Quote:Actually, I was wrong when I said a 4th round pick and a 5th round pick. Picks 105 and 114 would be both of our our 4th round picks. Those are picks we could use on a guard and a center. That's a tough decision.
I would have to be very convinced that the QB I was targeting was the guy, AND that we had guard and center taken care of without those picks.
Du'h.
I wish I had paid attention more closely to that post.
A 4th and a 5th would not be cost prohibitive.
Two 4th round picks is tougher.
I might be more inclined to trade up and give up 2 4th round picks if we somehow traded back from 3 and accumulated more picks.
Quote:Du'h.
I wish I had paid attention more closely to that post.
A 4th and a 5th would not be cost prohibitive.
Two 4th round picks is tougher.
I might be more inclined to trade up and give up 2 4th round picks if we somehow traded back from 3 and accumulated more picks.
I can see now why it take balls to trade up. Richard Sherman was a 5th round pick. Cam Chancellor was a 6th round pick. I'm sure there's a lengthy list of 28th overall picks who sucked.
Derek Harvey, Quentin Groves. That's how you blow an entire draft trading up. Jimmy Johnson always wanted to trade down. More picks, more picks, more picks.
Quote:No, I placed no such limits in this speculation.
That said, I would not do such a trade.
The idea of somehow moving up without giving up any picks this year other than the 39 would be intriguing, but I am loathe to give up a # 1 next year.
If our season took a turn for the worse, we could be in position to get an impact player next year. We'd really jones for that first round pick.
I understand that completely. Trading up is always tricky because it means that there is
someone that you are going to miss out on, regardless of who you draft.
Regarding Marty's draft value chart and the requirement for both Fourth Round selections to move up, would you instead package the lower Fourth, a Fifth, and a Sixth instead? Would that make it more palatable or worse in your eyes?
Quote:The more I think about this, the less inclined I am to trade back into the 1st round. This is especially true if we're offering up our 2015 first rounder in exchange.
Personally, the 2015 draft has the potential to be the one where trading up might make sense depending on how things go this year. I'd hate to tie our hands next year when the possibility of landing a genuine franchise QB exists.
The way I see it:
1) If we stay at 3 and do not take a QB, it will increase the chances/need of trading up later if the QBs fall to the late first round.
2) If we stay at 3 and take a QB, there will be significantly lower need/chance of trading back up into the bottom of the first round.
3) If we trade back from 3 and do not take a QB first, the need to trade back up will be there, but because we'll have even more picks, the likelihood of trading up will increase.
4) If we trade back from 3 and take a QB first, the need and likelihood of trading up are significantly diminished.
5) If we somehow trade up from 3 and don't take a QB, the need to trade up later will be there, but unless we somehow get a huge bargain in the deal up, the likelihood will decrease due to lack of picks.
Quote:I understand that completely. Trading up is always tricky because it means that there is someone that you are going to miss out on, regardless of who you draft.
Regarding Marty's draft value chart and the requirement for both Fourth Round selections to move up, would you instead package the lower Fourth, a Fifth, and a Sixth instead? Would that make it more palatable or worse in your eyes?
A 4th, 5th and 6th would be more palatable to move up than 2 4ths.
The odds of finding starters below the 4th round are slim, even for our team.
I think the teams to trade up with if that happens where Clev has their QB, are the 49ers, Sea, Den and NE, KC and Carolina are not loaded enough to miss out on first round talent like those teams are.
Quote:I can see now why it take balls to trade up. Richard Sherman was a 5th round pick. Cam Chancellor was a 6th round pick. I'm sure there's a lengthy list of 28th overall picks who sucked.
Derek Harvey, Quentin Groves. That's how you blow an entire draft trading up. Jimmy Johnson always wanted to trade down. More picks, more picks, more picks.
Well, I'm sure Bradley will appreciate the ability of late draft picks to contribute.
As far as Jimmy Johnson, he was willing to trade up on occasion. He traded up for Emmitt Smith in 1990 and Russell Maryland in 1991, but he believed in trading down to get more bites out of the apple.
He and Bill Walsh were two masters of the draft.
Quote:If that meant getting a QB, I might pull the trigger on that.
A 4th and 5th would not be cost prohibitive, IMO.
Yup plus we have stock piled picks for this reason, losing a 4th and a 5th when we have two 4ths and three 5ths and two 6ths, you would be stupid to not trade up to get the guy you want, the % of chances of those 4th and 5th round picks being any good is way lower then a player in the 1st round that you covet.
Carolina would definitely be a good trade up partner for anyone. Their WRs, O-line, and secondary is probably the worst in the league so they should definitely want to stockpile picks.
Quote:I can see now why it take balls to trade up. Richard Sherman was a 5th round pick. Cam Chancellor was a 6th round pick. I'm sure there's a lengthy list of 28th overall picks who sucked.
Derek Harvey, Quentin Groves. That's how you blow an entire draft trading up. Jimmy Johnson always wanted to trade down. More picks, more picks, more picks.
Its rare that you find those kinda gems in the 5th and 6th round even more so for the same team, but like my other post says, we will still have 4th, 5th and 6th round picks even after trading two of them
Quote:Yup plus we have stock piled picks for this reason, losing a 4th and a 5th when we have two 4ths and three 5ths and two 6ths, you would be stupid to not trade up to get the guy you want, the % of chances of those 4th and 5th round picks being any good is way lower then a player in the 1st round that you covet.
This I agree completely with.
You stockpile draft picks for three reasons:
1) You think a draft is particularly deep;
2) You have lots of holes on your roster; or
3) You want the ammunition needed to trade up, if desired.
Quote:The more I think about this, the less inclined I am to trade back into the 1st round. This is especially true if we're offering up our 2015 first rounder in exchange.
Personally, the 2015 draft has the potential to be the one where trading up might make sense depending on how things go this year. I'd hate to tie our hands next year when the possibility of landing a genuine franchise QB exists.
Never, EVER, trade away future years draft choices. Let the bad front offices do that. Be the team that is GETTING those future picks, not GIVING them away.
Quote:Well, I'm sure Bradley will appreciate the ability of late draft picks to contribute.
As far as Jimmy Johnson, he was willing to trade up on occasion. He traded up for Emmitt Smith in 1990 and Russell Maryland in 1991, but he believed in trading down to get more bites out of the apple.
He and Bill Walsh were two masters of the draft.
True about Johnson...I agreed with his usual methods of trading down. His trading up for Maryland never proved worth it, but for Emmitt, it did. Russell Maryland never became the kind of player you'd expect from the selection he was drafted in.
Quote:True about Johnson...I agreed with his usual methods of trading down. His trading up for Maryland never proved worth it, but for Emmitt, it did. Russell Maryland never became the kind of player you'd expect from the selection he was drafted in.
That 1991 draft was really weird.
Rocket Ismail was a potential top pick, but IIRC, he signed with Canada.
The top of that draft was not very solid at all.
Arguably the best prospect at the time was DT Eric Swann, who didn't play college football and played semi pro.
Maryland was a popular Johnson pick because of his intangibles more than anything. Johnson knew what he was getting with Russell Maryland. However, despite the lack of value at the top of that draft, Johnson wound up getting five starters/major contributors out of it: Maryland, Alvin Harper, Dixon Edwards, Erik Williams, and Leon Lett.
We can only hope Caldwell and Bradley can produce a draft as good, if not better, than that one.
If the draft falls right, I think they can pull it off.
Quote:This I agree completely with.
You stockpile draft picks for three reasons:
1) You think a draft is particularly deep;
2) You have lots of holes on your roster; or
3) You want the ammunition needed to trade up, if desired.
I think the mindset behind why the Jags are stockpiling draft picks is #2 at this point.
However, I don't think Caldwell would shy away from bundling picks to move up if there's really a guy there they've coveted and don't want to lose. Caldwell clearly values his draft picks, and it seems he sees the possibility of having more picks as a better option than fewer.
In my opinion, these extra draft picks are currency. Used wisely, they can reap some pretty significant benefit to the team. We'll see the approach Caldwell takes this year with those picks.
Quote:I think the mindset behind why the Jags are stockpiling draft picks is #2 at this point.
However, I don't think Caldwell would shy away from bundling picks to move up if there's really a guy there they've coveted and don't want to lose. Caldwell clearly values his draft picks, and it seems he sees the possibility of having more picks as a better option than fewer.
In my opinion, these extra draft picks are currency. Used wisely, they can reap some pretty significant benefit to the team. We'll see the approach Caldwell takes this year with those picks.
This is where the wisdom of drafting Joeckel last year becomes more evident.
The drafting of Joeckel made Monroe expendable. Trading him gave the Jaguars some of these extra picks with which to maneuver.
Had we not traded Monroe, we'd have a lot less flexibility now than we would otherwise have.
Quote:You may be right about no "special" QBs.
But it may be a matter of getting a competent QB.
Either way, we may need to be prepared to deal up.
I wouldn't trade up to land a competent QB. There will be at least one available to us in the 2nd round if we've determined that's the best we can hope for in this draft.
Trading up into the first, losing pics that could net starting offensive lineman on this team... To take a qb that clearly is not considered elite or worthy of a top 10 selection in an era where the qb is overdrafted anyways... doesnt sound smart to me.
If theres a guy we "covet" he will be taken 3rd overall.
Either they think hes a franchise qb or a developmental qb. the franchise guy will be taken in the top 10 by us, whether at 3 or a trade down.
The guy that falls to the 20s will be a developmental guy. i see us drafting Mettenberger or Garappolo or McCarron.. Someone like that and still keep all our picks.
Quote:
Maryland was a popular Johnson pick because of his intangibles more than anything. Johnson knew what he was getting with Russell Maryland. However, despite the lack of value at the top of that draft, Johnson wound up getting five starters/major contributors out of it: Maryland, Alvin Harper, Dixon Edwards, Erik Williams, and Leon Lett.
This paragraph got me thinking...
Does anyone know what might be considered
the best draft of any team, ever? I know some of them Buddy Ryan drafts were really good, getting guys like Seth Joyner and Clyde Simmonds in rounds like 8 & 9....but I think some of those Noll Pittsburgh teams had some really good drafts as well.
Quote:This is where the wisdom of drafting Joeckel last year becomes more evident.
The drafting of Joeckel made Monroe expendable. Trading him gave the Jaguars some of these extra picks with which to maneuver.
Had we not traded Monroe, we'd have a lot less flexibility now than we would otherwise have.
But, some here disagree saying we got fleeced in the deal with Monroe. They'd prefer we held out for a 2nd round pick, but we didn't shop him around sufficiently to satisfy their requirements as message board GMs.
Trading Monroe when we did, regardless of what happened with Joeckel in the aftermath, was a smart move by this front office to give us chips in the 2014 draft if we opt to use them to move around.
If you look at teams like New England who regularly stockpile picks and move around in the draft as they see fit, there's an effective approach to leveraging those extra picks to go after the players you really want.