Given how much everyone in the media is so down on Blake Bortles and his horrific 3rd season, I thought it might be interesting to compare Bortles with Roethlisberger and Eli Manning in their 3rd seasons in the league.
First, let's look at Blake Bortles and his 2016 stats:
58.9% Completion Percentage
368 completions out of 625 Attempts (Note 625 Attempts)
3905 Yards Passing - 6.28 YPA
23 TDs with 16 INTs
78.8 QBR
Blake regressed from his 2015 season stats:
58.6% Completion Percentage
355 completions out of 606 Atempts
4428 Yards Passing - 7.31 YPA
35 TDs with 18 INTs
88.2 QBR
Now compare this with Eli Manning (winner of TWO Super Bowls)
in his 3rd season in the league, Eli Manning put up these stats:
57.7% Completion Percentage
301 Completions out of 522 Attempts (almost 100 attempts less than Blake in 2016)
3244 Passing Yards - 6.21 YPA
24 TDs with 18 INTs
77 QBR
In his 4th season in the league, Eli Manning put up these stats:
56.1 % Completion Percentage
297 Completions out of 529 Attempts
3336 Passing Yards - 6.31 YPA
23 TDs with 20 Ints
73.9 QBR
NOTE: The MAXIMUM Number of Pass Attempts in his CAREER has been 618 in 2015, which is less than Blake in 2016
Does Blake look any worse than Eli at this stage in his development - based purely on stats and not on specific bone headed Pick 6 plays?
Now let's look at Ben Roethlisberger (Winner of TWO Super bowls) in his 3rd season: (2006)
59.7% Completion Percentage
280 Completions out of 469 Attempts
3513 Passing Yards - 7.49 YPA
18 TDs - 23 Ints
75.4 QBR
In 2007, Big Ben started to come into his own
65.3% Completion Percentage
264 Completions out of 404 Attempts
3154 Passing Yards - 7.81 YPA
32 TDs with 11 Ints
104.1 QBR
The MAXIMUM number of Pass Attempts in his Career has been 608 in 2014, which is comparable to Blake's 2015 season
CONCLUSIONS:
Other than some bone headed plays that young QBs will do, Blake is reasonably comparable to Eli Manning at this stage in his career and not far behind Ben Roethlisberger, both of whom WON TWO Super Bowls.
Blake is throwing TOO MANY PASS ATTEMPTS, suggesting that if he had a ground game to compliment his passing game, he might be able to perform a little better.
SO, based upon this information, is it really prudent to THROW OUT THE BABY WITH THE BATH WATER just because Bortles had a BAD (REALLY, REALLY BAD) 3rd season in the league.
Clearly, Blake is the FIRST and ONLY QB to ever have a REALLY REALLY BAD 3rd Season and therefore it is TOTALLY IMPOSSIBLE for him to ever potentially lead the Jags to a winning season, much less an appearance in a Super Bowl.
OR IS IT?
One other consideration is the quarterback coach made Blake skip quarterback camp and train in Jacksonville, I believe that combined with no running game put all the pressure for team success on Blake's shoulders and as a result his mechanics regressed to compound the poor season he had. With a running game and another year improving his mechanics I believe he will not only improve but reestablish himself as our quarterback of the future. This young man has played behind a very poor offensive line riddle with injury and no running game last year and if our draft and core players improve this year it will give us a good idea if Blake is our franchise quarterback.
All of these comparisons are nice and all, but he's pretty much got this year to prove himself to be at least adequate. If not, he's gone. It's pretty simple really. I hope like hell he does because I'd really like the 'quarterback search' to be over so I can get back to enjoying going to the games, back like I did in the beginning.
Let's not forget the running games and defenses those two quarterbacks have had. Roethlisberger had Bettis to start his career and a really good defense to relieve pressure.
Manning had Tiki Barber, and everyone knows about their defense.
Bortles has had little to no run game, a poor offensive line, and although last years defense was decent, the year before they were awful.
Bortles isn't perfect, but a semi balanced offense will really help.
Quote:All of these comparisons are nice and all, but he's pretty much got this year to prove himself to be at least adequate. If not, he's gone. It's pretty simple really. I hope like hell he does because I'd really like the 'quarterback search' to be over so I can get back to enjoying going to the games, back like I did in the beginning.
So much this.
This is true. I've been saying this for 2 years. Most QBs don't hit their stride until age 27-28. The fake news media just hates the Jags and is looking for someone to blame. The QB always gets the credit or blame either way; never mind the #26 scoring defense and #27 running game. I've never seen a QB win without BOTH a running game and a good scoring defense. You can have one or the other but not both.
For example the Falcons socirng defense was #27 last year but their running game was #5.
To be honest, I'm not worried about Blake at all. The reasons you listed are a big reason why.
As others have said, poor defense and run game too. Plus horrendous coaching.
Marrone coaching
New run game
Top 10 defense
Throwing the ball around 100 times less
No bone head coaches telling him to not work on mechanics
I think Blake takes off on the trajectory we were expecting after 2015.
Lets not forget he had a shoulder injury all last season he was playing through as well yea?
Look, based on the numbers, and the wins, Blake does look bad. But how many games were lost because of other players? Missing those crucial sacks and INTs, getting those yards on the ground or rushing TDs (I'm looking at you Gerhart). Hell you could argue that both Hurns AND A-Rob regressed last season too.
With a patchwork o-line, no run, game, lack of turnovers by D, WR's dropping balls, etc. etc. etc. How can anyone realistically put all the blame on Blake?
He deserves 1 more year, and I think with the direction we are now, the additions from the draft, and the coaching staff focused on winning, we should see improvement. I'll of course, remain a guarded optimist until my eyes see the proof. But really now, can you honestly say that he doesn't deserve one more shot?
Just let Blake play like he did his last two games. That's all I want. His passes were crisp, and accurate. Maybe the light bulb in his head went off and he finally gets it.
If Blakes stats for those two games played out for the entire season, he'd have 16 TDs and no INTs, with a 65% completion rate. I'd go for that in heartbeat. That would get us to the playoffs.
Thanks for that breakdown, it's pretty interesting to see how his numbers compare. I think it's possible Blake is going to have his best year yet, maybe not statistically but in efficiency, and here's why:
1. A revamped run game with Fournette and Williams in the backfield running more power concepts is going to force teams to respect the run. Defenses won't be pinning their ears back knowing Blake is going to throw. Plus it should open up the play action more and get Blake outside of the pocket where he thrives.
2. A stronger run game should also bring Blake's attempt numbers down to a more manageable range. I'd like to see him closer to the 500 mark this year. Cutting down on the attempts should keep his arm a little healthier from a usage standpoint, and help keep his mechanics in tact.
3. Speaking of his mechanics, him not working out in California prior to last season was obviously detrimental to them. I know sometimes he can make some boneheaded decisions, but his mechanics were the main issue in 2016. With him being out in Cali this offseason, I'm looking forward to seeing a tighter, shorter throwing motion, hopefully improving his accuracy and cutting down on errant throws.
Fournett's addition alone should do wonders for Blake....
Statistically Blake is at his best when he can use play action. Fournette gives him that, and should help keep his attempts to around 30 per game instead of 50 per game. I feel he needs that to avoid the kind of arm fatigue we witnessed both in years one and three.
Fournette also gives the Jaguars a chance to close out games properly on offense...no more going up by 21 points and still losing.
Quote:All of these comparisons are nice and all, but he's pretty much got this year to prove himself to be at least adequate. If not, he's gone. It's pretty simple really. I hope like hell he does because I'd really like the 'quarterback search' to be over so I can get back to enjoying going to the games, back like I did in the beginning.
I don't think anyone would disagree that he has this year to prove himself or its game over.
I do think he gets to much flack for last year. He player bad but so did every one not named Yanick and Jalen. The coaching staff didn't do any favors for him.
You can also throw Stafford in there his first 3 or 4 years where up and down like that
Eli was awful his first 4 years
Blake still has a chance, now its up to him to put it all together
Quote:You can also throw Stafford in there his first 3 or 4 years where up and down like that
Eli was awful his first 4 years
Blake still has a chance, now its up to him to put it all together
Hell Eli threw like 27 INTs his 9th year in the league
He's got work to do--but I don't think he's a lost cause. We certainly shouldn't be calling for Chad Henne to start.
Quote:This is true. I've been saying this for 2 years. Most QBs don't hit their stride until age 27-28. The fake news media just hates the Jags and is looking for someone to blame. The QB always gets the credit or blame either way; never mind the #26 scoring defense and #27 running game. I've never seen a QB win without BOTH a running game and a good scoring defense. You can have one or the other but not both.
For example the Falcons socirng defense was #27 last year but their running game was #5.
Apparently a good portion of our own fans make up the "fake news."
Quote:All of these comparisons are nice and all, but he's pretty much got this year to prove himself to be at least adequate. If not, he's gone. It's pretty simple really. I hope like hell he does because I'd really like the 'quarterback search' to be over so I can get back to enjoying going to the games, back like I did in the beginning.
this ^
This is a very nice comparison of stats. I am not one who think BB is a franchise QB but i think he could be. The ppl saying he is awful never fully understand football or watch the games. Stats do not always tell you what is going on on the field. The good numbers he put up 2 years ago is a mirage along with Arobs Ahurns numbers. Im not saying they are not good. but look at the way the games were played. I will try and explain. In the first quarter of most games 2 years ago BB and The recievers where average at best. But by the second quarter and into the second half we where trailing by 2 TD or more and you have to look at how the defenses changed. The Defense of the oppsing teams with such a large lead laid back into a softer zone, there was very little press coverage which meant BB and the recieves put up big numbers which you all have called (Garbage Time Stats). And they did put up alot of big numbers with those soft defenses. Now move on to 2016 where i think the Jags where a much better team though yall say they where worst. They did not trail by a ton of points they were with in 1 td going deep into the 4th quarter in most of the games. There for you got tighter defenses not soft zones. so there was no easy passes or wide open recievers as before so BB struggled. I blame mainly the coaches for not recognizing this and living off his laurels of the preivious year. With a better run game this year he wont have to throw for 650 attempts and with the trip to CA maybe he will make that step. But i am in the belief in the stats given in this post that you must let a QB play more then 3 years to get the best out of them.
Quote:This is a very nice comparison of stats. I am not one who think BB is a franchise QB but i think he could be. The ppl saying he is awful never fully understand football or watch the games. Stats do not always tell you what is going on on the field. The good numbers he put up 2 years ago is a mirage along with Arobs Ahurns numbers. Im not saying they are not good. but look at the way the games were played. I will try and explain. In the first quarter of most games 2 years ago BB and The recievers where average at best. But by the second quarter and into the second half we where trailing by 2 TD or more and you have to look at how the defenses changed. The Defense of the oppsing teams with such a large lead laid back into a softer zone, there was very little press coverage which meant BB and the recieves put up big numbers which you all have called (Garbage Time Stats). And they did put up alot of big numbers with those soft defenses. Now move on to 2016 where i think the Jags where a much better team though yall say they where worst. They did not trail by a ton of points they were with in 1 td going deep into the 4th quarter in most of the games. There for you got tighter defenses not soft zones. so there was no easy passes or wide open recievers as before so BB struggled. I blame mainly the coaches for not recognizing this and living off his laurels of the preivious year. With a better run game this year he wont have to throw for 650 attempts and with the trip to CA maybe he will make that step. But i am in the belief in the stats given in this post that you must let a QB play more then 3 years to get the best out of them.
Step one, insert line breaks.
But your "down by 2tds in the second half in 2015" is actually not true at all. Most games were within one score in the 4th.
Quote:Step one, insert line breaks.
But your "down by 2tds in the second half in 2015" is actually not true at all. Most games were within one score in the 4th.
Yes because of the softer defenses we were able to score.
It is just an observation as to how the games were played.
When ppl say he did so good in 2015 and regressed in 2016, I just dont see it that way.