Quote:Well what's your appraisal of Manziel?
Do not want. In addition to the maturity/ mental issues.....too small, too reckless, will probably be injured early and often in the NFL if he plays a similar style to his college game in the NFL, and if you try to rein him in and force him into a more controlled system, I don't think he'll be half as effective as he was in college as he doesn't have consistent accuracy, has terrible fundamentals, .....so I see it as a double edged sword.
In other words, pass on Johnny football.
Quote:Do not want. In addition to the maturity/ mental issues.....too small, too reckless, will probably be injured early and often in the NFL if he plays a similar style to his college game in the NFL, and if you try to rein him in and force him into a more controlled system, I don't think he'll be half as effective as he was in college as he doesn't have consistent accuracy, has terrible fundamentals, .....so I see it as a double edged sword.
In other words, pass on Johnny football.
But you can't deny the potential his playmaking factor brings.
Quote:But you can't deny the potential his playmaking factor brings.
I mostly respect your evaluations thus far Kodiak, but I gotta say you seem to be letting your emotions get in the way with Manziel. I read your Manziel breakdown and to me it read like this: well this isn't so great and he doesn't do this well and he doesn't have good size and he gets extremely lucky way too often....BUT PLAYMAKING! You have even admitted that not much of what he does translates to the NFL and he will need to change his playstyle to make it work. Well we saw a preview of how that is going to go...
Please go watch the LSU and Missouri cut ups. They both made Johnny look like a JV QB, and showed that if you just play contain and force him to rely on his "NFL traits" (or lack thereof) he will come up severely lacking. I rewatched each cutup in addition to watching both live and it was extremely ugly.
Quote:But you can't deny the potential his playmaking factor brings.
You've said it yourself though. We don't know if his skill set will translate. People seem to be jumping onto the Manziel bandwagon as soon as we're out of it for Teddy and maybe even Carr.
Manziel is probably the biggest risk in the draft. If he succeeds, we'll be set for years to come. If he fails -- we'll be set back for years to come. On top of the fact that we're coming off a failed rebuild.
Quote:Could you explain the case for Ryan Mallett? Because I've seen this idea multiple times and I just don't get it.
Sure.. He sat behind Tom Brady for a long time, hopefully learning.. And he's not Gabbert or Henne... That's all I got..
Quote:I mostly respect your evaluations thus far Kodiak, but I gotta say you seem to be letting your emotions get in the way with Manziel. I read your Manziel breakdown and to me it read like this: well this isn't so great and he doesn't do this well and he doesn't have good size and he gets extremely lucky way too often....BUT PLAYMAKING! You have even admitted that not much of what he does translates to the NFL and he will need to change his playstyle to make it work. Well we saw a preview of how that is going to go...
Please go watch the LSU and Missouri cut ups. They both made Johnny look like a JV QB, and showed that if you just play contain and force him to rely on his "NFL traits" (or lack thereof) he will come up severely lacking. I rewatched each cutup in addition to watching both live and it was extremely ugly.
Thank you for posting this, jaggy, it will allow me say a few things.
First off, I put a whole lot of effort into each report that I do - probably two to three hours, all told. I watch plays, series, and sometimes whole games multiple times to ensure that my evaluations are pretty accurate. I'd like to consider myself pretty knowledgeable on the subject, at least as far as a seventeen year-old on youtube can be.
That being said. I am, first and foremost, a football fan. There are times when I allow my emotions over a particular game or player to cloud my analysis. I try to limit it as much as I can, but sometimes it happens. You've pointed out, and very accurately, that my fascination with Manziel is illogical at best and can damage the reliability of my work at worst. Very true.
I did see the LSU game, and I'm going to break it down if Manziel declares, because that was his worst game. That game, his Alabama game, and his bowl game will comprise my work on him, in an effort to see him in his best and worst lights, and in all manner of pressure situations.
Here's what it comes down to, however... His arm is upper echelon. His accuracy is good. His athleticism is stellar. As for the lucky/playmaking thing, I look at it this way: How many times does a guy have to do something that is by any definition highly improbable for him to be credited with it as a strength? He's been running around in pockets for two years now against the best competition. He has chucked it downfield with abandon time and time again. Sure, his form is horrible, and sure, sometimes he makes some (frankly disgusting) mental errors. But what he does, he does better than anyone else. At some point, it stops being luck.
What about Pat Devlin.. Cool name.. Could win a Super Bowl with a name like that...
Quote: At some point, it stops being luck.
I actually don't say any of it is luck. I try to never use that word in an evaluation. It's just part of the skill gap that can allow questionable play to succeed in college but will rarely work in the NFL. You just have to learn to isolate and evaluate aside from the results and surrounding talent/opposition talent. I'm not saying you do or don't do that already, but I know a whole lot of people do not.
http://draftbreakdown.com/video/johnny-m...bama-2013/
I hate to go back to the Bama game this year yet again, but his first two throws are just easy to find picture perfect examples of this. At :09 and :28 neither of those throws will work in the NFL. However, when you have a bad/inexperienced CB like #10 get turned around there and you are throwing to WR God Evans good things that shouldn't happen often do at the college level. In the NFL those are at best two incompletions and a punt, and maybe two interceptions. But instead it's 60 yards and a TD a play later.
Quote:But you can't deny the potential his playmaking factor brings.
what good is his playmaking ability if he is always injured? the offense would have to be tailor made for him (which can be done, not the end of the world.) would have to count on him not getting in trouble (benefit of the doubt is he doesnt make the kind of dumb mistakes blackmon has) but then you still have to worry about him taking shots and winding up injured like rg3.
way too risky for my liking. if caldwell pulls the trigger on manziel, so be it. but only if teddy is gone. TB is going to be the best qb to come out of this class by far. if manziel can get on the right track he will probably be the second best, if i had a guess the next guy would be mccarron, then murray/bortles. pure guesses on the last 2. carr will have probably flamed out and be a backup, mettenberger - career backup.
Manziel fans, how about we take Taylor Martinez? He probably won't get drafted and can do everything Manziel can.
Quote:Manziel fans, how about we take Taylor Martinez? He probably won't get drafted and can do everything Manziel can.
Or if we reeeeeally want Manziel just take his clone Brett Smith who will be available on day 3 where his talents really fit.
Quote:What if, like last year, there isn't one?
-Caldwell may not believe Bridgewater is a franchise guy
--Even if he does, he might not be available to us
-Caldwell may not believe Carr is a franchise guy
--Even if he does, he might not be available to us
-Caldwell may not believe any of the others are franchise guys eitther
Caldwell can trade up in the first to leapfrog the Vikings if he likes somebody the Texans did not pick. Currently we have 10 picks, not counting any CPs we might get.
He can also sign a cheaper free agent to a one-year contract and pick a quarterback in 2015 if necessary.
Quote:Or if we reeeeeally want Manziel just take his clone Brett Smith who will be available on day 3 where his talents really fit.
Smith probably isn't coming out.
Quote:Sure.. He sat behind Tom Brady for a long time, hopefully learning.. And he's not Gabbert or Henne... That's all I got..
Why do you think three years is a long time? He has only been in the NFL as long as Blaine Gabbert.
Matt Cassel sat behind Tom Brady several years. That did not help him steal the starting job from Christian Ponder.
Quote:Why do you think three years is a long time? He has only been in the NFL as long as Blaine Gabbert.
Matt Cassel sat behind Tom Brady several years. That did not help him steal the starting job from Christian Ponder.
Because I said so. That's why..
Quote:Why did you say so?
Freedom of speech and amendments and filibusters and stuff..
Quote:But you can't deny the potential his playmaking factor brings.
Playmaking ability is one thing, but it's not the most important aspect for a QB to have. Yes, Russell Wilson can be a playmaker at QB, but even if you were to take that ability away from him, he's still a pretty darn good QB. Manziel is NOT Russell Wilson, at least I don't see it.