Play# Date Opp Player Play Result Field Pts. Pts. Winner Final Score
Position Assigned Scored
1 2016-09-11 Packers Bortles Int Turnover Jags 29 3 7 Packers 27-23
2 2016-09-18 Chargers Bortles Fumble Turnover Jags 18 0 0 Chargers 38-14
3 2016-09-18 Chargers Bortles Int Turnover Jags 30 3 7 Chargers 38-14
4 2016-09-25 Ravens Bortles Int Turnover Jags 39 0 0 Ravens 19-17
5 2016-10-16 Bears Bortles Fumble Turnover Jags 28 3 3 Jaguars 17-16
6 2016-10-23 Raiders ST/Greene Muffed Punt Turnover Jags 17 3 3 Raiders 33-16
7 2016-10-27 Titans ST/Lee Muffed Punt Turnover Jags 35 3 3 Titans 36-22
8 2016-11-06 Chiefs ST/Walters Muffed Punt Turnover Jags 23 3 7 Chiefs 19-14
9 2016-11-06 Chiefs Yeldon Fumble Turnover Jags 38 3 3 Chiefs 19-14
10 2016-11-06 Chiefs Bortles Int Turnover Jags 13 3 3 Chiefs 19-14
11 2016-11-06 Chiefs Sp. Teams Punt Return Big Play Jags 30 3 3 Chiefs 19-14
12 2016-11-13 Texans Bortles Int TD Endzone 7 7 Texans 24-21
13 2016-11-13 Texans Sp. Teams Punt Return Big Play Jags 7 3 7 Texans 24-21
14 2016-11-20 Lions Bortles Int TD Endzone 7 7 Lions 26-19
15 2016-11-20 Lions Sp. Teams Punt Return TD Endzone 6 6 Lions 26-19
16 2016-11-20 Lions Bortles Int Turnover Jags 35 0 0 Lions 26-19
17 2016-11-27 Bills Sp. Teams Punt Return Big Play Jags 22 3 7 Bills 28-21
18 2016-12-04 Broncos Bortles Int TD Endzone 7 7 Broncos 20-10
19 2016-12-04 Broncos Bortles Fumble Turnover Jags 29 3 3 Broncos 20-10
20 2016-12-04 Broncos Sp. Teams Punt Return Big Play Jags 43 3 3 Broncos 20-10
66 86
Here's a spreadsheet (shows better on a computer than on a mobile device, sorry) of all plays given up on Offense and Special Teams this season so far that put the opponent inside the 40 (scoring position) or in the endzone. I made one exception for play #20 which was the punt return for the Broncos which put them on our 43 after a decent return and penalty yardage added. If we're putting them inside the 40, I'm assigning at least 3 points given up to our Offense or Special Teams as we basically just handed them field goal position. On two occasions, those plays effectively ended the game so no points were scored as the opponent just took a knee to end the game (Ravens and Lions). There was one instance where our D took the ball back on the 5 yard line from the Chargers but that still ended up being a blow out loss.
As you can see from examining the numbers above, we handed games away on a silver platter to the Broncos, Lions, Texans, Chiefs, and Packers. We should have probably won the Ravens game as well for reasons not illustrated above. And the Bills game would have likely gone to over time had we not yielded a touchdown right before the half after handing them the ball inside field goal range.
Also, you can see that most of this is on Bortles. With better care of the football, this team is winning the division with a 7-5 or 8-4 record right now and likely headed to the playoffs.
The formatting got a bit wacky on your spreadsheet there, but yes, they've given games away and would be (IMO) a six win team right now without the careless play at QB (as well as some just stupid mistakes elsewhere.)
One thing that certainly stood out as much as anything in the Jaguars-Lions game was the Jaguars Defense only gave up 12 out of 26 total points. They weren't even on the field at all for the other 14 points. Though the S'D' Marks 4th Down mistake was huge and there was a breakdown in coverage on the long pass to Eric Ebron that set up the Lions only Offense TD of the game ( Ebron TD run on Jet Sweep play ), overall I thought the Jaguars Defense played well that afternoon. Probably well enough to win most NFL games, based on typical Offense and Special Teams NFL expectations.
I mentioned all this in the 'defense is a bright spot' thread, and hoped for such #s. Thanks Meister.
The D was on the field for 13 pts vs. Detroit, 6, the punt return extra point was no good...I stated that in the bright spot thread too.
So 6 for punt return score + 7 for leBortleau int return = 13 while D was off field. A crying shame.
Quote:So 6 for punt return score + 7 for leBortleau int return = 13 while D was off field. A crying shame.
I updated it.
Drain you of your sanity
Face the thing that should not be
Quote:I mentioned all this in the 'defense is a bright spot' thread, and hoped for such #s. Thanks Meister.
The D was on the field for 13 pts vs. Detroit, 6, the punt return extra point was no good...I stated that in the bright spot thread too.
BritJag, I stand corrected regarding the extra point factor. Thanks for the information.
I can't recall who blocked the PAT for the Jaguars. To the Jaguars credit, that was the only Lions game in the last 4 that Matt Prater WASN'T the NFC Special Teams Player of the Week,
Meister, good work mate. I play with #s non stop in my new role, but the formatting is throwing me off. Can I kindly ask, how many points the Jags D has 'actually' given up now (minus the leBortleau/ST gifts), and where would that rank em on scoring D?
Terrific job, Jaguarmeister!
This is the type of thread that should be considered to be pinned for a long time on the 1st page of this section of the Forum.
Quote: BritJag, I stand corrected regarding the extra point factor. Thanks for the information.
I can't recall who blocked the PAT for the Jaguars. To the Jaguars credit, that was the only Lions game in the last 4 that Matt Prater WASN'T the NFC Special Teams Player of the Week,
It was reportedly a bad snap by your LS, Muhlbach, but Marks capitalized and was given the blocked kick credit.
Becausejagly followed by that hard count embarrassment roughly a half later...both plays occurred at the end of each half.
Quote:Meister, good work mate. I play with #s non stop in my new role, but the formatting is throwing me off. Can I kindly ask, how many points the Jags D has 'actually' given up now (minus the leBortleau/ST gifts), and where would that rank em on scoring D?
Jags D has "officially" given up 313 points. I'll be fair and knock off the three 0's from the list which would put the points I assigned to Offense and Special Teams at 58, but there was one instance where we put the Texans on our own 7 yard line. I'm not sure you can expect your defense to keep them out of the end zone in that scenario, but I'll leave that up to you guys so I'll go with 58 which would put the actual points given up by the Defense at 255. I'm not sure re-ranking them based on that is fair considering we haven't done this same exercise for each team in the league. I'm not going to do that, though. I might be open to doing it for 2 or 3 more teams when I have some time if people want to see for comparison purposes how we stack up to teams like the Patriots or whoever you want to be examined. This exercise took about 30 minutes for me to compile this info on the Jags.
Quote:Terrific job, Jaguarmeister!
This is the type of thread that should be considered to be pinned for a long time on the 1st page of this section of the Forum.
Thanks D6! Coming from you with your history of quality posts, that's high praise.
I love when I go to the nfl.com team stats page and the Jaguars are right there listed #2 in pass defense, a number that's all the more impressive given the Jaguars lack of a pass rush.
The Jaguars rank 26th in points allowed per game with 26.1 points. From the stats in the opening post, Blake has had 3 pick sixes plus there was a punt return for a score. Subtracting 28 points from their total points and then dividing the result by 12 games puts the Jaguars at 23.8 points per game. The Bucs are currently ranked 19th with 23.8 points per game allowed.
I'd be hesitant to go much further in subtracting points because it would only be fair if you did the same for all the other teams.
Quote:Jags D has "officially" given up 313 points. I'll be fair and knock off the three 0's from the list which would put the points I assigned to Offense and Special Teams at 58, but there was one instance where we put the Texans on our own 7 yard line. I'm not sure you can expect your defense to keep them out of the end zone in that scenario, but I'll leave that up to you guys so I'll go with 58 which would put the actual points given up by the Defense at 255. I'm not sure re-ranking them based on that is fair considering we haven't done this same exercise for each team in the league. I'm not going to do that, though. I might be open to doing it for 2 or 3 more teams when I have some time if people want to see for comparison purposes how we stack up to teams like the Patriots or whoever you want to be examined. This exercise took about 30 minutes for me to compile this info on the Jags.
You are kind. Cheers mate, and no no no, wouldn't want you to reconfigure the #s as such. The 255 was all I needed.
That puts them around 13th place in scoring D, ahead of Texans with 257 given up thus far, and below Arizona with 251.
But I agree, we'd have to do likewise for all teams to get a more accurate indicator. Still, 58 gifted points in 12 contests is so becausejagly.
Quote:I love when I go to the nfl.com team stats page and the Jaguars are right there listed #2 in pass defense, a number that's all the more impressive given the Jaguars lack of a pass rush.
The Jaguars rank 26th in points allowed per game with 26.1 points. From the stats in the opening post, Blake has had 3 pick sixes plus there was a punt return for a score. Subtracting 28 points from their total points and then dividing the result by 12 games puts the Jaguars at 23.8 points per game. The Bucs are currently ranked 19th with 23.8 points per game allowed.
I'd be hesitant to go much further in subtracting points because it would only be fair if you did the same for all the other teams.
When your offense or ST puts the opponent in FG range, I think it's pretty safe and easy to assign at least the 3 points to whichever side of the ball is responsible depending on the circumstances. I did not assign all 7 if a TD was given up as the Defense in most of the examples still had an opportunity to get a stop and force a FG. Also, more often than not, if you're giving the opponent the ball inside your own 40, it means you probably didn't have possession very long and your defense is having to trot back out there on short rest. It's the worst thing a team can do which negatively affects your chances of winning the game. We seem to do it way too often.
Kinda like in baseball how a relief pitcher isn't responsible for runners already on base when he enters the game. The current league wide successful FG percentage regardless of where the ball is being kicked from is 84.5%. I don't think you can put the 3 on the D in these examples.
Quote:I love when I go to the nfl.com team stats page and the Jaguars are right there listed #2 in pass defense, a number that's all the more impressive given the Jaguars lack of a pass rush.
The Jaguars rank 26th in points allowed per game with 26.1 points. From the stats in the opening post, Blake has had 3 pick sixes plus there was a punt return for a score. Subtracting 28 points from their total points and then dividing the result by 12 games puts the Jaguars at 23.8 points per game. The Bucs are currently ranked 19th with 23.8 points per game allowed.
I'd be hesitant to go much further in subtracting points because it would only be fair if you did the same for all the other teams.
Indeed mate. I like your cruder take, going only by clear pick 6s/ST score than turnovers leading to short fields etc, as that skews the data even more.
Well, it's come this, grasping for excel sheets and calculators to see what if. The Jags are a case study with boundless angles.
I'll do this for another team later today. Throw out some suggestions for which team it should be done on if you're interested.
Quote:I'll do this for another team later today. Throw out some suggestions for which team it should be done on if you're interested.
I be curious to know about another team in the division - i.e., how close might the Jaguars be to challenging in the division.