04-08-2014, 06:17 AM
Every offseason, football fans on message boards everywhere advocate trading down as a strategy for improving their teams of choice. It is a particularly popular option this year, given how deep this draft class is reported to be.
But how viable an option is it? Under what circumstances would a trade down be likely, and how far would the team deal down?
What follows is an examination of the teams in the draft order from 4-10, their needs, the minimum they would have to expend to get to #3, their draft pick allotment, who they might want, and the odds of such a trade developing.
4. Cleveland
Picks per round:
1st: 4, 26
2nd:35
3rd: 71, 83
4th:106, 127
5th: 145
6th: 180
7th: 218
Points to get to pick 3: 400
Needs: QB, RB, CB
Analysis: With TEN (10) picks in this draft, including 3 in the top 35, Cleveland certainly has the ammunition to move up to 3, but do they really have the need? I think not. To me, there is somehow only two scenarios they'd want to go to three. First, they'd have to think the Jaguars were willing to trade down to a team targeting their desired QB. Secondly, somehow they'd want Clowney and he's still on the board. More likely, if they traded up, it would be in the top 2. However, at the end of the day, I think they stay put.
Oakland
Picks per round:
1st: 5
2nd: 36
3rd: 67
4th: 107
5th: N/A
6th: N/A
7th: 219, 235
Points to get to 3: 500
Needs: QB, OL, DE, CB
Analysis: Oakland rivals Cleveland as perhaps the NFL's most dysfunctional front office. They have added some free agents-very old free agents. They may get an immediate short term bump from guys like Justin Tuck and MJD, but ultimately they will need a huge infusion of talent in the draft to being in the dregs two years from now. If they were to deal up, it would likely be for Clowney, if there, or to jump above Cleveland to get a QB. However, they simply have too many holes and don't have enough picks to afford to move up to three.
Atlanta
Picks per round:
1st: 6
2nd: 37
3rd: 68
4th: 103, 139 (compensatory)
5th: 147
6th: 182
7th: 220, 253
Points to get to 3: 600
Needs: T, DE, S
Analysis: I remember seeing Dimitroff indicating he isn't inclined to deal up any higher than three, but if a certain player is there at three, then he might be interested in dealing up. I think without question, that player would be Clowney. Despite their fall last year, like Houston, Atlanta may be in position for a short rebound, and Clowney could be that catalyst. But I could also envision a scenario where Clowney and Robinson could go 1-2, and Atlanta would still want to trade up to ensure Matthews is theirs before Oakland drafts him, because the Falcons desperately need to improve protection for Matt Ryan. One other consideration. Even though Gene Smith is a 4-3 guy, Atlanta signed NT Paul Soliai and DE Tyson Jackson so they can run some 3-4. If this is the case, they will need a dominant pass rushing OLB to work it properly. Given his workout, I think Clowney is also a consideration. But then Khalil Mack and Anthony Barr also become considerations. If stocking the 3-4 in Atlanta will dictate their moves, I think they will be less inclined to deal up and stand pat at 6 to get Mack or Barr. I think because Dimitroff has worked with Caldwell in Atlanta, they may have a good relationship to facilitate a trade. Right now, I have to think Atlanta represents the best chance for a trade down.
Tampa
Picks per round:
1st: 7
2nd: 38
3rd: 69
4th: N/A
5th: 143
6th: 185
7th: 221
Points to get to 3: 700
Needs: QB, OL, WR
Analysis: Usually when a new coach comes to a team, he wants his guy at QB. It's entirely possible they like Glennon enough and or are not enamored enough with the QBs at the top of this draft to not move up. But Tampa is in something of a precarious position. The top talent at each of their positions of greatest need could likely be depleted by the time they are on the board, as no fewer than 4 teams above them (Houston, Jacksonville, Cleveland and Oakland) could go QB, and no fewer than 3 teams above them (St. Louis, Oakland, Atlanta) could go Tackle, and Watkins could well be off the board too at WR. The lack of a 4th round pick hurts their ability to move up.
Minnesota
Picks per round
1st: 8
2nd: 40
3rd: 72, 96
4th: 108
5th: 148
6th: 184
7th: 223
Points to get to 3: 800
Analysis: Like the Jaguars, their attempt to address the QB position in 2011 failed, and they are back at the drawing board in an effort to obtain a signal caller. Although they re-signed DE Everson Griffen, they have lost a major contributor in Jared Allen, so DE is a need. Clowney would be an enticement to move up, and having that extra 3rd round pick helps. But assuming Clowney is off the board, there is still the gaping hole at QB. Like Tampa, they have a new defensive coach and are in a precarious position. I think they would be more inclined to stand pat.
Buffalo
Picks per round:
1st: 9
2nd: 41
3rd: 73
4th: 109
5th: 149
6th: N/A
7th: 224
Points to get to 3: 850
Needs: OL, LB
Analysis: The reports of Buffalo trying to trade up to Houston's spot a week or so ago were curious. They just spent a first round pick last year on E.J. Manuel, who showed some promise before getting injured, and even if they were inclined to take a QB in the first round in back to back years and trade up to do it, there doesn't appear to be an Andrew Luck caliber prospect at the top of the draft. Arguably, they could have been trying to acquire Clowney, but it isn't as though they couldn't rush the passer last year. They had 57 sacks. Maybe the thought of adding Clowney to an already loaded defense appeals to them. Maybe going after Clowney would enable them to get from under Mario Williams' contract sometimes in the future, but Williams showed signs of dominance last year and is still in his prime. They got a free agent steal in Hughes, who registered ten sacks. To me, even though Clowney is one of the best prospects in recent memory, I don't know if he would be the trade up target. Now the Bills could use a stud LT to move Cordy Glenn to RT (where he should be a star), and that seems like 9th overall would be a good spot for Taylor Lewan. But if they want Robinson, they would have to move up. But for those reports of Buffalo offering to move up to one, I'd say a trade up for Buffalo would be unlikely. If they were determined to have Clowney and he were there at 3, what would they offer to get him?
Detroit
Picks per round:
1st: 10
2nd: 45
3rd: 76
4th: 111, 133 & 136 (last two both compensatory)
5th: N/A
6th: 189
7th: 227
Points to get to 3: 900
Needs: WR, CB, S
Analysis: Detroit is a strange team. On paper, they appear to be supremely talented, with guys like Stafford, Megatron, Suh and Fairley on the roster, yet here they sit picking in the top ten. How can a defensive line boasting Ziggy Ansah, Suh, Fairley and Young finish 29th in sacks? How could a guy like Stafford, with a decent OL in front of him and Megatron catching his passes finish his last 8 games with a 54.1% completion percentage and 13-13 TD-INT ratio? I don't see them trading up, but to me a DL of Ansah, Suh, Fairley in a contract year and Clowney would be potentially awesome. There has been a lot of chatter about pairing Calvin Johnson with Sammy Watkins, but they could stay where they are and offer a red zone nightmare by pairing Johnson with Mike Evans.
Caveat 1: I used the draftcountdown.com trade value chart seen here: http://www.draftcountdown.com/features/Value-Chart.php
Caveat 2: I understand that these trade value charts are in no way "the law" when it comes to trade compensation. At best it is a guide, and ultimately trades are determined by supply and demand.
Caveat 3: I understand that trades are much easier done on a message board than on draft day.
Finally, I understand just as there are limits as to how high a team may want to deal up, I think there are limits as to how far the Jaguars want to deal down. I don't think the Jaguars would want to trade down too far as to preclude getting a playmaker.
I welcome your thoughts.
But how viable an option is it? Under what circumstances would a trade down be likely, and how far would the team deal down?
What follows is an examination of the teams in the draft order from 4-10, their needs, the minimum they would have to expend to get to #3, their draft pick allotment, who they might want, and the odds of such a trade developing.
4. Cleveland
Picks per round:
1st: 4, 26
2nd:35
3rd: 71, 83
4th:106, 127
5th: 145
6th: 180
7th: 218
Points to get to pick 3: 400
Needs: QB, RB, CB
Analysis: With TEN (10) picks in this draft, including 3 in the top 35, Cleveland certainly has the ammunition to move up to 3, but do they really have the need? I think not. To me, there is somehow only two scenarios they'd want to go to three. First, they'd have to think the Jaguars were willing to trade down to a team targeting their desired QB. Secondly, somehow they'd want Clowney and he's still on the board. More likely, if they traded up, it would be in the top 2. However, at the end of the day, I think they stay put.
Oakland
Picks per round:
1st: 5
2nd: 36
3rd: 67
4th: 107
5th: N/A
6th: N/A
7th: 219, 235
Points to get to 3: 500
Needs: QB, OL, DE, CB
Analysis: Oakland rivals Cleveland as perhaps the NFL's most dysfunctional front office. They have added some free agents-very old free agents. They may get an immediate short term bump from guys like Justin Tuck and MJD, but ultimately they will need a huge infusion of talent in the draft to being in the dregs two years from now. If they were to deal up, it would likely be for Clowney, if there, or to jump above Cleveland to get a QB. However, they simply have too many holes and don't have enough picks to afford to move up to three.
Atlanta
Picks per round:
1st: 6
2nd: 37
3rd: 68
4th: 103, 139 (compensatory)
5th: 147
6th: 182
7th: 220, 253
Points to get to 3: 600
Needs: T, DE, S
Analysis: I remember seeing Dimitroff indicating he isn't inclined to deal up any higher than three, but if a certain player is there at three, then he might be interested in dealing up. I think without question, that player would be Clowney. Despite their fall last year, like Houston, Atlanta may be in position for a short rebound, and Clowney could be that catalyst. But I could also envision a scenario where Clowney and Robinson could go 1-2, and Atlanta would still want to trade up to ensure Matthews is theirs before Oakland drafts him, because the Falcons desperately need to improve protection for Matt Ryan. One other consideration. Even though Gene Smith is a 4-3 guy, Atlanta signed NT Paul Soliai and DE Tyson Jackson so they can run some 3-4. If this is the case, they will need a dominant pass rushing OLB to work it properly. Given his workout, I think Clowney is also a consideration. But then Khalil Mack and Anthony Barr also become considerations. If stocking the 3-4 in Atlanta will dictate their moves, I think they will be less inclined to deal up and stand pat at 6 to get Mack or Barr. I think because Dimitroff has worked with Caldwell in Atlanta, they may have a good relationship to facilitate a trade. Right now, I have to think Atlanta represents the best chance for a trade down.
Tampa
Picks per round:
1st: 7
2nd: 38
3rd: 69
4th: N/A
5th: 143
6th: 185
7th: 221
Points to get to 3: 700
Needs: QB, OL, WR
Analysis: Usually when a new coach comes to a team, he wants his guy at QB. It's entirely possible they like Glennon enough and or are not enamored enough with the QBs at the top of this draft to not move up. But Tampa is in something of a precarious position. The top talent at each of their positions of greatest need could likely be depleted by the time they are on the board, as no fewer than 4 teams above them (Houston, Jacksonville, Cleveland and Oakland) could go QB, and no fewer than 3 teams above them (St. Louis, Oakland, Atlanta) could go Tackle, and Watkins could well be off the board too at WR. The lack of a 4th round pick hurts their ability to move up.
Minnesota
Picks per round
1st: 8
2nd: 40
3rd: 72, 96
4th: 108
5th: 148
6th: 184
7th: 223
Points to get to 3: 800
Analysis: Like the Jaguars, their attempt to address the QB position in 2011 failed, and they are back at the drawing board in an effort to obtain a signal caller. Although they re-signed DE Everson Griffen, they have lost a major contributor in Jared Allen, so DE is a need. Clowney would be an enticement to move up, and having that extra 3rd round pick helps. But assuming Clowney is off the board, there is still the gaping hole at QB. Like Tampa, they have a new defensive coach and are in a precarious position. I think they would be more inclined to stand pat.
Buffalo
Picks per round:
1st: 9
2nd: 41
3rd: 73
4th: 109
5th: 149
6th: N/A
7th: 224
Points to get to 3: 850
Needs: OL, LB
Analysis: The reports of Buffalo trying to trade up to Houston's spot a week or so ago were curious. They just spent a first round pick last year on E.J. Manuel, who showed some promise before getting injured, and even if they were inclined to take a QB in the first round in back to back years and trade up to do it, there doesn't appear to be an Andrew Luck caliber prospect at the top of the draft. Arguably, they could have been trying to acquire Clowney, but it isn't as though they couldn't rush the passer last year. They had 57 sacks. Maybe the thought of adding Clowney to an already loaded defense appeals to them. Maybe going after Clowney would enable them to get from under Mario Williams' contract sometimes in the future, but Williams showed signs of dominance last year and is still in his prime. They got a free agent steal in Hughes, who registered ten sacks. To me, even though Clowney is one of the best prospects in recent memory, I don't know if he would be the trade up target. Now the Bills could use a stud LT to move Cordy Glenn to RT (where he should be a star), and that seems like 9th overall would be a good spot for Taylor Lewan. But if they want Robinson, they would have to move up. But for those reports of Buffalo offering to move up to one, I'd say a trade up for Buffalo would be unlikely. If they were determined to have Clowney and he were there at 3, what would they offer to get him?
Detroit
Picks per round:
1st: 10
2nd: 45
3rd: 76
4th: 111, 133 & 136 (last two both compensatory)
5th: N/A
6th: 189
7th: 227
Points to get to 3: 900
Needs: WR, CB, S
Analysis: Detroit is a strange team. On paper, they appear to be supremely talented, with guys like Stafford, Megatron, Suh and Fairley on the roster, yet here they sit picking in the top ten. How can a defensive line boasting Ziggy Ansah, Suh, Fairley and Young finish 29th in sacks? How could a guy like Stafford, with a decent OL in front of him and Megatron catching his passes finish his last 8 games with a 54.1% completion percentage and 13-13 TD-INT ratio? I don't see them trading up, but to me a DL of Ansah, Suh, Fairley in a contract year and Clowney would be potentially awesome. There has been a lot of chatter about pairing Calvin Johnson with Sammy Watkins, but they could stay where they are and offer a red zone nightmare by pairing Johnson with Mike Evans.
Caveat 1: I used the draftcountdown.com trade value chart seen here: http://www.draftcountdown.com/features/Value-Chart.php
Caveat 2: I understand that these trade value charts are in no way "the law" when it comes to trade compensation. At best it is a guide, and ultimately trades are determined by supply and demand.
Caveat 3: I understand that trades are much easier done on a message board than on draft day.
Finally, I understand just as there are limits as to how high a team may want to deal up, I think there are limits as to how far the Jaguars want to deal down. I don't think the Jaguars would want to trade down too far as to preclude getting a playmaker.
I welcome your thoughts.