I think it was Mike Holmgren who once said that you don't draft a QB unless you think he has the talent to be a starter sometime down the road. The logic was that there are always decent, low-cost veterans available, so the odds of recouping the value of the pick, either in the form of playing time or a future draft selection, are much lower for a career backup-level player than they are for a guy who has some intriguing starter qualities.
Quote:You draft to maximize value. If you can get your player in the 3rd why would you use a first?
Sure the Seahawks could have drafted Wilson in the first but by doing so you lose value and you also miss out on other players. In this scenario the Hawks would get their franchise QB but would miss out on another impact player, Bruce Irvin.
And none of us applaud them if they missed out on Wilson. It is a very risky move that paid off for them. But how many times do teams wait for one player and end up missing out on a difference maker?
Quote:You don't fall in love with players. Thats how it works. GM's should have a general idea of a players perceived draft grade and the good GM's if they like a player will try to get him at as close to that value as they can without overpaying. GM's that don't fall in love with players have solid contingency plans, and usually get good players anyway. In 1984, The Eagles wanted WR Perry Tuttle, he was snatched up right before their pick. So they instead took WR Mike QUick with the very next pick (who they also scouted heavily and liked) . How'd that work out for them?
The Gene Smith way of drafting was stupid and did not maximize value. You are going to miss on draft picks regardless....but when you miss AND reach, its compounding the problem.
BTW, Gene definitely did reach on several picks, Alualu especially.
So you saw Genes board?
Quote:The thing is that no one, not even the staff who drafted Wilson, could have predicted that Wilson is going to be a franchise QB this early in his career. He was drafted in the third round, at minimum risk to the team, to be a developmental guy behind Matt Flynn. It just so happened that Wilson turned out to be better than what they thought he could be.
If the Sawhawks could see the future on Wilson's development as a franchise QB, they might even traded up to the third overall pick to draft Wilson because they would fear that another team could potentially draft Wilson ahead of them. Of course, hindsight is 20/20.
ive been making this point forever, just like how if the patriots knew what TB12 would be they would have had taken him in the first, teams get lucky sometimes.
Why are we even discussing Wilson at all? How many 3rd rounders are starting QBs in the league? My thoughts are if they aren't drafted by at least the top of the 2nd then they aren't a franchise QB. Of course there are extremely rare exceptions.
Quote:Why are we even discussing Wilson at all? How many 3rd rounders are starting QBs in the league? My thoughts are if they aren't drafted by at least the top of the 2nd then they aren't a franchise QB. Of course there are extremely rare exceptions.
That's what I'm getting at.
Why wait?
We're talking about QBs here.
Not WRs.
Not DBs.
There should be no such thing as over drafting a QB.
If he's worth passing over, then he's not worth picking at all.
Quote:Why are we even discussing Wilson at all? How many 3rd rounders are starting QBs in the league? My thoughts are if they aren't drafted by at least the top of the 2nd then they aren't a franchise QB. Of course there are extremely rare exceptions.
And if youre playing the percentages I wouldnt draft one at the top of the 2nd even. Those picks historically have under a 20% chance of working out, Id rather pick a different player and draft a QB in the first next year.
Quote:That's what I'm getting at.
Why wait?
We're talking about QBs here.
Not WRs.
Not DBs.
There should be no such thing as over drafting a QB.
If he's worth passing over, then he's not worth picking at all.
I think most here think you can get a QB on the cheap. They think you can take a guy in the 3rd or 4th round and develop them unto a top 15 NFL QB. The odds are just not in your favor. There is a reason why 32 teams passed a guy multiple rounds. Guys like Pat Devlin, Dan Lefevour, Ricki Stanzi, Matt Barkley, Tyler Wilson etc etc...there is a reason why they were selected where they were and why their odds at ever being more than clipboard holders is far greater than ever being a starter. QB isn't like other positions like RB and WR. There are literally dozens of those guys littered in the draft.
Quote:I think it was Mike Holmgren who once said that you don't draft a QB unless you think he has the talent to be a starter sometime down the road. The logic was that there are always decent, low-cost veterans available, so the odds of recouping the value of the pick, either in the form of playing time or a future draft selection, are much lower for a career backup-level player than they are for a guy who has some intriguing starter qualities.
And Mike Holmgren was right.
Why reach on a QB when you dont have to? Especially when elite talent exists.
You cant know for sure if a guy like Manxiel will translate to the nfl. You have to guage his stock and draft accordingly. If you miss out, oh well. There are other players available.
Quote:And Mike Holmgren was right.
Where are the decent low cost veteran QBs that have the potential to legitimately aid in a SB run nowadays? Holmgren also had Favre and Hasselbeck, how often was he desperate for a QB?
Quote:Why reach on a QB when you dont have to? Especially when elite talent exists.
You cant know for sure if a guy like Manxiel will translate to the nfl. You have to guage his stock and draft accordingly. If you miss out, oh well. There are other players available.
You reach cause you don't have one. Let me ask you this. When you go somewhere, say a theme park, and you desperately need and want a bottle of water, do you say oh hell naw I'm not buying this $3 water I'll wait another 5 hours and drink from that nasty fountain at the other end of the place or do you suck it up and drink your cold rejuvenating water. You either pay more upfront with the odds being better it will actually be good water, or do you allow yourself to be thirsty as hell, and get the sucky water? Probably bad analogy but whatever.
Quote:You don't fall in love with players. Thats how it works.
<blockquote class="ipsBlockquote" data-author="The Mad Dog" data-cid="105066" data-time="1389129988">
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Late season wins like this when the team is already in the midst of a terrible season, accomplish little other than helping ensure that we'll be in this similar situation again next season.
The only way to get out of this is by getting the stud QB.
The Colts bottomed out and got Luck.
The Texans appear smart enough to just bottom out this season and get Bridgewater.
Yet, you people sit here and champion an unimpressive 13-6 win against a 2-8 team and act like its the best thing since slice bread.
You are some of the most short sighted fans I have ever seen, not understanding the fallout of winning these late season nothing games as it pertains to the future. These wins aren't benefiting this team any. But you can't see that.
http://jungle.jaguars.com/index.php?/top...entry62383
Quote:What was so impressive about the 2 Jags wins this season? In both cases, it wasn't the Jaguars showing some kind of impressive dominating performance; making big plays all over. It was more about the other team being so bad.
The wins did nothing to help our chances of finally getting out of being in this position again next season.,,,,and we just might have helped another division rival get the stud QB that we need.
Thats just great. Go team.
http://jungle.jaguars.com/index.php?/top...entry62431
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Were you lying then, or are you lying now?
Quote:Were you lying then, or are you lying now?
Saying you need the QB isn't lying.
We do. Any team that hopes to have a SB does.
But Falling in love with a player refers to overdrafting them and/ or passing up opportunities such as lucrative trade downs just because they are hell bent on a single prospect, such as Gene with Alualu. Not having contingency plans for missing out on favored targets in the 2nd or 3rd rounds, leading again, to reaches.
As much as I am for Bridgewater, I am not so tunnel visioned that I wouldn't accept a trade down if the return was great enough.
Quote:So what I understand is if the Seahawks selected Russell in the 1st, that would have been failure by their front office?
Not a failure by any stretch - but they look pretty darn smart being able to take a valuable player or two ahead of him and still land a franchise QB.
Quote:You reach cause you don't have one. Let me ask you this. When you go somewhere, say a theme park, and you desperately need and want a bottle of water, do you say oh hell naw I'm not buying this $3 water I'll wait another 5 hours and drink from that nasty fountain at the other end of the place or do you suck it up and drink your cold rejuvenating water. You either pay more upfront with the odds being better it will actually be good water, or do you allow yourself to be thirsty as hell, and get the sucky water? Probably bad analogy but whatever.
That is a recipe for years and years of busted draft picks, which we already excel at.
Quote:And none of us applaud them if they missed out on Wilson. It is a very risky move that paid off for them. But how many times do teams wait for one player and end up missing out on a difference maker?
And then there are those who trade up for guys like Blaine Gabbert and Mark Sanchez.
Get the evaluation right, and get the value right. When you do that, you assign the risk appropriately.
Quote:Were you lying then, or are you lying now?
yes
Yep. I don't have to give you examples of guys who turned out good and weren't 1st round picks. I think you have to take guys who are really good at something but need work on something else and hopefully they develop.
Quote:Kaepernick at our original pick of 16 (with no trade up to 10) would have been reasonable value.
Kaepernick was viewed by most draftniks, including CBS and NFLdraftscout, as a 2nd-3rd round draft pick. He was chosen in the 2nd. If Gene would have taken him at 16, the world would have viewed it initially as a reach (not reasonable value). Hindsight is always 20/20.