http://www.bucsnation.com/2013/11/14/510...draft-pick
In the past 13 years the chances of a QB panning out are literally cut in half once you get to the second half of the first round. They also drop by 20% from the top 5 to picks 6-15.
Almost everyone seems to agree that we should pick a QB if we are drafting first, but i thought this article really clarifies how rare it is to hit on a QB after the first round.
Even if we miss out on Teddy I think the clear pick is Mariota. He isnt perfect but you cant wait until a perfect prospect falls into your lap. Waiting and settling will most likely get you no where.
If the brass believe Mariota can be their guy fine, but don't take a QB just for the sake of taking one. You take the QB when you believe you've found one that you can build around. Personally from the little I've seen I don't see it in Mariota.
Quote:If the brass believe Mariota can be their guy fine, but don't take a QB just for the sake of taking one. You take the QB when you believe you've found one that you can build around. Personally from the little I've seen I don't see it in Mariota.
Caldwell isnt going to pick his QB "for the sake of taking one". Mariota has tons of potential, even though hes not a sure thing. There are many QBs just like that who pan out, and also some that dont. The point of this is to show that those who have enough potential to be drafted very high (Mariota is a lock top 10 pick) are much more likely to be a franchise QB than picking up the 2nd round scraps.
Pick a quarterback with every pick. One of them has to turn out to be a franchise QB.
Quote:Pick a quarterback with every pick. One of them has to turn out to be a franchise QB.
I disagree with you on so many levels..............
If this franchise does in fact end up with the first pick in the draft, I honestly believe they going to wait until after the combine to determine which qb is best for them.
Teddy could absolutely flop in the combine and Mariota could shine.. Seen crazier things happen..
Insightful article based upon data. It does reinforce that if a team needs a franchise level QB, the success odds favor significantly that you grab one early in the first round, if given the opportunity and the prospect grades out to that particular level or choice.
I haven't seen many people that don't think Bridgewater is the #1 quarterback. If we get the first pick, he will be a Jaguar.
I think the second spot is up for debate. But for this team, it probably won't matter.
Quote:Pick a quarterback with every pick. One of them has to turn out to be a franchise QB.
True.
FWIW, there has been at least one successful QB taken in the second half of the first round or later in 4/5 years from 2008-2012.
Quote:FWIW, there has been at least one successful QB taken in the second half of the first round or later in 4/5 years from 2008-2012.
And how many that havent been successful?
qb success doesnt depend on where hes drafted
Quote:And how many that havent been successful?
Of players who have been given a legitimate chance to start, in that time frame the successful :
Joe Flacco, Colin Kaepernick, Andy Dalton, Russell Wilson
The unsuccessful:
Chad Henne, Tim Tebow, Colt McCoy, Jimmy Clausen
Special category:
Josh Freeman
Quote:Of players who have been given a legitimate chance to start, in that time frame the successful :
Joe Flacco, Colin Kaepernick, Andy Dalton, Russell Wilson
The unsuccessful:
Chad Henne, Tim Tebow, Colt McCoy, Jimmy Clausen
Special category:
Josh Freeman
Momma sed he wuz speshul.
Quote:Of players who have been given a legitimate chance to start, in that time frame the successful :
Joe Flacco, Colin Kaepernick, Andy Dalton, Russell Wilson
The unsuccessful:
Chad Henne, Tim Tebow, Colt McCoy, Jimmy Clausen
Special category:
Josh Freeman
Legitimate chance to start? The qbs you are leaving out never deserved a chance to start. They should be counted as unsuccessful.
Quote:Legitimate chance to start? The qbs you are leaving out never deserved a chance to start. They should be counted as unsuccessful.
Guys like Ryan Mallet and Kirk Cousin haven't had a chance to play yet that's why he's leaving them out.
Quote:Guys like Ryan Mallet and Kirk Cousin haven't had a chance to play yet that's why he's leaving them out.
There are a lot more qbs....
Brian Brohm, Kevin O'Connell, John David Booty, Dennis Dixon, Colt Brennan, Pat White, Stephen McGee, Colt McCoy, Mike Kafka, John Skelton, Rusty Smith, TMD's child, and a bunch more.
the premise of the thread is qbs drafted in the first half of the first round vs the second half+2nd round. why are you guys including 3rd round and beyond qbs, even UDFAs lol
Quote:the premise of the thread is qbs drafted in the first half of the first round vs the second half+2nd round. why are you guys including 3rd round and beyond qbs, even UDFAs lol
This was more my point.