10-18-2013, 07:52 PM
What's up guys. I had a request over in my Teddy vs Rutgers Analysis to do one for Mariota against Washington. As I said in there, I am more of a Teddy guy myself but will do my best to present my findings in an unbiased way. The link to the game is here. It was pretty competitive, I got a chance to watch some West Coast football, as well as give the Oregon offense a more in-depth examination. I had fun, now let me show you what I found out.
Washington Background: Ranked #18, the Huskies weren't picked by most to win this game but they definitely kept it close for a while and were scrappy throughout. They only had one prospect go to the NFL last year, but he was a good one - Desmond Trufant, a cornerback drafted by the Falcons. I couldn't find too much information about these guys before I watched the game, so I will list here the impression I got of them during the game. Definitely an effort based defense with few stars, but very very stingy in the Red Zone. The Huskies had only 7 points scored on them in the first quarter heading into this game. A good test for Mariota, I think.
Oregon Background: This team is basically the pioneer of modern football. They run trick-plays, 2-point conversions, onside kicks, all based off of complex analytical work done beforehand that they tailor their offense to. They have a reputation for being a very fast team. This is true in some ways, as they run a lot of plays, and their players are routinely some of the fastest in the country. However, (and this surprised me) they don't just do a hurry-up offense on every snap. They wait for a big play, then when they hit one, they hurry and go again, in an effort to keep the defense off balance. Despite their bells and whistles, however, they are a run-first team. They combine speedy outside runs and options with screens and short passes, all the while setting up a deep shot for big yardage. Going into this game, Mariota was 8-0 on the road, and had the second most attempts for active Quarterbacks without throwing an interception. Oregon had scored a combined 111 points in the first quarter alone.
Here we go.
I'm going to comment a little more about the Ducks' offense before I get to Mariota's numbers. They ran a whole lotta plays - 81, by my count. Their offense usually doesn't huddle, they get their calls by looking over at the sideline. Theirs is a system-based offense that really doesn't take a lot of pre-snap reads from the Quarterback. Mariota only made calls at the line of scrimmage on 14 of those snaps - about 17%. This means that Mariota was adjusting at the line of scrimmage almost once out of every five plays. Not terrible, but definitely not at the rate of signal-callers in the NFL, or at least the rate of the offenses NFL signal-callers direct. And on top of that, more than half of these adjustments occurred during the last two minutes of the first half, indicating that he really doesn't like to call adjustments during the main of the game. This is reflective of a trend that I found while watching Mariota. He plays in a very raw fashion, with most of his game taking place between the whistles as opposed to between his ears. This is not to say that he's not a smart guy, or that he can't read the defense. He just doesn't get the opportunity to do so very often.
Time for the passing numbers breakdown (I can't remember whether I rounded down or up for the yardage rankings, but trust me I didn't change anything.)
D = Drop, * = Miscommunication, @ = Interception, $ = Touchdown
Yardage Rank Left Center Right Total with Raw Percent (%Adjusted for drops and miscommunications in parentheses)
1-5 5-6 1-1 4-5, D 83% (90%)
5-10 0-0 2-2 2-3,$ 80%, Touchdown
10-20 0-1 2-2 3-3, $ 83%, Touchdown
20+ 1-2,$,D 2-4,D 2-2 63%(83%),Touchdown
Directional Totals 6-9,$,D 7-9,D 11-13,$$,D
66%(75%) 78% 85%(92%)
His full statistics on the day were 24-31 for 366 yards and Three Touchdowns. He also ran for a touchdown and 88 yards on 12 carries, 5 of which were scrambles from the pocket. He was sacked once.
Impressive stat line. Let's dig deeper.
Let's get the guy's athleticism out of the way first. The kid has some serious jets. In this game there was a time he sprinted to one sideline, turned, and ran horizontally across the entire field, outrunning all the defenders and picking up serious yardage. When he gets through the fast-paced, short-yardage reads he is required to make, he doesn't avoid pressure by moving around the pocket - he takes off. He is the kind of athlete that can frustrate a defense, and change their gameplan easily. If the defense doesn't account for him, he will make them pay.
Now for the real meat and potatoes, his passing. First off, he has a cannon for an arm. The few times he was called to throw downfield, he did so easily, stepping off his back foot and driving the ball with velocity. On his short throws, too, he displays a nice zip on the ball when necessary, but knows how to dial it back appropriately - and that's important. We don't want a Quarterback to be drilling the halfback on a screen, and lofting a slant pass over the middle. Now, this is important. When he is tasked with throwing the ball over 10 yards, he shows very good accuracy in his statistics - 83%. His offense focuses mainly on throwing short passes, but when he goes long, it usually ends up well for the Ducks. This leads me to my next point, his potential.
When I watch Mariota, he reminds me (and I know this is a mainstream comparison) of Collin Kaepernick. He is a tall (6-4 I believe), strong guy, with wheels and an arm. He plays with a rawness that is tantalizing. He doesn't make a lot of pre-snap reads or adjustments, but his physical attributes are such that, at least on the college level, he doesn't need to. If measurables were all that were required to draft a Quarterback, this young man would be drafted number one overall. If he goes to a team that can develop him, possibly sit him for a little while to learn, the rest of the NFL better watch out. He has the tools, both as an athlete and as a Quarterback, to be one of the best in the league.
Whether he can make use of those tools is another matter, however. Like I said, the guy is raw. From what I saw, he shows little to no anticipation on his throws, with the exception of deep routes, where he has the ability to lead his receivers adequately. He makes very, very few pre-snap reads, but I don't know whether that is a product of his offense or of his mental capability, though I'm leaning toward the former. I think that a Quarterback's biggest asset is his mind, so it troubles me when I see Mariota playing all his game with out using his head. If he were in any other offense, I would suggest staying in school and developing his mental repertoire for another year. However, he would remain in this same offense where he is not asked to do the tough things that the NFL will need from him. He looks to have all the makings of a tough, and rather scrappy kid. He shows leadership and poise under pressure. It's just a matter of his mind - I don't know if he's capable of making reads, and, unfortunately, I don't think I'll be able to learn whether or not he is as long as he plays in Oregon's offense.
To me, watching Marcus Mariota is akin to watching a steamroller do its work. It's big, powerful, and can roll a lot of things over very fast. It isn't, however, very precise - because it finds no need to be. Marcus Mariota is the definition of a potential-based prospect in the NFL Draft. I really like the guy. He doesn't just have all the tools, he has the Home Depot. His potential is off the charts - but I would not pick him if my team was first on the board and needed a quarterback, with one exception. If I'm modeling my team around the Oregon-style offense, he's my man, no questions asked. But seeing as how most teams run a pro-style offense, and most teams need a surefire pick when selecting at the top of the draft, I'm gonna stick with my gut on this guy.
As of right now, he's only worth a first-round pick if you are running an Oregon-style offense. He's too risky for anything else. He could theoretically be a good consolation prize to whoever misses out on Teddy or Clowney, but he comes with a lot of risk. If he makes good on his potential, though... oh boy.
(Thanks for reading guys. If you have any critiques, feel free to post them. If you all like this, I would be happy to analyze other Quarterbacks, just post their names and the game you would like me to see.)
Washington Background: Ranked #18, the Huskies weren't picked by most to win this game but they definitely kept it close for a while and were scrappy throughout. They only had one prospect go to the NFL last year, but he was a good one - Desmond Trufant, a cornerback drafted by the Falcons. I couldn't find too much information about these guys before I watched the game, so I will list here the impression I got of them during the game. Definitely an effort based defense with few stars, but very very stingy in the Red Zone. The Huskies had only 7 points scored on them in the first quarter heading into this game. A good test for Mariota, I think.
Oregon Background: This team is basically the pioneer of modern football. They run trick-plays, 2-point conversions, onside kicks, all based off of complex analytical work done beforehand that they tailor their offense to. They have a reputation for being a very fast team. This is true in some ways, as they run a lot of plays, and their players are routinely some of the fastest in the country. However, (and this surprised me) they don't just do a hurry-up offense on every snap. They wait for a big play, then when they hit one, they hurry and go again, in an effort to keep the defense off balance. Despite their bells and whistles, however, they are a run-first team. They combine speedy outside runs and options with screens and short passes, all the while setting up a deep shot for big yardage. Going into this game, Mariota was 8-0 on the road, and had the second most attempts for active Quarterbacks without throwing an interception. Oregon had scored a combined 111 points in the first quarter alone.
Here we go.
I'm going to comment a little more about the Ducks' offense before I get to Mariota's numbers. They ran a whole lotta plays - 81, by my count. Their offense usually doesn't huddle, they get their calls by looking over at the sideline. Theirs is a system-based offense that really doesn't take a lot of pre-snap reads from the Quarterback. Mariota only made calls at the line of scrimmage on 14 of those snaps - about 17%. This means that Mariota was adjusting at the line of scrimmage almost once out of every five plays. Not terrible, but definitely not at the rate of signal-callers in the NFL, or at least the rate of the offenses NFL signal-callers direct. And on top of that, more than half of these adjustments occurred during the last two minutes of the first half, indicating that he really doesn't like to call adjustments during the main of the game. This is reflective of a trend that I found while watching Mariota. He plays in a very raw fashion, with most of his game taking place between the whistles as opposed to between his ears. This is not to say that he's not a smart guy, or that he can't read the defense. He just doesn't get the opportunity to do so very often.
Time for the passing numbers breakdown (I can't remember whether I rounded down or up for the yardage rankings, but trust me I didn't change anything.)
D = Drop, * = Miscommunication, @ = Interception, $ = Touchdown
Yardage Rank Left Center Right Total with Raw Percent (%Adjusted for drops and miscommunications in parentheses)
1-5 5-6 1-1 4-5, D 83% (90%)
5-10 0-0 2-2 2-3,$ 80%, Touchdown
10-20 0-1 2-2 3-3, $ 83%, Touchdown
20+ 1-2,$,D 2-4,D 2-2 63%(83%),Touchdown
Directional Totals 6-9,$,D 7-9,D 11-13,$$,D
66%(75%) 78% 85%(92%)
His full statistics on the day were 24-31 for 366 yards and Three Touchdowns. He also ran for a touchdown and 88 yards on 12 carries, 5 of which were scrambles from the pocket. He was sacked once.
Impressive stat line. Let's dig deeper.
Let's get the guy's athleticism out of the way first. The kid has some serious jets. In this game there was a time he sprinted to one sideline, turned, and ran horizontally across the entire field, outrunning all the defenders and picking up serious yardage. When he gets through the fast-paced, short-yardage reads he is required to make, he doesn't avoid pressure by moving around the pocket - he takes off. He is the kind of athlete that can frustrate a defense, and change their gameplan easily. If the defense doesn't account for him, he will make them pay.
Now for the real meat and potatoes, his passing. First off, he has a cannon for an arm. The few times he was called to throw downfield, he did so easily, stepping off his back foot and driving the ball with velocity. On his short throws, too, he displays a nice zip on the ball when necessary, but knows how to dial it back appropriately - and that's important. We don't want a Quarterback to be drilling the halfback on a screen, and lofting a slant pass over the middle. Now, this is important. When he is tasked with throwing the ball over 10 yards, he shows very good accuracy in his statistics - 83%. His offense focuses mainly on throwing short passes, but when he goes long, it usually ends up well for the Ducks. This leads me to my next point, his potential.
When I watch Mariota, he reminds me (and I know this is a mainstream comparison) of Collin Kaepernick. He is a tall (6-4 I believe), strong guy, with wheels and an arm. He plays with a rawness that is tantalizing. He doesn't make a lot of pre-snap reads or adjustments, but his physical attributes are such that, at least on the college level, he doesn't need to. If measurables were all that were required to draft a Quarterback, this young man would be drafted number one overall. If he goes to a team that can develop him, possibly sit him for a little while to learn, the rest of the NFL better watch out. He has the tools, both as an athlete and as a Quarterback, to be one of the best in the league.
Whether he can make use of those tools is another matter, however. Like I said, the guy is raw. From what I saw, he shows little to no anticipation on his throws, with the exception of deep routes, where he has the ability to lead his receivers adequately. He makes very, very few pre-snap reads, but I don't know whether that is a product of his offense or of his mental capability, though I'm leaning toward the former. I think that a Quarterback's biggest asset is his mind, so it troubles me when I see Mariota playing all his game with out using his head. If he were in any other offense, I would suggest staying in school and developing his mental repertoire for another year. However, he would remain in this same offense where he is not asked to do the tough things that the NFL will need from him. He looks to have all the makings of a tough, and rather scrappy kid. He shows leadership and poise under pressure. It's just a matter of his mind - I don't know if he's capable of making reads, and, unfortunately, I don't think I'll be able to learn whether or not he is as long as he plays in Oregon's offense.
To me, watching Marcus Mariota is akin to watching a steamroller do its work. It's big, powerful, and can roll a lot of things over very fast. It isn't, however, very precise - because it finds no need to be. Marcus Mariota is the definition of a potential-based prospect in the NFL Draft. I really like the guy. He doesn't just have all the tools, he has the Home Depot. His potential is off the charts - but I would not pick him if my team was first on the board and needed a quarterback, with one exception. If I'm modeling my team around the Oregon-style offense, he's my man, no questions asked. But seeing as how most teams run a pro-style offense, and most teams need a surefire pick when selecting at the top of the draft, I'm gonna stick with my gut on this guy.
As of right now, he's only worth a first-round pick if you are running an Oregon-style offense. He's too risky for anything else. He could theoretically be a good consolation prize to whoever misses out on Teddy or Clowney, but he comes with a lot of risk. If he makes good on his potential, though... oh boy.
(Thanks for reading guys. If you have any critiques, feel free to post them. If you all like this, I would be happy to analyze other Quarterbacks, just post their names and the game you would like me to see.)
