Jacksonville Jaguars Fan Forums

Just an example:

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/nfl/new...arterback/

This is the reason why GM/coach should do a proper evaluation and, most importantly, follow their gut.  Al Davis really wanted kaepernick because he believed Kaep has great potential.  However, it would be "reaching" or "overdrafting" had they selected him in the first round.  They wanted to wait until the 2nd round because that's where they believed his stock value was.  Guess what happened; they missed out on him to the 49ers, and now their QB situation is just as bad as our. 

 

Yes, Gabbert was a bad pick, and so were the Locker and Ponder picks.  But you know what?  It happens.  Not every QB selected in the first round will work out.  Carolina followed their gut and "overdrafted" Newton at #1.  Now they get credit for not listening to the critics and did their proper homework on Newton.  When a team is in desperate need of a QB, then they should do a proper evaluation and take one if they believe he can really develop into a franchise QB.  There is no such thing as waiting for the right value when you consider the QB position.  You wait for him to fall to you and he might ends up on another team.  If you want to wait until the later round to find your Russell Wilson -- LOL -- then you are betting against the statistics.

 

(You what's funny?  Had Carolina won a couple more games with Jimmy Clausen, they wouldn't have land Newton, instead they'd probably select Blaine Gabbert.  This is why if your team totally sucks, then it's better to suck all the way because having first dip in the pool of talent is way better than get to select 3rd or 4th overall.  For Carolina in that 2011 draft, the difference between a Cam Newton vs a Gabbert/Ponder/Locker was their 1st overall draft order.)

Quote:Actually, give it another read.  My entire argument is that there are no re-dos.

 

We never know when a player we're waiting for in the 4th round will get grabbed in the 3rd.  There was a chance that Wilson could have gone undrafted, and I'm not interested in the revisionist historians stipulating otherwise.  I was alive and paying attention that year.  Does that mean Seattle overdrafted him?  According to many here, the answer is yes, even though history has proven otherwise.

 

Edit:  You misunderstood my term "chasing value".  What I meant is that teams will wait to draft a guy because they think he will be available later, and instead choose players with "higher value"- the players that are "supposed" to go higher due to the Kiper and McShay grades.

 

The one issue I have with your approach is that the draft isn't done with the teams having blinders on and no clue what each other are doing. Granted, it is imperfect and I'm certain that there is a fair amount of misinformation being passed around, but you will have some clue as to what the other teams are doing. If you simply pick the players that you think will be good without at least acknowledging what the other clubs are doing, you may be missing out on value.

 

To me, that uncertainty -- "can I get that guy in the Third, or should I trade back into the Second?" -- is part of what makes the draft so intriguing.

Quote:Again, if you believe strongly in a guy you dont risk someone else taking him before you pick again. That is just stupid logic. If he is the top player on your board you pick him. The key obviously is getting the evaluation right. Of course if you get it wrong people will say you "overdrafted" because they are using hindsight.

The bold part is exactly the logic that landed us such greats as Derek Cox, Chris Prostinkski, D'Anthony Smith and, of course, Bryan Anger. As to the second part, I hope to God that those guys weren't actually on top of Gene's draft board. If they were, it might explain why he hasn't landed a new job.

Quote:

Again, if you believe strongly in a guy you dont risk someone else taking him before you pick again. That is just stupid logic. If he is the top player on your board you pick him. The key obviously is getting the evaluation right. Of course if you get it wrong people will say you "overdrafted" because they are using hindsight.

And this is why Anger was a 3rd round pick.

Quote:And this is why Anger was a 3rd round pick.

 

You can keep telling them until you're blue in the face, but some folks simply don't and won't likely ever understand the logic behind ensuring you get the right value.

 

If you're reaching and overdrafting a position, by definition he's certainly not going to be at the top of the board.  He seems to understand that you should draft the top of your board, but just can't seem to connect those dots.

Quote:You liked Gabbert, and bashed people who identified early that Gabbert wasn't any good with the Jags. 

 

Oh...

 

http://forums.prosportsdaily.com/showthr...st18837496

 

Delicious.

to find the value of a second to third round qb, u have to look deeper than just the QB position... imo, one of the main things that kap and wilson give there team is the ability to spend at other positions rather than be confined by the big contracts that the elite QB's are getting from there team... im not implying their production doesnt matter, but because where they are drafted out of the first round, they gave their teams a two to three year window to spread the money around to other positions before they will inevitably have to fold and pay their qb's monster contracts.

Quote:Some of you have hinted at it, but haven't stated it:


The term "overdraft" exists only in the PAST tense.


There are many that thought Seattle overdrafted Wilson. I agree with TMD's assertion that Kaepernick would have been a great pick at 16, and many in Cinci wouldn't have minded if they'd picked him with their first overall pick. But both teams would have been blasted by their fans and the press for not getting "value". Seattle, by the way, were blasted for reaching throughout the 2012 NFL draft - including the Wilson pick.


Re-do the 2000 draft today, and Brady goes first overall. I'm totally against pirk's advice: You like a guy, you take him. That's what Seattle did, and that's what the Patriots did.


Don't chase "value." Get a good player.

Cosign.

Quote:Oh...

<a class="bbc_url" href='http://forums.prosportsdaily.com/showthread.php?642222-Gabbert-should-not-start-week-1&p=18837496#post18837496'>http://forums.prosportsdaily.com/showthread.php?642222-Gabbert-should-not-start-week-1&p=18837496#post18837496</a>


Delicious.

Ouch.

Quote:Actually, give it another read.  My entire argument is that there are no re-dos.

 

We never know when a player we're waiting for in the 4th round will get grabbed in the 3rd.  There was a chance that Wilson could have gone undrafted, and I'm not interested in the revisionist historians stipulating otherwise.  I was alive and paying attention that year.  Does that mean Seattle overdrafted him?  According to many here, the answer is yes, even though history has proven otherwise.

 

Edit:  You misunderstood my term "chasing value".  What I meant is that teams will wait to draft a guy because they think he will be available later, and instead choose players with "higher value"- the players that are "supposed" to go higher due to the Kiper and McShay grades.

 

Wilson was not going to go undrafted, you are revising history with that one.... Overdrafting him would be in the 1st round, which is what you suggested.

 

No, I know what you mean. Let me ask you again: With your philosophy of not chasing value, which pick do you replace for Wilson: Anger, Blackmon, or Branch?

Quote:Oh...

<a class="bbc_url" href='http://forums.prosportsdaily.com/showthread.php?642222-Gabbert-should-not-start-week-1&p=18837496#post18837496'>http://forums.prosportsdaily.com/showthread.php?642222-Gabbert-should-not-start-week-1&p=18837496#post18837496</a>


Delicious.

Quote:No, I know what you mean. Let me ask you again: With your philosophy of not chasing value, which pick do you replace for Wilson: Anger, Blackmon, or Branch?

Considering that Anger was drafted five picks before Wilson, the aptly-named punter would be the logical answer. Wilson only would have made sense in round two with a trade down.

This is one area that TMD hits the nail on the head. I haven't even read the second page yet, but I agree with everything TMD is saying. You draft guys at the right value or you trade back and accumulate picks, otherwise you are going to end up with less talent across the board.

All this euphoria about several non-elite quarterbacks is destined to meet reality.

 

We don't develop quarterbacks in Jacksonville, we kill them.

Quote:All this euphoria about several non-elite quarterbacks is destined to meet reality.


We don't develop quarterbacks in Jacksonville, we kill them.

That's the spirit!