Every year there seems to be a large percentage of fans who want nothing more than to trade down out of our draft pick in the 1st round and amass a bunch of future picks. Think the Redskins and Rams trade for RG3.
I believe this team does not need to trade down and should not trade down, except for the unlikely scenario that someone comes up with a ridiculous offer.
My premise is this: Our roster is stacked with young, talented, and INEXPERIENCED players.
Bortles, Denard, Storm, Lee, ARob, Joeckel, Bowanko, Linder, Pasztor just on offense.
More players like: Chris Smith, Telvin Smith, Branch, Gratz, Evans, Cyprien, DMac, Colvin.
That's a lot of young players that have been getting a lot of playing time. In most cases, trade-downs would result in adding more of those types of players. Young, inexperienced, and talented. May or may not develop. The chance of finding a superstar out of those players listed is small, although many would agree caldwell has done a good job of drafting.
I think this team needs to add a bonafide superstar to the roster. A Fred Taylor. Jimmy Smith. Mojo. Marcus Stroud. Difference makers, not extra depth. We have enough depth on this team right now.
I believe that at #3, if you believe in your scouts and GM and coaching staff, you may be getting the best non-QB in the entire draft. Why let that potential difference maker go to someone else?
Furthermore, Caldwell himself has said that we have 22 starters now and no true "needs." We don't need to bring in another 10 rookies. In fact, if we do - I bet you many wouldn't even make the team. The roster is full of young players with potential to improve.
It would be different if we had 8 holes on this team and we just need as many players as possible. That is not the case anymore That was the case in 2013 and 2014.
Do you really want to have another 10 rookies playing next year? Not me. Been there, done that. We need to let our young core develop and supplement them by adding a monster at #3.
It's completely different if you have a veteran team with a veteran QB and are set at multiple important positions. You may want to get younger then..... then it makes sense to add a bunch of young players and see which rise to the top. We don't have that luxury. We are still looking for superstars. Without them, you will never be more than 6-10. No offense to the guys listed above, but none are superstars or true "difference makers." At least not yet. We need to draft that difference maker #3.
In a nutshell: Trading down doesn't directly address our biggest need. Superstar talent. Trading down will get you a younger roster, which actually is one of the reasons we've been so bad in the last two years. It just doesn't make any sense.
I really can't stand trading down in the first. Maybe the later rounds, but trading down in the first unless you are getting an offer you can't refuse is pointless.
People always complain about the jags winning meaninglessness games then they are the ones who want the team to trade down. Doesn't make sense to me.
I agree, get the guy you want, not your 4th and 5th options
I'd take 3 solid guys over 1 superstar all the time. I'd rather improve 3 positions than really improve 1.
Quote:I agree, get the guy you want, not your 4th and 5th options
What if the guy you want is gone, and the next 4, 5, or even 10 guys are relatively equal in your eyes?
If you trade back, you're still going to get one of those guys (equal to the guy you would have taken at 3) plus more.
There's only one guy I think they'd see as head and shoulders above what will be available to us.
After him, I don't see much separation of talent in the pool that's likely to be available to us.
Quote:Every year there seems to be a large percentage of fans who want nothing more than to trade down out of our draft pick in the 1st round and amass a bunch of future picks. Think the Redskins and Rams trade for RG3.
I believe this team does not need to trade down and should not trade down, except for the unlikely scenario that someone comes up with a ridiculous offer.
My premise is this: Our roster is stacked with young, talented, and INEXPERIENCED players.
Bortles, Denard, Storm, Lee, ARob, Joeckel, Bowanko, Linder, Pasztor just on offense.
More players like: Chris Smith, Telvin Smith, Branch, Gratz, Evans, Cyprien, DMac, Colvin.
That's a lot of young players that have been getting a lot of playing time. In most cases, trade-downs would result in adding more of those types of players. Young, inexperienced, and talented. May or may not develop. The chance of finding a superstar out of those players listed is small, although many would agree caldwell has done a good job of drafting.
I think this team needs to add a bonafide superstar to the roster. A Fred Taylor. Jimmy Smith. Mojo. Marcus Stroud. Difference makers, not extra depth. We have enough depth on this team right now.
I believe that at #3, if you believe in your scouts and GM and coaching staff, you may be getting the best non-QB in the entire draft. Why let that potential difference maker go to someone else?
Furthermore, Caldwell himself has said that we have 22 starters now and no true "needs." We don't need to bring in another 10 rookies. In fact, if we do - I bet you many wouldn't even make the team. The roster is full of young players with potential to improve.
It would be different if we had 8 holes on this team and we just need as many players as possible. That is not the case anymore That was the case in 2013 and 2014.
Do you really want to have another 10 rookies playing next year? Not me. Been there, done that. We need to let our young core develop and supplement them by adding a monster at #3.
It's completely different if you have a veteran team with a veteran QB and are set at multiple important positions. You may want to get younger then..... then it makes sense to add a bunch of young players and see which rise to the top. We don't have that luxury. We are still looking for superstars. Without them, you will never be more than 6-10. No offense to the guys listed above, but none are superstars or true "difference makers." At least not yet. We need to draft that difference maker #3.
In a nutshell: Trading down doesn't directly address our biggest need. Superstar talent. Trading down will get you a younger roster, which actually is one of the reasons we've been so bad in the last two years. It just doesn't make any sense.
You raise valid arguments against trading down.
There are counterpoints that bear consideration, however.
You argue against trading down as if it is impossible to do so and acquire superstar level talent.
I think it is quite possible to trade down and add superstar caliber talent.
2 time Super Bowl winning head coach Jimmy Johnson, formerly of Dallas and Miami, was a staunch advocate of trading down, indicating it gave you more bites out of the apple that is the pool of talent in any draft class. Most of his drafts were characterized by trades down that netted players like Dixon Edwards, Darren Woodson, Erik Williams and Darren Smith for the Cowboys, and guys like Jason Taylor and Zack Thomas for the Dolphins. Woodson, Williams, Taylor and Thomas all fall into the Superstar category, and players of equivalent ability would be more than welcome here in Jacksonville. He successfully added young talented players to a nucleus of young relatively inexperienced and talented players to build a Super Bowl team.
Similarly, one of the best drafts in NFL history was the 1986 San Francisco 49ers draft, conducted by the late Hall of Fame and 3 time Super Bowl winning coach Bill Walsh. That draft featured numerous trades down for a playoff team the year before. That draft produced an insane number of starters and Pro bowlers, including Charles Haley, Tom Rathman, Tim McKyer and Steve Wallace. Here is a link that explains how Walsh did it.
http://www.si.com/vault/1990/04/23/12187...asterpiece
Of course, strategies like that only help if you have a guy who can identify that ostensibly lower level talent as potential starting level talent like Walsh and Johnson.
Might we have a guy like that in Caldwell? You see what he found in the 3rd 4th and 5th rounds last year, to say nothing of Bowanko in the 6th. Maybe he can, maybe not. It might be worth trading back to see if he can replicate that.
There is also the possibility the trade back can result in an experienced upgrade at a position of need for the Jaguars.
The Saints have had a firesale of their roster because of cap concerns, and they are still talking about trading players away. What's to stop them from throwing in FS Jairus Byrd in any trade up with us? Would Byrd not help this team?
Of course there's always the danger of trading out of range of a superstar caliber player. Jimmy Johnson did that very thing in the 1998 draft, trading down the night before the draft, missing out on a guy named Randy Moss.
But I think Caldwell performed well enough in last year's draft to get some slack if he wants to trade back this year and accumulate picks again.
Quote:I agree, get the guy you want, not your 4th and 5th options
But what if your top three options at your original spot get taken off the board right before your pick, and you don't like what's left? Standing pat does not necessarily mean getting the guy you want.
Quote:I'd take 3 solid guys over 1 superstar all the time. I'd rather improve 3 positions than really improve 1.
I wouldn't go that far, either.
A superstar at the right position can take your franchise further than the three solid players.
Quote:But what if your top three options at your original spot get taken off the board right before your pick, and you don't like what's left? Standing pat does not necessarily mean getting the guy you want.
You might get a guy you like, but forced to take him earlier than you wanted to. You get your guy, but lose value.
Maybe worth it in context if it means locking in "your" guy, but if you don't even try to get better value you're not doing due diligence. Sometimes you can, sometimes you can't, but you've got to at least try.
Take Williams if he drops, if he doesn't then trade down if we get a rediculous offer. Saying that, I wouldn't want to drop out the top 10
Theres nothing wrong with trading down, especially if you can rob a team ( a la RG3 trade), get the farm and the mortgage while you watch the bozo you traded with sink with the ship. If Mariota is there at 3, you gotta seriously look into a trade down option. Id love to watch the Eagles just burn, i cannot stand that franchise, but if somehow they traded their whole draft with us, while we stalk pilled for the future, wow it would be hilarious. Trading everything for one player is not how you win, and its been shown year after year. The draft is how you win in this league. Its just about who you draft, not when you draft, not how you draft, but if you hit on the players or not. Jaguars have had some misfortune the past decade in the scenario, and its no surprise why we have pretty much sucked for over a decade. When your GM's draft busts in the first, or just make bone headed decisions throughout the whole process, like drafting punters in the 3rd round, your bound to just watch your team fail. Caldwell seems a bit smarter, he uses a conservative approach but also takes necessary risks and understands how import the draft process is. He raves and raves about the draft and criticizes free agency. Theres nothing wrong with trading down, and especially a draft guru like Caldwell, getting tons of picks just so a team can gamble on a franchise QB is something that is right up Caldwells ally.
With that being said, lets say theres no valuable trade partner, trade options, but nothing that significantly improves the team. For example, lets say both Winston and Mariota go 1 and 2. We are sitting there at 3 with Leonard Williams and Amari Cooper staring us in the face. And the Redskins come knocking at 5 looking to trade up to get Cooper or Williams. Why would we do that unless they give us a ton of compensation? Why let them get one of the best players in all of the draft thats a non QB? Whats the point? Unless they are giving up their second, 3rd and more picks, makes no sense. I think in this scenario, your better off taking the best available player at a need and just moving on. While we have Odrik, Leonard Williams is a stud who can be played all over the line. He's got freakish speed for a D linemen and literally is getting pass rusher stats as a LDE. He dominated Nebraska in their bowl game, DOMINATED. He was unblock able. While the jags used two seconds on WR last year, both were up and down and both to me don't seem to be game changers. I think Allen Robinson is a good possession receiver and as long as he stays healthy will be a solid pro. I think Marquis Lee was a great pick, but he underachieved a ton. It took him a while to learn the playbook and get adjusted to the pros, and while he has a ton of potential, its not enough to just ignore the position just because of that. Amari Cooper was the best receiver in the nation last year, the guy is a game changer deep threat. Its just what the jags are missing, and if Caldwell stays true to his word of this offseason is about improving Bortles, you gotta consider one of the best players in the nation in Amari Cooper. Just imagine Cooper, Robinson, Lee and Hurns, possibly Blackmon back, plus Julius Thomas and Lewis as your TE, with a rookie RB and denard in the backfield.....your offense is now completely changed and with a young and improved O line. Bortles has all the tools he needs to improve.
If the jags can get a very one sided trade down option in favor for us, I'm for it. But if Mariota is gone at 2, and Leonard Williams or Amari Cooper are staring us in the face. Im running to the podium calling one of their names because those extra picks may not be worth what either of those two have to offer.
Quote:But what if your top three options at your original spot get taken off the board right before your pick, and you don't like what's left? Standing pat does not necessarily mean getting the guy you want.
I'm talking about if the guy you want is on the board, same thing with trading up, if a guy you covet is there and the price is right go get him. Yea if your guy is gone of course your gonna look to trade down.
But some people want to trade down for the sake of trading down and loading up on draft picks, like the OP says if you trust your scouts a GM skills you believe in the guy your picking, trading back for more picks and just hoping somebody will be good is not always the answer.
Quote:I'm talking about if the guy you want is on the board, same thing with trading up, if a guy you covet is there and the price is right go get him. Yea if your guy is gone of course your gonna look to trade down.
But some people want to trade down for the sake of trading down and loading up on draft picks, like the OP says if you trust your scouts a GM skills you believe in the guy your picking, trading back for more picks and just hoping somebody will be good is not always the answer.
I don't think anyone has said this. Obviously if you are committed to your guy, like Caldwell was dead set on taking Bortles last year, then you do it. You don't get cute trying to trade down and risk missing out on your guy. Now if you have few players valued at the same spot and would be willing to gamble that one of those players will still be available if you decide to trade down then that would make plenty of sense as well.
They definitely need superstar talent, but I'm also not convinced that the talent HAS to be selected at #3. For instance, there's like 5-6 WRs projected to go in the 1st round. One likely will be a star, but not necessarily the first one selected. Then you have different positions holding different values. So you could get your #1 TE,RB,RT,OG,C,S, LEO, OTTO later than the #3 pick. Depends on the way the team sees it. If they trade down, my guess is they don't believe they are impacting the team less by doing so. And if they do trade down, they likely will be asking for picks in the top 3 rounds.
Quote:I don't think anyone has said this. Obviously if you are committed to your guy, like Caldwell was dead set on taking Bortles last year, then you do it. You don't get cute trying to trade down and risk missing out on your guy. Now if you have few players valued at the same spot and would be willing to gamble that one of those players will still be available if you decide to trade down then that would make plenty of sense as well.
There are people on this board who thinks that way, before the draft process even starts they are already talking about trading down for more picks.
I think it depends what sort of player we are after in the first round.
If we want a tackle or a running back (or a position which is less highly valued) and we think this is a deep draft with good players in later rounds, then trading down sounds like a very sensible idea.
But, I think we will be chasing a pass rusher (or maybe a wide receiver). I think we need to stay in the top eight for that.
The only thing that makes me nervous is trading down without a plan, simply because another team has made what appears to be a generous offer.
Quote:I think it depends what sort of player we are after in the first round.
If we want a tackle or a running back (or a position which is less highly valued) and we think this is a deep draft with good players in later rounds, then trading down sounds like a very sensible idea.
But, I think we will be chasing a pass rusher (or maybe a wide receiver). I think we need to stay in the top eight for that.
The only thing that makes me nervous is trading down without a plan, simply because another team has made what appears to be a generous offer.
I don't see that being an issue. They go over so many different scenario's before draft day it'll make our collective heads spin.
I'm sure Dave has a good idea of who he would pick in various trade down scenarios. If the price is right, I have no problem trading down and getting 2 or 3 "lesser" players instead of taking the gamble that your guy at #3 is a game-changer.
Quote:What if the guy you want is gone, and the next 4, 5, or even 10 guys are relatively equal in your eyes?
Then you try to trade down, that's quite simple.
I think there are only a few "elite" talents in this year's draft. To me, those are Jameis Winston, Leonard Williams, and Amari Cooper.
Then there's a gap (IMO). Talented players, sure - but they have question marks that the other's don't (I'll exclude Jameis from the discussion because he's going #1 overall).
The rest of the guys are bunched up together, guys like Fowler, Beasley, White, Gregory, Ray, etc.
So we're sitting nicely at #3. We need to get one of those guys.
Now, if somehow we're sitting at 4 and Jameis, Cooper, and Williams have been picked, and you don't think there's a huge drop off from the next tier of players - then yeah you try to trade down.
But that won't be a problem for us.