Jacksonville Jaguars Fan Forums

Quote:Vic, is that you?

Let me guess, you're a Steelers' fan?

Quote: 

So what if you have an elite offensive tackle? If the best player available is another elite offensive tackle, now you have two and the entire offensive line has become a stronger unit.

 

what if you have 2 elite tackles? draft another one high just to sit on the bench?

Quote:That is literally the exact logic Gene Smith put out there for drafting Anger.

 

If you've got a bunch of guys graded similarly and one of them would be of immediate use while others are mid-ceiling developmental types, yeah, take the guy who fills a need. If there's a guy with a high ceiling buried in there, I don't care what position the guy plays, take him.

 

Unless his career arc involves a ball hitting his foot. Then take the damn guard.

 

I think the ideal strategy for drafting is "Impact" Drafting.  What player will make the team the most better.  Just because the Guard is going to start, doesn't mean he'll have more impact than the DE who will sit.  But if that guard is going to have more of an impact -- then you take him.

 

 

Quote:The point I'm making is, who decided Anger wasn't Gene Smiths BAP?

 

Has Gene ever said he wasnt?

 

Exactly.  It's easy to say in hindsight that Gene Smith was a 'needs' drafter.  I remember many defending him as a BAP drafter back when we took Alualu.  


I think Gene Smith thought he was the smartest man in the room.  He fancied himself a Van Gogh who's methods weren't appreciated and understood for what they were.  Unfortunately, Van Gogh he was not.  

BAP makes the most sense if everyone is drafting off the same board.  Which is clearly not the case. 


Common sense coupled with good scouting is far and away the best draft strategy.

Quote:I think the ideal strategy for drafting is "Impact" Drafting. What player will make the team the most better. Just because the Guard is going to start, doesn't mean he'll have more impact than the DE who will sit. But if that guard is going to have more of an impact -- then you take him.




Exactly. It's easy to say in hindsight that Gene Smith was a 'needs' drafter. I remember many defending him as a BAP drafter back when we took Alualu.


I think Gene Smith thought he was the smartest man in the room. He fancied himself a Van Gogh who's methods weren't appreciated and understood for what they were. Unfortunately, Van Gogh he was not.

It's kind of hard to predict impact. The draft is about accumulating talent period. Free agency is when you supplement your roster. You don't fill holes in the draft because you have no clue if the guy can play or not it's all about selecting prospects.


Also the idea of drafting 3 tackles is crazy. That scenario would happen once every 50 years lol.


I think about it like this, when you were a kid and you played football in the yard you picked all the best guys you could. I didn't care if I had two guys who could throw or all short people cause I knew when we played we had the best guys on the team.


Same concept. Just get the most talent you can then go play. You'd be amazed what you could do with 5 DEs or 3 tackles. The defensive packages we could run or the power run formation would be unstoppable.

Quote:As some have said, it should be a balancing act.


I actually like the tiered approach:

Group players with similar grades into groups.

Always pick from the highest rated group that you can.

Try to target players within that group that fill a need.


If you feel a talent is clearly superior (Players ranked in different groups) pick the better player.


If there is a marginal talent gap (players within the same group) pick the player that will give you a more complete team.

This.


A mixture of both is the best way.


If you have a Guard and a CB with equal grades in the same tier but you have a bigger need for a CB you take the QB.


If you have a Guard in a tier above the CB, even though you have a need at CB you take the Guard.

Quote:This.


A mixture of both is the best way.


If you have a Guard and a CB with equal grades in the same tier but you have a bigger need for a CB you take the QB.


If you have a Guard in a tier above the CB, even though you have a need at CB you take the Guard.

 

There is no mixture. Either a guy is better than the next guy enough to actually conclude he's better or you're dealing with a bunch of guys that the GM thinks are essentially of equal ability, which is where Need SHOULD come in.

 

When the idea of position starts overriding the grades for the actual abilities of the individual players then you're headed for trouble.

Quote:There is no mixture. Either a guy is better than the next guy enough to actually conclude he's better or you're dealing with a bunch of guys that the GM thinks are essentially of equal ability, which is where Need SHOULD come in.


When the idea of position starts overriding the grades for the actual abilities of the individual players then you're headed for trouble.

Typically though, when you get to 2nd, 3rd round on, there normally will be a couple of a players very closely graded. 1st round is a different animal. This is why the debate of BAP or needs is stupid. It is always both because often times you have a few players graded the same or pretty much the same.

Quote:It's kind of hard to predict impact. The draft is about accumulating talent period. Free agency is when you supplement your roster. You don't fill holes in the draft because you have no clue if the guy can play or not it's all about selecting prospects.


Also the idea of drafting 3 tackles is crazy. That scenario would happen once every 50 years lol.


I think about it like this, when you were a kid and you played football in the yard you picked all the best guys you could. I didn't care if I had two guys who could throw or all short people cause I knew when we played we had the best guys on the team.


Same concept. Just get the most talent you can then go play. You'd be amazed what you could do with 5 DEs or 3 tackles. The defensive packages we could run or the power run formation would be unstoppable.

When I was a kid, we didn't have enough people for 11 vs 11 football.  It was closer to 5 vs 5.  Each person had to play Offense and Defense.  We also had girls that played.  

 

It's not easy to predict impact.  But that's the job of the General Manager. Having the best guys on your team works in a small setting with two teams.  Not so much in a setting like the NFL with 32 Full teams with players for each individual position.

Quote:There is no mixture. Either a guy is better than the next guy enough to actually conclude he's better or you're dealing with a bunch of guys that the GM thinks are essentially of equal ability, which is where Need SHOULD come in.

 

When the idea of position starts overriding the grades for the actual abilities of the individual players then you're headed for trouble.

 

Agree.  If you want someone less than BAP because of need, you trade down to where you can safely draft him.

 

Otherwise, that's what makes a reach, a reach (and puts GMs jobs on the line.)

 

I simply doesn't make any sense to take a lesser talent than BAP.  if you don't need him, find someone else who does and trade.  Or, prepare to upgrade your position and send someone packing.  Someone certainly can use the pick or player.  There's too much energy wasted talking ourselves out of what's simply common sense, if broken down to it's basic elements.  You get the highest value out of every pick that you can get.

Quote:Typically though, when you get to 2nd, 3rd round on, there normally will be a couple of a players very closely graded. 1st round is a different animal. This is why the debate of BAP or needs is stupid. It is always both because often times you have a few players graded the same or pretty much the same.

 

If they're graded similarly, then they're both BAP no matter which you choose.

Quote:  You get the highest value out of every pick that you can get.

 

Drafting BAP doesnt accomplish this.... if you want to get picky.

Quote:what if you have 2 elite tackles? draft another one high just to sit on the bench?

Yes. That'll show those other GMs you mean business, you know!

Quote:Yes. That'll show those other GMs you mean business, you know!

 

Back in 2004 the other GMs knew shack and gene did not mean business, which they didn't, and they let a future hall of fame QB slide to the steelers instead of proving that they were serious hardball negotiators.

Quote:Agree.  If you want someone less than BAP because of need, you trade down to where you can safely draft him.

 

Otherwise, that's what makes a reach, a reach (and puts GMs jobs on the line.)

 

I simply doesn't make any sense to take a lesser talent than BAP.  if you don't need him, find someone else who does and trade.  Or, prepare to upgrade your position and send someone packing.  Someone certainly can use the pick or player.  There's too much energy wasted talking ourselves out of what's simply common sense, if broken down to it's basic elements.  You get the highest value out of every pick that you can get.

 

This isnt madden. Players don't come with neatly packaged rankings and even if they did, is the 82 overall DT you don't need more valuable to you than the 79 overall CB that you do need?

 

Obviously you trust your rankings, you don't force things that aren't there and you dont look gift horses in the mouth, but to just rank'em and then pick'em regardless is foolish.

Quote:If they're graded similarly, then they're both BAP no matter which you choose.

And you will use need most likely to finalize your decision. Again round 2 and on there are probably a few players for every tram that are similar grades. It isn't back and white and this is why the debate is silly.

Quote:Agree.  If you want someone less than BAP because of need, you trade down to where you can safely draft him.

 

Otherwise, that's what makes a reach, a reach (and puts GMs jobs on the line.)

 

I simply doesn't make any sense to take a lesser talent than BAP.  if you don't need him, find someone else who does and trade.  Or, prepare to upgrade your position and send someone packing.  Someone certainly can use the pick or player.  There's too much energy wasted talking ourselves out of what's simply common sense, if broken down to it's basic elements.  You get the highest value out of every pick that you can get.

I mean, just trade people. What don't you understand? It is just that easy.



I would loooooovvvveee to be sitting next to some of these supposed BAP people as the guy you had ranked a smidge below the guy you drafted is making plays while your guy languishes on the bench because he can't hit the field.


The goal is not to acquire the highest "VALUE" of a pick, it IS to get the highest UTILITY. Value on the bench is mostly useless.

No one in the league has used this common-sense defying theory in decades anyway.

Quote:When I was a kid, we didn't have enough people for 11 vs 11 football. It was closer to 5 vs 5. Each person had to play Offense and Defense. We also had girls that played.


It's not easy to predict impact. But that's the job of the General Manager. Having the best guys on your team works in a small setting with two teams. Not so much in a setting like the NFL with 32 Full teams with players for each individual position.

5 on 5 is more reasonable but why wouldn't you get the best player period? Who can't be upgraded? Who is that good? If you don't have a HOF at the spot the BAP is how to go.

Quote:Drafting BAP doesnt accomplish this.... if you want to get picky.

 

I'm not following.  That's the very definition of BAP.

Quote:I mean, just trade people. What don't you understand? It is just that easy.



I would loooooovvvveee to be sitting next to some of these supposed BAP people as the guy you had ranked a smidge below the guy you drafted is making plays while your guy languishes on the bench because he can't hit the field.


The goal is not to acquire the highest "VALUE" of a pick, it IS to get the highest UTILITY. Value on the bench is mostly useless.

No one in the league has used this common-sense defying theory in decades anyway.

 

 I'm not sure you understand what "value" means.  In this case, it's not "value" as in "value menu" (cheap.)  It's getting the most (best player available) out of your pick.  BAP gets you best bang for the buck, especially at the highest picks.  If you can't move your pick to match the pricetag, you're paying more for less even if the player's a hit.  You're right, it isn't always possible... but that's the exception, not the rule.  You still do everything you can to make it possible.  Otherwise, you're Gene Smith picking Alualu... passing on BAP just because you thought you needed the other guy.