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Caldwell had expressed an interest in trading down this year, and the fans on the message booard always seem interested in dealing down.

 

Meanwhile, the perception is there are two franchise QBs in this draft, and a very good chance one may be on the board when we pick at three, which means we may be getting a lot of calls for our spot from teams looking to move up/

 

Accordingly, I thought I'd examine the possible trading partners, examining why and why they would not be viable candidates to swap with us.

 

5.  Washington


 

Why they would

• Gruden does not seem overly enthused about RGIII, a dramatic departure from when the Skins gave up a ton to get him.
  
  
• They pick just two spots below the Jaguars.  A move up would be expensive, but not likely cost prohibitive
  .
  

Why they wouldn't
:

 

• Not too long ago, they gave up a ton for RG III.  Snyder may not be willing to give up on him just yet, especially if it means moving up again to do so.
  
  
• Jacksonville and Oakland (pick 4) just drafted QBs high last year and both believe they hit on their picks.  They may be inclined to stay at 5 and see if Tennessee, Jacksonville and Oakland overprice their demands and cause Mariota to fall to them
  .
  

 

6.  New York Jets


 

Why they would
:

 

• New coaches and new GMs usually like to start their tenures with their new guy at QB.  The Jets have a new coach and a new GM.
  
  
• Have a need at QB having missed on Sanchez and not seemingly crazy about Geno Smith.
  
  
• Not too far down from the Jaguars pick, another costly but not cost prohibitive jump from 6, especially since they already have, from a pure talent standpoint, a pretty decent team in place with the other marquee positions of LT (Ferguson) cover CB (Revis).  Already have a strong DL.  Arguably only need a RB, RT and a edge rusher outside of QB.
  
  
• A team that, historically, has been willing to move up.
  
  

Why they wouldn't:


 

• Arguably, because of the overall strength of their roster, especially at the marquee positions, and them having a defensive coach, they might be more inclined to go with a veteran QB and fill the positions of need, thinking they have a shot to win now.
  
  
• One of those needs is at edge rusher, and the value is certainly there at 6.
  
  

7.  Chicago Bears


 

Why they would
:

 

• New coach (Fox) typically wants his guy at QB.
  
  
• Cutler, in many ways, seems like Jeff George v.2.0.  They got rid of a favorite target of his in Brandon Marshall, so it may be a sign they might be willing to go in another direction at QB.
  
  

Why they wouldn't
:

• Cutler is still young enough and is decent enough to have some success.  Fox made it to a Super Bowl with Jake Freaking Delhomme at QB. 
  
  
• Chicago isn't a team that typically trades up much.
  
  
• In the aftermath of the worst defensive performances in franchise history, they are switching from a 4-3 to a 3-4.  They have too many holes all over the defense to justify moving up for a QB, especially when they have a decent one already there.
  
  

10.  St. Louis Rams


 

Why they would:


 

•   Franchise seems headed to Los Angeles.  Team may want a young franchise QB well known to LA fans to be the new face of the franchise.
  
  
• Though it would be costlier to move up to 3, getting into the cost prohibitive category for a team with a regular allotment of picks, they just exhausted the truckload of picks they got from the RG III trade.
  
  

Why they wouldn't:


 

• Team is talented enough to possibly contend now.  All they need is a solid veteran QB, which is what they might have in Foles, who is likely familiar to LA fans too from his time in Arizona.
  
  
• If they like Foles, may be more interested in a receiver than anything.  They could stay at 10 and still possibly land either White or Cooper.
  
  

 

12.  Cleveland


 

Why they would:


 

• Because they botched one of their first round picks on Manziel last year.  Aside from having physical limits, there are numerous character issues with Manziel.  Mariota has no publicly known physical limits or character issues.
  
  
• They have the ammo to move up into the top 5, with two picks in the first round (12 & 19), and six of the first 120 picks or so.
  
  
• Because they're Cleveland, that's why
  
  

Why they wouldn't:


 

• They spent a first round pick on a QB just last year, and teams almost never spend first round picks in successive years on QB.
  
  
• They traded up to get that QB last year.
  
  
• Arguably have an even bigger need at WR.  If they stay at 12, they could still get a good one there.
  
  
• Because they're Cleveland, that's why
  
  

13.  New Orleans

 

Why they would:

 

• They have a coach who, having won the Super Bowl and is revered in New Orleans for it, has security.  He can survive a rebuild, and he can develop a QB that needs work.
  
• They have a 36 year old QB in Drew Brees.  If Mariota could go anywhere and sit for a year and develop, learning behind Brees and under Payton would be a very good situation.
  
• They have jettisoned a whole bunch of quality players because of their salary cap, and they still have work to do.  They are in clear rebuild mode.
  
• As a result of their offseason deals, they have two first round picks (13 & 31), two third round picks (75 &78), and two 5th round picks (148 & 154) plus they still have cap to cut.  They could trade guys away (Byrd).  In short, they have ammo to move up.
  

Why they wouldn't:

 

• They have needs all over the place with the bloodletting that has taken place there.
  
• As their GM acknowledged, they need lots of help on the defensive side of the ball
  
• They still have Drew Brees and Payton and they are in a relatively weak division.  If they add a few more pieces with all of the picks they have, they could re-take the division in 2015.
  

Breaking out your options of teams:

Quote:5.  Washington


 

6.  New York Jets


 

7.  Chicago Bears



10.  St. Louis Rams


 

12.  Cleveland

 

13.  New Orleans
 

 

Washington - I literally have no idea what they might do. I see them as a very short-sighted franchise in that they think in terms of "the next season" and nothing else. Would they? Maybe, but I wouldn't put it past them to try and trade down for Brandon Scherff for some odd reason.

 

NYJ - The most likely candidate in my mind. As you stated, there is a new regime there and they are probably going to want "their guy". They have been willing in the past to move up and down the draft, and the move would make sense to me. Lots of decent players still there around Six, just sayin'.

 

Chicago - Nope. Can't see it. While I like Fox a lot as a coach, he has always struck me as a Bill Parcells type in that he wants a veteran Quarterback who won't screw things up. If Chicago does move up, I can see it being for one of the D-Linemen whose names keep being bandied about.

 

St. Louis - Tough to say on this one. St. Louis was in the Catbird seat in terms of draft picks over the past three years, and they really haven't done too well with it. Not that they are horrible, but there's still a lot of holes on that roster from my point of view. Anyway, I can't see them moving up for no other reason than I just don't have a feel for Fisher et al and what they want as a team.

 

Cleveland - No idea. And to be honest, I'm getting the feel more and more that I wouldn't want to drop that far anyway. As recently as last week I liked the idea of moving to 12 and taking Dupree, but is that really a sound plan? I feel like I'd be slightly queasy at trading down with them.

 

New Orleans - The true Wild Card. They are obviously bleeding payroll, but to what end? Do they want to rebuild with one guy or build the roster up piecemeal? I really don't think I'd like to drop down quite that far unless there was a true sweetheart deal involved.

Quote:Breaking out your options of teams:

 

Washington - I literally have no idea what they might do. I see them as a very short-sighted franchise in that they think in terms of "the next season" and nothing else. Would they? Maybe, but I wouldn't put it past them to try and trade down for Brandon Scherff for some odd reason.

 

NYJ - The most likely candidate in my mind. As you stated, there is a new regime there and they are probably going to want "their guy". They have been willing in the past to move up and down the draft, and the move would make sense to me. Lots of decent players still there around Six, just sayin'.

 

Chicago - Nope. Can't see it. While I like Fox a lot as a coach, he has always struck me as a Bill Parcells type in that he wants a veteran Quarterback who won't screw things up. If Chicago does move up, I can see it being for one of the D-Linemen whose names keep being bandied about.

 

St. Louis - Tough to say on this one. St. Louis was in the Catbird seat in terms of draft picks over the past three years, and they really haven't done too well with it. Not that they are horrible, but there's still a lot of holes on that roster from my point of view. Anyway, I can't see them moving up for no other reason than I just don't have a feel for Fisher et al and what they want as a team.

 

Cleveland - No idea. And to be honest, I'm getting the feel more and more that I wouldn't want to drop that far anyway. As recently as last week I liked the idea of moving to 12 and taking Dupree, but is that really a sound plan? I feel like I'd be slightly queasy at trading down with them.

 

New Orleans - The true Wild Card. They are obviously bleeding payroll, but to what end? Do they want to rebuild with one guy or build the roster up piecemeal? I really don't think I'd like to drop down quite that far unless there was a true sweetheart deal involved.

Now if I had to rank them in terms of likelihood of a deal...

 

1.  New York Jets

2.  New Orleans

3.  Cleveland

4. Washington

5.  St. Louis

6.  Chicago

I think Cleveland will be the team. They already tried to trade a first round pick for Bradford. If Mariota falls within striking distance I could see them doing whatever it takes to snag him. To add I think Ray Farmer's seat has never been hotter. Desperate times usually call for desperate measures.

Quote:I think Cleveland will be the team. They already tried to trade a first round pick for Bradford. If Mariota falls within striking distance I could see them doing whatever it takes to snag him. To add I think Ray Farmer's seat has never been hotter. Desperate times usually call for desperate measures.

From a Jaguars perspective, I would think Cleveland would represent a near best case scenario-with likely the other best case scenario is a trade down, still remaining within the top 6 or so, getting an extra 2 and maybe another, and still getting one of the impact players in this draft.

 

They have two first round picks-neither too too low to get an impact player for us.

 

I know I have lusted after their two first round picks for a while.

Quote:From a Jaguars perspective, I would think Cleveland would represent a near best case scenario-with likely the other best case scenario is a trade down, still remaining within the top 6 or so, getting an extra 2 and maybe another, and still getting one of the impact players in this draft.


They have two first round picks-neither too too low to get an impact player for us.


I know I have lusted after their two first round picks for a while.

Ray Farmer missed horribly with the Manziel pick and struck out with Bradford. He knows that he HAS to get another QB. If he doesn't he'll be sitting with the fans come this time next year. He may very well be willing to give up both 1st round picks in order to secure the rights for Mariota.

Quote:Ray Farmer missed horribly with the Manziel pick and struck out with Bradford. He knows that he HAS to get another QB. If he doesn't he'll be sitting with the fans come this time next year. He may very well be willing to give up both 1st round picks in order to secure the rights for Mariota.

I get that argument.

 

The only problem with that approach is that Mariota is a prospect that needs work, and whom many say isn't out of the box ready to start.

 

I think if the Browns ownership is willing to struggle as Mariota develops and not fire Farmer while they do that, then they may make the move.

 

But I think if Farmer is told he is on thin ice, he may not pull the trigger on a deal for a QB that needs work, especially since they just drafted Manziel last year.

 

Now hopefully, Haslam, forced Manziel on Farmer last year, is willing to eat some crow and bite the bullet, and is willing to give Farmer carte blanche to do what he wants, he trades up both first round picks (and more) to us so they could take Mariota at three.

I think the Jets should take mariota. Their roster is too good to be in position like top 10 to take one next year, unless the draft is deep at QB and one gets to them wherever they pick.


Also Fitzpatrick is a solid game manager and can give them a real shot at sitting mariota the whole season to really work on him.

Quote:I think the Jets should take mariota. Their roster is too good to be in position like top 10 to take one next year, unless the draft is deep at QB and one gets to them wherever they pick.


Also Fitzpatrick is a solid game manager and can give them a real shot at sitting mariota the whole season to really work on him.

I forgot they traded for Fitzpatrick.

 

So that would satisfy the defensive coach/veteran QB thing for them.

 

He could easily be a decent caretaker for them until Mariota is ready.  Only questions now are:

 

 How badly do the Jets want Mariota?

 

How badly do the Jaguars want to trade back?

 

How far do the Jaguars want to trade back?

St. Louis is an interesting sleeper in this bunch to me.  They really could go after their QB with a trade-up. 

Quote:St. Louis is an interesting sleeper in this bunch to me.  They really could go after their QB with a trade-up. 

If they pulled off a deal to three and they hit on Mariota, they could be a good team for a long time.

Assuming the trade down range for the Jaguars is from 5-31 (5 representing Washington, and 31 representing a package deal with the Saints), what players would you target at those spots?

 

For me, if we dealt down to 5-7, I'd still consider the same guys I considered at 6 at edge rusher, whomever is left between Cooper or White, or even the best T on the board (beginning to wonder if La'El Collins will rank up there by draft day).  In a scenario where we traded down with the Jets, I could see the top 5 picks going like this

 

1.  Tampa-Winston

2.  Tennessee-Williams

3.  NYJ (from Jax)-Mariota

4.  Oakland-(Cooper/White)

5.  Washington (Scherff/best T/or Edge)

 

Which would leave us with a choice of Fowler, or at worst the second best LEO prospect, the second best WR prospect between Cooper and White, or maybe the top T prospect).

 

If we end up with a pick from between 10-13 (St. Louis, Cleveland, New Orleans), Trae Waynes, a Tackle, or possibly even RB becomes a consideration.

 

 

 

19 (Cleveland)...Eddie Goldman, Marcus Brown, Andrus Peat, Landon Collins, Melvin Gordon and Devante Parker are all considerations.

 

31 (New Orleans)...Melvin Gordon, Todd Gurley, a corner, maybe Bernardrick McKinney

Chargers also rumored to covet Mariota 

Quote:Chargers also rumored to covet Mariota 

Yeah, but a lot of the Chargers Mariota buzz surrounded a trade of Phillip Rivers.  Absent a trade of Rivers, SD doesn't seem to have the ammo to pull off a deal with us, and it is unlikely we would covet Rivers in a trade at all.   They don't seem to have many other tradeable parts.

 

That's why I didn't include them in the list.

 

Now if somehow they acquire another first round pick-most likely in a deal for Rivers (imagine Houston giving up their first for Rivers)-and then they are able to package them up, then maybe I could include them.

Quote:Chargers also rumored to covet Mariota

They would have to trade Rivers on order to make the trade work. The only team in the top 4 that would take Rivers in a trade IMO would be Tennessee.

Quote:They would have to trade Rivers on order to make the trade work. The only team in the top 4 that would take Rivers in a trade IMO would be Tennessee.

As I indicated in my answer, theoretically they could trade Rivers to a team later in the first (i.e. Houston, St. Louis, ) for their first round pick this year, then potentially package those two picks to move up that way. 

 

But that would require too many moving parts without any guarantee they would get Mariota.

 

To do it that way, pre draft they would have to trade Rivers and get this year's first round pick from whomever traded for him.  Then, if they were to deal with us, they'd have to wait to see if Mariota were still on the board at 3.

 

If so, then they would have to outbid the other teams, and Jacksonville would have to be inclined to move down that far, even if they outbid the other teams.

 

That would be too much on field risk.

 

Unless they orchestrated a 3 team deal that would get Rivers traded and the right combination of picks to Jacksonville while Jacksonville was on the clock and Mariota were on the board at the time, the Bolts would potentially be without Rivers AND Mariota, heading into potentially a lame duck season in San Diego.

After two seasons of not even coming close to .500 if GM Dave Caldwell traded down & didnt get like another 1st round pick in addition to trading spots in the 1st round it would be viewed as an act of cowardism, and it would show that he has given up....

 

He needs to draft whom he feels is the best player at #3 or talk a team into trading next years 1st in addition to this years 1st if he trades down.

Quote:After two seasons of not even coming close to .500 if GM Dave Caldwell traded down & didnt get like another 1st round pick in addition to trading spots in the 1st round it would be viewed as an act of cowardism, and it would show that he has given up....

 

Cowardism. lol

Quote:After two seasons of not even coming close to .500 if GM Dave Caldwell traded down & didnt get like another 1st round pick in addition to trading spots in the 1st round it would be viewed as an act of cowardism, and it would show that he has given up....

 

He needs to draft whom he feels is the best player at #3 or talk a team into trading next years 1st in addition to this years 1st if he trades down.

So a trade from 3 to 5 should cost the Skins 2 first round picks?!?

 

For now, forget that the Skins are contempible and deserve among the very worst football fate has to offer.

 

I'd love to get that from the Skins...but I dunno how realistic that is.

How funny the meltdown would be if Caldwell drafted Mariota. How awesome it would be if he got the Browns to give up both first round picks. Never happen, but would be pretty funny.