Jacksonville Jaguars Fan Forums

There is little point in rehashing the bad bad W-L record our Jaguars have endured over the past few years.  We've endured it first hand.  Nevertheless, it is understandable that fans, weary from all of the losing, have a visceral response to the product and throw any and everyone under the bus, from players to coaches to the GM to the owner.  However, what often gets lost in the moment of frustration is a broader perspective.

 

One of the things people, including myself, people have cited to explain the poor performance of the team thus far is the role of inexperience.  Yesterday, the Jaguars played SIX (6) rookies yesterday, starting 5-all on the offensive side of the ball.  Those rookies were:

 

QB Blake Bortles

WR Allen Robinson

WR Allen Hurns

C Luke Bowanko

RG Brandon Linder

 

and RB Storm Johnson had playing time.

 

If I had to read the tea leaves, I suspect Johnson will be a starting RB for the Jaguars soon.

 

Also keep in mind Marqise Lee has started two games thus far this season, and he likely would have started at least one of the last two barring his own injuries.

 

In an attempt to gain a broader perspective and better understanding on our losing, I examined the starting lineups of the worst teams in football dating back to 1980.  No team I examined had a record of better than 4 wins.

 

Of all of the teams with 4 wins or less dating back to 1980, only three (3) teams besides this year's Jaguars team has had 6 or more rookies in the starting lineup at any one time.  Number in parenthesis is the number of rookie starters, according to profootballreference.com   Those teams were the 1983 Oilers (8), the 1999 Cleveland Browns (6), and the 2001 Buffalo Bills (6). 

 

A few points of explanation are in order.  First, the 1983 draft was known as the best and deepest draft in NFL history.  It was 12 rounds in length and only 28 teams picked.  Guys like Richard Dent and Mark Clayton were found in the 8th and 9th rounds.  Secondly, the 1999 Cleveland Browns were an expansion team.  Finally, with all of those teams, the rookie starters were evenly distributed between the offense and defense.  With the Jaguars, all of the rookies that started yesterday were on offense.  Based upon history, that is a most unusual distribution of talent.

 

But surprisingly, very few of the teams had as many rookie starters as this years Jaguars.

 

I see several possibilities to explain this.

 

1.  Coaches are generally loathe to start rookies, even in rebuilding situations like the one we face here in Jacksonville.  I think this is due to one of two related factors below: 

 

2.  rookies typically are not refined enough in their games to readily supplant starters in their rookie years.

 

3.  Rookies make mistakes that make it more difficult for teams to win, even in rebuilding situations.

 

4.  The Jaguars roster was so talent depleted coming into this offseason, the team had no real choice but to start rookies, even in positions where more experienced players were preferable;

 

5.  Maybe despite the current record, the Jaguars rookie class was actually a very good one.

 

This ties into my second conclusion.  Just because the team is in the midst of a horrible stretch of losing, that fact in itself does not necessarily mean the team is headed in the wrong direction.  There are several teams within the parameters of this study that leap to mind.

 

The 1985 Buffalo Bills finished with a record of 2-14, which followed a 2-14 record the year before.  However, despite finishing that season with a 2-14 record, they wound up drafting a couple of Hall of Famers in that class who would eventually take them to four straight Super Bowls:  DE Bruce Smith and WR Andre Reed.

 

The Carolina Panthers hav had several disastrous seasons in their history.  2001 was one of those seasons, and they finished 1-15 that year.  However, their rookie class that year produced three quality starters that played in their one Super Bowl year a couple of seasons later:  DT Kris Jenkins, LB Dan Morgan, and S Deon Grant.

 

Of course, Dallas' ascent to champion is a well chronicled journey.  Landry's last year in Dallas (1988) was 3-13, while Jimmy Johnson's first year in Dallas (1989) was 1-15.  Even though their records were horrible those two seasons (4-28 overall), they had several key contributors to Super Bowl teams already on that roster, which included HOF WR Michael Irvin, Pro Bowl LB Ken Norton Jr., 5 time Pro Bowl G Nate Newton, OL Kevin Gogan, and 1989 rookie draft picks HOF QB Troy Aikman, and pro bowlers FB Daryl Johnston and C Mark Stepnoski.

 

Of course, history is also replete with teams that never ascended from the dregs to above mediocre within a reasonable period of time.  But the point is it is probable better days lay ahead for us despite the poor record over the past few years, and it is quite possible we'll see the results sooner (within the next year) rather than later.

yes, if some of these young players we have drafted turn out to be studs, we will be in good shape.

 

it remains to be seen whether we have drafted difference makers.

If this team gets lessons from losing they should all be Einsteins by now

Another A+ thread Bullseye and its much needed.

Quote:yes, if some of these young players we have drafted turn out to be studs, we will be in good shape.

 

it remains to be seen whether we have drafted difference makers.

I think we have drafted SOME difference makers (Bortles, Robinson, Lee, Hurns)

 

To me the question is have we drafted ENOUGH difference makers (Joeckel, Cyprien, Linder, Gratz, Bowanko, Colvin, Johnson, T. Smith)?

I was just hoping a nice jump in performance from our 2013 draft class in 2014....  

 

Joeckel has been average at best.

 

Cyprien has been average, solid but nothing that stands out in a positive way.

 

Gratz has been benched for poor play as well and is now recovering from a concussion.  He hasn't shown thus far to be improving.

 

Ace Sanders hasn't shown that he can be a good punt returner in the NFL yet.  He's been alright but he also didn't take that next step from his rookie year, partially due to being suspended for the 1st 4 games.

 

Denard Robinson was terrible in his 1st year, and has improved in the 2nd in terms of ball security.  He still hasn't shown much to say we can build with him going forward.  Has potential though.

 

Josh Evans has been a poor safety in his 1st year and was benched early this year in favor of Winston Guy.  He hasn't had many dumb plays like Guy, but he also has missed more than his fair share of tackles thus far.  A definite upgrade is needed here.  I think Evans is depth at best.

 

Jeremy Harris - hurt in 1st year, and never played in his 2nd year.

 

Demetrius McCray - it's funny, but the last pick in McCray is playing better than Gratz has and I believe will be our starting corner.  Like the pick.

 

 

So overall, I had higher hopes for this draft class.  They're still young and can improve, but it's disappointing. 

The problem I have with all of these positive post is they all are based on "ifs"

 

If this player becomes good

 

If the plan works

 

If this guy is a difference maker

 

It's all "ifs"

Quote:The problem I have with all of these positive post is they all are based on "ifs"

 

If this player becomes good

 

If the plan works

 

If this guy is a difference maker

 

It's all "ifs"

How exactly is that different for ANY player on ANY team in the NFL?  Nothing is guaranteed, but apparently you think it should be when it comes to this team. 

Quote:The problem I have with all of these positive post is they all are based on "ifs"

 

If this player becomes good

 

If the plan works

 

If this guy is a difference maker

 

It's all "ifs"

 

Unfortunately, that's all we have.

 

By the end of this year, we need to see some dominance from Joeckel, some playmaking ability (big plays including sacks, FFs, INTs, etc) from Cyprien, and solid play from Gratz.

 

If we don't, we will likely be terrible yet again next year.

Quote:How exactly is that different for ANY player on ANY team in the NFL?  Nothing is guaranteed, but apparently you think it should be when it comes to this team. 

Because when a right plan is in place there is this little thing called progress.  Since last season there has been 0 of that and no evidence of this plan working. 

Quote:The problem I have with all of these positive post is they all are based on "ifs"

 

If this player becomes good

 

If the plan works

 

If this guy is a difference maker

 

It's all "ifs"

How is my post a "positive" post?

Quote:Another A+ thread Bullseye and its much needed.

Thank you.

 

I still want to know from jaguarmvp how my post was positive?

Quote:Thank you.

 

I still want to know from jaguarmvp how my post was positive?

 

I think it was the glaring lack of acetylene torches...I'm somewhat new here, but if you aren't spewing venom, you're seeing through "teal colored glasses" or drinking "teal kool aid." Not much room for a mid ground around here, is there??

Quote:I think it was the glaring lack of acetylene torches...I'm somewhat new here, but if you aren't spewing venom, you're seeing through "teal colored glasses" or drinking "teal kool aid." Not much room for a mid ground around here, is there??

Middle ground? No its black or white and we take no prisoners!

Hello all - new to the forum.  Lets all just realize that this year is a rebuilding year.   IF we are losing this bad next year, then I will be the first calling for Gus's resignation.  But until then, lets root for improvement and trust in Blake and hope for the best.

 

PS - if we are drafting in the top 5, am I the only one who would take Landon Collins as our first pick?

Quote:Middle ground? No its black or white and we take no prisoners!

 

Apparently...mind you, I got a chuckle reading your response and then reading your signature. My mind works oddly, as I had a mental picture of running away from an angry, paperbag-wearing mob barefoot because someone else had my shoes.

Quote:Because when a right plan is in place there is this little thing called progress.  Since last season there has been 0 of that and no evidence of this plan working. 

 

You don't see any progress with Bortles at the helm?  It was only 3 points but he did score on the opening drive.  Sure he made a boneheaded rookie play but that is kinda of the point of throwing him in there.

 

Red flags for Bortles?  He tries too hard?  Is that what we are looking at with a honest assessment.

 

By choosing to turn over 2/3 of the roster and go with a full rebuild (Fans were calling for that when Gene was given the Heave Ho), this is what you get.  I don't think 2015 is some magical year of guaranteed success.  For now, I'm enjoying watching a young QB that actual reads the positions of players and attempts to marry the game plan to the film study.  He is doing it fairly well but has more work to accomplish his goals.  What is wrong with that?

 

I've typed it before and now again.  Patience sucks.  But that is all we got with 5-6 rookies starting.

Quote:If this team gets lessons from losing they should all be Einsteins by now

 

Post of the week. 

good read bullseye.

I guess it all kind'a depends on if we get some of those superstar 'studs'. Since the 'powers that be' decided to go the youth route, all we (or they) can do is hope and keep roll'n the dice. The odds are that sooner or later we'll hit the magic combination and things will turn around for us. I just hope the franchise can survive such a prolonged period of losing...

Lessons from losing.......very appropiate title. I think the biggest lesson (s) that some of us have learned (including myself) is that we placed too much enthusiasm and optimism on this version of the Jaguars. Moves were made in the off season to bolster this team and (on paper) it was hard NOT to get excited. But the reality of it all is that after 5 games thus far, this team has proven that it simply isn't a very good football team. That knocks the sail out of a lot of us who thought for certain it was going to be a breakout year full of excitement. The fact of the matter is that there are not many bright spots to focus on so I'll put out a blanket statement that "everyone" has stunk it up at one time or another and that both the offense and defense are like dysfunctional children that need a ton of attention. That said, the coaching staff cannot be excused for not preparing this team properly and using the talent that it has to their game plans and instead they are trying to put a round peg into a square hole in terms of matching talent to offensive and defensive schemes. Early on, many were crying for Henne's head and when they got their wish, unfortunately the results at the end of four quarters was not any better with Bortles at the helm. Perhaps, we can all do ourselves a big favor and come to terms with the fact that even if this team ends up going 8-8......that would probably be considered an over achievement. I think we all got caught up in the expectation phenom and now that reality has set in, none of us like the taste of it. One can only hope the somehow we manage to salvage some sort of a season out of this yet. But, if we don't............maybe it just proves our eyes were bigger than our bellys could handle.