The football season is over, and the measurements and times of the various college prospects are now official to NFL teams. In the upcoming weeks, free agency will start and NFL draft boards and needs will be adjusted as teams sign free agents and debate the comparative abilities between college players, and in many instances, weigh the strength of a free agency position vs. the strength of that same position in the draft pool.
What do you hope happens in the next couple of months? What don't you want to happen? What do you predict will happen? It doesn't necessarily have to be Jaguars related.
Hope: The Jaguars land at least two impact players in free agency. I'm not talking about mere starters. I'm talking about true difference makers for this team...guys who can make positive momentum and game changing plays, whether it be an established star, or a guy who doesn't have the big name but can thrive in our systems.
Fear: That a division foe will land one of those type players above. The thought of an explosive guy like C.J. Spiller ending up in Indy causes me indigestion. The Colts do not need any more explosive, big play ability.
Prediction: Washington DT Danny Shelton will sneak into the top 5, maybe even with Tennessee.
Hope: if the Jaguars miss out on their preferred defensive stud in the first round, they can pull off a trade down that can net them a nice haul of extra picks without moving down too far, and still land an impact player with the first pick.
Fear: The trade down causes them to miss out on a player they targeted lower, settling for a lesser player.
Prediction: WV WR Kevin White will be drafted higher than expected.
Hope: In addition to the two players mentioned in the first listed hope, that somewhere between FA and the draft, the Jaguars land a guy who can solidify RT. I think if you solidify that position, you improve the performance of the OL overall. J.J. Watt is a great player, and by all accounts he's a great guy. But watching him notch SIX (6) sacks against us in two games last year was demoralizing. Watching Ryan Kerrigan notch four sacks over the RT was nauseating. If the RT we acquire, either via FA or the draft, becomes a star with us, I'll be thrilled.
Fear: The new offensive schemes befuddle Bortles and the receivers and it takes them longer to catch on to them.
Prediction: The Falcons and Bears will draft heavily on the defensive side of the ball, and one of them, most likely the Falcons, will trade ahead of us in at least one early to mid round to get a defensive player. Tennessee will be another top ten team that should draft heavy on the defensive side of the ball.
Hope: The team solidifies the RT position either through the draft, Free Agency, current talent development, etc.
Fear: The team throws big money at Brian Bulaga and him and Brennan Williams collide with each other walking onto the field on Day One of practice and they both rupture every major tendon in both knees.
Prediction: Brandon Scherff is going to be a ho hum player in the NFL. He won't be horrible, but he won't be better than most of the other Iowa Offensive Linemen.
Hope: The team adds playmaking talent to the Offense, whether in the form of TE, RB, or even WR.
Fear: Julius Thomas (see above)
Prediction: Someone is going to fall in love with Vic Beasely and draft him higher than the position they are going to use him in warrants.
Quote:Hope: The team solidifies the RT position either through the draft, Free Agency, current talent development, etc.
Fear: The team throws big money at Brian Bulaga and him and Brennan Williams collide with each other walking onto the field on Day One of practice and they both rupture every major tendon in both knees.
Prediction: Brandon Scherff is going to be a ho hum player in the NFL. He won't be horrible, but he won't be better than most of the other Iowa Offensive Linemen.
Hope: The team adds playmaking talent to the Offense, whether in the form of TE, RB, or even WR.
Fear: Julius Thomas (see above)
Prediction: Someone is going to fall in love with Vic Beasely and draft him higher than the position they are going to use him in warrants.
Regarding your Scherff prediction, I think he will be better than Robert Gallery, that's for sure. If his career approximates Steinbach's, he'll be just fine.
Your fears are strangely reminiscent of the 2000 season, where Leon Searcy ruptured his bicep (?) first day of training camp and was lost for the year, and his career, in Jacksonville.
Ugh.
Hope: The Jags get a shot at taking Leonard Williams.
Fear: The Colts draft Todd Gurley and he turns into a stud for them.
Prediction: Amari Cooper is the third wide receiver taken.
Hope: The Raiders continue to draft well and ascend as a team (they're my second favorite team now since they went in Rounds 1-2 last year the way I wanted the Jags to go).
Fear: Clowney returns to full strength and kills us for a decade.
Prediction: The Jags do not trade down in this draft.
I hope we draft Leonard or Amari.
That 2000 season in a lot of ways shaped me as a football fan, so yeah I can see how it would bleed through into a thread like this.
One other prediction though, I'm betting that Bradley and Babich absolutely fell in love with the Harvard LB, Hodges and the way he went about the Combine. Did you see the intensity that he brought? I don't think he'll be an above average player in the League, but you gotta believe that coaches love the way he approaches football.
Hope that we take Williams.. After the last handful of seasons that this franchise endured, fear is officially overrated. Fear ran a 12.1 40 time, lifted 20 pounds only once and broke its ankle doing the broad jump..
Quote:Hope: The Jags get a shot at taking Leonard Williams.
Fear: The Colts draft Todd Gurley and he turns into a stud for them.
Prediction: Amari Cooper is the third wide receiver taken.
Hope: The Raiders continue to draft well and ascend as a team (they're my second favorite team now since they went in Rounds 1-2 last year the way I wanted the Jags to go).
Fear: Clowney returns to full strength and kills us for a decade.
Prediction: The Jags do not trade down in this draft.
Re hope 1-lots of people share that hope.
Fear 1: That too is enough to give me indigestion.
Prediction 1: What WRs do you see going ahead of Cooper?
I absolutely share your second fear, though I think the odds of that have decreased due to his microfracture surgery.
Hope: Blake Bortles progresses into a Top 12 QB this year
Fear: Texans find their QB in the 2nd or 3rd round
Prediction: Winston nor Mariota will turn out to be all that great.
Hope: That the Jags sign Jerry Hughes - DE Leo - Bills on the first day of Free Agency.
If the Titans WAKE UP and draft Marcus Mariota then the Jags will have their Leo opposite Leonard "Big Cat" Williams.
If the Titans SCREW UP and draft Leonard Williams, then the Jags draft Dante Fowler as their Otto LB.
One thing I noticed this season is Dante Fowler stood up and played OLB more downs than he did as a hands in the dirt DE.
In either case, the Jags will have a pass rush coming from both sides and will have dynamic playmakers to rush the passer.
Fear: That the Jags will not find another RB to augment the running game. The Jags will need a running game to help make Blake Bortles the QB he needs to be. I feel confident that the Shoelace and Toby will have better years in 2015 than they did in 2014, but the Jags need that one more player, which I hope they draft in Rd 3, by the name of David Johnson out of Northern Iowa.
Prediction: The Jags will take their next step have a record equal to better than 7 wins 9 losses in 2015. (safe bet)
Quote:Hope: The team solidifies the RT position either through the draft, Free Agency, current talent development, etc.
Fear: The team throws big money at Brian Bulaga and him and Brennan Williams collide with each other walking onto the field on Day One of practice and they both rupture every major tendon in both knees.
Prediction: Brandon Scherff is going to be a ho hum player in the NFL. He won't be horrible, but he won't be better than most of the other Iowa Offensive Linemen.
Hope: The team adds playmaking talent to the Offense, whether in the form of TE, RB, or even WR.
Fear: Julius Thomas (see above)
Prediction: Someone is going to fall in love with Vic Beasely and draft him higher than the position they are going to use him in warrants.
It will be interesting to see what spot of the draft Brandon Scherff ends up. I recall back in 2012, Riley Reiff was projected by most to be a top 7 to 15 pick but he lasted to pick # 23 very likely because he doesn't have long arms. Scherff's arm length is in the same range as Reiff's. Both have the versatility to play most Offensive Line positions and have very good intangibles. In 2014, Reiff graded out by PFF as the 15th best LT in the NFL. It seems like they assessed his play well. Scherff probably won't drop as far as Reiff did but it wouldn't surprise me if he doesn't land in the top 10 of the 2015 Draft.
Hope: We get Todd Gurley in the 2nd round and he stays healthy his whole career and ends up being one of the Top 5 running backs ever.
Fear: Either the Colts get the above scenario, or we draft him and his knee ends up being so bad he never touches the field.
Prediction: Gurley goes to the Seahawks.
Hope: That the quality free agents available and targeted by Caldwell have a desire to play for the Jags with reasonable dollars. Getting the glaring holes addressed in free agency delivers a better capability to draft the best players available (and less on need), which will build a better short-term and long-term roster.
Fear: That the 3-4 truly impact free agents needed will not be realized.
Prediction: That Dave is only able to attract 1 or 2 impact free agents by significantly overpaying them, and the remainder of the free agents are mediocre at best when you look beyond the recognizable names.
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Hope2: That the Jags do find a partner to trade down slightly, gaining an additional pick(s), and are still able to pick up a stud that can make a difference with their first pick (ie. one of the edge rushers).
Fear2: That free agency didn't adequately fill the needs as hoped, and the Jags take an OT with the first pick (possible in a trade down).
Prediction2: That the Jags stay put and take Williams, or Fowler if unavailable, to strengthen the defense.
Quote:Hope: The Jags get a shot at taking Leonard Williams.
Fear: The Colts draft Todd Gurley and he turns into a stud for them.
Prediction: Amari Cooper is the third wide receiver taken.
Hope: The Raiders continue to draft well and ascend as a team (they're my second favorite team now since they went in Rounds 1-2 last year the way I wanted the Jags to go).
Fear: Clowney returns to full strength and kills us for a decade.
Prediction: The Jags do not trade down in this draft.
I'll one up you that Amari Cooper will be the 4th receiver taken. Dorial Green Beckham.
Also, don't worry about Clowney coming close to being the player he once was or could have been. Microfracture knee surgery is kiss of death for all explosive athletes. Worse than a torn achilles.
Quote:Hope: That the Jags sign Jerry Hughes - DE Leo - Bills on the first day of Free Agency.
There is an argument that Hughes is more of a product of the surrounding players (Pro bowlers Mario Williams, Kevin Williams, and Marcel Dareus) and that without all of that surrounding front seven talent, he would not be as productive.
Do you (Stigma and the board generally) think this is true?
If so, do you think there is enough talent here to enable to replicate his Buffalo productivity? This was a unit that produced over 40 sacks.
Quote:Hope that we take Williams.. After the last handful of seasons that this franchise endured, fear is officially overrated. Fear ran a 12.1 40 time, lifted 20 pounds only once and broke its ankle doing the broad jump..
I want to laugh and cry at the same time after reading this.
Quote:It will be interesting to see what spot of the draft Brandon Scherff ends up. I recall back in 2012, Riley Reiff was projected by most to be a top 7 to 15 pick but he lasted to pick # 23 very likely because he doesn't have long arms. Scherff's arm length is in the same range as Reiff's. Both have the versatility to play most Offensive Line positions and have very good intangibles. In 2014, Reiff graded out by PFF as the 15th best LT in the NFL. It seems like they assessed his play well. Scherff probably won't drop as far as Reiff did but it wouldn't surprise me if he doesn't land in the top 10 of the 2015 Draft.
I guess I am a huge fan of Scherff. I like him better than Reiff, and Reiff wasn't bad coming out of Iowa.
I will say this...if Scherff drops out of the top ten, and the Jaguars somehow traded out of the top ten (i.e. hypothetical trade for both of Cleveland's first rounders), I would not object to the Jaguars drafting him at all, especially if RT is not adequately addressed in free agency.
Quote:Hope: That the quality free agents available and targeted by Caldwell have a desire to play for the Jags with reasonable dollars. Getting the glaring holes addressed in free agency delivers a better capability to draft the best players available (and less on need), which will build a better short-term and long-term roster.
Fear: That the 3-4 truly impact free agents needed will not be realized.
Prediction: That Dave is only able to attract 1 or 2 impact free agents by significantly overpaying them, and the remainder of the free agents are mediocre at best when you look beyond the recognizable names.
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Hope2: That the Jags do find a partner to trade down slightly, gaining an additional pick(s), and are still able to pick up a stud that can make a difference with their first pick (ie. one of the edge rushers).
Fear2: That free agency didn't adequately fill the needs as hoped, and the Jags take an OT with the first pick (possible in a trade down).
Prediction2: That the Jags stay put and take Williams, or Fowler if unavailable, to strengthen the defense.
Regarding your 2nd fear, is that more of a reflection of your antipathy towards the tackle prospects at the top of this draft, an aversion to drafting tackles high as a general rule, or a desire to address a different position in the draft?
In my opinion, Jerry Hughes all by himself is not going to solve all the Jags Pass Rush issues, but combine him with a rotation of Chris Clemons, Andre Branch and Ryan Davis manning the Leo position and all four players will feed off each other.
The Jags need to keep the pressure up and in critical situations they need to make sure the opposing QB hurries his throws resulting in an incomplete pass and the defense off the field.
Sacks are wonderful but in the end, QB Hurries are sufficient to get the Defense off the field and give the Jags offense more opportunities.
I want Jerry Hughes with the Jags whether we draft Leonard Williams or Dante Fowler. Leonard Williams can man the 5 Tech and Dante Fowler played a standup OLB all throughout the 2014 college season. Rotate Fowler and Davis at the Otto in pass rush situations and put as much pressure on the QB as possible.
Pressure KILLS QB accuracy.
Quote:In my opinion, Jerry Hughes all by himself is not going to solve all the Jags Pass Rush issues, but combine him with a rotation of Chris Clemons, Andre Branch and Ryan Davis manning the Leo position and all four players will feed off each other.
The Jags need to keep the pressure up and in critical situations they need to make sure the opposing QB hurries his throws resulting in an incomplete pass and the defense off the field.
Sacks are wonderful but in the end, QB Hurries are sufficient to get the Defense off the field and give the Jags offense more opportunities.
I want Jerry Hughes with the Jags whether we draft Leonard Williams or Dante Fowler. Leonard Williams can man the 5 Tech and Dante Fowler played a standup OLB all throughout the 2014 college season. Rotate Fowler and Davis at the Otto in pass rush situations and put as much pressure on the QB as possible.
Pressure KILLS QB accuracy.
So you think he isn't a true dominator, but within the context of the scheme and team, he would be productive here?
I am inclined to agree but with a caveat.
There may be a time-maybe soon-where he will have to be "the guy" due to Clemons' age. I'm not sure if he can do it.