"What do I know of cultured ways, the gilt, the craft and the lie? I, who was born in a naked land and bred in the open sky. The subtle tongue, the sophist guile, they fail when the broadswords sing; Rush in and die, dogs - I was a man before I was a king."

This will be Josh Allen all over again.

Hold off on paying Lawrence now and you’ll end but paying far more than that next year.

---

This will be Josh Allen all over again.

Hold off on paying Lawrence now and you’ll end but paying far more than that next year.

Would rather pay after the fact. Gives you a small window of opportunity to add more pieces around him. He's getting paid regardless. Nobody's going to give a [BLEEP] if Lawrence is making bookoo money when he's advancing this team into an AFC Championship appearance / win and then some. 

They really do need to get this offensive line fixed though. Cannot stress it enough. We'll end up the like the Bengals with Burrow. A nice car sitting in the garage collecting dust because it can't run.

---

"What do I know of cultured ways, the gilt, the craft and the lie? I, who was born in a naked land and bred in the open sky. The subtle tongue, the sophist guile, they fail when the broadswords sing; Rush in and die, dogs - I was a man before I was a king."

This will be Josh Allen all over again.

Hold off on paying Lawrence now and you’ll end but paying far more than that next year.

in both Josh and Trevor's circumstances
Agents would advise to play it out
and players can take it as the team not believing in them to improve and just paying for past performance and not putting a high enough value on future growth

Players side are playing the risk reward game too. Take the money now or risk it for a bigger payday while youre already under contract

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50% of the team's salary cap would be 112 million dollars a year!  It's not going to be 50%!

What agreement do you think would "please him for the time being?"  And what do you do when he turns that down, because he wants to be paid like a franchise QB?

I think he would be fine with a top 12 contract. That's why I keep going back to the Josh Allen deal that Buffalo gave him. Lawrence is good, not great. He still has to overcome some of his own inadequacies. I am not quite ready nor comfortable putting him on a pedestal just yet. 

The turnovers are still an issue. Whether it's fumbling it, forcing it or a miscommunication. It's on his stat sheet. Him playing hero ball most of the time is an issue. I can only give the kid so much slack and excuses three years into his career. First year was a scratch. Second year was a revelation. Third year was a revelation in a bad way. 

He's not capable of carrying this offense on his own yet. It's not all on him. That's on the front office and the coaching staff to give him some breathing room. Which they failed in doing so during the 2023 off season. The 2024 off season has to be a massive step in the right direction. His extension is probably not something I am ultimately worried about right now. 

There's time to see what he can do. I think this off season needs to be more about:

1. Resigning Josh Allen on defense.

2. Bolstering the offensive line. Starting with LT between restructuring Robinson's contract or cutting him. The LG position is still an issue that's up in the air pending Ezra's decisions. Fortner needs to be on the bench. Scherff is not the answer at RG. 

3. Bolstering the defensive line. You have Allen. You have Walker. That's it. We're HOPING Hamilton and Smoot will be better next year. I still think you have to look at signing up or drafting interior defensive lineman and bigger ends that can set the edge for Allen and Walker to blitz even more inside. 

Lawrence's contract can wait in my opinion. Let's not rush this for the moment. Let's see how the rest of this year plays out, which, we may or may not make the play-off's, and then, let's see how the team responds next year with another off season to fix these issues above. 

THEN we can visit his contract situation in 2025.

All of your points make perfect sense, but unfortunately really don't matter much at the end of the day.

Is Justin Herbert a great QB who can overcome problems around him and carry his team to the playoffs?
No.

But he just got paid big time. 

The reality of the QB market and the number of QB needy teams that are always out there is what will determine Lawrence's value. And if the Jags brass have faith they can get TL the pieces to compete for the division annually they are going to pay him thusly IMO. 

We've seen this scenario happen with a dozen imperfect QBs dating all the way back to Derek Carr's second contract. 
(there were others prior to that - but it is more regularly occurring in the years since then) 

If the Jags brass and TL+agent have a conversation where both sides are willing to give it a year to marinate, that is fine, but I believe the likelihood is that it ends up costing more in the long run that way.

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Who cares if other teams (Browns, Giants) are stupid enought to overpay for average talent? 5 years, 45 mil per.  Based on his overall play so far, this is fair.  Anything more, and we wont be able to provide proper resources to support him, which will cause him to perform below his pay grade.  Weve already seen that this year without a big contract in place.

I think 45 would be my max. I would try to get him under 40, or even closer to 35 aav. He's been good, but he has some serious issues, more so than even a guy like Allen, who also has a turnover problems. At least Allen puts up numbers and if he defense wasn't a patched up mess, would have ran away with the AFC East this year.

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I think he would be fine with a top 12 contract. That's why I keep going back to the Josh Allen deal that Buffalo gave him. Lawrence is good, not great. He still has to overcome some of his own inadequacies. I am not quite ready nor comfortable putting him on a pedestal just yet. 

The turnovers are still an issue. Whether it's fumbling it, forcing it or a miscommunication. It's on his stat sheet. Him playing hero ball most of the time is an issue. I can only give the kid so much slack and excuses three years into his career. First year was a scratch. Second year was a revelation. Third year was a revelation in a bad way. 

He's not capable of carrying this offense on his own yet. It's not all on him. That's on the front office and the coaching staff to give him some breathing room. Which they failed in doing so during the 2023 off season. The 2024 off season has to be a massive step in the right direction. His extension is probably not something I am ultimately worried about right now. 

There's time to see what he can do. I think this off season needs to be more about:

1. Resigning Josh Allen on defense.

2. Bolstering the offensive line. Starting with LT between restructuring Robinson's contract or cutting him. The LG position is still an issue that's up in the air pending Ezra's decisions. Fortner needs to be on the bench. Scherff is not the answer at RG. 

3. Bolstering the defensive line. You have Allen. You have Walker. That's it. We're HOPING Hamilton and Smoot will be better next year. I still think you have to look at signing up or drafting interior defensive lineman and bigger ends that can set the edge for Allen and Walker to blitz even more inside. 

Lawrence's contract can wait in my opinion. Let's not rush this for the moment. Let's see how the rest of this year plays out, which, we may or may not make the play-off's, and then, let's see how the team responds next year with another off season to fix these issues above. 

THEN we can visit his contract situation in 2025.

All of your points make perfect sense, but unfortunately really don't matter much at the end of the day.

Is Justin Herbert a great QB who can overcome problems around him and carry his team to the playoffs?
No.

But he just got paid big time. 

The reality of the QB market and the number of QB needy teams that are always out there is what will determine Lawrence's value. And if the Jags brass have faith they can get TL the pieces to compete for the division annually they are going to pay him thusly IMO. 

We've seen this scenario happen with a dozen imperfect QBs dating all the way back to Derek Carr's second contract. 
(there were others prior to that - but it is more regularly occurring in the years since then) 

If the Jags brass and TL+agent have a conversation where both sides are willing to give it a year to marinate, that is fine, but I believe the likelihood is that it ends up costing more in the long run that way.

I am fine with either outcome. As long as it results in the team's success and more importantly, consistent success. I think we're capable of being a team like Kansas City or Buffalo, where, you're looking at these barely double digit win seasons as the minimum standard with competing for the top seed or second seed in the AFC annually as the highest standard.

Even when this team and those teams are in a slump, there's still a confidence that they carry and that you can see from time to time even when they jump in and out of the fire. Once you punch your ticket to the play-off's anything goes. 

I just don't want this team to end up like the clots, commanders or Bengals where they all inherited a great gift at the position, and, a combination of coaching mistakes and front office philosophies resulted in them squandering said gifts. Bengals still have time of course. But, it doesn't get any easier when your franchise QB is out for the year and you know we're fixing to lose a vital skill position player or two with the market coming up. 

Hell, who knows? Maybe Trevor doesn't want to stay here and try his luck in a larger market. You just never know.

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"What do I know of cultured ways, the gilt, the craft and the lie? I, who was born in a naked land and bred in the open sky. The subtle tongue, the sophist guile, they fail when the broadswords sing; Rush in and die, dogs - I was a man before I was a king."

Why would Trevor take a deal this year?
I would think he would be advised to wait till next year.

Your cap impact would be low in 2024 allowing for more additions to the team.
A big opportunity for top 3 QB contract offer after the 2024 season, or even in season

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Why would Trevor take a deal this year?
I would think he would be advised to wait till next year.

Your cap impact would be low in 2024 allowing for more additions to the team.
A big opportunity for top 3 QB contract offer after the 2024 season, or even in season

Exactly. "Keep your money, boys, get me about three lineman up front between March and April that can actually block for me, open up the ground game so this offense can open up some more and then we can revisit this again in 2025, you'll be opening up the bank vault for me instead of that checkbook". 

And that's FINE by me. Perfectly FINE. Again, nobody will bat an eye about his contract if they're able to get the offensive line fixed before that payout is due and the team is clearly better than the 9 - 8 standard they've been over the last two years. 

It's been the common denominator now as to why this team can't go any further two years in a row. Let's get that resolved while we can.

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"What do I know of cultured ways, the gilt, the craft and the lie? I, who was born in a naked land and bred in the open sky. The subtle tongue, the sophist guile, they fail when the broadswords sing; Rush in and die, dogs - I was a man before I was a king."