Quote:Why the derision over the guy from Colorado School of mines? Because people are still hung up on this whole "School" thing. I think for certain positions, there's a bit of correlation because of the player base they recruit from. Guys from the old Big 10(?) Iowa/Wisconsin/Nebraska etc. had big OL/DLss because some attribute it to the kids from that region growing up with the diet that they have. Some attribute the athletes from Florida, California, Texas due to being able to play outdoors for the most part constantly due to the mild winters (compared to northern teams).
There's no science in drafting players. If there was, then the hit rate would be much higher, because teams would be using that science to evaluate. But it doesn't exist.
Now is the probability of success higher drafting from a big time school compared to a div 2 school? I think that I'd agree on. But to be exact on position? I don't agree, because there simply are too many factors.
Sure, you can pick out the successes. But how do they compare to the failures?
Since James, Portis, and Gore...who has Miami produced at RB?
Mike James? Lamar Miller? Eh they are OK, with Miller looking like a mighty bust up until a small stretch last season.
Gore was drafted in 2005. That's nine years of no "stud" running backs from a so-called "RB Univ".
Basing it on recent trends (like the Alabama/Saban example)? OK, I can buy that. But to base decisions on decades and decades of history when not only coaches, schemes, but the game of college football and the NFL as a whole has change, to me, is a logical fallacy in evaluating a prospect.
Putting aside the opening statement regarding "school" in the name for a moment...do you take seriously the assertion that regional diet plays a factor in schools producing or not producing quality OL? Is Indiana not in the same region of the country as Iowa and Wisconsin?
Regarding the closing point about the Miami RBs/recent trends, there is merit to that argument.
I do not assert my method is an absolute rule. Just a "rule of thumb," or a guide, if you will.
For instance, a player from a football powerhouse that has produced successful players at his position is not guaranteed any success just because he went to the school. But you know on some level, the school has demonstrated an ability to identify, recruit, and develop players at that position capable of success at the NFL level. Conversely, Indiana has not demonstrated much ability to identify, recruit, and develop players at most positions-notably RB-capable of success at the NFL level.
What I don't get about your aversion to the theory is that on some level, you subscribe to it conceptually.
You said you could see the difference in "the probability of success higher drafting from a big time school compared to a div 2 school." So you acknowledge there is a difference between a division 1 and a division 2 school in terms of the quality of players that are NFL caliber prospects. Yet if there are two division 1 schools, you act as if there can be no difference in the quality of the program even though they are on the same division. Do you assert that, as a long time football watcher as I assume you have been, there is no difference between the Alabamas and USCs and the Armys, Dukes? All four schools are div 1 schools, but anyone who has watched football for any appreciable length of time can tell you there is a HUGE difference in the qualities of the programs. If you don't, I enthusiastically welcome any compelling argument that factually and logically puts those programs on the same quality footing.
If, on the other hand, you acknowledge the open and obvious truth that even between division 1 schools, there can be a huge disparity in quality between one football program and another, then it stands to reason teams allocate time and resources accordingly.
We are in the pre draft phase where colleges and universities are having Pro Day workouts. How many teams were represented at Alabama's or FSU's or Oregon's Pro Day? How many scouts and GMs and coaches were there? How many at Wyoming's?
Why the difference?