Jacksonville Jaguars Fan Forums

Quote:Smart teams draft players due to traits they have and then develop them.

 

That's how a team like the Steelers got Antonio Brown, from Central Michigan.  He's one of the best WRs in the league (some say he's the best).

 

Bullseye would've never drafted him.

From a basic conceptual level, what is the difference between the presumption that a guy from a division 2 school is unlikely to succeed in the NFL (your stance), and the presumption that a guy from a sub standard division 1 school is unlikely to succeed in the NFL (mine)?

 

My philosophy mirrors Caldwell's.

Quote:But in the absence of anything showing him to be truly transcendant, I would not take him over a comparably rated person from a better program.

 

What Coleman has done isn't impressive to you? 2000 yards  7.5 per carry, no passing game to back off the safeties, team that went 4-8, reminds me of what MJD did when he led the league in rushing

Quote:OK, so what exactly is your point?

Nobody is drafting Tevin Coleman ahead of Matt Jones from Florida if Jones showed the skills that Coleman has.

My original point was that Coleman was better than any Indiana RB I'd ever seen before him, because Indiana players tend to not translate well to the NFL.

 

D6 and I started discussing other IU backs that came before him and IU generally.  Somebody in the thread (I can't recall who at the moment) shook their head at my bias.

 

I don't get the cognitive dissonance here.

 

Nobody has asserted Indiana has produced a bunch of great players over the years.  In fact, D6 supported my argument that Indiana hasn't produced many players.

 

Everybody seems on board with the concept that some programs are more apt to produce NFL caliber players than others.

 

Perhaps people have a problem with the extra "filter" of schools producing by position.  But that could very well be consistent with the "current trend" analysis one of you guys offered earlier.

 

Otherwise I don't get the argument.

 

I don't dispute it's possible to get a great player from a small school.

 

Hell NFL history is replete with examples of great players coming from small schools.

 

But don't ask me to be gung ho about Indiana players when Bethune Cookman has produced more Pro Bowlers over the last 12 years (3:  Rashean Mathis, Nick Collins, Eric Weems), than Indiana has produced in the same time period.

Quote:What Coleman has done isn't impressive to you? 2000 yards  7.5 per carry, no passing game to back off the safeties, team that went 4-8, reminds me of what MJD did when he led the league in rushing

Go back and read my original post in this subject. 

 

I said I liked what I saw from him, especially in comparison to other Indiana RBs.

Quote:From a basic conceptual level, what is the difference between the presumption that a guy from a division 2 school is unlikely to succeed in the NFL (your stance), and the presumption that a guy from a sub standard division 1 school is unlikely to succeed in the NFL (mine)?

 

My philosophy mirrors Caldwell's.

 

Level of competition. 

Quote:Go back and read my original post in this subject. 

 

I said I liked what I saw from him, especially in comparison to other Indiana RBs.

 

So when would you draft him?

Quote:Level of competition. 

So because a school is technically division 1, it means it's equal in caliber to other division 1 programs such that any differences in the number of NFL prospects is to be ignored?

 

Which is the better program-FIU a division I school, or Bethune Cookman, a Div 1 AA school that has beaten FIU two years running, and has produced more Pro bowlers in the last 12 years?

 

You mean I would be wrong to presume that FIU is a lesser caliber program than Miami and govern my analysis of the players accordingly?

Quote:So because a school is technically division 1, it means it's equal in caliber to other division 1 programs such that any differences in the number of NFL prospects is to be ignored?

 

Which is the better program-FIU a division I school, or Bethune Cookman, a Div 1 AA school that has beaten FIU two years running, and has produced more Pro bowlers in the last 12 years?

 

You mean I would be wrong to presume that FIU is a lesser caliber program than Miami and govern my analysis of the players accordingly?

 

Indiana is a division 1 program that plays in a good conference.

They play teams that churn out plenty of NFL talent.  You can watch a prospect playing at Indiana play against those big teams and say with more confidence whether he can play or not.

Quote:So when would you draft him?

2nd -3rd round.

 

He shows far more burst and explosiveness than Anthony Thompson or Vaughn Dunbar ever dreamed.  Unlike most IU players, he looks like he could be a difference maker for an NFL team.

 

The school pedigree gives me slight pause, along with an upright style of running.  If the same player went to say...Miami or FSU, I'd have far less concern about the pedigree.

Quote:2nd -3rd round.

 

He shows far more burst and explosiveness than Anthony Thompson or Vaughn Dunbar ever dreamed.  Unlike most IU players, he looks like he could be a difference maker for an NFL team.

 

The school pedigree gives me slight pause, along with an upright style of running.  If the same player went to say...Miami or FSU, I'd have far less concern about the pedigree.

 

that's fair enough, and I think everyone on this planet except Gene Smith operates that way.  

Quote:that's fair enough, and I think everyone on this planet except Gene Smith operates that way.  

Sigh.

 

Why did he have to operate that way for us?!?

Quote:Go back and read my original post in this subject. 

 

I said I liked what I saw from him, especially in comparison to other Indiana RBs.

nah I'd rather go by your blanket statement regarding your small school bias, it's more fun that way

Quote:Putting aside the opening statement regarding "school" in the name for a moment...do you take seriously the assertion that regional diet plays a factor in schools producing or not producing quality OL?  Is Indiana not in the same region of the country as Iowa and Wisconsin?

 

I don't, but I've heard people make the assertion before.


 

Regarding the closing point about the Miami RBs/recent trends, there is merit to that argument.

 

I do not assert my method is an absolute rule.  Just a "rule of thumb," or a guide, if you will.

 

For instance, a player from a football powerhouse that has produced successful players at his position is not guaranteed any success just because he went to the school.  But you know on some level, the school has demonstrated an ability to identify, recruit, and develop players at that position capable of success at the NFL level.  Conversely, Indiana has not demonstrated much ability to identify, recruit, and develop players at most positions-notably RB-capable of success at the NFL level. 

 

What I don't get about your aversion to the theory is that on some level, you subscribe to it conceptually.

 

You said you could see the difference in "the probability of success higher drafting from a big time school compared to a div 2 school."  So you acknowledge there is a difference between a division 1 and a division 2 school in terms of the quality of players that are NFL caliber prospects.  Yet if there are two division 1 schools, you act as if there can be no difference in the quality of the program even though they are on the same division.  Do you assert that, as a long time football watcher as I assume you have been, there is no difference between the Alabamas and USCs and the Armys, Dukes?  All four schools are div 1 schools, but anyone who has watched football for any appreciable length of time can tell you there is a HUGE difference in the qualities of the programs.  If you don't, I enthusiastically welcome any compelling argument that factually and logically puts those programs on the same quality footing.

 

I'm not going to disagree that there is a level of difference between schools. That's why I said there probably is a higher probability of someone in that school succeeding. That's just probability goes. The more ping pong balls you have, the more chances you have of winning. Alabama has a lot of ping pong balls .


 

But what I seem to get from you is that, you would downgrade a guy from a non-renowned school because that school's track record isn't good at producing NFL caliber players. That is where my disagreement is. Sure, allocating resources go ahead, send five scouts to the Bama/Georgia game and another five to FSU/Clemson while sending one to Mt. Union. That's fine. But once all the information comes back and your scout tells you "Player A has this and that, Player B has this and that, etc...", then you watch the film of these guys...the school thing should go out the window. You're not grading what some guy did for some school playing for some other coach from some time in the past. You should be grading what this guy is doing now, playing against some other guy, and projecting how that translates in the next step.


 

Kiper just put out his "A+" drafts for each team. For us he has:

 

1st- Leonard Williams

2nd- Tevin Coleman

3rd- PJ Williams

 

Not sure about PJ but I would be totally fine with the first 2.

Quote:Kiper just put out his "A+" drafts for each team. For us he has:

 

1st- Leonard Williams

2nd- Tevin Coleman

3rd- PJ Williams

 

Not sure about PJ but I would be totally fine with the first 2.

 

A+ for value or addressing team needs?

 

You draft two defensive players and do not address the two biggest needs on that side of the ball, pass rusher and free safety.

Quote:A+ for value or addressing team needs?

 

You draft two defensive players and do not address the two biggest needs on that side of the ball, pass rusher and free safety.

"1. At each slot, I make a pick in the best interest of only the team with the pick. I won't pass on a player at No. 4 just because I like the team better at No. 5."

 

Thats what he says in his article.  Either way, he feels like we will have the chance to choose any non QB in the draft since he thinks the QBs go 1 and 2.

Quote:Kiper just put out his "A+" drafts for each team. For us he has:


1st- Leonard Williams

2nd- Tevin Coleman

3rd- PJ Williams


Not sure about PJ but I would be totally fine with the first 2.

Wonder if PJ could convert to FS?

Quote:Kiper just put out his "A+" drafts for each team. For us he has:


1st- Leonard Williams

2nd- Tevin Coleman

3rd- PJ Williams


Not sure about PJ but I would be totally fine with the first 2.

Wonder if PJ could convert to FS?

Quote:Wonder if PJ could convert to FS?

 

Doubt it. I feel like those not as close to the organization see cornerback as a much bigger need than it actually is.

Quote:Doubt it. I feel like those not as close to the organization see cornerback as a much bigger need than it actually is.

I've noticed that quite a bit in mocks.  I don't get it.  As long as House can be solid, then there's really zero reason to grab a DB in the first two days unless they are far and away the best player and we can't trade back.