12-09-2014, 12:15 PM
Long time before the game, but I'm impatient. So here's my first attempt to figure the matchup after spending a few days learning about Oregon. I'll admit, I know a lot more about FSU than Oregon and am almost certainly biased. But I think we all are to some extent. I also believe in advanced statistics with the proviso I'm also going to look for what they're not taking into account.
When FSU has the ball:
The conversation has to start with Winston. He's polarizing both in terms of his off-field incidents and on-field play. For those that have followed the post game interviews with Jimbo, they know that many (probably about half) of his interceptions have been because of issues with young receivers. Either misreading a defense and running the wrong route, giving up on a route because the coverage is fairly tight, or the usual dropsies and tipped passes that every receiving corps has resulting in some interceptions. He had a stinker against UF. Possibly because he was also prepping for a 10 hour hearing in a few days where his lawyer wasn't allowed to speak. Basically, I'm confident that there's still a consensus he's a top 10 QB in the nation and I personally feel he's the best QB in college today.
Oregon has an average defense for a ranked team (Ranked #18 in adjusted defensive efficiency). They allow a lot of long drives (in terms of plays) and are not great in yards per play. They allow TDs on 61% of redzone possessions and allow a 42% conversion rate on 3rd down (84th in the nation). Those last stats are not adjusted. They also have 25 takeaways on defense, good for #25 in the country. Largely because of the takeaways they have a decent scoring defense and they faced the 20th toughest schedule in terms of offenses faced in the country.
FSU has an very good offense for a ranked team (#7 in adjusted efficiency). This includes 27 turnovers good for 11th worst in the nation. When they eliminate the turnovers, they are one of the top 2-3 offenses in the country again. They score TDs on 61% of their redzone possessions and convert 47% of 3rd downs (20th in the nation). They actually faced the #1 toughest row of defenses in the country according to football outsiders. UF, Clemson, Virginia, and Louisville are all in the top 15 of adjusted defense and feature many NFL prospects that I've seen talked about on here for the Jags.
The disparity between the advanced stats and the points per game for these teams is easily explained. Oregon is #6 in opponent's starting field position. Their offense moves the ball, kick coverage is generally good, and the other team has to go a long way. FSU is #73 in starting field position for themselves.
Fortunately for FSU fans, turnovers and field position are two factors that are most variable game to game. We've shown we can take care of the ball and Winston will have to be careful not to do too much. We also need to avoid penalties on returns, especially kick returns, that give us 90 yard fields.
The other key will be FSU's young talented receivers like Rudolph. Oregon will try to take away Green, O'Leary, and Cook. They can't shut down all three, but when FSU has a fourth option that's working they're practically unstoppable. It's also important to note that there will be a lot of plays in this game due to the other side of the ball. That means we can't wear down our stars too much.
FSU will get a lot of points assuming they can avoid turnovers and get even average field position. They can dominate this defense if Rudolph has one of his better games against the single coverage he's likely to receive like he did against Notre Dame, Louisville, Syracuse, and Miami.
When Oregon has the ball:
Marcus Mariota is an outstanding college QB. He has seven players averaging over 13 yards a catch and with at least 17 catches. He completes 68% of his passes and has over 10 yards an attempt. Oregon capitalizes on confusion and he has many easy throws to open receivers. They're top 5 in all the adjusted yards per play statistics (running, passing, short distance, long distance) in addition to running more plays than almost anyone. They convert 51% of 3rd downs (#6 in the country) and score TDs on 67% of redzone attempts. They also take care of the ball with only 8 turnovers all year. That is tops in the nation 3 ahead of the second place teams USCw, Kansas State, UTEP, and UGA.
FSU's defense has been below average for a ranked team (#26 in adjusted efficiency). They only allow TDs on 52% of redzone attempts but are even worse than Oregon on 3rd down, allowing a 43% conversion rate (95th in the nation). They've also snagged a lot of turnovers, 24, good for 27th in the nation. Most of the success against FSU has been blown coverages or power rushing attacks.
Oregon's defense has faced the 33rd toughest array of defenses in the country. FSU's defense has faced the 10th toughest array of offenses. Georgia Tech, Miami, and Boston College are all in the top 18 of adjusted offensive efficiency while all suffered from porous defenses.
The good news for FSU is that Oregon's offense plays into FSU's strengths. Oregon spreads the field, makes D-Lineman try to run and make tackles in space, and make the LBs and secondary play sideline to sideline. FSU's best defense comes when they're in the nickel package asking Ramsay to do everything. Since Oregon didn't play USC this year, this unit will be the most athletic D-Line they've faced.
The key number however, is only 35. Oregon is 2-3 over the past three years when held to 35 points or fewer. The past two bowls they've been held to 35 and 30 points. They're good, but when teams have extra time to prepare, Oregon is a lot less effective. It's hard to simulate the tempo and complexity of their offense with only a few days against the scout team. They did win both of those bowl games because Texas and Kansas State were inept on offense each getting held to under 300 yards and under 20 points.
I expect Oregon to move the ball, have to settle for field goals a lot more than they're used to, and be in that 28-35 point range on offense.
Overall-way-too-early-conclusion:
FSU's defense will perform better than many expect and frustrate Oregon. FSU will keep pace on the other end and get lots of yards. Redzone is the key FSU advantage and turnover history and field position favors Oregon. If turnovers are even, I think it comes down to the last possession. With these QBs, probably whoever has the ball last wins. Think Young (Mariota) vs. Leinart (Winston). If we can get anyone going outside our top 3 weapons going on offense and keep even in turnovers, FSU wins going away. If Oregon can turn Winston over or Cook's fumblitis from early in the year resurface, Oregon wins going away.
Final prediction:
FSU - 35
Oregon - 30
When FSU has the ball:
The conversation has to start with Winston. He's polarizing both in terms of his off-field incidents and on-field play. For those that have followed the post game interviews with Jimbo, they know that many (probably about half) of his interceptions have been because of issues with young receivers. Either misreading a defense and running the wrong route, giving up on a route because the coverage is fairly tight, or the usual dropsies and tipped passes that every receiving corps has resulting in some interceptions. He had a stinker against UF. Possibly because he was also prepping for a 10 hour hearing in a few days where his lawyer wasn't allowed to speak. Basically, I'm confident that there's still a consensus he's a top 10 QB in the nation and I personally feel he's the best QB in college today.
Oregon has an average defense for a ranked team (Ranked #18 in adjusted defensive efficiency). They allow a lot of long drives (in terms of plays) and are not great in yards per play. They allow TDs on 61% of redzone possessions and allow a 42% conversion rate on 3rd down (84th in the nation). Those last stats are not adjusted. They also have 25 takeaways on defense, good for #25 in the country. Largely because of the takeaways they have a decent scoring defense and they faced the 20th toughest schedule in terms of offenses faced in the country.
FSU has an very good offense for a ranked team (#7 in adjusted efficiency). This includes 27 turnovers good for 11th worst in the nation. When they eliminate the turnovers, they are one of the top 2-3 offenses in the country again. They score TDs on 61% of their redzone possessions and convert 47% of 3rd downs (20th in the nation). They actually faced the #1 toughest row of defenses in the country according to football outsiders. UF, Clemson, Virginia, and Louisville are all in the top 15 of adjusted defense and feature many NFL prospects that I've seen talked about on here for the Jags.
The disparity between the advanced stats and the points per game for these teams is easily explained. Oregon is #6 in opponent's starting field position. Their offense moves the ball, kick coverage is generally good, and the other team has to go a long way. FSU is #73 in starting field position for themselves.
Fortunately for FSU fans, turnovers and field position are two factors that are most variable game to game. We've shown we can take care of the ball and Winston will have to be careful not to do too much. We also need to avoid penalties on returns, especially kick returns, that give us 90 yard fields.
The other key will be FSU's young talented receivers like Rudolph. Oregon will try to take away Green, O'Leary, and Cook. They can't shut down all three, but when FSU has a fourth option that's working they're practically unstoppable. It's also important to note that there will be a lot of plays in this game due to the other side of the ball. That means we can't wear down our stars too much.
FSU will get a lot of points assuming they can avoid turnovers and get even average field position. They can dominate this defense if Rudolph has one of his better games against the single coverage he's likely to receive like he did against Notre Dame, Louisville, Syracuse, and Miami.
When Oregon has the ball:
Marcus Mariota is an outstanding college QB. He has seven players averaging over 13 yards a catch and with at least 17 catches. He completes 68% of his passes and has over 10 yards an attempt. Oregon capitalizes on confusion and he has many easy throws to open receivers. They're top 5 in all the adjusted yards per play statistics (running, passing, short distance, long distance) in addition to running more plays than almost anyone. They convert 51% of 3rd downs (#6 in the country) and score TDs on 67% of redzone attempts. They also take care of the ball with only 8 turnovers all year. That is tops in the nation 3 ahead of the second place teams USCw, Kansas State, UTEP, and UGA.
FSU's defense has been below average for a ranked team (#26 in adjusted efficiency). They only allow TDs on 52% of redzone attempts but are even worse than Oregon on 3rd down, allowing a 43% conversion rate (95th in the nation). They've also snagged a lot of turnovers, 24, good for 27th in the nation. Most of the success against FSU has been blown coverages or power rushing attacks.
Oregon's defense has faced the 33rd toughest array of defenses in the country. FSU's defense has faced the 10th toughest array of offenses. Georgia Tech, Miami, and Boston College are all in the top 18 of adjusted offensive efficiency while all suffered from porous defenses.
The good news for FSU is that Oregon's offense plays into FSU's strengths. Oregon spreads the field, makes D-Lineman try to run and make tackles in space, and make the LBs and secondary play sideline to sideline. FSU's best defense comes when they're in the nickel package asking Ramsay to do everything. Since Oregon didn't play USC this year, this unit will be the most athletic D-Line they've faced.
The key number however, is only 35. Oregon is 2-3 over the past three years when held to 35 points or fewer. The past two bowls they've been held to 35 and 30 points. They're good, but when teams have extra time to prepare, Oregon is a lot less effective. It's hard to simulate the tempo and complexity of their offense with only a few days against the scout team. They did win both of those bowl games because Texas and Kansas State were inept on offense each getting held to under 300 yards and under 20 points.
I expect Oregon to move the ball, have to settle for field goals a lot more than they're used to, and be in that 28-35 point range on offense.
Overall-way-too-early-conclusion:
FSU's defense will perform better than many expect and frustrate Oregon. FSU will keep pace on the other end and get lots of yards. Redzone is the key FSU advantage and turnover history and field position favors Oregon. If turnovers are even, I think it comes down to the last possession. With these QBs, probably whoever has the ball last wins. Think Young (Mariota) vs. Leinart (Winston). If we can get anyone going outside our top 3 weapons going on offense and keep even in turnovers, FSU wins going away. If Oregon can turn Winston over or Cook's fumblitis from early in the year resurface, Oregon wins going away.
Final prediction:
FSU - 35
Oregon - 30
