Off season arguments at its finest

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I usually shy away from specific player names for that reason. (It is a personal choice) As fans we are at a disadvantage not having all the information. We don't see medical records, spend as much time watching tape, investigating backgrounds or interviewing the players.  Generally, I use 4 general policies on my draft opinions.

1. Never trade up in the draft. There has never been ONE player that anyone can point to that enabled a team to win the Superbowl.
2 Always trade down and acquire more picks if you can get your next target. Draft picks are the life blood of an organization's ability to continually be competitive. Last year what Baalkie did with our first round pick was opportunistic perfection. Not his fault no one would let him trade up. I wonder if he tried to package some to trade to some cap strapped team for the next year's pick.
3. Level of competition matters. We once had a GM that didn't understand that. Most teams (there are notable exceptions) have maybe one or two guys that will get drafted. What players can do in college may not translate once they face the higher level of competition at the professional level.
4. If a player has injury issues on the college level then odds are very good he will most definitely at the professional level. The hits are much harder and there are no cupcakes to rest up on.  It truly is a grind. Now one has to take into account the conference on this one as a couple do has an elevated grind in comparison to others.

You realize the Chiefs traded up for Mahomes right?

The fools!

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This is just my opinion and a general summary of how I look at the draft. I am sure others think differently. They are generalizations that to me appear to reflect what pretty successful people have done over the years. They are not absolute. (I am not a Sith)

I hate trading up because it cost draft capital. Also, despite it working out it generally the odds favor it not being incremental enough to justify the capital expense from where I sit. You only get 7 picks per year and based on any success rate chart for draftees you limit your chances. There are notable exceptions, but for everyone of those there are more where it was not a good idea. Mahomes was a good deal,  but what about Trey Lance? Call me a bit risk adverse, just how I see it.  Bravo to those who pull it off. Link below is for QB's take a look and see the rate. It is about the same for other positions too.

https://www.espn.com/nfl/draft2021/story...uarterback

Trading down. The key phrase here is "if you can get your next target".  How you establish that can be quite diverse. You have shown a few examples. Obviously you do it to acquire more resources.

How would you go about this?

So that's the conundrum. The darft is a gamble, period.

Trading up amplifies the risk, though, because you're raising the stakes on what you already had on the table. If it pays off, you rake in your winnings. If it does not, you're often left scrambling to try to recoup the loss elsewhere. Think of how many times we (and other franchises) have swung and missed on prospective QB, OT, etc.

Trading back is also risk. You give up the chance to take a player who may be more talented, but try to reduce the risk by gaining more resources. You still have risk that the guy you want doesn't fall that far back, and either you have to trade back up to get them or settle for another player. 

As with anything, the move is a calculation of risk. How much is too much to keep you from moving up? How much is enough to move you back from where you are scheduled to pick? What player is worth overpaying in the now to enjoy rewards later?

Lance is the prime example of why you have to be sure if you are making that bold of a jump. RGIII was a similar cost, but looked to be worth the price until he destroyed his knee. The Vikes move last week was only the first of their trades this year, I'm pretty sure. Bold move, it better pay off or the loss will impact the franchise for several years. What if the tinhorns traded away a chance at a stellar player, not even knowing who was left on the board? Calculated risk.

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I think Cousins if healthy could of won it with KC these past couple years.  Mahomes is very good but KC is loaded with multiple HOF's other than Kermit and Reid is an offensive mastermind.

Did you just [BLEEP] say Kirk Cousins could have won the last two SBs with KC?  Chris Jones and Kelce are the only HOFers Mahomes currently plays with.

Patrick Mahomes is a mutant.  He is the best QB I have ever seen play personally because he creates so many opportunities for himself with an unorthodox play style.

Maybe the Chiefs go deep into the playoffs with Kirk.  But they aren't winning it all.

Of course they could have won the SB with Cousins.  In fact, KC may have 1 more SB win because Mahomes played bad in their SB loss to the Bucs so Cousins would have won them that one.   I'll play along.  The Patriots  could have won more than 6 SBs with Cousins in the place of Brady.

Signed,
Kurt Cousin's wife

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Cousins is 12-20 in primetime games but sure…. He would have won a SB….

Definitely, that's because 6:30pm (ET) is not quite considered prime time for NFL games so he would have been in the clear.

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Cousins is 12-20 in primetime games but sure…. He would have won a SB….

Definitely, that's because 6:30pm (ET) is not quite considered prime time for NFL games so he would have been in the clear.

You are a treasure.

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This can only mean Baalke will screw up the draft... there is no way he has good FA signings and a good draft.

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"Treyvon Wallet is elite run defender and better overall than Aidan Hutchinson" 11/11/23

Armstead says one of the biggest reasons he signed with the Jags is Trent Baalke.

https://www.si.com/nfl/jaguars/news/arik...isco-49ers

“It all happened very quickly. My free agency was a little delayed, and so on Wednesday when I was officially released, I then had the opportunity to talk to some teams. It all happened very fast and me and Trent [Baalke] have a great relationship," Armstead told local media on Monday. "He drafted me nine years ago back in San Francisco and we were able to talk and discuss my situation and where I’m at in my career. I felt like this was the best decision for me and my family. I’m very excited to get it going.”

"We’ve had a great relationship, being with him for those few years and drafting me, getting to know me as a younger guy. Then, him watching me from afar when we played the Jags, I would always see him right there pregame. We would talk and the sentiment of how proud he was of me and how my career has gone. He felt like he made a good decision then and he feels like he’s making a good decision now. Having that someone that you’re comfortable with and that you’ve been around is going to make this transition much smoother.”

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Armstead says one of the biggest reasons he signed with the Jags is Trent Baalke. 

https://www.si.com/nfl/jaguars/news/arik...isco-49ers

“It all happened very quickly. My free agency was a little delayed, and so on Wednesday when I was officially released, I then had the opportunity to talk to some teams. It all happened very fast and me and Trent [Baalke] have a great relationship," Armstead told local media on Monday. "He drafted me nine years ago back in San Francisco and we were able to talk and discuss my situation and where I’m at in my career. I felt like this was the best decision for me and my family. I’m very excited to get it going.”

"We’ve had a great relationship, being with him for those few years and drafting me, getting to know me as a younger guy. Then, him watching me from afar when we played the Jags, I would always see him right there pregame. We would talk and the sentiment of how proud he was of me and how my career has gone. He felt like he made a good decision then and he feels like he’s making a good decision now. Having that someone that you’re comfortable with and that you’ve been around is going to make this transition much smoother.”

ABC - Always be closing.
First rule of salesmanship.

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https://twitter.com/spotrac/status/17704...07974?s=20

Interesting structure to the deal keeping the hit ultra low this year to keep some cap available.  They must be planning something else because Allen's looming deal will almost certainly create some space this year as well.

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He is gonna do wonders for our pass rush

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I also think that if I had to choose between Armstead and Ridley, I take Armstead, absolutely.   It would be nice to have Ridley, but what this team really needs is to run the ball better and play better defense.  Offensive line, defensive line, cornerback.  So, Mitch Morris, Arik Armstead, so far so good.  Now spend the #17 pick on a cornerback.  That's what I would do.

Our passing attack will work 100% better if we run the ball better and play better defense.  It's ridiculous to be in 2nd and 12 so many times like we were last year.  Or be unable to stop someone when we had to.

CB, G/C, and DT have to be your first three draft picks.  CB first unless we trade down.

Drafting for needs is good…..as long as you’re needing the best available player. It always was, and always will be, the best player available.

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He is gonna do wonders for our pass rush

Agreed. 

It's interesting that Baalke has efficiently addressed 3 major needs in free agency (maybe even 4 if Savage becomes an impactful starter at safety)  all of this after everyone spent two months bashing the crap out of him. 

 He and Doug have drafted pretty well minus a few head scratchers and free agency has easily been above average during his tenure. If a couple of last year's 2nd-4th round picks prove impactful this season my perception of this regime's drafting will improve.

Of the needs addressed thus far - I believe adding interior pressure on opposing QBs is the one he likely addressed the best as Armstead is the most proven commodity of the crop.  (Morse seems a very clear upgrade at center despite some inconsistency and Darby's skillset is very obviously a coverage scheme fit for our new DC) 

If the Jags draft a quality nose tackle to rotate with the uncertainty of Hamilton and his continuing "recovery," then this defensive front could be deadly IMO. 

Walker has fully come into his own as an edge rusher and the new DC seems almost certain to move him around. Allen is peaking after a career year.
Armstead is going to make both of their jobs easier by flushing QBs on a higher percentage of snaps than they have experienced thus far. 
Baalke even added some solid depth at DE/Edge in Trevis Gipson who by all accounts is a better option than Chaisson. 

I think the front DL and LB group is just one big run stuffing menace away from being a top notch unit.

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He is gonna do wonders for our pass rush

Agreed. 

It's interesting that Baalke has efficiently addressed 3 major needs in free agency (maybe even 4 if Savage becomes an impactful starter at safety)  all of this after everyone spent two months bashing the crap out of him. 

 He and Doug have drafted pretty well minus a few head scratchers and free agency has easily been above average during his tenure. If a couple of last year's 2nd-4th round picks prove impactful this season my perception of this regime's drafting will improve.

Of the needs addressed thus far - I believe adding interior pressure on opposing QBs is the one he likely addressed the best as Armstead is the most proven commodity of the crop.  (Morse seems a very clear upgrade at center despite some inconsistency and Darby's skillset is very obviously a coverage scheme fit for our new DC) 

If the Jags draft a quality nose tackle to rotate with the uncertainty of Hamilton and his continuing "recovery," then this defensive front could be deadly IMO. 

Walker has fully come into his own as an edge rusher and the new DC seems almost certain to move him around. Allen is peaking after a career year.
Armstead is going to make both of their jobs easier by flushing QBs on a higher percentage of snaps than they have experienced thus far. 
Baalke even added some solid depth at DE/Edge in Trevis Gipson who by all accounts is a better option than Chaisson. 

I think the front DL and LB group is just one big run stuffing menace away from being a top notch unit.

I would like to see a center drafted for long term goals. Some on here have pondered that a good center will make the interior better on both sides and I agree. Morse is a short term bandage, in my opinion. If only we could get another Brad Meester.

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Agreed. 

It's interesting that Baalke has efficiently addressed 3 major needs in free agency (maybe even 4 if Savage becomes an impactful starter at safety)  all of this after everyone spent two months bashing the crap out of him. 

 He and Doug have drafted pretty well minus a few head scratchers and free agency has easily been above average during his tenure. If a couple of last year's 2nd-4th round picks prove impactful this season my perception of this regime's drafting will improve.

Of the needs addressed thus far - I believe adding interior pressure on opposing QBs is the one he likely addressed the best as Armstead is the most proven commodity of the crop.  (Morse seems a very clear upgrade at center despite some inconsistency and Darby's skillset is very obviously a coverage scheme fit for our new DC) 

If the Jags draft a quality nose tackle to rotate with the uncertainty of Hamilton and his continuing "recovery," then this defensive front could be deadly IMO. 

Walker has fully come into his own as an edge rusher and the new DC seems almost certain to move him around. Allen is peaking after a career year.
Armstead is going to make both of their jobs easier by flushing QBs on a higher percentage of snaps than they have experienced thus far. 
Baalke even added some solid depth at DE/Edge in Trevis Gipson who by all accounts is a better option than Chaisson. 

I think the front DL and LB group is just one big run stuffing menace away from being a top notch unit.

I would like to see a center drafted for long term goals. Some on here have pondered that a good center will make the interior better on both sides and I agree. Morse is a short term bandage, in my opinion. If only we could get another Brad Meester.

I'd love that. 
A center that could be competition or depth at guard until we move on from Morse would be a great pick IMO.

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Agreed. 

It's interesting that Baalke has efficiently addressed 3 major needs in free agency (maybe even 4 if Savage becomes an impactful starter at safety)  all of this after everyone spent two months bashing the crap out of him. 

 He and Doug have drafted pretty well minus a few head scratchers and free agency has easily been above average during his tenure. If a couple of last year's 2nd-4th round picks prove impactful this season my perception of this regime's drafting will improve.

Of the needs addressed thus far - I believe adding interior pressure on opposing QBs is the one he likely addressed the best as Armstead is the most proven commodity of the crop.  (Morse seems a very clear upgrade at center despite some inconsistency and Darby's skillset is very obviously a coverage scheme fit for our new DC) 

If the Jags draft a quality nose tackle to rotate with the uncertainty of Hamilton and his continuing "recovery," then this defensive front could be deadly IMO. 

Walker has fully come into his own as an edge rusher and the new DC seems almost certain to move him around. Allen is peaking after a career year.
Armstead is going to make both of their jobs easier by flushing QBs on a higher percentage of snaps than they have experienced thus far. 
Baalke even added some solid depth at DE/Edge in Trevis Gipson who by all accounts is a better option than Chaisson. 

I think the front DL and LB group is just one big run stuffing menace away from being a top notch unit.

I would like to see a center drafted for long term goals. Some on here have pondered that a good center will make the interior better on both sides and I agree. Morse is a short term bandage, in my opinion. If only we could get another Brad Meester.

Need a long term RG and well being this is likely Scherffs last year here and another tackle being Cam and Little are on the last year of their contracts as well.  At least Morse is under contract for next year but yes we need some new blood on the oline.

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How do you like this play?

https://www.youtube.com/shorts/kUED3pv0mSM

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How do you like this play? 

https://www.youtube.com/shorts/kUED3pv0mSM

It's textbook use of strength and leverage all in one play. Impressive stuff and that's why he was coveted and brought in here. I am thankful he didn't end up in Houston. I STILL want them to draft his successor potentially. 

Whether that's a guy like Murphy or Newton in RD1 or waiting until RD2 to land Sweat or Orhorhoro. They need that in the trenches. Smart, physical and an understanding of how to use leverage.

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"What do I know of cultured ways, the gilt, the craft and the lie? I, who was born in a naked land and bred in the open sky. The subtle tongue, the sophist guile, they fail when the broadswords sing; Rush in and die, dogs - I was a man before I was a king."

How do you like this play? 

https://www.youtube.com/shorts/kUED3pv0mSM

Holy cow.

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You got a great player and a class act of a person in Arik Armstead. Know it is one year deal but hope it can be something much more.

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Ready for May Day and May Flowers!

You got a great player and a class act of a person in Arik Armstead. Know it is one year deal but hope it can be something much more.

It's a 3-year deal.

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