The 2017 season starts with solemn excitement. On the one hand, the whole country’s focus is on Houston as it recovers from the devastation wrought by Hurricane Harvey. Citizens of Houston and all of the areas adversely impacted from the storm, know that the thoughts of the nation are with you. On the other hand, football fans will finally be sated, because regular season football is here. To butcher the axiom, everyone’s a contender before the first regular season game. So let’s take a look at the first week of the regular season in the AFC South.
Jaguars (0-0) at Texans (0-0)-Expect a weary but emotional crowd in Houston as th Harvey battered Texans host the Jaguars. J.J. Watt returns from his back injury, joining a defensive unit that was staunch without him. If he is playing like pre-injury J.J. Watt, I can only shudder at the thought of how dominant that defense could be. However, that defense can be exploited. Jonathan Joseph is now 32, and decline is bound to set in sooner or later. They also lost CB A.J Bouye to the Jaguars. If the front seven does not get home, the Jaguars might have some opportunites against nickel and dime defenses. Jacksonville also has some matchup advantages they should be able to exploit. Jacksonville has one of the most talented secondaries in the league, with Ramsey (who has matched up very well against Hopkins) and the aforementioned Bouye at CB and Colvin at nickel back against a depleted Texans WR corps minus their 2nd and 3rd WRs. The Jaguars’ defensive front also seems improved with Ngakoue and fowler having more experience along with free agent addition Calais Campbell, against a Texans’ OL likely without their starting tackles from last year, including LT Duane Brown-who is holding out. Though Jaguars fans have little confidence in Bortles, they should have the edge at QB, as inexperienced Tom Savage-he of five starts) is warming the spot until Watson is ready to take over. Ultimately, I think the key matchup will be the Jaguars’ OL against the Texans’ front seven. If the Jaguars can get #4 overall pick Leonard Fournette going well enough to keep the Jaguars out of long yardage situations, the Jaguars have a chance. But that seems a doubtful proposition. Houston 20 Jaguars 14.
Oakland (0-0) at Tennessee (0-0)- In a battle of two up and coming teams with up and coming QBs who were seriously injured on week 16 of last year, the Raiders travel east to Tennessee to face the tacks. The Tacks have a strong running game and OL. But I think they will have a hard time stopping Khalil Mack. Furthermore, I don’t think the Tacks have improved enough in the secondary to have much success in covering Amari Cooper. Oakland 27 Tacks 23.
Colts (0-0) at Los Angeles Rams (0-0)-The banged up Colts travel west to face the Los Angeles Rams. The Colts will be without QB Andrew Luck, C Ryan Kelly, and CB Vontae Davis. The loss of Davis should not hurt the Colts too much against the typically anemic Rams offense, though if newly acquired Sammy Watkins is healthy, he might be able to do some damage. However, Kelly missing from an already mediocre offensive line, coupled with the loss of Luck, to be replaced by Scott Tolzien, going up against a Rams defense coached by Wade Phillips, could be problematic for the Colts, even if the Rams are without Donald. Rams win 17-13.
Last week: N/A
Overall: 0-0
Texas
Titans win against a team that typically struggles when they travel East.
Colts - coin flipped heads
Great analysis!
Jags- Because of everything you stated but with a twist. It's the Jags D that takes advantage of an O-line worse than the Jags. This will be a ball control kind of game.
Oakland- I'm one of the few that thinks the tacks overachieved last year. Make Mariota throw right!
Rams- The Colts are in bad shape right now.
Last week: N/A
Overall: 0-0
First of all, thanks for continuing the tradition Bullseye! I always enjoy reading your take.
It's the first week of the season so I'll roll the dice a bit.
Jaguars - I don't think the Texans are all that good, even with the stout defensive line that they have.
Oakland
Rams
Last week N/A
Overall 0-0
Jaguars/Texans: This one will be close, but Houston's only notable advantage is their DL. A.J. Bouye is on the opposite sideline and will play against a backup WR. Jalen Ramsye can't cover DeAndre Hopkins? We all know better than that. Calais Campbell should have no problem beating a backup tackle and Yannick Ngakoue has a year of experience behind him. A loss would not surprise me, but I see us winning it late.
Raiders/Titans. Not even close. If Corey Davis, Eric Decker, and Amoree' Jackson are limited or out (they were all injured during preseason) the Titans are in trouble. Oakland has the NFL's best offensive line (sorry Cowboys), healthy starting WRs, one of the NFL's best QBs, and one of the best pass rushers. Tennessee will not benefit from the time difference as it is only 2 hours and Oakland simply has way too much talent to lose on the road.
Colts/Rams: If Andrew Luck was playing, this would be an easy one. I think it will be close in favor of the Rams, who have Andrew Whitworth, Sammy Watkins, Wade Phillips, and an easier-to-learn offense for Jared Goff.
I'll go Jags. I think Houston's situation is more difficult than people admit. Their QB isn't special, and their offensive line isn't good. They'll be getting a lot of one yard carries in this game and be facing a lot of third and long situations. Not that the Jaguars might not also have that problem, but if Fournette was actually worthy of the number four pick this is a game the Jaguars should be able to win.
Also the raiders and Rams.
Titans aren't a great team, raiders might be one. Colts are tanking another season, guess they must see Lucks replacement in their crystal ball.
(09-04-2017, 01:46 PM)JagFanatic24 Wrote: [ -> ]Luck out for Rams game
So are Kelly and Davis.
GO RAMS
(09-04-2017, 01:58 PM)SeldomRite Wrote: [ -> ]I'll go Jags. I think Houston's situation is more difficult than people admit. Their QB isn't special, and their offensive line isn't good. They'll be getting a lot of one yard carries in this game and be facing a lot of third and long situations. Not that the Jaguars might not also have that problem, but if Fournette was actually worthy of the number four pick this is a game the Jaguars should be able to win.
Also the Raiders and Rams.
Titans aren't a great team, raiders might be one. Colts are tanking another season, guess they must see Luck's replacement in their crystal ball.
LOL at Colts tanking. Total nonsense - they hired a new GM who is overhauling the defense. But they can't win without #12.
Third and long situations will be created by Houston's DL, not our OL. There is a reason Leonard Fournette was universally named a top five pick.
(09-04-2017, 01:15 PM)jagibelieve Wrote: [ -> ]First of all, thanks for continuing the tradition Bullseye! I always enjoy reading your take.
It's the first week of the season so I'll roll the dice a bit.
Jaguars - I don't think the Texans are all that good, even with the stout defensive line that they have.
Oakland
Rams
Last week N/A
Overall 0-0
Thank you, JIB.
I think defensively, they are that good. That front 7 can control many games. It is reminiscent of those Ryan era Eagles defenses.
Right now, the rest of that team can be exploited though. Unlike the Ryan era Eagles, they don't have the dynamic QB-at least not yet. Their RBs are banged up, and their OL is almost as big a disaster as the rest of the city. Are we team enough to exploit that? If so, then we might have a chance to finally beat these guys.
It will be interesting to see how they counteract all of these things?
With an inexperienced QB and them shuffling their tackles, do they go 2 TEs the whole game?
How often do they go 3-4 WR sets when they are missing their 2nd and 3rd WRs? If they employ these formations, it seems to me they make our secondary stronger because they are putting inferior players against our position of strength..unless they are much deeper at WR than anyone reasonably imagines.
Just saw on NFLNetwork, Duane Brown was at a BBQ in Houston, saying he is definitely playing football this year.
Does that mean he has ended his holdout?
Will he play on Sunday? If so, what kind of condition will he be in?
(09-04-2017, 03:02 PM)Bullseye Wrote: [ -> ] (09-04-2017, 01:15 PM)jagibelieve Wrote: [ -> ]First of all, thanks for continuing the tradition Bullseye! I always enjoy reading your take.
It's the first week of the season so I'll roll the dice a bit.
Jaguars - I don't think the Texans are all that good, even with the stout defensive line that they have.
Oakland
Rams
Last week N/A
Overall 0-0
Thank you, JIB.
I think defensively, they are that good. That front 7 can control many games. It is reminiscent of those Ryan era Eagles defenses.
Right now, the rest of that team can be exploited though. Unlike the Ryan era Eagles, they don't have the dynamic QB-at least not yet. Their RBs are banged up, and their OL is almost as big a disaster as the rest of the city. Are we team enough to exploit that? If so, then we might have a chance to finally beat these guys.
It will be interesting to see how they counteract all of these things?
With an inexperienced QB and them shuffling their tackles, do they go 2 TEs the whole game?
How often do they go 3-4 WR sets when they are missing their 2nd and 3rd WRs? If they employ these formations, it seems to me they make our secondary stronger because they are putting inferior players against our position of strength..unless they are much deeper at WR than anyone reasonably imagines.
Just saw on NFLNetwork, Duane Brown was at a BBQ in Houston, saying he is definitely playing football this year.
Does that mean he has ended his holdout?
Will he play on Sunday? If so, what kind of condition will he be in?
He likely means either when they pay him, or he has to show up to accrue the season. If he sits out the whole year they keep his rights, but if he shows up in week 7, or whenever it is he's really required to, he'll be one year closer to free agency, and with the state of tackle play around the NFL, he might just get another contract if his medicals are okay.
(09-04-2017, 03:02 PM)Bullseye Wrote: [ -> ] (09-04-2017, 01:15 PM)jagibelieve Wrote: [ -> ]First of all, thanks for continuing the tradition Bullseye! I always enjoy reading your take.
It's the first week of the season so I'll roll the dice a bit.
Jaguars - I don't think the Texans are all that good, even with the stout defensive line that they have.
Oakland
Rams
Last week N/A
Overall 0-0
Thank you, JIB.
I think defensively, they are that good. That front 7 can control many games. It is reminiscent of those Ryan era Eagles defenses.
Right now, the rest of that team can be exploited though. Unlike the Ryan era Eagles, they don't have the dynamic QB-at least not yet. Their RBs are banged up, and their OL is almost as big a disaster as the rest of the city. Are we team enough to exploit that? If so, then we might have a chance to finally beat these guys.
It will be interesting to see how they counteract all of these things?
With an inexperienced QB and them shuffling their tackles, do they go 2 TEs the whole game?
How often do they go 3-4 WR sets when they are missing their 2nd and 3rd WRs? If they employ these formations, it seems to me they make our secondary stronger because they are putting inferior players against our position of strength..unless they are much deeper at WR than anyone reasonably imagines.
Just saw on NFLNetwork, Duane Brown was at a BBQ in Houston, saying he is definitely playing football this year.
Does that mean he has ended his holdout?
Will he play on Sunday? If so, what kind of condition will he be in?
I have been "bitten" several times in the past thinking that Houston would be a divisional champion contender. I agree that they do have arguably the best front 7 on their defense, but I don't see that as being enough.
Their offense just isn't good enough to put points on the board and/or keep their defense fresh and off the field.
The same could be said about the Jaguars, though the difference is having a QB with some experience, and better talent (on paper) at skill positions on offense around him which could really be the deciding factor. I'm not a big fan of Blake Bortles, but I do think that he is better than Tom Savage. Look at the rest of the skill players on each team's offense and it's not even close (my opinion).
On defense, the Jaguars (on paper) have a defense that can dominate the Texan's offense.
(09-04-2017, 03:51 PM)SeldomRite Wrote: [ -> ] (09-04-2017, 03:02 PM)Bullseye Wrote: [ -> ]Thank you, JIB.
I think defensively, they are that good. That front 7 can control many games. It is reminiscent of those Ryan era Eagles defenses.
Right now, the rest of that team can be exploited though. Unlike the Ryan era Eagles, they don't have the dynamic QB-at least not yet. Their RBs are banged up, and their OL is almost as big a disaster as the rest of the city. Are we team enough to exploit that? If so, then we might have a chance to finally beat these guys.
It will be interesting to see how they counteract all of these things?
With an inexperienced QB and them shuffling their tackles, do they go 2 TEs the whole game?
How often do they go 3-4 WR sets when they are missing their 2nd and 3rd WRs? If they employ these formations, it seems to me they make our secondary stronger because they are putting inferior players against our position of strength..unless they are much deeper at WR than anyone reasonably imagines.
Just saw on NFLNetwork, Duane Brown was at a BBQ in Houston, saying he is definitely playing football this year.
Does that mean he has ended his holdout?
Will he play on Sunday? If so, what kind of condition will he be in?
He likely means either when they pay him, or he has to show up to accrue the season. If he sits out the whole year they keep his rights, but if he shows up in week 7, or whenever it is he's really required to, he'll be one year closer to free agency, and with the state of tackle play around the NFL, he might just get another contract if his medicals are okay.
Fine by me! Let him hold out as long as possible.
(09-04-2017, 04:01 PM)jagibelieve Wrote: [ -> ] (09-04-2017, 03:02 PM)Bullseye Wrote: [ -> ]Thank you, JIB.
I think defensively, they are that good. That front 7 can control many games. It is reminiscent of those Ryan era Eagles defenses.
Right now, the rest of that team can be exploited though. Unlike the Ryan era Eagles, they don't have the dynamic QB-at least not yet. Their RBs are banged up, and their OL is almost as big a disaster as the rest of the city. Are we team enough to exploit that? If so, then we might have a chance to finally beat these guys.
It will be interesting to see how they counteract all of these things?
With an inexperienced QB and them shuffling their tackles, do they go 2 TEs the whole game?
How often do they go 3-4 WR sets when they are missing their 2nd and 3rd WRs? If they employ these formations, it seems to me they make our secondary stronger because they are putting inferior players against our position of strength..unless they are much deeper at WR than anyone reasonably imagines.
Just saw on NFLNetwork, Duane Brown was at a BBQ in Houston, saying he is definitely playing football this year.
Does that mean he has ended his holdout?
Will he play on Sunday? If so, what kind of condition will he be in?
I have been "bitten" several times in the past thinking that Houston would be a divisional champion contender. I agree that they do have arguably the best front 7 on their defense, but I don't see that as being enough.
Their offense just isn't good enough to put points on the board and/or keep their defense fresh and off the field.
The same could be said about the Jaguars, though the difference is having a QB with some experience, and better talent (on paper) at skill positions on offense around him which could really be the deciding factor. I'm not a big fan of Blake Bortles, but I do think that he is better than Tom Savage. Look at the rest of the skill players on each team's offense and it's not even close (my opinion).
On defense, the Jaguars (on paper) have a defense that can dominate the Texan's offense.
The fact they've won the division the past couple of years speaks to how bad the division was, as much as its a testament to their defense.
But...
I think if we have better coaching (we do), we'll have a better chance to win against them than we've had in the past.
I think if we have a better OL (we do with Cam), we'll have a better chance to win against them than we've had in the past.
I think if we have a better RB (we do), we'll have a better chance to win against them than we've had in the past.
I think if we have a better defense (we do), we'll have a better chance to win against them than we've had in the past.
I think if we have better special teams (we do with Joe DeCamillis), we'll have a better chance to win against them than we've had in the past.
Can we avoid and force the killer turnovers? That's the question.
(09-04-2017, 04:12 PM)Bullseye Wrote: [ -> ] (09-04-2017, 04:01 PM)jagibelieve Wrote: [ -> ]I have been "bitten" several times in the past thinking that Houston would be a divisional champion contender. I agree that they do have arguably the best front 7 on their defense, but I don't see that as being enough.
Their offense just isn't good enough to put points on the board and/or keep their defense fresh and off the field.
The same could be said about the Jaguars, though the difference is having a QB with some experience, and better talent (on paper) at skill positions on offense around him which could really be the deciding factor. I'm not a big fan of Blake Bortles, but I do think that he is better than Tom Savage. Look at the rest of the skill players on each team's offense and it's not even close (my opinion).
On defense, the Jaguars (on paper) have a defense that can dominate the Texan's offense.
The fact they've won the division the past couple of years speaks to how bad the division was, as much as its a testament to their defense.
But...
I think if we have better coaching (we do), we'll have a better chance to win against them than we've had in the past.
I think if we have a better OL (we do with Cam), we'll have a better chance to win against them than we've had in the past.
I think if we have a better RB (we do), we'll have a better chance to win against them than we've had in the past.
I think if we have a better defense (we do), we'll have a better chance to win against them than we've had in the past.
I think if we have better special teams (we do with Joe DeCamillis), we'll have a better chance to win against them than we've had in the past.
Can we avoid and force the killer turnovers? That's the question.
Which is why Fournette has to be "top 5 pick RB GOOD." If he can get 4+ YPC and not fumble against the texans on 20+ carries then the Jaguars probably win the game. If Fournette plays like Just Another Guy and turns out to be as bad of a pick as I thought it was when it was announced then the Jaguars have another losing season including dropping games against teams like the texans that don't have much of a functioning offense.
(09-04-2017, 04:17 PM)SeldomRite Wrote: [ -> ]Which is why Fournette has to be "top 5 pick RB GOOD." If he can get 4+ YPC and not fumble against the texans on 20+ carries then the Jaguars probably win the game. If Fournette plays like Just Another Guy and turns out to be as bad of a pick as I thought it was when it was announced then the Jaguars have another losing season including dropping games against teams like the texans that don't have much of a functioning offense.
You have the right username because every single draft analyst projected Leonard Fournette as a lock to be a top five pick. He was injured during the preseason, but not bad enough for anyone to worry about it affecting him long-term. Why would you hate the pick?
(09-04-2017, 04:17 PM)SeldomRite Wrote: [ -> ] (09-04-2017, 04:12 PM)Bullseye Wrote: [ -> ]The fact they've won the division the past couple of years speaks to how bad the division was, as much as its a testament to their defense.
But...
I think if we have better coaching (we do), we'll have a better chance to win against them than we've had in the past.
I think if we have a better OL (we do with Cam), we'll have a better chance to win against them than we've had in the past.
I think if we have a better RB (we do), we'll have a better chance to win against them than we've had in the past.
I think if we have a better defense (we do), we'll have a better chance to win against them than we've had in the past.
I think if we have better special teams (we do with Joe DeCamillis), we'll have a better chance to win against them than we've had in the past.
Can we avoid and force the killer turnovers? That's the question.
Which is why Fournette has to be "top 5 pick RB GOOD." If he can get 4+ YPC and not fumble against the texans on 20+ carries then the Jaguars probably win the game. If Fournette plays like Just Another Guy and turns out to be as bad of a pick as I thought it was when it was announced then the Jaguars have another losing season including dropping games against teams like the texans that don't have much of a functioning offense.
I agree with you that if Fournette can average more than 4 ypc and get over 20 carries then the Jaguars should win the game against the Texans. I am not sure that happens against such a strong defense, especially with our OL.
That said, I wouldn't draw too many conclusions about Fournette's long term prospects if he does not have a good forst game. There have been plenty of good to great backs who did not have a good first game but went on to have good to great careers.
I know Emmitt Smith had two yards rushing in his first game in his rookie year, eleven yards rushing his second game that same year and went 17-63 his 3rd game.
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/t...l/1990.htm
Walter Payton was the NFL's all time leading rusher before Emmitt Smith broke his record. But he had ZERO yards rushing on eight carries in his first game.
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/t...i/1975.htm
I know I am spitting into the wind here, but I urge people to not panic if Fournette does not have a big game against the Texans' formidable front seven.
(09-04-2017, 04:12 PM)Bullseye Wrote: [ -> ] (09-04-2017, 04:01 PM)jagibelieve Wrote: [ -> ]I have been "bitten" several times in the past thinking that Houston would be a divisional champion contender. I agree that they do have arguably the best front 7 on their defense, but I don't see that as being enough.
Their offense just isn't good enough to put points on the board and/or keep their defense fresh and off the field.
The same could be said about the Jaguars, though the difference is having a QB with some experience, and better talent (on paper) at skill positions on offense around him which could really be the deciding factor. I'm not a big fan of Blake Bortles, but I do think that he is better than Tom Savage. Look at the rest of the skill players on each team's offense and it's not even close (my opinion).
On defense, the Jaguars (on paper) have a defense that can dominate the Texan's offense.
The fact they've won the division the past couple of years speaks to how bad the division was, as much as its a testament to their defense.
But...
I think if we have better coaching (we do), we'll have a better chance to win against them than we've had in the past.
Nothing is proven yet. On paper we have better coaching this season, but we haven't seen a single game yet.
I think if we have a better OL (we do with Cam), we'll have a better chance to win against them than we've had in the past.
Better OL? Perhaps better than last season, at least on paper. We need to see how they play when it really counts.
I think if we have a better RB (we do), we'll have a better chance to win against them than we've had in the past.
Once again. Better? That remains to be seen. While I have every bit of hope that Fournette will become a star in the league, it remains to be seen. Meanwhile we still have Ivory and Yeldon behind him.
I think if we have a better defense (we do), we'll have a better chance to win against them than we've had in the past.
Better? At this point on paper, yes the defense is better. How it translates to on the field play has yet to be seen.
I think if we have better special teams (we do with Joe DeCamillis), we'll have a better chance to win against them than we've had in the past.
Better? Kicking and coverage need to be better. I haven't seen anything that makes me think that this unit better at all.
Can we avoid and force the killer turnovers? That's the question.
Overall good comments and analysis, and my responses to those are posted in red in my quote of what you posted.
Regarding your last comment, I think that's what is going to ultimately decide the game.
JIB, "better than last year" is exactly what Bullseye meant. That was pretty clear to me. Obviously we can't judge the OL based on its performance against the NFL's best DL but Cam Robinson is known to be a better run blocker than Kelvin Beachum and before him, Luke Joeckel. So there is a reason to be optimistic about our long-term success there. Of course it is not logical to make any assumptions at this point. I get it. But it is safe to say our OL is not going to win its battles against Houston's DL because we know what those guys can do. For the purpose of this thread, that is all I am worried about.