Quote:If the Jaguars had drafted Ogden they may have been able to win the Superbowl in 1999. Not having Boselli against the titans was a big problem. Ogden could have filled in for him and when Boselli got injured we'd still have a pro bowl left tackle to take over for him.
Hardy was another guy that didn't have any impact. Taking role players over play makers is how the Jaguars got to be so bad.
Actually, Boselli's absence in that game was a non factor. Ben Coleman played very well in Boselli's absence. The guards were exploited in that game offensively.
Hardy's impact was mitigated by Dick Jauron. When he was placed in a scheme that enabled him to maximize his impact, he produced.
Again, Ben Coleman performed well for Boselli.
Who would have replaced Hardy's 10 sacks in 1999?
Quote:"I wanted to get a starter"
Gene Smith on Bryan Anger
Other teams over the last decade have loved seeing the Jaguars drafting ahead of them. It meant some good players were getting pushed down the draft order.
Prove to me that Bryan Anger wasn't the top player on Gene's board.
People love bringing up Gene Smith as a "Needs" drafter. He was never considered one back when he was still with the team.
"Although we'll have to wait another year or two to be determined the success of his two drafts, Smith selects the true best available players (BAP), no matter when he finds them."
We heard time and time again how he was a BAP drafter. Here's an article on "Gene Smith drafts for One need: Talent."
http://www.jaguarsgab.com/2011/03/15/gen...ed-talent/
How easy it is now for people to say that he's a 'Needs' drafter now that we've seen the results of his draft. Similar to how some are saying Caldwell is a BAP picker now, despite him saying that he's a needs-based drafter.
Gene Smith was a terrible evaluator, who thought he was the smartest guy in the room. Unfortunately that was only true when the other 31 GM's in the league left the room, and he was the last guy to leave. (Gene loved those kind of guys, so I'm guessing he was one too).
The idea of the draft should be -- how do I make my team improve the most?
For that you have to consider what's available to you beyond the present, as well as what you already have.
I always did find it funny how every missed pick all of a sudden becomes a reach for need.
Quote:Actually, Boselli's absence in that game was a non factor. Ben Coleman played very well in Boselli's absence. The guards were exploited in that game offensively.
Hardy's impact was mitigated by Dick Jauron. When he was placed in a scheme that enabled him to maximize his impact, he produced.
Again, Ben Coleman performed well for Boselli.
Who would have replaced Hardy's 10 sacks in 1999?
Just about anyone would have replaced those 10 sacks. He wasn't a great pass rusher. He had some productive seasons, but he wasn't the guy making the production, he was just a guy benefiting from it.
As for the titans game I recall the titans being all over Brunell in that second half. Maybe having Ogden doesn't make a difference, but he sure would have been nice to have for most of another decade after Boselli was already finished.
Quote:What you're saying is it's fine to draft Reggie Williams and pass on Ben Roethlisberger because Leftwich is the future and he needs awesome WRs so that everyone can know that.
That has nothing to do with needs based drafting. That has everything to do with bad scouting. If the organization knew what Leftwich, Reggie, and Roethlisberger would become, they wouldnt have made the choices that they did. The biggest problem with BAP is that its proponents blame bad scouting on reaching for need.
The hallmark of BAP is maximizing value. But I proved earlier that BAP doesnt do that. So its clearly by no mean the best strategy. And even if it did maximize value, you can get into the debate about how much value a player has if he doesnt play. And what the expected return on value of a guy sitting on the bench waiting for an injury.
Quote:If the Jaguars had drafted Ogden they may have been able to win the Superbowl in 1999. Not having Boselli against the titans was a big problem. Ogden could have filled in for him and when Boselli got injured we'd still have a pro bowl left tackle to take over for him.
Hardy was another guy that didn't have any impact. Taking role players over play makers is how the Jaguars got to be so bad.
Just shut up. Hardy was a pro bowl LB that year and was huge part of our success.
Quote:That's not BAP. That's reaching, it's something Gene Smith did a lot of.
No, it's really not. I'd be willing to wager that no team in the NFL looks at its big board and drafts solely based on that. That would be 100% pure BAP, and it doesn't happen anymore. While the big board certainly exists, I'd bet that it's more groups of players than individual rankings that are looked at. Say, for example, C.J. Mosley is your top-graded MLB, and he's your 22nd-best prospect. Let's also assume that Dakota Dozier is on the board. He's your third-best guard, and 75th-best prospect on your board. There's almost certainly a very large gap there in perceived talent and career arc. Do you pass on Mosley for Dozier? God, I hope not.
Now let's say that David Yankey is your 26th-best prospect and your top-ranked guard, and he's on the board with Mosley instead of Dozier. The perceived difference in talent and career arc is probably a lot less, and the question then would be more difficult. Do you take a linebacker who might sit behind Poz for two years before sniffing the field, but could ultimately be great for a few years once he's there? Or do you take a guard who fills and immediate need and projects as a starter right away, even though his perceived ceiling may be more of a very good player for a very long time instead of a repeat Pro Bowler?
My view on BAP is that drafting Yankey over Mosley would make sense, because Yankey makes up for any talent gap with his ability to win a starting job on day one. Dozier over Mosley would be a huge reach based on feeling like they had to add a body, and they had to add it there now. I hope, for Gene's sake, that he was not a BAP drafter. That said, a draft board which featured Tyson Alualu, Chris Prosinski, Derek Cox, Pot Roast and a freaking punter at the top where he took them would explain why he hasn't landed anywhere.
Quote:I always did find it funny how every missed pick all of a sudden becomes a reach for need.
I'd bring R. Jay Soward up, but I guess he was more of a reach for need than a luxury pick, looking back.
Quote:Just shut up. Hardy was a pro bowl LB that year and was huge part of our success.
In 8 years in the league he had 36 sacks and 5 INTs. Not the worst numbers, but hardly meriting of a #2 overall selection.
Quote:Just about anyone would have replaced those 10 sacks. He wasn't a great pass rusher. He had some productive seasons, but he wasn't the guy making the production, he was just a guy benefiting from it.
As for the titans game I recall the titans being all over Brunell in that second half. Maybe having Ogden doesn't make a difference, but he sure would have been nice to have for most of another decade after Boselli was already finished.
Oh really?
Do you know how many players in team history has had 10 sacks in a season with us?
Hardy is one of four, along with Walker, Brackens, and Bobby McCray.
Not just anyone would have done that.
Besides, how often did Dick Jauron have a top ranked or dominant defense in his entire coaching history? I can think of one year-2001 with Chicago.
Quote:In 8 years in the league he had 36 sacks and 5 INTs. Not the worst numbers, but hardly meriting of a #2 overall selection.
Again, scheme made all of the difference.
Jauron was the same guy that had Bryce Paup dropping into coverage.
Quote:Oh really?
Do you know how many players in team history has had 10 sacks in a season with us?
Hardy is one of four, along with Walker, Brackens, and Bobby McCray.
Not just anyone would have done that.
Besides, how often did Dick Jauron have a top ranked or dominant defense in his entire coaching history? I can think of one year-2001 with Chicago.
So the first three seasons he played he just hadn't found his pass rushing ability yet then suddenly lost it after the 99 season?
No, he was just a guy that got 10 sacks the way Reggie Williams once scored 10 TDs in a season for us. You're measuring him by the statistical outlier, which isn't the way it's done.
Can I just say that, if given the choice, I'd have taken Simeon Rice in 1996 over either of those two? Yes, that's still with Brackens in two.
Quote:No, it's really not. I'd be willing to wager that no team in the NFL looks at its big board and drafts solely based on that. That would be 100% pure BAP, and it doesn't happen anymore. While the big board certainly exists, I'd bet that it's more groups of players than individual rankings that are looked at. Say, for example, C.J. Mosley is your top-graded MLB, and he's your 22nd-best prospect. Let's also assume that Dakota Dozier is on the board. He's your third-best guard, and 75th-best prospect on your board. There's almost certainly a very large gap there in perceived talent and career arc. Do you pass on Mosley for Dozier? God, I hope not.
Now let's say that David Yankey is your 26th-best prospect and your top-ranked guard, and he's on the board with Mosley instead of Dozier. The perceived difference in talent and career arc is probably a lot less, and the question then would be more difficult. Do you take a linebacker who might sit behind Poz for two years before sniffing the field, but could ultimately be great for a few years once he's there? Or do you take a guard who fills and immediate need and projects as a starter right away, even though his perceived ceiling may be more of a very good player for a very long time instead of a repeat Pro Bowler?
My view on BAP is that drafting Yankey over Mosley would make sense, because Yankey makes up for any talent gap with his ability to win a starting job on day one. Dozier over Mosley would be a huge reach based on feeling like they had to add a body, and they had to add it there now. I hope, for Gene's sake, that he was not a BAP drafter. That said, a draft board which featured Tyson Alualu, Chris Prosinski, Derek Cox, Pot Roast and a freaking punter at the top where he took them would explain why he hasn't landed anywhere.
I'd bring R. Jay Soward up, but I guess he was more of a reach for need than a luxury pick, looking back.
This ^ is how it works in every war room in the NFL.
Quote:Can I just say that, if given the choice, I'd have taken Simeon Rice in 1996 over either of those two? Yes, that's still with Brackens in two.
Yes, and that would have made sense at the time.
Ray Lewis in 1996, thank you very much.
Can you just imagine that?
Quote:So the first three seasons he played he just hadn't found his pass rushing ability yet then suddenly lost it after the 99 season?
No, he was just a guy that got 10 sacks the way Reggie Williams once scored 10 TDs in a season for us. You're measuring him by the statistical outlier, which isn't the way it's done.
I'm measuring him not just by his best statistical season, but by Jauron.
The differences between Jauron's schemes and Capers' were numerous.
If you get the chance, go back and watch games from the 1996-1998 seasons under Jauron and then go back and watch 1999 under Capers.
Just looking at how the blitzes were timed, you could tell Jauron wasn't in Capers' class as a defensive coordinator. Nowhere close.
Of the four guys I mentioned with 10+sacks in a season, three of them exceeded the ten sack mark under Capers. Brackens did it twice in his career.
Reggie Williams-even with his ten TDs-was still an average at best guy. His 10 TD season was nowhere close to Hardy's 1999 season, when he made 1st team all Pro and the Pro Bowl.
Quote:I'm measuring him not just by his best statistical season, but by Jauron.
The differences between Jauron's schemes and Capers' were numerous.
If you get the chance, go back and watch games from the 1996-1998 seasons under Jauron and then go back and watch 1999 under Capers.
Just looking at how the blitzes were timed, you could tell Jauron wasn't in Capers' class as a defensive coordinator. Nowhere close.
Of the four guys I mentioned with 10+sacks in a season, three of them exceeded the ten sack mark under Capers. Brackens did it twice in his career.
Reggie Williams-even with his ten TDs-was still an average at best guy. His 10 TD season was nowhere close to Hardy's 1999 season, when he made 1st team all Pro and the Pro Bowl.
It's funny, I keep saying that Hardy wasn't special and he was just the beneficiary of what was around him in 99 and you keep arguing that I'm right while insisting you're arguing that I'm wrong.
A lot of guys could have gotten a lot of sacks in that specific season and situation.
Quote:It's funny, I keep saying that Hardy wasn't special and he was just the beneficiary of what was around him in 99 and you keep arguing that I'm right while insisting you're arguing that I'm wrong.
A lot of guys could have gotten a lot of sacks in that specific season and situation.
But only two others did-and they are considered studs. Oddly, neither Brackens nor Walker had ten sacks in a season prior to Capers' arrival.
Paup didn't put up those numbers in that scheme, and if you think about it that scheme could have been tailor made for him. Lonnie marts didn't put up those numbers in that defense.
The fact is, under a conservative 4-3 defense like Jauron's, an OLB isn't going to put up big sack numbers. Why penalize Hardy in the analysis because of it?
Go back to my reply to Pirkster regarding why players succeed or fail.
My reply to him is consistent with my stance here. Talented players have to be put in a position to let their talent shine.
Quote:It's funny, I keep saying that Hardy wasn't special and he was just the beneficiary of what was around him in 99 and you keep arguing that I'm right while insisting you're arguing that I'm wrong.
A lot of guys could have gotten a lot of sacks in that specific season and situation.
Would you draft Matthews with the #3 pick overall?